A resposta oceânica a perturbações com períodos e comprimentos significativamente maiores que o período inercial e que o raio de deformação de Rossby se dá na forma de ondas de Rossby planetárias. Geralmente, as perturbações são atribuídas a variações no rotacional do vento via bombeamento de Ekman. A passagem dessas ondas causa deformação das isopicnais, podendo resultar em anomalias da temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) por advecção vertical. Dependendo de como ocorre a interação ar-mar, anomalias de TSM podem alterar o campo de ventos ou serem alteradas por ele através de fluxo de calor. Este trabalho utiliza dez anos de dados de temperatura da superfície do mar, velocidade e direção dos ventos e anomalia da altura do mar obtidos por satélites para identificar regiões do oceano onde há forçamento direto do vento na geração de ondas planetárias que se propagam linearmente. Mapas de correlação cruzada entre essas variáveis permitiram identificar onde a interação entre o oceano e a atmosfera é linear. Um modelo simples de uma camada e meia forçado apenas pelo bombeamento de Ekman foi utilizado para testar se, nestas regiões, a variabilidade atmosférica seria suficiente para explicar a variabilidade das ondas de Rossby estimadas pelos dados altimétricos. A interação entre a TSM e a intensidade do vento no Atlântico sul tropical é distinta das demais bacias oceânicas. Das correlações entre a TSM e o rotacional da tensão de cisalhamento do vento, observou-se que a dinâmica de Ekman não é marcante no Índico. Nas regiões tropicais do Atlântico e do Pacífico, as previsões do modelo foram similares às observações. Por fim, foram obtidas evidências de geração e retroalimentação de ondas planetárias nas bordas leste do Atlântico e do Pacífico. / Rossby waves are the ocean response to perturbations whose temporal and spatial scales are significantly longer than both the inertial period and the Rossby radius of deformation. These perturbations are, more often than not, attributed to variations in the wind stress curl {\\em via} Ekman pumping. The waves cause isopycnal displacement which due to vertical advection may result in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Depending on the ocean--atmosphere interaction, SST anomalies can either change the wind field or be changed by it due to the heat flux. This study makes use of ten years of satellite derived SST, wind vector, and sea surface height anomaly data to identify regions where there is direct wind forcing of linear Rossby waves. Cross-correlation maps between these variables show where linear interactions occur. A simple 1½ layer model forced by Ekman pumping was used to check if, in those regions, atmospheric variability alone can explain the observed Rossby wave variability as estimated from radar altimeter data. The interaction between SST and wind magnitude in the South Atlantic is distinct from all other ocean basins. SST and wind stress curl correlations show that the Ekman dynamics is not dominant in the Indian Ocean. In the tropical Atlantic and Pacific the model predictions are similar to the observations. Finally, evidence of genesis and feedback of planetary waves is presented for the eastern boundaries of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

A resposta oceânica a perturbações com períodos e comprimentos significativamente maiores que o período inercial e que o raio de deformação de Rossby se dá na forma de ondas de Rossby planetárias. Geralmente, as perturbações são atribuídas a variações no rotacional do vento via bombeamento de Ekman. A passagem dessas ondas causa deformação das isopicnais, podendo resultar em anomalias da temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) por advecção vertical. Dependendo de como ocorre a interação ar-mar, anomalias de TSM podem alterar o campo de ventos ou serem alteradas por ele através de fluxo de calor. Este trabalho utiliza dez anos de dados de temperatura da superfície do mar, velocidade e direção dos ventos e anomalia da altura do mar obtidos por satélites para identificar regiões do oceano onde há forçamento direto do vento na geração de ondas planetárias que se propagam linearmente. Mapas de correlação cruzada entre essas variáveis permitiram identificar onde a interação entre o oceano e a atmosfera é linear. Um modelo simples de uma camada e meia forçado apenas pelo bombeamento de Ekman foi utilizado para testar se, nestas regiões, a variabilidade atmosférica seria suficiente para explicar a variabilidade das ondas de Rossby estimadas pelos dados altimétricos. A interação entre a TSM e a intensidade do vento no Atlântico sul tropical é distinta das demais bacias oceânicas. Das correlações entre a TSM e o rotacional da tensão de cisalhamento do vento, observou-se que a dinâmica de