Child pedestrian safety is one of the biggest safety issues regarding planning of a well arranged urban traffic. The fact that vulnerable road users suffer most from traffic incidents also raises concern for children. Children need special care while considering traffic safety. The factors are various that they differ from adults by many aspects. For their physically smaller size, immature ability to judge the traffic situations, lack of experience about traffic and mental deficiencies like losing concentration after short periods, they are much more susceptible to the traffic hazards than adults. Various studies have been carried and many applications regarding child and school pedestrian safety worldwide and the most hazardous periods were found as afternoon hours. Age factor generally is flexible but as the child grows older, mobility increases and risks become larger. The risk factors also include the social and economical environment that children living in good life standards suffer less than those are not. Education is also crucial on adopting the sense of road safety on children’s perspective. Simulation based studies have proved to be effective in order to draw child’s attention to the subject, however it should be combined with field trips to gain a more realistic and solid idea about the matter. Besides, engineering measures rise up as another milestone where roadside and land use planning is important. Traffic calming measures have proved to be effective to warn road users and thus form a safer traffic environment for children. Special applications for school zones such as flashing lights, narrowed crossways or 30km/h areas have been effective. The case study concerns the evaluation of child pedestrian safety in the vicinities of various accidents previously happened in Norrköping. Two methods were used to examine the degree of safety for the places of incidents. For locations near an intersection, road safety audit and traffic conflicts technique were applied, while, for the incident points along streets, only road safety audit technique was used. It is stated that, because of the multivariable aspect of the problem, collective application of various safety evaluation solutions would give better idea on the risk of the location and possible improvements for the future.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Traffic accidents cause millions of injuries and tens of thousands of fatalities per year worldwide. This thesis briefly reviews different types of active safety systems designed to reduce the number of accidents. Focusing on lane departure, a leading cause of crashes involving fatalities, we examine a lane-keeping system proposed by Minoiu Enache et al.They proposed a switched linear feedback (LMI) controller and provided two switching laws, which limit driver torque and displacement of the front wheels from the center of the lane. In this thesis, a state feedback (LQR) controller has been designed. Also, a new switching logic has been proposed which is based on driver's torque, lateral offset of the vehicle from the center of the lane and relative yaw angle. The controller activates assistance torque when the driver is deemed inattentive. It is deactivated when the driver regains control. Matlab/Simulink modeling and simulation environment is used to verify the results of the controller. In comparison to the earlier switching strategies, the maximum values of the state variables lie very close to the set of bounds for normal driving zone. Also, analysis of the controller’s root locus shows an improvement in the damping factor, implying better system response.

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Bioethics and Health Law Johannesburg, 2019 / Road traffic injuries and deaths (RTID) are a global public health crisis affecting the ethically charged road traffic system, and disproportionately affect the poor. By world standards South Africa has extremely high crash rates and in many respects is failing to apply road safety best practice, despite being a signatory to the UN Decade of Action for Road Safety 20112020. In the economic hub of Johannesburg the minibus taxi industry (MTI) is a dominant mode of paratransit (informal public transport) which offers flexible and affordable services and helps reduce the social divide caused by the lingering spatial realities of apartheid. It is also a source of economic empowerment and much-needed jobs – however, as with paratransit systems elsewhere, unsafe driving is common and many of the taxis are elderly or defective. Frequent MTI crashes contribute to Johannesburg’s road deaths being more than triple the international city average. Members of the public tend to vilify MTI drivers and ascribe a high degree of moral responsibility to them, but this intuitive reasoning seems to disregard their work conditions and how these affect their driving behavior. It also fails to take into account the South African road safety status quo and the possibility that MTI drivers are akin to an indicator species in relation to the ills of our road traffic system. Prevailing views of road safety are shaped by the Vision Zero philosophy and the Safe System approach, which assign responsibilities both to road users and to system designers. In line with this, my study addresses the question of what moral responsibilities should be ascribed, and to whom, in relation to reducing RTID in the Johannesburg MTI. I answer this bioethical question by means of a dual descriptive-normative inquiry. My descriptive inquiry is based on my mixed-methods empirical research with drivers, aimed at addressing the dearth of knowledge of their work conditions and tapping their views on crash causation and road safety responsibilities. My results, viewed against the backdrop