Anticipating changes to public transportation ridership demand is important to planning for and meeting service goals and maintaining system viability. These changes may occur in the short- or long-term; extensive academic work has focused on bettering long-term forecasting procedures while improvements to short-term forecasting techniques have not received significant academic attention. This dissertation combines traditional forecasting approaches with multivariate regression to develop a transferable short-term public transportation ridership forecasting model that incorporates fuel price as a prediction parameter. The research herein addresses 254 US transit systems from bus, light rail, heavy rail, and commuter rail modes, and uses complementary methods to account for seasonal and non-seasonal ridership fluctuations. Models were built and calibrated using monthly data from 2002 to 2007 and validated using a six-month dataset from early 2008. Using variable transformations, classical data decomposition techniques, multivariate regression, and a variety of forecasting model validation measures, this work establishes a benchmark for future research into transferable transit ridership forecasting model improvements that may aid public transportation system planners in an era when, due to fuel price concerns, global warming and green initiatives, and other impetuses, transit use is seeing a resurgence in popularity. / text

Community and Regional Planning / In the past two decades, Austin has tremendous population growth, job opportunity in the downtown core and transportation challenges associated with that. Public transit, and particularly rail, often is regarded as a strategy to help reduce urban traffic congestion. The Urban Rail, which combines features of streetcars and light rail, is introduced into Austin as a new transit rail. The City of Austin, Capital Metro and Lone Star Rail are actively studying routing, financial, environmental and community elements associated with a first phase of Urban Rail. This thesis collected 2010 Origin and Destination Rail Transit Survey data from Capital Metropolitan Transportation Authority. The research focuses on the rail transit ridership. Two regression models are applied to analyze the factors influencing Austin rail transit ridership. One model is focusing on the socioeconomic characteristics. One model is focusing on the spatial factors. Our model shows that demographic factors have more significant effect than spatial factors. In addition, this work also tries to analyze the correlations between those factors and make recommendations based on the analysis result. / text

Cities like New York and Chicago have comprehensive heavy rail networks that provide not only high frequency service, but also reach popular destinations and employment centers. Although many other cities strive for similar transit infrastructure, acquiring the financial backing and/or right-of-way to develop these transit systems can take years. To develop transit systems in a more timely and cost-effective manner, cities are using alternative transportation modes such as light rail, streetcars, bus rapid transit (BRT), and frequent local buses. As cities become more multi-modal, their system maps become more confusing. Historically, systems have provided separate transit maps for each transit mode they provide. However, integration of these new modes requires integration of system maps. Experts in the field of transit mapping have been calling for frequent transit maps, which highlight routes that provide frequent service or reach important destinations, regardless of mode. Some cities have implemented these multi-modal maps successfully, but to date, there is no documented guidance to assist agencies in creating these maps. Using Metropolitan Atlanta Regional Transit Authority (MARTA) in Atlanta as a case study, the research team created multiple maps that include three transit modes throughout the city and tested them through surveys on transit riders and non-riders. Each map adds BRT and local bus routes that meet specific frequency and/or location criteria to the existing rail map. This project examines reactions of transit riders and non-riders to these new multi-modal, schematic maps. Through surveys targeting individuals with different transit ridership habits, this project explores the potential to affect ridership on these alternative modes and enhance system understanding beyond the rail map. The results of these surveys demonstrate the need to simplify system maps, the public desire for frequency mapping, and the potential to increase ridership on alternative modes. These results build on previous work that schematic maps affect rider spatial understanding of the system and route or mode decisions. Including more modes on the map in an efficient and visually pleasing way, results of this project found that both riders and non-riders would take transit more and better understand how all of the modes interact together to form a comprehensive transit network.

Public transit is a key method for increasing sustainability in the transportation sector; transit can decrease emissions harmful to the environment and increase social equity by providing improved mobility. Given the limited resources available to build and operate public transit, it makes sense to meet multiple sustainability goals simultaneously. Transit that is accessible by non-motorized means and serves multiple trip types can potentially reduce vehicle usage and increase mobility for everyone. This research assesses whether transit systems with high non-motorized access rates and non-work trip usage are meeting social and environmental goals and what factors impact non-work and non-motorized access rates. Eight criteria were used to choose 17 metropolitan regions that represent a range of transit conditions in the US. Non-parametric correlations were calculated between non-work usage and non-motorized access and a dataset of 30 continuous and 11 categorical variables that measure regional characteristics, transit efficiency, land use, rider demographics, and transit operations and design. In-depth case studies, including site visits and interviews, were done for Denver, Colorado; Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota; and Sacramento, California. The correlations and case studies both confirm that transit system with high non-work usage and non-motorized access are not meeting social or environmental sustainability goals. These systems primarily serve low-income riders, are less well funded, and provide limited service. Only systems with higher per capita funding levels meet social goals and higher funding is correlated to higher income riders. However, having higher income riders does not imply that social goals are met. Regional policies regarding operations and design of transit can increase usage for non-work trips and non-motorized access and are necessary to ensure both social and environmental goals are met.