Ekman não é marcante no Índico. Nas regiões tropicais do Atlântico e do Pacífico, as previsões do modelo foram similares às observações. Por fim, foram obtidas evidências de geração e retroalimentação de ondas planetárias nas bordas leste do Atlântico e do Pacífico. / Rossby waves are the ocean response to perturbations whose temporal and spatial scales are significantly longer than both the inertial period and the Rossby radius of deformation. These perturbations are, more often than not, attributed to variations in the wind stress curl {\\em via} Ekman pumping. The waves cause isopycnal displacement which due to vertical advection may result in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Depending on the ocean--atmosphere interaction, SST anomalies can either change the wind field or be changed by it due to the heat flux. This study makes use of ten years of satellite derived SST, wind vector, and sea surface height anomaly data to identify regions where there is direct wind forcing of linear Rossby waves. Cross-correlation maps between these variables show where linear interactions occur. A simple 1½ layer model forced by Ekman pumping was used to check if, in those regions, atmospheric variability alone can explain the observed Rossby wave variability as estimated from radar altimeter data. The interaction between SST and wind magnitude in the South Atlantic is distinct from all other ocean basins. SST and wind stress curl correlations show that the Ekman dynamics is not dominant in the Indian Ocean. In the tropical Atlantic and Pacific the model predictions are similar to the observations. Finally, evidence of genesis and feedback of planetary waves is presented for the eastern boundaries of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

L'objectif de ce travail est de montrer la vulnérabilité des paysages forestiers en relation avec la variabilité climatique à l'échelle de la Tanzanie d’une part et d'analyser les dynamiques forestières, afin de réaliser une étude prospective des dynamiques de l'occupation des sols dans les réserves forestières de Pugu et de Kazimzumbwi d'autre part. L'analyse des données TRMM sur la période 2001-2013 a permis de mettre en évidence une variabilité saisonnière et interannuelle des précipitations à l'échelle du pays. Les cartes de précipitations interannuelles ont permis de distinguer les années à faible pluviométrie, les années à forte pluviométrie et les années à pluviométrie intermédiaire. Cette analyse a également permis de mettre en évidence 11 types de régimes pluviométriques marqués par des modes de variabilité saisonnière différents à l'échelle de la Tanzanie. Des oppositions existent entre les régimes pluviométriques de la région centrale savanicole marquées par des hauteurs annuelles faibles, un nombre de mois secs important (7 mois) et plus affectée par la variabilité interannuelle des précipitations d'une part et d’autre part les régions forestières du nord, sud et l'est plus humides et présentant des faibles déficits des hauteurs pluviométriques interannuelles. La sensibilité de la phénologie végétale à la variabilité pluviométrique a été analysé par l'étude des relations spatio-temporelles entre l'indice de végétation normalisé NDVI-MODIS et la pluviométrie (pluie TRMM). Les cartes de corrélations pluie/NDVI mettent en évidence une opposition entre les régions sèches du centre marquée par des paysages de savane fortement vulnérables à la variabilité pluviométrique et les régions du sud de forêts humides de montagnes et des régions côtières de forêts de mangroves réagissant peu à cette variabilité pluviométrique. Dans les régions de savanes du centre l'intensité de la dépendance pluie/NDVI est mesurée par un coefficient de corrélation de 0.70. Un suivi de l'analyse des pressions humaines sur les réserves forestières a été réalisé à partir de l'exemple des forêts de Pugu et de Kazimzumbwi sur la période 1995-2015 à partir de l'imagerie SPOT 6 (haute résolution) et LANDSAT. Les classifications de l’occupation du sol ont été réalisées à partir de la méthode orientée objet. Le bilan forestier montre que, des deux réserves forestières, seule la réserve de Pugu conserve encore près de la moitié de sa surface en forêt en 2015 (55% dont 32 % de forêt dense). À l'inverse la réserve de Kazimzumbwi ne contient que 5 % de forêt dense de sa superficie. Sur l'ensemble de la période étudiée (1995-2014), la sous-période 2009-2014 a été la plus critique en terme de perte de forêt. En effet, en l’espace de 5 ans les réserves forestières de Pugu et Kazimzumbwi ont presque perdu le double de leur superficie. Partant du constat d'une vulnérabilité accrue des pressions humaines dans les réserves, une analyse multicritère a permis d'identifier les zones de fortes et faibles pressions humaines. Les