of road safety best practice, lead me to label the operating principles of the Johannesburg MTI ‘contra-constitutional’ due to their violating the drivers’ labour rights as well as the human rights of drivers, passengers and other road users alike. I also analyse the South African road safety situation with regards to road safety best practice and comparative information from three groups of reference countries: the BRICS, our African neighbours (and two other African countries with similar paratransit), and several aspirational countries with very low RTID. This analysis leads me to develop the term ‘crashogenic’ to describe our road traffic system. My normative inquiry draws on arguments which have been made by other authors focusing on moral considerations in relation to road safety. It applies Nihlen Falquist’s moral responsibility ascription framework – developed with regards to Sweden’s Vision Zero policy – in a novel fashion, employing graphical representation in addition to narrative reasoning. Thus, I use her three categories of blame responsibility, causal responsibility and forwardlooking responsibility and ascribe specific moral responsibilities to identified rolepayers, with a view to reducing RTID in the Johannesburg MTI. My study makes an original contribution to the bioethical debate on road safety, with a unique South African perspective. It also extends the existing knowledge base regarding drivers’ work conditions in paratransit systems. / MT 2019

A high percentage of highway crashes in the United States occur at intersections. These crashes result in property damage, lost productivity, injury, and even death. Identifying intersections associated with high crash rate is very important to minimize future crashes. The purpose of this study is to develop efficient means to evaluate intersections, which may require safety improvements. The area covered by the analysis in this thesis includes Orange and Seminole Counties and the City of Orlando. The aforementioned counties and city thus represent Central Florida. Each County/City provided data that consisted of signalized intersection drawings that were either in the form of electronic or hard copies, the county's extensive crash database and a list of intersections that underwent modifications during the study period. A total of 786 intersections were used in the analysis and the crash database was made up of 4271 crashes. From the signalized intersection drawings obtained from the county's traffic engineering department, a geometry database was created to classify all intersections by the number of through lanes, number of left turning lanes, Average Annual Daily Traffic and Posted Speed limits on the Major road of the intersection. In this research, crashes and their type, e.g., rear-end, left-turn and angle as well as total crashes were investigated. Numerous models were developed first using the Poisson regression and then using the Negative Binomial approach as the data showed overdispersion. The modeling process aimed to relate geometric and traffic factors to the frequency of crashes at intersections. Expected value analysis tables were also developed to determine if an intersection had an abnormally high number of crashes. These tables can be used in assisting Traffic Engineers in identifying serious safety problems at intersections. The general models illustrated that rear-end crashes were associated with high natural logarithm of AADT on the major road and the number of lanes (major intersections, e.g. 6x4/6x6), whereas AADT on the major road did not affect left-turn crashes. Intersections with the configuration 4x2/6x2 (2 through lanes at the minor roadway) or T intersections as another category experienced an increase in left-turn crashes. Angle crashes were most frequent at one-way intersections especially in the case of 4x4 intersections. Individual models that included interaction terms with one variable at a time concluded that AADT on the major road positively influenced rear-end crashes more compared to angle and left-turn crashes. As the speed increases on the minor road, the left turn crashes are affected more when compared to angle and rear-end crashes, therefore it can be concluded that left-turn crashes are most influenced by the speed limit on the minor road compared to angle crashes and then followed by rear-end crashes. As the total number of left turn lanes increased at the intersection, thereby increasing the size of the intersection, the number of rear-end crashes increased. An overall model that contained natural logarithm of AADT on major road, total number of left turn lanes at the intersection, number of through lanes on the minor road and configuration of the intersection, as independent variables, along with interaction terms, further concluded and supported the individual models that the number of crashes (rear-end, left-turn and angle) increased as the AADT on the major road increased and the number of crashes decreased as the total number of left turn lanes at the intersection increased. Also, crashes increased as the number of through lanes on the minor road increased. The variables' interaction effects with dummies representing rear-end and left-turn crashes in the final model showed that as the AADT on the major road increased, the number of rear-end crashes increased compared to left-turn and angle crashes and also that as the total number of left turn lanes at the intersection increased, the number of left-turn crashes decreased when compared to rear-end and angle crashes. Also the number of rear-end crashes increased at major four leg intersections e.g. 6x4, 6x6 etc. This thesis demonstrated the superiority of Negative Binomial regression in modeling the frequency of crashes at signalized intersections.

