A novel approach is proposed for modeling of structurally variable regions in proteins. In this approach, a prerequisite sequence-structure alignment is examined for regions where the target sequence is not covered by the structural template. These regions, extended with a number of residues from adjacent stem regions, are submitted to fold recognition. The alignments produced by fold recognition are integrated into the initial alignment to create a multiple alignment where gaps in the main structural template are covered by local structural templates. This multiple alignment is used to create a protein model by existing protein modeling techniques. Several alternative parameters are evaluated using a set of ten proteins. One set of parameters is selected and evaluated using another set of 31 proteins. The most promising result is for loop regions not located at the C- or N-terminal of a protein, where the method produces an average RMSD 12% lower than the loop modeling provided with the program MODELLER. This improvement is shown to be statistically significant.

Correlated ordinal data typically arise from multiple measurements on a collection of subjects. Motivated by an application in credit risk, where multiple credit rating agencies assess the creditworthiness of a firm on an ordinal scale, we consider multivariate ordinal models with a latent variable specification and correlated error terms. Two different link functions are employed, by assuming a multivariate normal and a multivariate logistic distribution for the latent variables underlying the ordinal outcomes. Composite likelihood methods, more specifically the pairwise and tripletwise likelihood approach, are applied for estimating the model parameters. We investigate how sensitive the pairwise likelihood estimates are to the number of subjects and to the presence of observations missing completely at random, and find that these estimates are robust for both link functions and reasonable sample size. The empirical application consists of an analysis of corporate credit ratings from the big three credit rating agencies (Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch). Firm-level and stock price data for publicly traded US companies as well as an incomplete panel of issuer credit ratings are collected and analyzed to illustrate the proposed framework. / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Rice cultivation is on fundamental importance to the state s economy, where there is a need for improvements in productivity and profitability of farming located. This paper aimed to evaluate the production costs of the implementation of a rice farming using techniques of Precision Agriculture to obtain better productive incomes. The experiment was performed in the city of Rosário do Sul RS, in constant cultivation and with rotation of the rice, soy and grazing crops. The studied area is a section of 55 hectares and the methodology implemented was the comparative of two consecutive years of irrigated rice cultivation, being the crop in a conventional fertilization system in 2012/2013 and in 2013/2014 the cultivation was with the implementation of Precision Agriculture techniques. Necessary tools for the soil geo-referenced sampling were used to implement the Precision Agriculture techniques, and the recommendation and elaboration of input application maps. Through the obtained analysis, recommended corrections were made with the application of chalk, potassium and phosphorus in a variable rate, for goals of high crop efficiency. The result of the experiment determined a production cost for the implementation of precision agriculture techniques of 30,20% higher than the conventional crop cost. Respectively, it was also obtained an efficiency of 14,30% higher and profitability of 10,85% higher than the conventional crop. The reevaluation of the soil after the crop of 2013/2014 showed a significant improvement on the chemical attributes of the soil, justifying the high initial investment of the techniques implementation. Besides, the economic viability to purchase the centrifugal destributor was analyzed. This acquisition seemed to be economically viable for areas bigger than 200 hectares, if compared to the cost of service provider companies. / A cultura do arroz é de fundamental importância para a economia do Estado, onde há a necessidade de melhorias na produtividade e rentabilidade da lavoura implantada. Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar os custos de produção da implantação de uma lavoura orizícola utilizando técnicas de Agricultura de Precisão visando a obtenção de melhores rendimentos produtivos. O experimento foi realizado no município de Rosário do Sul RS, em área de cultivo contínuo com rotações das culturas de arroz, soja e pastagens. A área analisada foi um talhão de 55 hectares e a metodologia aplicada constituiu de um comparativo de dois anos consecutivos de cultivo de arroz irrigado, sendo na safra 2012/2013 o cultivo no sistema convencional de adubação e na safra 2013/2014 o cultivo com a implantação de técnicas de agricultura de precisão. Para a implantação das técnicas de AP utilizou-se as ferramentas necessárias para a amostragem georreferenciada do solo, a interpretação dos atributos químicos do solo, recomendação e elaboração dos mapas de aplicação de insumos. Através da análise obtida, fizeram-se as correções recomendadas com a aplicação de calcário, potássio e fósforo em taxa variável, para metas de alta produtividade da cultura. O resultado do experimento determinou um custo de produção para a implantação de técnicas de Agricultura de Precisão de 30,20% superior ao custo do cultivo de maneira convencional. Respectivamente, obteve-se também uma produtividade de 14,30% superior e lucratividade de 10,85% superior ao cultivo convencional. A reanálise do solo após a safra 2013/2014 mostrou uma melhora significativa nos atributos químicos, justificando o alto investimento inicial da implantação das técnicas. Além disso, foi analisada a viabilidade econômica da aquisição de distribuidor centrífugo, para a realização das aplicações de insumos em taxa variável. Esta aquisição se mostrou economicamente viável para áreas maiores de 200 ha, se comparados com o custo de empresas prestadoras de serviço.