This thesis presents the results from a survey of transit agencies on web-based feedback tools and their role in enabling communication between agencies and riders. Motivation for the survey stems from the growing importance of web-based feedback tools in improving transit services. Web-based feedback can improve transit agencies' knowledge of issues relating to their systems while enhancing the transit riding experience. As the availability of Internet and smartphones increases among transit users, the tools available to gather feedback have grown in response. Web- and smartphone-based tools are instrumental in collecting a wide range of feedback, including commendations and complaints, maintenance issues, transit services, safety and security, long-term planning and other transit operations related issues. At the same time, transit agencies must determine how to best respond and manage the growing presence of information on the web relating to their agencies performance. Through a web-based survey administered to 130 transit agencies in the United States and Canada, information was gathered on the current and planned use of web-based tools by transit agencies. The overall survey results show that most transit agencies focus on sorting and responding to unsolicited feedback being collected primarily through social media, email, and online forms. Additionally, transit agencies see the benefits of web-based customer feedback, noting that the key to managing their systems into the future will involve developing agency-wide digital feedback plans that allow automation and integration across all feedback channels. Finally, transit agencies also noted that the primary downside to web-based feedback involved a lack of staff resources to support their systems. This thesis provides further analysis focusing on three questions regarding the survey results: - How can agency size, based on unlinked trips, influence the survey responses collected from agencies regarding their use of web-based feedback tools? - What variables from the survey can influence a transit agencies ability to provide web-based feedback tools to their riders? - What factors might contribute to differences in transit agencies rider access estimates to Internet and smartphones? While the results show that larger agencies are able to offer more web-based feedback tools to their riders, there were problems with transit agencies incorrectly estimating their riders’ access to Internet and smartphones. This could cause issues regarding agencies ability to understand which web-based tools they should implement to engage their riders. This thesis details one portion of an overall project, which will provide framework for agencies to assess their needs and resources to determine how to create their own effective customer feedback systems in relation to what web-based feedback tools will most benefit themselves and their riders.

It is observed that transit riders are responding to service changes while transit planning is responding to ridership changes, or that transit patronage and service supply are highly interrelated. It is also noticed that transit riders transfer from route to route, the introduction of new service may draw some riders from the existing routes, which implies transit patronage on a route is also affected by other parallel and intersecting routes. An analytic tool is needed to examine these complex relationships in the transit system. This study has developed a quantitative model by incorporating these interactions into a simultaneous system. The simultaneity of transit demand, supply and the interrelationship of inter-route effects are addressed in a three-equation simultaneous model: a demand equation, a supply equation and an equation for competing routes. These equations are estimated simultaneously using the three-stage-least-squares estimation method. The model is estimated at the route-segment level by the time of a day, and by the inbound and outbound directions. Data from Portland, Oregon metropolitan area are used as an extended case study. The socioeconomic and demographic data are allocated to an one-quarter-mile distance service area around a transit route by utilizing the technique of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The data allocation significantly reduces the measurement error. Inter-route relationships are also identified using GIS. The estimation results show that a service change on a route increases the transit patronage on that route, but it also decreases the ridership on its competing routes, so the net effect of that service improvement is smaller than the ridership increase on the subject route. A conventional single equation model under-estimates the ridership responses on the subject route, and over-estimates the net patronage response. This study is the first research to discuss the net effects of a service change at the route level. The model can be implemented for system-level policy analysis and route-level service and land use planning. It is especially useful for "what-if" scenario analysis at the route level to simulate the ridership impacts of service and land use changes.

This dissertation contends that the decision of the Municipality of Metropolitan Toronto and the Toronto Transit Commission to introduce a grid of frequent, all-day bus service on arterial roads in newly built, low-density suburban neighbourhoods is responsible for Toronto’s unique ability to attract suburbanites to transit. Toronto’s approach is in stark contrast with the that followed in most North American urban regions, where auto-oriented suburban built form is considered to make transit unviable, and therefore transit service outside the urban core is typically very limited. The Ontario government’s establishment of metropolitan government in the Toronto region in 1953, at a time when transit remained a popular mode of transportation, encouraged and empowered suburban politicians to pressure the TTC to expand service to their constituencies. In response, the TTC developed a plan for suburban bus service that succeeded, in terms of ridership and financial performance, far beyond its expectations. This success, in turn, encouraged further service improvements and government support for transit, producing a virtuous spiral of service increases, ridership gains, and government funding increases, which stood in sharp contrast with the vicious spiral of ridership declines, service cuts, and fare hikes that plagued transit systems in most North American cities. This dissertation is the product of archival research in Canada and the United States, as well as a series of interviews with policymakers, planners, and activists who were engaged during the period. The Toronto model offers valuable lessons for transportation planning across North America. It demonstrates that it is possible to achieve high transit mode share, even in areas that are not designed as explicitly transit-oriented communities. This means that it is possible to shift trips away from the automobile without needing to entirely rebuild the suburban neighbourhoods where most North Americans reside, an unachievable goal on the timeline required to avert catastrophic climate change. It also demonstrates that the benefits of large capital investments in rapid transit and rail projects will only be maximized when paired with operating funding to ensure that the new infrastructure is embedded in a broader network of frequent local transit service.