In an age of data explosion, almost every aspect of social activities is impacted by the abundance of information. The information, characterized by alarming volume, velocity and variety, is often referred to as "Big Data". As one fundamental elements of human life, transportation also confronts the promises and challenges brought about by the Big Data era. Big Data in the transportation arena, enabled by the rapid popularization of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) in the past few decades, are often collected continuously from different sources over vast geographical scale. Huge in size and rich in information, the seemingly disorganized data could considerably enhance experts' understanding of their system. In addition, proactive traffic management for better system performance is made possible due to the real-time nature of the Big Data in transportation. Operation efficiency and traffic safety have long been deemed as priorities among highway system performance measurement. While efficiency could be evaluated in terms of traffic congestion, safety is studied through crash analysis. Extensive works have been conducted to identify the contributing factors and remedies of traffic congestion and crashes. These studies lead to gathering consensus that operation and safety have played as two sides of a coin, ameliorating either would have a positive effect on the other. With the advancement of Big Data, monitoring and improvement of both operation and safety proactively in real-time have become an urgent call. In this study, the urban expressway network operated by Central Florida Expressway Authority's (CFX) traffic safety and efficiency was investigated. The expressway system is equipped with multiple Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). CFX utilizes Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) system for Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) as well as for the provision of real-time information. Recently, the authority introduced Microwave Vehicle Detection System (MVDS) on their expressways for more precise traffic monitoring. These traffic detection systems collect different types of traffic data continuously on the 109-mile expressway network, making them one of the sources of Big Data. In addition, multiple Dynamic Message Signs are currently in use to communicate between CFX and motorists. Due to their dynamic nature, they serve as an ideal tool for efficiency and safety improvement. Careful examination of the Big Data from the ITS traffic detection systems was carried out. Based on the characteristics of the data, three types of congestion measures based on the AVI and MVDS system were proposed for efficiency evaluation. MVDS-based congestion measures were found to be better at capturing the subtle changes in congestion in real-time compared with the AVI-based congestion measure. Moreover, considering the high deployment density of the MVDS system, the whole expressway network is well covered. Thus congestion could be evaluated at the microscopic level in both spatial and temporal dimensions. According to the proposed congestion measurement, both mainline congested segments and ramps experiencing congestion were identified. For congestion alleviation, the existing DMS that could be utilized for queue warning were located. In case of no existing DMS available upstream to the congestion area, the potential area where future DMS could be considered was suggested. Substantial efforts have also been dedicated to Big Data applications in safety evaluation and improvement. Both aggregate crash frequency modeling and disaggregate real-time crash prediction were constructed to explore the use of ITS detection data for urban expressway safety analyses. The safety analyses placed an emphasis on the congestion's effects on the Expressway traffic safety. In the aggregate analysis the three congestion measures developed in this research were tested in the context of safety modeling and their performances compared. Multi-level Bayesian ridge regression was utilized to deal with the multicollinearity issue in the modeling process. While all of the congestion measures indicated congestion was a contributing factor to crash occurrence in the peak hours, they suggested that off-peak hour crashes might be caused by factors other than congestion. Geometric elements such as the horizontal curves and existence of auxiliary lanes were also identified to significantly affect the crash frequencies on the studied expressways. In the disaggregate analysis, rear-end crashes were specifically studied since their occurrence was believed to be significantly related to the traffic flow conditions. The analysis was conducted in Bayesian logistic regression framework. The framework achieved relatively good classifier performance. Conclusions confirmed the significant effects of peak hour congestion on crash likelihood. Moreover, a further step was taken to incorporate reliability analysis into the safety evaluation. With the developed logistic model as a system function indicating the safety states under specific traffic conditions, this method has the advantage that could quantitatively determine the traffic states appropriate to trigger safety warning to motorists. Results from reliability analysis also demonstrate the peak hours as high risk time for rear-end crashes. Again, DMS would be an essential tool to carry the messages to drivers for potential safety benefits. In existing safety studies, the ITS traffic data were normally used in aggregated format or only the pre-crash traffic data were used for real-time prediction. However, to fully realize their applications, this research also explored their use from a post-crash perspective. The real-time traffic states immediately before and after crash occurrence were extracted to identify whether the crash caused traffic deterioration. Elements regarding spatial, temporal, weather and crash characteristics from individual crash reports were adopted to analyze under what conditions a crash could significantly worsen traffic conditions on urban expressways. Multinomial logit model and two separate binomial models were adopted to identify each element's effects. Expected contribution of this work is to shorten the reaction and clearance time to those crashes that might cause delay on expressways, thus reducing congestion and probability of secondary crashes simultaneously. Finally, potential relevant applications beyond the scope of this research but worth investigation in the future were proposed.

