Abstract With the processing of globalization and the large increases in international trade and openness, it is important to capture the business cycle correlation with the intimate countries for government to make better policies and keep the economy steady. This study investigated the changes in relationships between the G7 business cycle after the European integration. Choosing 1993 the Europe Union (EU) commencement as the segment, we separated the sample period into 1965:1-1992:4 and 1993:1-2006:4.We adopted kinds of unit root tests to exam if these variables were stationary and the Johansen co-integration analysis to test whether the stationary long-run equilibrium exist or not. With the consideration of long run information, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was applied to study the relationship between the business cycles of United State, EU and the other G7 countries. By Johansen co-integration analysis, we found that the stationary long-run relationship did exist between their industrial productions¡]IP¡^. In addition, the VECM evidence supported the emergence of two cyclically coherent groups -- the Euro-zone and the English-speaking countries -- after the EU commencement in 1993. In conclusion, with the greater correlation of business cycles, the party in office should take account of the business cycle movement of the closed countries more deliberately in this regionalization era.

Since petroleum is a kind of exhaustive resource, it can not be regenerated after being consumed. And petroleum is distributed extremely uneven in the world, more than half of petroleum is distributed in the Middle East area. In the recent years, the oil price was so fluctuating and broke the record again and again. However, the productivity of petroleum in Taiwan is very low and we are a price taker. So it turns to be important that how the oil price affects the economy. According to Economics, high oil price often causes the staginflation. In the purpose of this study we examine the long run relationship between oil price and personal income in Taiwan by cointegration theory. And we find that there indeed exists a negative longrun relationship. In addition, we consider a nonlinear model, Threshold Vector Error Correction Model, to test a threhold effect in the long run relationship between variables. Finally we have a result that there is a threshold cointegrating relationship between the oil price and personal income in Taiwan.

Using both single and vector processes, we fitted the Box-Jenkin’s ARIMA model and the Vector Autoregressive model following the Johansen approach, to forecast soy bean and green bean prices on the Chinese futures markets. The results are encouraging and provide empirical evidence that the vector processes perform better than the single series. The co-integration test indicated that the null hypothesis of no co-integration among the relevant variables could be rejected. This is one of the most important findings in this paper. The purposes for analyzing and modeling the series jointly are to understand the dynamic relationships over time among the series and improve the accuracy of forecasts for individuals series by utilizing the additional information available from the related series in the forecasts for each series.

The purpose of this essay is to answer the following questions: Has the increased e-commerce had a negative impact on the inflation, and is the effect decreasing? and: Is there a long term and/or short term effect by the increased e-commerce on the inflation? To answer the first question a fixed effects regression model is applied, based on panel data for 28 European countries for the time period 2006-2017. The regression obtains results that support the hypothesis that the increased e-commerce has had a negative effect on inflation. Furthermore, the result indicates that the effect is decreasing. The second question is answered with the help of an Error Correction Model and time series data for Sweden during the period 2006-2017. The result shows that there is an error correction towards a long run equilibrium and the short term estimates indicate that there is a negative short term effect of the increased e-commerce on inflation. These results are in line with the hypothesis of this essay as well as previous studies that have examined similar questions.

>Magister Scientiae - MSc / Purpose:This research investigates the existence of long-term equilibrium relationships among the stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). It further investigates cointegrated stock pairs for possible implementation of statistical arbitrage trading techniques.Design:We utilize standard multivariate time series analysis procedures to inspect unit roots to assess stationarity of the series. Thereafter, cointegration is tested by the Johansen and Juselius (1990) procedure and the variables are interpreted by a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Statistical arbitrage is investigated through the pairs trading technique.Findings:The five stock indices are found to be cointegrated. Analysis shows that the cointegration rank among the variables is significantly influenced by structural breaks. Two pairs of stock variables are also found to be cointegrated. This guaranteed the mean reversion property necessary for the successful execution of the pairs trading technique. Determining the optimal spread threshold also proved to be highly significant with respect to the success of this trading technique.Value:This research seeks to expand on the literature covering long-run co-movements of the volatile emerging market indices. Based on the cointegration relation shared by the BRICS, the research also seeks to encourage risk taking when investing. We achieve this by showing the potential rewards that can be realized through employing appropriate statistical arbitrage trading techniques in these markets.