The major transit systems operating in San Francisco are San Francisco Municipal (MUNI), Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), and Caltrain. The system of interest for this paper is MUNI, in particular the bus and light rail systems. During the past decade transit ridership in the area has experienced diverging growth, with bus ridership declining while rail ridership is growing significantly (Erhardt et al. 2017). Our data show that between 2009 and 2016, MUNI rail ridership increases from 146,000 to 171,400, while MUNI bus ridership decreases from 520,000 to 450,000. Direct ridership models (DRMs) are used to determine what factors are influencing MUNI light rail and bus ridership. The DRMs predict ridership fairly well, within 10% of the observed change. However, the assumption of no multi-collinearity is voided. Variables, such as employment and housing density, are found to be collinear. Fixed-effects panel models are used to combat the multi-collinearity issue. Fixed-effects panel models assign an intercept to every stop, so that any spatial correlation is removed. A transportation network company, Uber and Lyft, variable is introduced (TNC) to the panel models, to quantify the effect they have on MUNI bus and light rail ridership. The addition of a TNC variable and elimination of multi-collinearity helps the panel models predict ridership better than the daily and time-of-day DRMs, both within 5% of the observed change. TNCs are found to complement MUNI light rail and compete with MUNI buses. TNCs contributed to a 7% growth in light rail ridership and a 10% decline in bus ridership. These findings suggest that the relationship TNCs have with transit is complex and that the modes cannot be lumped together.

Real-time information that informs transit riders about transit schedules, next bus or train arrivals, and service alerts, is becoming increasingly available, particularly through internet-enabled smartphone applications. However, the extent of communication technology usage amongst transit riders, specifically their access to mobile applications and alternative technologies that can provide real-time information, is largely unknown. Without this information, transit agencies are risking investing in an alternative technology that may not sufficiently supply real-time information to as many as possible riders. The purpose of this study is to identify the differences in individual technology accessibility and prioritize investing in real-time information application development that mirrors the unique characteristics of transit riders. This recognition and development will allow a wider availability of real-time information amongst transit riders. Paired with an investigation of cellular phone usage among transit riders and the general American population, an analysis of Saint Louis Metro’s Onboard Survey was performed. Cross tabulations and chi-squared tests were conducted to examine riders’ communication technology usage. Binary logit models were used to understand how, and whether, the ownership of smartphone applications is dependent on various demographic factors. These analyses identified specific demographic groups that would benefit from supplemental technology methods more conducive to their particular information accessibility. Results showed that communication technology usage has risen substantially in recent years but a portion of riders are still without access to smartphone applications. Specific demographic groups (e.g., riders over 40 years of age) were less likely to own smartphones, and these results indicate that computer-based websites and IVR are the best supplementary alternatives for those groups.

This study aimed at examining the social and economic effects of the Rea Vaya Bus Rapid Transit system (BRT) on various stakeholders in Johannesburg. The objective of the study was to investigate the effect the Rea Vaya has had on users and non-users of the Rea Vaya system. The findings of this study suggest that the Rea Vaya is beneficial in that it provides an option in modes of transport for commuters, particularly for people who were historically disadvantaged and were not permitted to reside in the city during the apartheid era. BRT systems are designed to provide a safe, reliable and accessible public transport system. The Rea Vaya system is aimed at providing better public transport, reducing congestion, on public roads, improving the roads and creating jobs. The findings have shown that the Rea Vaya has not been successful in meeting all its aims. The Rea Vaya has not managed to provide an accessible transport system thus far. Traffic in the inner city has not been reduced as a modal shift has not yet occurred. Since the inception of the Rea Vaya system there has been resistance from the Taxi Industry. Despite negotiations and attempts made by the Municipality of the City of Johannesburg to include the Taxi Industry in the Rea Vaya system, by making them shareholders of the system, the findings presented affirms that there is still resentment and resistance from the Taxi Industry towards the Rea Vaya system. The loss of revenue since the introduction of the Rea Vaya has caused a challenge for Taxi owners. Not only is it alleged that the Rea Vaya has affected the Taxi Industry, but the Rea Vaya infrastructure has caused a number of problems for private car users in the City. Private car users are inconvenienced by the designated bus lanes and lack of road signage in the city. These conclusions affirm that the Rea Vaya is not beneficial to all stakeholders in the City of Johannesburg. The experiences and opinions of users and non-users suggest that the system has a number of deficiencies. However some users of the system have benefited socially and economically. For some of the users the Rea Vaya has created a few opportunities; however the poor customer service from bus drivers and station staff was seen as a setback. Transit Orientated development in Johannesburg has not yet taken off. The government’s attempts to create mixed land use through the implementation of corridors of freedom are in its infant stages. Businesses across the Rea Vaya station found the Rea Vaya to have both positive and negative effects on their businesses. Some businesses found that the development of stations have added aesthetic value, however due to the frequency of Rea Vaya buses at stations, commuters would not wait for long periods of time and this resulted in fewer customers for businesses across the Rea Vaya station. The Rea Vaya system has provided a safe and reliable transport system in Johannesburg. However, the system is in its infant stages and has a number of deficiencies as presented in the findings of this study. / Geography / M. Sc. (Geography)