The weather condition is a crucial influence factor on road safety issues. Fog is one of the most noticeable weather conditions, which has a significant impact on traffic safety. Such condition reduces the road's visibility and consequently can affect drivers' vision, perception, and judgments. The statistical data shows that many crashes are directly or indirectly caused by the low-visibility weather condition. Hence, it is necessary for road traffic engineers to study the relationship of road traffic accidents and their influence factors. Among these factors, the traffic volume and the speed limits in poor visibility areas are the primary reasons that can affect the types and occurring locations of road accidents. In this thesis, microscopic traffic simulation, through the use of VISSIM software, was used to study the road safety issue and its influencing factors due to limited visibility. A basic simulation model was built based on previously collected field data to simulate Interstate 4 (I-4)'s environment, geometry characteristics, and the basic traffic volume composition conditions. On the foundation of the basic simulation model, an experimental model was built to study the conflicts' types and distribution places under several different scenarios. Taking into consideration the entire 4-mile study area on I-4, this area was divided into 3 segments: section 1 with clear visibility, fog area of low visibility, and section 2 with clear visibility. Lower speed limits in the fog area, which were less than the limits in no-fog areas, were set to investigate the different speed limits' influence on the two main types of traffic conflicts: lane-change conflicts and rear-end conflicts. The experimental model generated several groups of traffic trajectory data files. The vehicle conflicts data were stored in these trajectory data files which, contains the conflict locations' coordinates, conflict time, time-to-conflict, and post-encroachment-time among other measures. The Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM), developed by the Federal Highway Administration, was applied to analyze these conflict data. From the analysis results, it is found that the traffic volume is an important factor, which has a large effect on the number of conflicts. The number of lane-change and rear-end conflicts increases along with the traffic volume growth. Another finding is that the difference between the speed limits in the fog area and in the no-fog areas is another significant factor that impacts the conflicts' frequency. Larger difference between the speed limits in two nearing road sections always leads to more accidents due to the inadequate reaction time for vehicle drivers to brake in time. And comparing to the scenarios that with the reduced speed limits in the low visibility zone, the condition that without the reduced speed limit has higher conflict number, which indicates that the it is necessary to put a lower speed limit in the fog zone which has a lower visibility. The results of this research have a certain reference value for studying the relationship between the road traffic conflicts and the impacts of different speed limits under fog condition. Overall, the findings of this research suggest follow up studies to further investigate possible relationships between conflicts as observed by simulation models and reported crashes in fog areas.

This study is concerned with the safety risk of reduced visibility on roadways. Inclement weather events such as fog/smoke (FS), heavy rain (HR), high winds, etc, do affect every road by impacting pavement conditions, vehicle performance, visibility distance, and drivers’ behavior. Moreover, they affect travel demand, traffic safety, and traffic flow characteristics. Visibility in particular is critical to the task of driving and reduction in visibility due FS or other weather events such as HR is a major factor that affects safety and proper traffic operation. A real-time measurement of visibility and understanding drivers’ responses, when the visibility falls below certain acceptable level, may be helpful in reducing the chances of visibility-related crashes. In this regard, one way to improve safety under reduced visibility conditions (i.e., reduce the risk of visibility related crashes) is to improve drivers’ behavior under such adverse weather conditions. Therefore, one of objectives of this research was to investigate the factors affecting drivers’ stated behavior in adverse visibility conditions, and examine whether drivers rely on and follow advisory or warning messages displayed on portable changeable message signs (CMS) and/or variable speed limit (VSL) signs in different visibility, traffic conditions, and on two types of roadways; freeways and two-lane roads. The data used for the analyses were obtained from a self-reported questionnaire survey carried out among 566 drivers in Central Florida, USA. Several categorical data analysis techniques such as conditional distribution, odds’ ratio, and Chi-Square tests were applied. In addition, two modeling approaches; bivariate and multivariate probit models were estimated. The results revealed that gender, age, road type, visibility condition, and familiarity with VSL signs were the significant factors affecting the likelihood of reducing speed following CMS/VSL instructions in reduced visibility conditions. Other objectives of this survey study were to determine the content of messages that iv would achieve the best perceived safety and drivers’ compliance and to examine the best way to improve safety during these adverse visibility conditions. The results indicated that "Caution-fog ahead-reduce speed" was the best message and using CMS and VSL signs together was the best way to improve safety during such inclement weather situations. In addition, this research aimed to thoroughly examine drivers’ responses under low visibility conditions and quantify the impacts and values of various factors found to be related to drivers’ compliance and drivers’ satisfaction with VSL and CMS instructions in different visibility and traffic conditions. To achieve these goals, Explanatory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) approaches were adopted. The results revealed that drivers’ satisfaction with VSL/CMS was the most significant