PhD (Advanced Nursing Science) / Department of Advanced Nursing Science / Cervical cancer may be preventable when screening services which detect cancerous cells at an early stage are utilized. Utilization of cervical cancer screening services, taking of Pap smear in particular, is effective if done systematically, that is, yearly or every ten years depending on whether the individual is at risk or not. Failure to utilize cervical cancer screening services predisposes women to cervical cancer because if one is affected, the disease will progress without one being aware. Studies have been carried out in this area, but not much has been done on strategies to promote the utilization of cervical cancer screening services. Purpose The purpose of this study was to develop an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Objective The specific objectives were to explore and describe the provision of cervical cancer screening services by Primary Health Care Nurses (PHCNs); assess the awareness of women on the utilization of cervical cancer screening services; develop an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services and to validate an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services at Vhembe District in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Methodology The research was conducted in three phases. In Phase I, qualitative and quantitative approaches were used. The qualitative approach was used to explore experiences of nurses concerning the provision of cervical cancer screening services and the quantitative approach applied for assessment of the awareness of women on the utilization of cervical screening services. The population in the qualitative approach were PHCNs providing cervical cancer services and, in the quantitative approach, were women aged 20-59. Nonprobability purposive sampling was used to sample 15 PHCNs and 500 women. Ethical considerations, that is, the rights of all the stakeholders were honoured. Data was collected from PHCNs through semi-structured interviews using an interview guide and from women through questionnaires. Reliability and validity of the research was ensured. Qualitative data was analyzed through open-coding and quantitative data through descriptive statistics (frequencies and percentages). ABSTRACT vi Results In Phase II, an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa was developed. The Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis was used to analyze the validity. Political, economic, socio-cultural, technological, environmental factors and laws within the opportunities and threats landscape of cervical cancer screening services in Vhembe District were analyzed. The Build, Overcome, Explore and Minimize (BOEM) paradigm was used to developed the intervention strategy. In Phase III, the qualitative and quantitative approach was used to validate the developed intervention strategies. A purposive sampling was used to sample fifteen PHCNs and 4 four managers. Conclusions Intervention strategies with action plans were developed. Recommendations Recommendations related to implementation of strategies to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services were compiled.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / A persistent problem for hedge fund researchers presents itself in the form of inconsistent and diverse style classifications within and across database providers. For this paper, single-manager hedge funds from the Hedge Fund Research (HFR) and Hedgefund.Net (HFN) databases were classified on the basis of a common factor, extracted using the factor axis methodology. It was assumed that the returns of all sample hedge funds are attributable to a common factor that is shared across hedge funds within one classification, and a specific factor that is unique to a particular hedge fund. In contrast to earlier research and the application of principal component analysis, factor axis has sought to determine how much of the covariance in the dataset is due to common factors (communality). Factor axis largely ignores the diagonal elements of the covariance matrix and orthogonal factor rotation maximises the covariance between hedge fund return series. In an iterative framework, common factors were extracted until all return series were described by one common and one specific factor. Prior to factor extraction, the series was tested for autoregressive moving-average processes and the residuals of such models were used in further analysis to improve upon squared correlations as initial factor estimates. The methodology was applied to 120 ten-year rolling estimation windows in the July 1990 to June 2010 timeframe. The results indicate that the number of distinct style classifications is reduced in comparison to the arbitrary self-selected classifications of the databases. Single manager hedge funds were grouped in portfolios on the basis of the common factor they share. In contrast to other classification methodologies, these common factor portfolios (CFPs) assume that some unspecified individual component of the hedge fund constituents’ returns is diversified away and that single manager hedge funds should be classified according to their common return components. From the CFPs of single manager hedge funds, pure style indices were created to be entered in a multivariate autoregressive framework. For each style index, a Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was estimated to determine the short-term as well as co-integrating relationship of the hedge fund series with the index level series of a stock, bond and commodity proxy. It was postulated that a) in a well-diversified portfolio, the current level of the hedge fund index is independent of the lagged observations from the other asset indices; and b) if the assumptions of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) hold, it is expected that the predictive power of the model will be low. The analysis was conducted for the July 2000 - June 2010 period. Impulse response tests and variance decomposition revealed that changes in hedge fund index levels are partially induced by changes in the stock, bond and currency markets. Investors are therefore cautioned not to overemphasise the diversification benefits of hedge fund investments. Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) / managed futures, on the other hand, deliver diversification benefits when integrated with an existing portfolio. The results indicated that single manager hedge funds can be reliably classified using the principal factor axis methodology. Continuously re-balanced pure style index representations of these classifications could be used in further analysis. Extensive multivariate analysis revealed that CTAs and macro hedge funds offer superior diversification benefits in the context of existing portfolios. The empirical results are of interest not only to academic researchers, but also practitioners seeking to replicate the methodologies presented.

This paper examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and tests for causality using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). There is evidence of long-run relationships in the three models under consideration. The Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) finds no evidence to support the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for Zambia in the long-run. The evidence from the long-run suggests an opposite of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), in that the results indicate a U-shaped curve relationship between income and carbon emission. The conclusion on causality based on the VECM is that there is evidence of neutrality hypothesis between either total electricity and income or between industrial electricity and income in the short-run Additionally, there is evidence of conservation hypothesis in the context of residential and agricultural electricity consumption.