Two groups of human subjects pressed buttons on five different variable-interval (VI) reinforcement schedules presented for seven minutes each for 15 sessions. At session 16, the same VI schedules were programmed concurrently in each session either with or without a 5 s changeover delay (COD). The same schedule-correlated stimuli were employed in single and concurrent conditions. Two other groups responded on concurrent VI VI conditions from the first session with or without the COD. Response allocations under concurrent scheduling better approximated relative reinforcement frequencies when the COD was programmed. Subjects with single VI histories failed to match response and time allocations to reinforcement ratios better than subjects given no such history. Bidirectional cumulative records are discussed as a molecular data analysis technique.

This work discusses the detection of latent variables, which create indices of economic freedom. Firstly, we present the most well-known indices of economic freedom (IEF, EFW). Secondly, this work discusses multivariate statistical method - factor analysis, which we use to detect latent variables. We show different methods of estimates in factor analysis and we focus on principal factor method. Furthermore, we compare already defined methods by analysing the structure of EFW index. According to estimated models, we interpret detected latent variables. We use statistical software SPSS and R for factor analysis of EFW index.

The selection of variables problem is ussual problem of statistical analysis. Solving this problem via Bayesian statistic become popular in 1990s. We re- view classical methods for bayesian variable selection methods and set a common framework for them. Indicator model selection methods and adaptive shrinkage methods for normal linear model are covered. Main benefit of this work is incorporating Bayesian theory and Markov Chain Monte Carlo theory (MCMC). All derivations needed for MCMC algorithms is provided. Afterward the methods are apllied on simulated and real data. 1

Friction Stir Welding (FSW) was used to perform a Design of Experiment (DOE) to determine the welding parameters effects on yielding consistent mechanical properties across the length of the weld. The travel speed was varied across set forge force and RPM conditions, to find a dataset that will yield consistent mechanical properties independent of the travel speed. Six different welds were completed on two different aluminum panels, the advancing side being Aluminum alloy 2195-T8 at a thickness of .350”, with the retreating side being Aluminum alloy 2219-T851 with a gauge thickness of .360”. A Left-hand Right-hand self-reacting pin tool was used for each weld. The mechanical properties of interest are the Ultimate Tensile Strength, Yield Strength, Elasticity and Hardness. The strengths were evaluated by tensile testing, with the Elasticity being measure post break. Specimens were then polished where macrograph and micrograph analysis was completed. Micro-hardness testing was then completed on the weld nuggets.

In marketing, behaviour of users is analysed in order to discover which channels (for instance TV, Social media etc.) are important for increasing the user’s intention to buy a product. The search for better channel attribution models than the common last-click model is of major concern for the industry of marketing. In this thesis, a probabilistic model for channel attribution has been developed, and this model is demonstrated to be more data-driven than the conventional last- click model. The modelling includes an attempt to include the time aspect in the modelling which have not been done in previous research. Our model is based on studying different sequence length and computing conditional probabilities of conversion by using logistic regression models. A clickstream dataset from an online store was analysed using the proposed model. This thesis has revealed proof of that the last-click model is not optimal for conducting these kinds of analyses.

D.Phil. / We propose solutions to two statistical problems using the frequency domain approach to time series analysis. In both problems the data at hand can be described by the well known signal plus noise model. The first problem addressed is the estimation of the underlying variance of a process for the use in a Shewhart or CUSUM control chart when the mean of the process may be changing. We propose an estimator for the underlying variance based on the periodogram of the observed data. Such estimators have properties which make them superior to some estimators currently used in Statistical Quality Control. We also present a CUSUM chart for monitoring the variance which is based upon the periodogram-based estimator for the variance. The second problem, stimulated by a specific problem in Variable Star Astronomy, is to test whether or not the mean of a bivariate time series is constant over the span of observations. We consider two periodogram-based tests for constancy of the mean, derive their asymptotic distributions under the null hypothesis and under local alternatives and show how consistent estimators for the unknown parameters in the proposed model can be found

In this study, individually written essays are compared with interactively written chat texts with the aim to investigate, describe and to some extent explain what happens to the language and the writing during a chat session. Students in a Swedish upper secondary school studying Spanish A2 completed two jigsaw tasks through writing and the texts were analyzed from a descriptive grammatical and stylistic perspective through variable analysis. In the results, the essays tended to be more complex syntactically whereas the chat texts showed more variation and accuracy regarding verb conjugation. As to fluency (text length), number of clauses and verbal forms there were no major differences. Chatting in school environment seemed to become semiformal in this study, with many incomplete sentences and interjections, but with few extra-linguistic signs and only some decline in the usage of accents. A challenging feature of the chat practice is that the interactivity makes the final text result an inseparable entity of two individual texts both regarding content and language. At the same time the interactivity could be the reason for the higher variation and accuracy of the verb conjugation in the chat texts of this study.