zones les plus vulnérables restent celles situées à proximité des axes de communication et des villes. Ainsi, les réserves forestières sont plus vulnérables dans leurs parties est, proches des routes principales et des grands centres urbains comme Pugu et Kisarawé. L'utilisation d’un modèle pour une modélisation prospective en 2050 a nécessité l’intégration des variables explicatives des changements observés et des cartes d'occupation du sol de 1995 et 2014. Le modèle est validé à partir d’une carte prédite et d’une carte réelle. Le résultat montre une simulation exacte à 72 %. Le modèle prévoit ainsi, à l’horizon 2050 une expansion et densification des surfaces artificialisées notamment à la périphérie nord-est de la réserve de Pugu et au sud dans la réserve de Kazimzumbwi. Cette croissance des surfaces artificialisées entraînera un recul important des surfaces forestières existantes à l’intérieur des réserves. / The objective of this work is on one hand to show the vulnerability of forest landscapes in relation to climate variability at the scale of Tanzania and on the other hand to analyze forest dynamics in order to carry out a prospective study of the dynamics of land use in the forest reserves of Pugu and Kazimzumbwi. Analysis of the TRMM data over the period from 2001 to 2013 has allowed revealing a seasonal and inter-annual variability in precipitation across the country. The inter-annual precipitation maps have made it possible to distinguish the years with low rainfall (2003, 2005, 2012 ), the years of high rainfall (2002, 2007, 2006, 2011) and the years of intermediate rainfall (2001, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2013). It has also help to distinguish 11 types of rainfall regimes marked by different patterns of seasonal variability at the scale of Tanzania. There are oppositions between the rainfall regimes of the central savannah region on one hand marked by low annual heights over an important period of seven dry months, also more affected by inter-annual variability, and the northern, southern and eastern forest regions are more humid and presenting low deficits of heights inter-annual rainfall. The sensitivity of plant phenology to rainfall variability has been analyzed by the examination of the spatio-temporal relationships between the standardized vegetation index NDVI-MODIS and rainfall (rain TRMM). The rain / NDVI correlation maps show an opposition between the dry regions of the center marked by savannah landscapes highly vulnerable to rainfall variability and the southern regions of moist forests, mountains and coastal regions, mangrove forests Reacting poorly to this rainfall variability. In the savannah regions of the center, the intensity of rain / NDI dependence is measured by a correlation coefficient of 0.70. A monitoring of the analysis of human pressures on forest reserves was carried out using the example of the Pugu and Kazimzumbwi forests during the period 1995-2015 using SPOT 6 (high resolution) and LANDSAT imagery. The land use classifications were realized from the object oriented method. The forest review shows that in 2015 (55% of which 32% is dense forest), from the two reserves only the reserve of Pugu still preserves nearly the half of its surface in forest while the reserve forest of Kazimzumbwi contains only 5% of its area. Over the entire period studied, the sub-period 2009-2014 was the most critical in terms of forest loss. In fact, within five years the forest reserves of Pugu and Kazimzumbwi have almost lost the double of their area. Based on the increased vulnerability of human pressures in the Pugu and Kazimzumbwi forest reserves and their periphery, a multicriteria analysis has made it possible to identify areas of high and low human pressures. The most vulnerable areas remain those located close to the communication axes and cities. Consequently forest reserves are more vulnerable in their eastern parts, close to major roads and major urban centers such as Pugu and Kazimzumbwi. The use of a model for prospective modeling in 2050 has required the integration of the explanatory variables of the observed changes and the land use maps of 1995 and 2014. The model is validated from a predicted map and a real map. The result shows an exact simulation at 72%, based on this hypothesis of an increase in anthropogenic human pressures on the two forest reserves over time; we have predicted the land use map of 2050 under the effect of explanatory variables. This prospective modeling therefore envisages, by 2050, an expansion and densification of artificial surfaces, notably at the north-eastern periphery of the reserve of Pugu and on the south in the kazimzumbwi reserve. This growth in artificial surfaces will result in a significant decline in existing forest areas within reserves.