O impacto de movimentos cambiais nos níveis de preços é de suma importância para a formulação de políticas econômicas. Nesse contexto, este trabalho tem como objetivo a utilização de uma nova metodologia para a estimação e cálculo do repasse para diferentes índices de preço no período de 2003-2017. Estudos anteriores nesse campo identificam ignoram as relações de longo-prazo presentes no sistema ou não utilizam as restrições dadas pela estrutura de cointegração do sistema. Assim a identificação dos choques estruturais é discutida a partir da premissa de separação entre choques permanentes e estruturais sendo que a mesma é fundamentada pela teoria com o auxílio de testes estatísticos. Além dessa estrutura não-recursiva, uma alternativa é apresentada a partir de estruturas recursivas de Cholesky de forma a tornar possível a comparação. Três distintas especificações são estimadas de maneira a gerar estimativas para o repasse aos preços de importação, no atacado e ao consumidor para o Brasil. Para a estrutura não recursiva os repasses para os preços de importação variam de 48 a 65% a depender da especificação sendo diferentes de completo no longo-prazo. Para os preços no atacado os repasses variam de 11 a 15% se mostrando em duas das três especificações estatisticamente diferentes de zero. Os repasses ao consumidor variam de 4 a 13% se mostrando estatisticamente diferente de zero em duas das três especificações. / The impact of exchange rate movements on price levels is of utmost importance for the formulation of economic policies. In this context, this paper aims to use a new methodology for the estimation and calculation of the pass-through for different price index in the period 2003-2017. Previous studies in this field identify ignore the long-term relationships present in the system or do not use the constraints given by the system cointegration structure. Thus, the identification of structural shocks is discussed from the premise of separation between permanent and structural shocks, and it is based on theory with the aid of statistical tests. In addition to this non-recursive structure, one is estimated from Cholesky\'s recursive structures in order to make the comparison possible. Three different specifications are estimated in order to generate estimates for the transfer of import, wholesale and consumer prices to Brazil. For the non-recursive structure, pass-through for import prices range from 48 to 65 % depending on the specification being different from complete in the long run. For producer prices, pass-through range from 11 to 15 % and in two of three specifications they are statistically different from zero. Pass-through to the consumer prices ranges from 4 to 13 % and it is statistically different from zero in two of the three specifications.

O mercado do milho no Brasil tem demonstrado algumas mudanças nos últimos anos aumentando sua importância no agronegócio. Por esse motivo, tem sido maior a necessidade de estudo de suas características. O objetivo da presente dissertação consiste em verificar como se dá a transmissão de preços entre os mercados regionais dessa commodity no Brasil a nível de produtor, com foco nos estados da região Sul e Centro-Oeste, devido à sua importância para a produção nacional. Além disso, também foi buscado analisar como os preços dos estados analisados reagem ao preço cotado na bolsa de valores para saber qual sua relação com o mercado externo. O método de pesquisa utilizado foi: teste de raiz unitária; teste de cointegração; vetor de correção de erro; teste de causalidade de Granger e teste de impulso-resposta. Os resultados do teste de cointegração indicam que há transmissão de preços entre todos os estados analisados, bem como os estados respondem a oscilações de preços do mercado externo a longo prazo. O fato de existir cointegração entre os estados é condição suficiente para se afirmar que existe relação linear de equilíbrio para a qual o sistema converge, validando os pressupostos da Lei do Preço Único e a integração. Todos os estados apresentaram resposta significativa a mudanças de preços no estado de Santa Catarina pelo vetor de correção de erro (VEC), mostrando que esse estado tem forte influência na formação de preços dos estados das duas regiões analisadas. No curto prazo foi observado que os estados de Mato Grosso e Rio Grande do Sul não recebem influência direta das oscilações de preços dos outros mercados, enquanto os estados de Paraná, Santa Catarina e Goiás parecem ser interdependentes a curto prazo, pois apresentam relativa correlação. Além disso, a função impulso resposta demonstra também que um impulso nos preços do estado de Santa Catarina gera resposta significativa nos preços dos outros estados de forma geral, e um impulso no preço do estado de Goiás também gera uma reação forte no preço do estado do Mato Grosso. / The corn market in Brazil has shown some changes in recent years increasing its importance in agribusiness. For this reason has increased the need for more studies related to this market’s characteristics . The objective of this dissertation is to check how is the price transmission between regional markets in Brazil at producer level for this commodity, focusing on states of the South and Midwest of the country, because of its importance to the national production. Furthermore, it was also sought to analyze how the prices of the analyzed states react to the price quoted on the stock market, looking for understanding how is its relationship with the external market. The research method used was: the unit root test , cointegration test , vector error correction; Granger causality test and impulse response test. The result of the cointegration test indicates that there is price transmission between all the states analyzed as well as states respond to price fluctuations on the stock market in the long run . The existence of cointegration between the states is sufficient to say that there is a linear equilibrium relationship to which converges the sistem, validating the assumptions of the Law of One Price and the integration condition. All states showed significant responses to price changes in the state of Santa Catarina by the vector error correction ( VEC ) , showing that this state has a strong influence on the pricing of the states on the two regions. In the short term it was observed that the states of Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul receive no direct influence from the prices of other markets, while the states of Paraná, Santa Catarina and Goiás seem to be interdependent in the short term because they present a correlation. As well, the impulse response function also shows that a surge in prices in the state of Santa Catarina generates a significant response in prices of other states in general, and a boost in the price of Goias also generates a strong reaction in the price of Mato Grosso.