factor that positively affected drivers’ compliance with advice or warning messages displayed on VSL/CMS signs under different fog conditions followed by driver factors. Moreover, it was found that roadway type affected drivers’ compliance to VSL instructions under medium and heavy fog conditions. Furthermore, drivers’ familiarity with VSL signs and driver factors were the significant factors affecting drivers’ satisfaction with VSL/CMS advice under reduced visibility conditions. Based on the findings of the survey-based study, several recommendations are suggested as guidelines to improve drivers’ behavior in such reduced visibility conditions by enhancing drivers’ compliance with VSL/CMS instructions. Underground loop detectors (LDs) are the most common freeway traffic surveillance technologies used for various intelligent transportation system (ITS) applications such as travel time estimation and crash detection. Recently, the emphasis in freeway management has been shifting towards using LDs data to develop real-time crash-risk assessment models. Numerous v studies have established statistical links between freeway crash risk and traffic flow characteristics. However, there is a lack of good understanding of the relationship between traffic flow variables (i.e. speed, volume and occupancy) and crashes that occur under reduced visibility (VR crashes). Thus, another objective of this research was to explore the occurrence of reduced visibility related (VR) crashes on freeways using real-time traffic surveillance data collected from loop detectors (LDs) and radar sensors. In addition, it examines the difference between VR crashes to those occurring at clear visibility conditions (CV crashes). To achieve these objectives, Random Forests (RF) and matched case-control logistic regression model were estimated. The results indicated that traffic flow variables leading to VR crashes are slightly different from those variables leading to CV crashes. It was found that, higher occupancy observed about half a mile between the nearest upstream and downstream stations increases the risk for both VR and CV crashes. Moreover, an increase of the average speed observed on the same half a mile increases the probability of VR crash. On the other hand, high speed variation coupled with lower average speed observed on the same half a mile increase the likelihood of CV crashes. Moreover, two issues that have not explicitly been addressed in prior studies are; (1) the possibility of predicting VR crashes using traffic data collected from the Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) sensors installed on Expressways and (2) which traffic data is advantageous for predicting VR crashes; LDs or AVIs. Thus, this research attempts to examine the relationships between VR crash risk and real-time traffic data collected from LDs installed on two Freeways in Central Florida (I-4 and I-95) and from AVI sensors installed on two vi Expressways (SR 408 and SR 417). Also, it investigates which data is better for predicting VR crashes. The approach adopted here involves developing Bayesian matched case-control logistic regression using the historical VR crashes, LDs and AVI data. Regarding models estimated based on LDs data, the average speed observed at the nearest downstream station along with the coefficient of variation in speed observed at the nearest upstream station, all at 5-10 minute prior to the crash time, were found to have significant effect on VR crash risk. However, for the model developed based on AVI data, the coefficient of variation in speed observed at the crash segment, at 5-10 minute prior to the crash time, affected the likelihood of VR crash occurrence. Argument concerning which traffic data (LDs or AVI) is better for predicting VR crashes is also provided and discussed.

Traffic safety has become the first concern in the transportation area. Crashes have cause extensive human and economic losses. With the objective of reducing crash occurrence and alleviating crash injury severity, major efforts have been dedicated to reveal the hazardous factors that affect crash occurrence at both the aggregate (targeting crash frequency per segment, intersection, etc.,) and disaggregate levels (analyzing each crash event). The aggregate traffic safety studies, mainly developing safety performance functions (SPFs), are being conducted for the purpose of unveiling crash contributing factors for the interest locations. Results of the aggregate traffic safety studies can be used to identify crash hot spots, calculate crash modification factors (CMF), and improve geometric characteristics. Aggregate analyses mainly focus on discovering the hazardous factors that are related to the frequency of total crashes, of specific crash type, or of each crash severity level. While disaggregate studies benefit from the reliable surveillance systems which provide detailed real-time traffic and weather data. This information could help in capturing microlevel influences of the hazardous factors which might lead to a crash. The disaggregate traffic safety models, also called real-time crash risk evaluation models, can be used in monitoring crash hazardousness with the real-time field data fed in. One potential use of real-time crash risk evaluation models is to develop Variable Speed Limits (VSL) as a part of a freeway management system. Models have been developed to predict crash occurrence to proactively improve traffic safety and prevent crash occurrence. iv In this study, first, aggregate safety performance functions were estimated to unveil the different risk factors affecting crash occurrence for a mountainous freeway section. Then disaggregate real-time crash risk evaluation models have been developed for the total crashes with both the machine learning and hierarchical Bayesian models. Considering the need for analyzing both aggregate and disaggregate aspects of traffic safety, systematic multi-level traffic safety studies have been conducted for single- and multi-vehicle crashes, and weekday and weekend crashes. Finally, the feasibility of utilizing a VSL system to improve traffic safety on freeways has been investigated. This research was conducted based on data obtained from a 15-mile mountainous freeway section on I-70 in Colorado. The data contain