Submitted by Gabriela Lopes (gmachadolopesufpel@gmail.com) on 2017-03-07T18:19:40Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) UFPel_Dissertacao Final_Marcelo.pdf: 2317384 bytes, checksum: 47ab82c7b9ffa8ffbeb06aa86cb59b31 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Aline Batista (alinehb.ufpel@gmail.com) on 2017-03-10T19:37:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 UFPel_Dissertacao Final_Marcelo.pdf: 2317384 bytes, checksum: 47ab82c7b9ffa8ffbeb06aa86cb59b31 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-10T19:37:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 UFPel_Dissertacao Final_Marcelo.pdf: 2317384 bytes, checksum: 47ab82c7b9ffa8ffbeb06aa86cb59b31 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-07-20 / Dada a importância da soja para a economia brasileira e do Rio Grande do Sul (RS) e a consequente necessidade de monitorar a safra agrícola, este trabalho tem por objetivo comparar os dados de variáveis meteorológicas geradas pelo modelo regional de previsão de tempo ETA e pelo sistema Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) em relação aos dados observados por estações meteorológicas convencionais no que tange a sua utilização em modelos agronômicos de monitoramento e estimativa da produtividade agrícola da soja no RS. Utilizaram-se dados observados compondo as variáveis precipitação pluvial, temperatura média do ar, radiação solar incidente, umidade relativa média do ar, e velocidade média do vento a 2 m, observados por estações meteorológicas do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) os quais foram usados como referência para comparação com aqueles estimados pelo sistema TRMM (precipitação pluvial) e pelo modelo ETA (demais variáveis). Foram utilizadas três safras agrícolas (2006/07 a 2008/09) para comparação e geração de modelos de ajuste e as três safras subsequentes (2009/10 a 2011/12) para a validação. Para os dados de precipitação pluvial observaram-se altos coeficientes de correlação (r) entre os dados de precipitação pluvial do TRMM e do INMET para a maioria das safras, sendo que a precisão da estimativa foi pouco alterada por ocasião do ajuste dos dados pelo modelo matemático. Para as variáveis meteorológicas temperatura média do ar, radiação solar incidente e umidade relativa média do ar, observou-se, em geral, média correlação entre os dados estimados pelo modelo ETA e os observados pelo INMET. Além disso, a maioria dos dados melhorou substancialmente por ocasião da aplicação dos modelos matemáticos gerados. No que tange à variável média velocidade do vento a 2 m, as correlações entre os dados estimados pelo ETA e os observados pelas estações meteorológicas do INMET foram muito baixas. / Due to the importance of soybean crop for the Brazilian economy as well as for the Rio Grande do Sul State (RS) and the consequent need to monitor the crop yield conditions, this study aims to compare meteorological data generated by the regional weather forecast model ETA and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) system versus observed data by conventional weather stations regarding their use in agronomic models in order to monitor and estimate soybean crop yield in RS. It was used original or derived data from rainfall, average air temperature, downward short wave radiation, average relative air humidity, and 2-m average wind speed observed by weather stations from INMET as reference data to compared with those estimated by the TRMM system (rainfall) and the ETA model (for other variables). It was used three crop years (2006/07 to 2008/09) for comparison and generation of the adjustment models and the three subsequent crop years (2009/10 to 2010/11) for validation. Results showed high correlation (r) between rainfall data retrieved from TRMM and INMET for most crop years and the estimate accuracy was low altered after the adjustment by the mathematical model. In general, for average air temperature, downward short wave radiation, and average relative air humidity, results showed moderate correlation between ETA and INMET data. Moreover, the majority of the ETA data was improved when the mathematical models were applied. For 2-m average wind speed, results showed very low correlation between ETA and INMET data.

Le plateau des Guyanes est une région qui est caractérisée à 90% d’une forêt tropicale primaire et compte pour environ 20% des réserves mondiales d’eau douce. Ce territoire naturel, au vaste réseau hydrographique, montre des intensités pluviométriques annuelles atteignant 4000 mm/an ; ce qui fait de ce plateau une des régions les plus arrosées du monde. De plus les précipitations tropicales sont caractérisées par une variabilité spatiale et temporelle importante. Outre les aspects liés au climat, l’impact des précipitations dans cette région du globe est important en termes d’alimentation énergétique (barrages hydroélectriques). Il est donc important de développer des outils permettant d’estimer quantitativement et qualitativement et à haute résolution spatiale et temporelle les précipitations dans cette zone. Cependant ce vaste espace géographique est caractérisé par un réseau de stations pluviométriques peu développé et hétérogène, ce qui a pour conséquence une méconnaissance de la répartition spatio-temporelle précise des précipitations et de leurs dynamiques.Les travaux réalisées dans cette thèse visent à améliorer la connaissance des précipitations sur le plateau des Guyanes grâce à l’utilisation des données de précipitations satellites (Satellite Precipitation Product : SPP) qui offrent dans cette zone une meilleure résolution spatiale et temporelle que les mesures in situ, au prix d’une qualité moindre en terme de précision.Cette thèse se divise en 3 parties. La première partie compare les performances de quatre produits d’estimations satellitaires sur la zone d’étude et tente de répondre à la question : quelle est la qualité de ces produits au Nord de l’Amazone et sur la Guyane française dans les dimensions spatiales et temporelles ? La seconde partie propose une nouvelle technique de correction de biais des SPP qui procède en trois étapes : i) utiliser les mesures in situ de précipitations pour décomposer la zone étudiée en aires hydro-climatiques ii) paramétrer une méthode de correction de biais appelée quantile mapping sur chacune de ces aires iii) appliquer la méthode de correction aux données satellitaires relatives à chaque aire hydro-climatique. On cherche alors à répondre à la question suivante : est-ce que le paramétrage de la méthode quantile mapping sur différentes aires hydro-climatiques permet de corriger les données satellitaires de