京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(法学) / 甲第22024号 / 法博第236号 / 新制||法||166(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院法学研究科法政理論専攻 / (主査)教授 中西 寛, 教授 鈴木 基史, 教授 島田 幸典 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Laws / Kyoto University / DGAM

Why do some allies restructure their existing alliance relationships which they once favored, but some do not? In what ways do allies restructure their alliances? Historically interstate military alliances change their original agreements more than they remain the same, and the average duration of bilateral alliances is less than a decade. Theoretically, previous works have paid great attention mostly to the formation and duration of alliances. Answers to the above basic questions have been largely indeterminate, despite the fact that when allies change their original agreements, it reshapes the behaviors of both allies and non-allies. This study argues that when a state grows more powerful relative to its neighbors and external powers; and experiences a domestic regime change, the state is likely to restructure its exiting alliance relationship. These external and internal changes since the alliance formation cause the state’s original preference on the arms-and-allies balance to shift, and the state has greater incentive to restructure the existing alliance by way of dealignment, expiration, or renewal. In order to test the argument, this study first provides the quantitative results by testing 142 post-WWII alliances formed from 1946 to 2000, and identifies the statistically significant and substantial effects of three factors, capabilities increase, regime change (democratization and authoritarianization), and government change (both leadership and supporting coalition change), on the state’s alliance restructuring. Then this study qualitatively tests the quantitative findings and traces the causal process through case studies for three U.S. alliances in East Asia (the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan). The Philippine alliance restructuring in 1992 is examined as a typical case demonstrating that the argument empirically works. Then this study investigates why South Korea did not restructure the alliance with the U.S. in the 1990s even though the external and internal factors suggest that it would restructure. Lastly, the U.S.-Japan alliance case in 2009-2010 is examined to assess the explanatory power of the argument beyond the data population. An alliance restructuring can significantly affect an individual state’s security positively or negatively, therefore state leaders must continue to pay a close attention to the management of alliances.

The aim of this thesis is to analyze the crisis of two important allies, Japan and the US, which began in relation to the negotiation during the rule of the Prime Minister Hatoyama about the relocation of the controversial Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, which is located on the Okinawa Island. This thesis firstly reconstructs the historical context of the U.S.-Japan alliance and the role of the bases in it. The importance of the peace movement, which is still a vocal player of the Okinawa events today, is also mentioned. Then this paper examines the feature of the bases, especially of the Futenma Air Station. Another key part of the paper is made by description of the processes, which targeted reducing of the burden of Okinawa people, caused by the presence of the bases on Japanese ground. The Futenma became the main symbolof these negotiations. In it main part, based on the level of analysis concept, this thesis provides the analysis of the negotiations of the three actors of the 2009-2010 crisis - the Prime Minister Hatoyama and his cabinet, who came out of the elections with the programme of changing the government system (seiken kōtai) and the revision of the former Futenma Henoko relocation plan; the Obama administration, which persisted on the Henoko plan; and the people of Okinawa, who are...

本文以「新現實主義」(neorealism)，或被稱為「結構現實主義」(structural realism)做為研究途徑，從國際政治系統層次體系，探究美國在二十一世紀後，所進行的東亞軍力調整。本文首先檢視二十一世紀後東亞戰略環境，以及美國的兩位總統，小布希(George W. Bush)，以及歐巴馬(Barrack Obama)，的面對這樣的東亞安全環境，採取的戰略與政策儘管有不同，但同樣在軍事及外交上，強化與東亞國家之關係，藉以建構一個對美國有利的東亞安全環境，藉以面對來自崛起中國的挑戰。接著，本文將探究美國與中國之關係，藉以釐清美國在進行東亞軍力調整中，如何處理中國的因素後，探討美國在二十一世紀後，在東亞進行的軍力調整的原因、方針以及概況，以及美國的東亞盟邦在軍力調整後所扮演的角色，並探究美國在東亞軍力整編時所面對的困境與挑戰。 本文發現，二十一世紀美國進行東亞軍力調整之時，也反應了其東亞外交與安全戰略，以及美國建構一個以「美日同盟」為主軸的安全戰略體系已經形成，並由美國的其他東亞盟邦輔助支援。然而，美國的東亞軍力調整，也面臨了許多困難與挑戰，包括美國東亞盟邦，甚至美國自身的問題等。 最後，本文也建議未來可針對抑制中國軍事能力的戰略，以及台灣在美國東亞安全戰略可以扮演的角色進行研究。 / The research approach used in this dissertation is neorealism (structural realism). From the system of level in the international politics, this dissertation explore how the United States conducted its military realignment in East Asia. Firstly, this dissertation will examine the security environment of East Asia in the twenty-first century. Although two U.S. Presidents, George W. Bush and Barrack Obama, adopted different policies when facing such an East Asia security environment, they both strengthened relations with Asia-Pacific countries militarily and diplomatically. They intended to construct an East Asian security environment favorable for U.S. interests so that U.S. can face the challenges from the rising China. Later on, this dissertation will explore U.S.-Chinese relations to clarify how U.S. handle Chinese factors in its military realignment in East Asia. Besides, this dissertation will explore the reasons, policies, how U.S. proceed its military realignment, and the roles played by U.S. allies and partners. Finally, this dissertation will examine the difficulties and challenges that U.S. will have faced in its military realignment. This dissertation finds that U.S. military realignment in East Asia reflects its diplomacy and security strategy. Meanwhile, an U.S. security strategy based on U.S.-Japan alliance has established, with the support from other U.S. allies and partners in East Asia. However, the U.S. indeed faces difficulties and challenges, including problems from its allies and even the U.S. itself. Lastly, this dissertation suggest some research directions in the future, including a strategy which can suppress Chinese capabilities, and the role that Taiwan can play in the comprehensive U.S. East Asia security strategy.