historical crash data, roadway geometric characteristics, real-time weather data, and real-time traffic data. Real-time weather data were recorded by 6 weather stations installed along the freeway section, while the real-time traffic data were obtained from the Remote Traffic Microwave Sensor (RTMS) radars and Automatic Vechicle Identification (AVI) systems. Different datasets have been formulated from various data sources, and prepared for the multi-level traffic safety studies. In the aggregate traffic safety investigation, safety performance functions were developed to identify crash occurrence hazardous factors. For the first time real-time weather and traffic data were used in SPFs. Ordinary Poisson model and random effects Poisson models with Bayesian inference approach were employed to reveal the effects of weather and traffic related variables on crash occurrence. Two scenarios were considered: one seasonal based case and one crash type v based case. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was utilized as the comparison criterion; and the correlated random effects Poisson models outperform the others. Results indicate that weather condition variables, especially precipitation, play a key role in the safety performance functions. Moreover, in order to compare with the correlated random effects Poisson model, Multivariate Poisson model and Multivariate Poisson-lognormal model have been estimated. Conclusions indicate that, instead of assuming identical random effects for the homogenous segments, considering the correlation effects between two count variables would result in better model fit. Results from the aggregate analyses shed light on the policy implication to reduce crash frequencies. For the studied roadway segment, crash occurrence in the snow season have clear trends associated with adverse weather situations (bad visibility and large amount of precipitation); weather warning systems can be employed to improve road safety during the snow season. Furthermore, different traffic management strategies should be developed according to the distinct seasonal influence factors. In particular, sites with steep slopes need more attention from the traffic management center and operators especially during snow seasons to control the excess crash occurrence. Moreover, distinct strategy of freeway management should be designed to address the differences between single- and multi-vehicle crash characteristics. In addition to developing safety performance functions with various modeling techniques, this study also investigates four different approaches of developing informative priors for the independent variables. Bayesian inference framework provides a complete and coherent way to balance the empirical data and prior expectations; merits of these informative priors have been tested along with two types of Bayesian hierarchical models (Poisson-gamma and Poisson- vi lognormal models). Deviance Information Criterion, R-square values, and coefficients of variance for the estimations were utilized as evaluation measures to select the best model(s). Comparisons across the models indicate that the Poisson-gamma model is superior with a better model fit and it is much more robust with the informative priors. Moreover, the two-stage Bayesian updating informative priors provided the best goodness-of-fit and coefficient estimation accuracies. In addition to the aggregate analyses, real-time crash risk evaluation models have been developed to identify crash contributing factors at the disaggregate level. Support Vector Machine (SVM), a recently proposed statistical learning model and Hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression models were introduced to evaluate real-time crash risk. Classification and regression tree (CART) model has been developed to select the most important explanatory variables. Based on the variable selection results, Bayesian logistic regression models and SVM models with different kernel functions have been developed. Model comparisons based on receiver operating curves (ROC) demonstrate that the SVM model with Radial basis kernel function outperforms the others. Results from the models demonstrated that crashes are likely to happen during congestion periods (especially when the queuing area has propagated from the downstream segment); high variation of occupancy and/or volume would increase the probability of crash occurrence. Moreover, effects of microscopic traffic, weather, and roadway geometric factors on the occurrence of specific crash types have been investigated. Crashes have been categorized as rear- vii end, sideswipe, and single-vehicle crashes. AVI segment average speed, real-time weather data, and roadway geometric characteristics data were utilized as explanatory variables. Conclusions from this study imply that different active traffic management (ATM) strategies should be designed for three- and two-lane roadway sections and also considering the seasonal effects. Based on the abovementioned results, real-time crash risk evaluation models have been developed separately for multi-vehicle and single-vehicle crashes, and weekday and weekend crashes. Hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression models (random effects and random parameter logistic regression models) have been introduced to address the seasonal variations, crash unit level’s diversities, and unobserved heterogeneity caused by geometric characteristics. For the multi-vehicle crashes: congested conditions at downstream would contribute to an increase in the likelihood of multi-vehicle crashes; multi-vehicle crashes are more likely to occur during poor visibility conditions and if there is a turbulent area that exists downstream. Drivers who are unable to reduce their speeds timely are prone to causing rear-end crashes. While for the singlevehicle crashes: slow moving traffic platoons at the downstream detector of the crash occurrence locations would increase the probability of single-vehicle crashes; large variations of occupancy downstream would also increase the likelihood of single-vehicle crash occurrence. Substantial efforts have been dedicated to revealing the hazardous factors that affect crash occurrence from both the aggregate and disaggregate level in this study, however, findings and conclusions