précipitations sur la zone d’étude ? Après avoir montré l’intérêt de prendre en compte les différents régimes pluviométriques pour mettre en œuvre la méthode de correction QM sur des données SPP, la troisième partie analyse l’impact de la résolution temporelle des données de précipitations utilisées sur la qualité de la correction et sur l’étendue spatiale des données SPP potentiellement corrigeables (données SPP sur lesquelles la méthode de correction peut s’appliquer avec efficacité). Concrètement l’objectif de cette partie est d’évaluer la capacité de notre méthode à corriger sur une large échelle spatiale le biais des données TRMM-TMPA 3B42V7 en vue de rendre pertinente l’exploitation de ce produit pour différentes applications hydrologiques.Ce travail a permis de corriger les séries satellites journalières à haute résolution spatiale et temporelle sur le plateau des Guyanes selon une approche nouvelle qui utilise la définition de zones hydro-climatiques. Les résultats positifs en terme de réduction du biais et du RMSE obtenus grâce à cette nouvelle approche, rendent possible la généralisation de cette nouvelle méthode dans des zones peu équipées en pluviomètres. / The Guiana Shield is a region that is characterized by 90% of a primary rainforest and about 20% of the world’s freshwater reserves. This natural territory, with its vast hydrographic network, shows annual rainfall intensities up to 4000 mm/year; making this plateau one of the most watered regions in the world. In addition, tropical rainfall is characterized by significant spatial and temporal variability. In addition to climate-related aspects, the impact of rainfall in this region of the world is significant in terms of energy supply (hydroelectric dams). It is therefore important to develop tools to estimate quantitatively and qualitatively and at high spatial and temporal resolution the precipitation in this area. However, this vast geographical area is characterized by a network of poorly developed and heterogeneous rain gauges, which results in a lack of knowledge of the precise spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation and their dynamics.The work carried out in this thesis aims to improve the knowledge of precipitation on the Guiana Shield by using Satellite Precipitation Product (SPP) data that offer better spatial and temporal resolution in this area than the in situ measurements, at the cost of poor quality in terms of precision.This thesis is divided into 3 parts. The first part compares the performance of four products of satellite estimates on the study area and attempts to answer the question : what is the quality of these products in the Northern Amazon and French Guiana in spatial and time dimensions ? The second part proposes a new SPP bias correction technique that proceeds in three steps: i) using rain gauges measurements to decompose the studied area into hydro climatic areas ii) parameterizing a bias correction method called quantile mapping on each of these areas iii) apply the correction method to the satellite data for each hydro-climatic area. We then try to answer the following question : does the parameterization of the quantile mapping method on different hydro-climatic areas make it possible to correct the precipitation satellite data on the study area ? After showing the interest of taking into account the different rainfall regimes to implement the QM correction method on SPP data, the third part analyzes the impact of the temporal resolution of the precipitation data used on the quality of the correction and the spatial extent of potentially correctable SPP data (SPP data on which the correction method can be applied effectively). In summary, the objective of this section is to evaluate the ability of our method to correct on a large spatial scale the bias of the TRMM-TMPA 3B42V7 data in order to make the exploitation of this product relevant for different hydrological applications.This work made it possible to correct the daily satellite series with high spatial and temporal resolution on the Guiana Shield using a new approach that uses the definition of hydro-climatic areas. The positive results in terms of reduction of the bias and the RMSE obtained, thanks to this new approach, makes possible the generalization of this new method in sparselygauged areas.

In this study, the relationship of above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) with precipitation using the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from satellite data as surrogate for ANPP was assessed. To use EVI as a proxy for ANPP we extracted the satellite data from areas with uniform vegetation in a 2x2 km area for the multi-site approach.In the multi-site analysis in the United States our results showed a strong exponential relationship between iEVI and annual precipitation across the sites and climate regimes studied. We found convergence of all sites toward common and maximum rain use efficiency under the water-limited conditions represented by the driest year at each site. Measures of inter-annual variability in iEVI with rainfall variation across biomes were similar to that reported by Knapp and Smith (2001) in which the more herbaceous dominant sites were found to be most sensitive to interannual variations in precipitation with no relationships found in woodland sites.The relationship was also evaluated in the southern hemisphere using a multi-site analysis with information from satellite TRMM for precipitation and MOD13Q1 from MODIS for EVI values at calendar and hydrologic year periods. The tested sites were located across the 6 major land cover types inAustralia, obtained from MODIS MCD12Q1 product and used to compare the relationship across different biomes. The results showed significant agreement between the annual iEVI and annual precipitation across the biomes involved in this study showing non-significant differences between the calendar and hydrologic years for the 24 sites across different climatic conditions.At the regional scale we also assessed the ANPP-precipitation relationship across all of Australia. Precipitation data from TRMM was obtained at 0.25x0.25 degrees spatial resolution and monthly temporal resolution and EVI values were obtained from the CGM (Climate Grid Modeling) MOD13C1-16-days and 5.6km temporal and spatial resolutions, respectively. Our results were in fair agreement with those from our first two studies and previous research and provided specific insights regarding the use iEVI as a proxy for productivity over extended regions as well as its combination with data sets from TRMM sensor for precipitation data.

Identifying the dynamical processes that are active in tropical cirrus clouds is important for understanding the role of cirrus in the tropical atmosphere. This study focuses on analyzing turbulent motions inside tropical anvil cirrus with the use of a Cloud Resolving Model. Convection in the transition from shallow to deep convection has been simulated with Colorado State University Large Eddy Simulator/Cloud Resolving Model System for Atmospheric Model (SAM 6.3) in a high resolution three-dimensional simulation and anvil cirrus formed in the end of this simulation has been analyzed. For model set up, data gathered during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (TRMM LBA) field experiment in Amazonas, Brazil have been used as large scale forcing. 31 anvil clouds have been localized from a single time step of the simulation, “a snapshot”, of the entire simulated cloud field consisting of convective clouds of different scales and subsequently divided into three categories that represent different stages of the anvil lifetime; growing, mature and dissipating anvil stages. The classification is based on in-cloud properties such as cloud condensate content and vertical velocities. The simulated anvils have been analyzed both individually and as groups to examine the transition from isotropic three-dimensional turbulence in the convective core of the thunderstorm to stratified two-dimensional turbulence in the anvil outflow. A dimensionless number F is derived and used as a measure of the “isotropic” behavior of the turbulence inside the cloud. F is expressed as the ratio between the horizontal part of TKE and the total (horizontal + vertical) Experiments show that SAM 6.3 clearly can resolve turbulent structures and that the transition from isotropic three-dimensional turbulence to stratified two-dimensional turbulence occurs in the middle layers of the mature and dissipating anvil stages. / Sammanfattning av ”Studier av turbulenta rörelser i städmoln med hjälp av numeriska simuleringar av tropisk konvektion”  Städmoln i tropikerna har stor inverkan på strålningsballansen på grund av de är så vanligt förekommande och att de ligger på hög höjd i atmosfären. Att förstå de drivande krafterna som är aktiva i skapandet och underhållandet av städmoln är viktiga för att få en bra bild av rollen städmoln spelar i den tropiska atmosfären. Den här uppsatsen fokuserar på att studera turbulenta rörelser inuti tropiska städmoln med hjälp av en molnmodell. Tropisk konvektion har simulerats med Colorado State University’s molnmodell SAM 6.3 i en högupplöst tredimensionell simulering. Data från en ”ögonblicksbild” av det simulerade molnfältet har analyserats och 31 städmoln har valts ut och studerats vidare. De simulerade städmolnen indelades i tre olika kategorier baserat på utvecklingsstadier; växande städmoln, moget städmoln och skingrade städmoln. Stadieklassificeringen bestämdes beroende på isvatteninnehåll och vertikalhastigheter i molnet. Städmolnen har därefter analyserats både individuellt och som grupper för att lokalisera och analysera övergången från tredimensionell isotropisk turbulens i kärnan av Cb-molnet till tvådimensionell stratifierad turbulens i städmolnet. För att initiera simuleringen användes mätdata insamlade under fältexperimentet TRMM LBA (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere) i Amazonas, Brasilien. För att beskriva turbulenta rörelser i molnen togs det dimensionslösa talet 𝐹 fram som ett mått på isotropin. 𝐹 uttrycks som kvoten mellan den horisontella delen av TKE och den totala (horisontell och vertikal). Den här studien visar att den undersökta molnmodellen SAM 6.3 klart kan simulera turbulenta i rörelser i övergången mellan isotropisk till horisontell turbulens i olika stadier av städmolnens livscykel. Mina analyser visar att övergången sker främst i de mellersta skikten av de mogna och skingrade stadierna av städmolnets utveckling.