from these research work need to be transferred into applications for roadway design and freeway management. This study further investigates the feasibility of utilizing Variable Speed Limits (VSL) system, one key part of ATM, to improve traffic safety on freeways. A proactive traffic safety improvement VSL control algorithm has been proposed. First, an viii extension of the traffic flow model METANET was employed to predict traffic flow while considering VSL’s impacts on the flow-density diagram; a real-time crash risk evaluation model was then estimated for the purpose of quantifying crash risk; finally, the optimal VSL control strategies were achieved by employing an optimization technique of minimizing the total predicted crash risks along the VSL implementation area. Constraints were set up to limit the increase of the average travel time and differences between posted speed limits temporarily and spatially. The proposed VSL control strategy was tested for a mountainous freeway bottleneck area in the microscopic simulation software VISSIM. Safety impacts of the VSL system were quantified as crash risk improvements and speed homogeneity improvements. Moreover, three different driver compliance levels were modeled in VISSIM to monitor the sensitivity of VSL’s safety impacts on driver compliance levels. Conclusions demonstrate that the proposed VSL system could effectively improve traffic safety by decreasing crash risk, enhancing speed homogeneity, and reducing travel time under both high and moderate driver compliance levels; while the VSL system does not have significant effects on traffic safety enhancement under the low compliance scenario. Future implementations of VSL control strategies and related research topics were also discussed.

Researchers at the University of Central Florida (UCF) have been working during the past few years on different strategies to improve freeway safety in real-time. An ongoing research at UCF has investigated crash patterns that occurred on a stretch of Interstate-4 located in Orlando, FL and created statistical models to predict in real-time the likelihood of a crash in terms of time and space. The models were then tested using PARAMICS micro-simulation and different strategies that would reduce the risk of crashes were suggested. One of the main recommended strategies was the use of Variable Speed Limits (VSL) which intervenes by reducing the speed upstream the segment of high risk and increasing the speed downstream. The purpose of this study is to examine the recommendations reached by the micro-simulation using the UCF driving simulator. Drivers' speed behavior in response to changes in speed limits and different information messages are observed. Different scenarios that represent the recommendations from the earlier micro-simulation study and three different messages displayed using Variable Message Signs (VMS) as an added measure to advice drivers about changes in the speed limit were created. In addition, abrupt and gradual changes in speed were tested against the scenarios that maintained the speed limit constant or did include a VSL or VMS in the scenarios' design (base case). Dynamic congestion was also added to the scenarios' design to observe drivers' reactions and speed reductions once drivers approached congestion. A total of 85 subjects were recruited. Gender and age were the controlling variables for the subjects' recruitment. Each of the subjects drove 3 out of a total of 24 scenarios. In addition, a survey was conducted and involved hypothetical questions, including knowledge about VMS and VSL, and questions about their driving behavior. The survey data were useful in identifying the subjects' compliance with the speed limit and VSL/VMS acceptance. Two statistical analytical techniques were performed on the data that were collected from the simulator: ANOVA and PROC MIXED. The ANOVA test was used to investigate if the differences in speed and reaction distances between subjects were statistically significant for each sign compared to the base case. The PROC MIXED analysis was used to investigate the differences of all scenarios (24x24) based on the spot speed data collected for each driver. It was found from the analyses that drivers follow better the message displayed on VMS that informs them that the speed is changing, whether it is or not, strictly enforced as opposed to providing the reason for change or no information. Moreover, an abrupt change in speed produced immediate results; however both abrupt and gradual changes in speed produced the same reduction in speed at the target zone. It was also noticed that most drivers usually drive 5 mph above the speed limit, even though in the survey analysis the majority of them stated that they drive in compliance with the speed limit or with the flow of traffic. This means that if a modest speed reduction of 5 mph is requested they will ignore it, but if a 10 mph reduction is recommended they will reduce the speed by at least 5 mph. Consequently, it was noticed that drivers arrived at the congestion zone with a slower speed than the base speed limit due to the combination of VMS and VSL signage. By having drivers approaching congestion with a slower speed, potential rear-end crashes could be avoided. Comparing the two genders indicated that females are more likely to follow the VMS's recommendations to reduce the speed. Also females in general drive above the speed limit between 2 mph and 3 mph, while males drive above the speed limit between 5 mph and 8 mph. From the analysis of the age factor, it was concluded that drivers from the 16-19 age group drive faster and drivers from the 45 and above age group drive slower, than the drivers from the other groups. In general, all drivers reduced and/or increased their speed accordingly when a VMS and/or VSL was present in the scenario advising for this change in the speed limit. The investigations conducted for this thesis proved that the recommendations suggested previously based on the crash risk model and micro-simulation (Abdel-Aty et al., 2006) aid drivers in reducing their speed before they approach a segment of high risk and by doing so reduce the likelihood of a crash. Finally, the real-time safety benefits of VMS and VSL should be continuously evaluated in future studies.