Depuis 2005, le Mato Grosso est devenu le premier Etat producteur de soja du Brésil. Cette évolution est le résultat de la progression d'un front pionnier qui a apporté un développement socioéconomique indéniable, mais a entraîné une déforestation intense. Cette thèse vise à définir l'état des interactions climat / société au Mato Grosso en déterminant le rôle de la dynamique du soja en tant que moteur du front pionnier et en évaluant comment les précipitations sont un facteur guidant l'évolution des territoires du soja. Ces dynamiques sont étudiées à partir de classifications de séries temporelles de données satellitaires MODIS TERRA/EVI. Les résultats indiquent que l'expansion agricole entre 2000 et 2007 explique 12% de la déforestation au Mato Grosso ; 71% des nouvelles cultures de soja au Mato Grosso ont été semées sur des parcelles anciennement défrichées. Actuellement, le secteur agricole semble rentrer dans une nouvelle phase de développement axée sur l'intensification agricole : 46% de l'augmentation de la production agricole est due à des changements de pratiques culturales. Ceci est la conséquence de l'adoption de systèmes de production en double cultures commerciales qui concernent 30% des surfaces agricoles en 2007 (contre 6% en 2000). Ces changements sont affectés par une forte variabilité spatiale qui est notamment liée aux conditions pluviométriques (cumul annuel, début, fin et durée de la saison des pluies). Celles-ci sont déterminées à partir des estimations de précipitations des produits TRMM 3B42. Les résultats démontrent que les régions les plus intensives sont celles où la saison des pluies est la plus longue et où le volume précipité est le plus important.

Wireless communications systems of all types must deliver reliable connections to the end users to be accepted by the public. The reliability of these systems is composed of two aspects. The first aspect is the reliability of the actual hardware and software composing the device and is completely under the control of the designers of the equipment. The second aspect of reliability or availability is the wireless propagation link connecting the users. This link is very difficult to model exactly and is composed of a fixed propagation loss plus random elements of propagation loss.This thesis focuses on the propagation links associated with satellite communications systems (Satcom). The fixed portion of the link loss in this case is the "spreading loss" or free space loss which occurs due to the large distance between the user and the satellite. The random portion of the link loss in these systems is due to many things such as rain, absorption, shadowing, multipath and cross polarization effects. However the major element associated with fades in Satcom systems is rain and the fades associated with rain. Rain becomes an even more dominate term in the situation as higher frequencies are used to obtain the increases in bandwidths required to accommodate the increases in use. Rain fades on the satellite links are modeled as random processes whose parameters are given in RECOMMENDATION ITU-R P.837-5 of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). Over the years this recommendation has been revised and the current revision is 837-5 as indicated above. However, the data used to develop these models has always come from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts based upon data measured at approximately 100 stations around the world. Since 1998 satellite sensory data is available for the tropics which directly measures rain data in this area. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a join satellite project involving the USA and Japan. As a result of the availability of TRMM data it is possible to improve the statistical rain rate models for the tropical regions of the world. Recently a number of researchers (T.V, Omotosho, C.O. Oluwafemi, C Prabhakara et all) have begun to use TRMM data to improve the rain rate and rain fade estimates. The ITU has also begun to study using TRMM data in their recommendations. In this thesis the TRMM data is used to construct a rain rate and rain fade models for the Indian sub-continent as well as other parts of the tropics. This model is compared to the predictions based upon the ITU 837-5 models and substantial differences are found in the heavy rain fall areas. India is currently building a satellite (GSAT-4) to measure rain fades at 20/30 GHz and it is hoped that these results can be used to compare with the measured GSAT-4 data when it is available.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-14T12:09:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 7249641 bytes, checksum: 530262ccdecfb3b77d7356a51a29f342 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-15 / Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq / The spatial and temporal variability is a precipitation feature and constitutes a factor of complexity for developing rainfall studies. Moreover, the low density of rain gauge stations and errors in data collection in the field increase the difficulties in implementing studies in this research area. However, such researches are essential considering that it is from them that we can carry out flood and drought forecasts, understand the hydrological regime of rivers, soil moisture, temperature changes, among others. Thus, the spatial rainfall estimates obtained through satellites data are important because, although present uncertainties, when compared with punctual data measured in the field can provide good indicators of the spatial distribution of rainfall for a given area. In this research, we evaluate the potential of rainfall estimates from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) sensor to represent the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation in the State of Paraíba, in the Northeast of Brazil. In this study we considered daily time series of 14 years length of rainfall data collected by AESA (Agência Executiva de Gestão das Águas do Estado da Paraíba) in 269 rainfall gauges and rainfall data estimated from TRMM satellite for a spatial mesh of 198 grid points covering the Paraíba State and which have been interpolated to the rain gauge locations using the inverse squared distance method. Comparisons were made considering the accumulated rainfall in different periods of time: daily, three days, seven days and monthly. With respect to spatial factors, the comparisons were developed based on punctual values in rain gauges stations, areal averages over sub-basins and mesoregions, and topographic profile. The statistical analyzes of comparison between the observed and estimated rainfall were developed based on the average rainfall, the linear correlations, the mean absolute error and root mean square error considering each accumulated period. Regarding the daily precipitation, the majority of the rain gauges (91%) showed correlation coefficients ranging from 0.5 to 0.7. This correlation increases for considering 3 days-rainfall, with values ranging from 0.5 to 0.7 in 56% of rain gauges, and of 0.7-0.8 for 42% of rain gauges. For the 7 days-rainfall, 58% of the rain gauges presented correlations ranging from 0.7 to 0.8, while for the monthly rainfall 95% of the rain gauges obtained correlations higher than 0.8. Therefore, the results indicate that the TRMM satellite provides better estimates when data are accumulated in larger time intervals. The monthly analysis showed that March and April are the months with higher correlation between observed and estimated precipitation, and that in the first months of the year the estimated and observed values have better approximations for all types of analyzes. It was also verified a good estimation potential in the analysis of seasonal variability of precipitation. Moreover, it was observed that the satellite presents the largest errors in the areas with the largest amount of rainfall. In the sub-basins and in the mesoregions of the state the rainfall regime was estimated quite closely. We concluded that the TRMM satellite presents very good skill in reproducing the observed rainfall measured in the gauge stations over the Paraíba state, becoming an important data source for helping the water resources planning and decision making / A variabilidade temporal e espacial, que é um elemento característico da precipitação pluvial se configura como um fator de complexidade para as pesquisas sobre chuvas. Além disso, a baixa densidade de postos pluviométricos e os equívocos nos processos de coleta em campo aumentam as dificuldades na execução de estudos nessa área de pesquisa. No entanto, tais pesquisas são essenciais tendo em vista que é a partir delas que se pode fazer previsão de enchentes e estiagens, compreender o regime hidrológico dos rios, a umidade do solo, as mudanças de temperatura, dentre outras. Assim, as estimativas espaciais de precipitação realizadas por satélites são técnicas importantes, pois, embora contenham incertezas, quando comparadas com valores pontuais medidos em solo podem fornecer bons indicativos da distribuição espacial das chuvas para uma determinada área. Nesta pesquisa, avalia-se o potencial das estimativas de chuva do satélite TRMM, versão 7 e 3B42 (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) para representar a variabilidade espaço-temporal da precipitação no Estado da Paraíba, no Nordeste do Brasil. No estudo considerou-se séries temporais de dados diários para um período de 14 anos (1998-2011) fornecidas pela AESA (Agência Executiva de Gestão das Águas do Estado da Paraíba) referentes a 269 postos pluviométricos e dados estimados pelo satélite TRMM numa malha espacial de 198 pontos que cobrem o Estado da Paraíba e que foram interpolados para os locais de observação de campo pelo método do inverso do quadrado da distância. As comparações foram realizadas considerando a chuva acumulada em diferentes períodos: diário, três dias, sete dias e mensal. Com relação aos fatores espaciais, os comparativos foram desenvolvidos com base em valores pontuais nos locais de observação, médias espaciais considerando sub-bacias, mesorregiões, e perfil topográfico. As análises estatísticas de comparação entre a chuva observada e a estimada foram desenvolvidas a partir das médias de chuva, das correlações lineares, do erro médio absoluto e da raiz do erro médio quadrático considerando cada período acumulado. Nas análises da chuva diária a maioria dos postos (91%) apresentou índices de correlação variando de 0,5 a 0,7. Esta correlação aumenta para os acumulados de 3 dias, com valores que variam de 0,5 a 0,7 em 56% dos postos pluviométricos e de 0,7 a 0,8 em 42% dos postos. Nos acumulados de 7 dias, 58% dos pluviômetros apresentaram correlações que variam de 0,7 a 0,8 e nos acumulados mensais 95% dos postos apresentam correlações superiores a 0,8. Portanto, os resultados indicam que o satélite TRMM apresenta melhores estimativas quando os dados estão acumulados em intervalos maiores de tempo. Na análise mensal verificou-se que março e abril são os meses mais significativos de estimação e que nos primeiros meses do ano os valores estimados e observados apresentam melhores aproximações para todos os tipos de análises. Identificou-se também bom potencial de estimação na análise da variabilidade sazonal de precipitação. Além disso, observou-se que o satélite apresenta os maiores erros para as áreas onde ocorrem os maiores volumes de chuva. Nas sub-bacias e nas mesorregiões do Estado, o regime de chuvas foi estimado com bastante fidelidade em todas as formas analisadas. Conclui-se que o satélite TRMM apresenta bom desempenho para reproduzir as chuvas observadas em pluviômetros no Estado da Paraíba, configurando-se como uma importante fonte de dados para o auxílio no planejamento e na tomada de decisões relativas aos recursos hídricos