This thesis describes a research study relating naturalistic Global Positioning System (GPS) driving data with long-term traffic safety performance for two classes of roadways. These two classes are multilane arterial streets and limited access highways. GPS driving data used for this study was collected from 33 volunteer drivers from July 2012 to March 2013. The GPS devices used were custom GPS data loggers capable of recording speed, position, and other attributes at an average rate of 2.5 hertz. Linear Referencing in ESRI ArcMAP was performed to assign spatial and other roadway attributes to each GPS data point collected. GPS data was filtered to exclude data with high horizontal dilution of precision (HDOP), incorrect heading attributes or other GPS communication errors. For analysis of arterial roadways, the Two-Fluid model parameters were chosen as the measure for long-term traffic safety analysis. The Two-Fluid model was selected based on previous research which showed correlation between the Two-Fluid model parameters n and Tm and total crash rate along arterial roadways. Linearly referenced GPS data was utilized to obtain the total travel time and stop time for several half-mile long trips along two arterial roadways, Grand Avenue and California Boulevard, in San Luis Obispo. Regression between log transformed values of these variables (total travel time and stop time) were used to derive the parameters n and Tm. To estimate stop time for each trip, a vehicle “stop” was defined when the device was traveling at less than 2 miles per hour. Results showed that Grand Avenue had a higher value for n and a lower value for Tm, which suggests that Grand Avenue may have worse long-term safety performance as characterized by long-term crash rates. However, this was not verified with crash data due to incomplete crash data in the TIMS database. Analysis of arterial roadways concluded by verifying GPS data collected in the California Boulevard study with sample data collected utilizing a traditional “car chase” methodology, which showed that no significant difference in the two data sources existed when trips included noticeable stop times. For analysis of highways the derived measurement of vehicle jerk, or rate of change of acceleration, was calculated to explore its relationship with long-term traffic safety performance of highway segments. The decision to use jerk comes from previous research which utilized high magnitude jerk events as crash surrogate, or near-crash events. Instead of using jerk for near-crash analysis, the measurement of jerk was utilized to determine the percentage of GPS data observed below a certain negative jerk threshold for several highway segments. These segments were ¼-mile and ½-mile long. The preliminary exploration was conducted with 39 ¼-mile long segments of US Highway 101 within the city limits of San Luis Obispo. First, Pearson’s correlation coefficients were estimated for rate of ‘high’ jerk occurrences on these highway segments (with definitions of ‘high’ depending on varying jerk thresholds) and an estimate of crash rates based on long-term historical crash data. The trends in the correlation coefficients as the thresholds were varied led to conducting further analysis based on a jerk threshold of -2 ft./sec3 for the ¼-mile segment analysis and -1 ft./sec3 for the ¼-mile segment analysis. Through a negative binomial regression model, it was shown that utilizing the derived jerk percentage measure showed a significant correlation with the total number of historical crashes observed along US Highway 101. Analysis also showed that other characteristics of the roadway, including presences of a curve, presence of weaving (indicated by the presence of auxiliary lanes), and average daily traffic (ADT) did not have a significant correlation with observed crashes. Similar analysis was repeated for 19 ½-mile long segments in the same study area, and it was found the percentage of high negative jerk metric was again significant with historical crashes. The ½-mile negative binomial regression for the presence of curve was also a significant variable; however the standard error for this determination was very high due to a low sample size of analysis segments that did not contain curves. Results of this research show the potential benefit that naturalistic GPS driving data can provide for long-term traffic safety analysis, even if data is unaccompanied with any additional data (such as live video feed) collected with expensive vehicle instrumentation. The methodologies of this study are repeatable with many GPS devices found in certain consumer electronics, including many newer smartphones.