This thesis consists of four essays in empirical macroeconomics. What Are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks? A VAR-Based Comparative Analysis The literature using structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) to assess the effects of fiscal policy shocks strongly disagrees on the qualitative and quantitative response of key macroeconomic variables. We find that controlling for differences in specification of the reduced-form model, all identification approaches used in the literature yield similar results regarding the effects of government spending shocks, but diverging results regarding the effects of tax shocks. The Analytics of SVARs. A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers Does fiscal policy stimulate output? SVARs have been used to address this question, but no stylized facts have emerged. I show that different priors about the output elasticities of tax revenue and government expenditures implied by the identification schemes generate a large dispersion in the estimates of tax and spending multipliers. I estimate fiscal multipliers consistent with prior distributions of the elasticities computed by a variety of empirical strategies. I document that in the U.S. spending multipliers are larger than the tax multipliers. Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences and Stochastic Volatility This paper compares solution methods for computing the equilibrium of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with recursive preferences and stochastic volatility. The main finding is that a third-order perturbation is competitive in terms of accuracy with Chebyshev polynomials and value function iteration, while being an order of magnitude faster to run. Business Cycle Accounting and Misspecified DSGE Models This paper investigates how insights from the literature on business cycle accounting can be used to trace out the implications of missing channels in a baseline estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model used for forecast and policy analysis.

The Swedish households’ debt relative to income has increased for some time now, with the Riksbanks’ executive board expressing its concern for the risk it brings. It has been debated whether or not to take the high indebtedness into account when setting the policy rate. There is at the same time no consensus about the relationship between the repo rate and household debt. This study aims to examine the effect of a change in the repo rate on household debt-to-income ratio, using a VAR-model. The result is that a 1 percentage point shock to the repo rate for one quarter will have a negative impact on the household debt-to-income ratio by 1.75 percentage points after about 8 quarters. However this may not decrease the risk associated with the debt due to higher unemployment.

There are four chapters in my dissertation. Chapter one gives a brief introduction of the three essays. Chapter two empirically analyzes the interaction among conventional monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention and the exchange rate in a unifying model for Japan. I have several findings. First, the results lend support to the leaning-against-the-wind hypothesis. Second, conventional monetary policy has as great influence on the exchange rate as foreign exchange intervention in Japan. Third, intervention in Japan is ineffective or may be counter-effective, so escaping liquidity trap by intervention alone may not be a feasible way. Chapter three empirically identifies the sources of exchange rate movements of Japan vis--vis the US, and investigates the role of the exchange rate in the macro economy adjustment. It finds that real shocks dominate nominal shocks in explaining the exchange rate movements, with relative real demand shocks as the major contributor. And the exchange rate market does not create many shocks. The overall result supports that the bilateral exchange rate in Japan is a shock-absorber rather than a source of shock. Chapter four provides cross-country and time-series evidence on the extent of exchange rate pass-through at different stages of distribution - import prices, producer prices and consumer prices - for eight major industrial countries: United States, Japan, Canada, Italy, UK, Finland, Sweden and Spain. I find exchange rate pass-through incomplete in many horizons, though complete pass-through is observed occasionally. The degree of pass-through declines and time needed for complete pass-through lengthens along the distribution chain. Furthermore, I find that a greater pass-through coefficient is associated with an economy that is smaller in size with higher import shares, more persistent and less volatile exchange rate shocks, more volatile monetary shocks, higher inflation rate, and less volatile GDP.

O presente artigo apresenta um estudo econométrico da política fiscal brasileira com o objetivo de avaliar, no período que se estende de 2001 a 2010 utilizando dados mensais, como os diferentes componentes da política fiscal respondem à dinâmica do produto. Primeiramente é feito a identificação e a análise dos componentes da política: impulso fiscal e regra fiscal seguindo a orientação de distintas metodologias (OCDE, FMI, método Holandês e filtro de Kalman). Dessa forma, é possível avaliar se a política é oportuna e ágil, observar qual o tamanho do impacto da resposta de cada componente a choques negativos no produto e, por fim, comparar os resultados fiscais com os encontrados para a política monetária. Para tanto, foi utilizado a técnica da autorregressão vetorial. Os resultados das estimações indicam que a regra fiscal apresenta-se de forma oportuna e reage mais rapidamente, em termos gerais, à redução do hiato quando comparados aos juros e ao impulso fiscal. Em relação ao impulso fiscal os resultados das estimações não foram tão homogêneos. A política monetária apresenta resultados levemente díspares quando se trata da velocidade da adoção de medidas contracíclicas. A decomposição da política fiscal via filtro de Kalman pareceu ser a mais indicada. / This article presents an econometric study of the Brazilian fiscal policy with the objective of evaluating, in the period extending from 2001 to 2010, using monthly data, how the different components of fiscal policy respond to the dynamics of the product. Firstly, the identification and analysis of the components of the policy are made: fiscal impulse and fiscal rule following the guidance of different methodologies (OECD, IMF, Dutch method and Kalman filter). Thus, it is possible to assess whether the policy is timely and responsive, to observe how big the impact of each component of the response to negative shocks is in the product and, lastly, compare the fiscal results with the results also found for monetary policy. For this purpose it used the technique of vector autoregression. The estimation results indicate that the fiscal rule is presented in a timely manner and react more quickly, in general terms, to reduce the gap when compared to interest rates and fiscal stimulus. In relation to fiscal impulse the estimation results were not as homogeneous. Monetary policy has slightly differing results when it comes to the speed of adoption of countercyclical measures. The analysis of fiscal police via the Kalman filter seems to be most suitable.

iv Abstract In this thesis, we investigate the relative importance of foreign shocks in the Ukrainian economy by estimating a small-scale SVAR model with block exogeneity restriction over the period 2003:2 - 2016:12. We find that external shocks from the EU and Russia account for a significant share of the macroeconomic variation in Ukraine. In particular, external shocks account for up to 97 % of variance in Ukraine's output and 85 % in inflation. Remarkably, foreign monetary policy shocks (both from the EU and Russia) account only for a tiny share of variance in all Ukrainian macro variables. Finally, we show that the inclusion of Russia in the 'foreign' block is important to achieve correct model specification. Without accounting for the effects of the Russian economy, Ukrainian variables over-react to shocks originating from the EU. We conclude that the National Bank of Ukraine should closely track external developments to achieve inflation targets. JEL Classification E52, F41, F42 Keywords vector autoregression, foreign shocks, monetary policy, Ukraine Author's e-mail alonafedorova0@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail jaromir.baxa@fsv.cuni.cz

O presente artigo apresenta um estudo econométrico da política fiscal brasileira com o objetivo de avaliar, no período que se estende de 2001 a 2010 utilizando dados mensais, como os diferentes componentes da política fiscal respondem à dinâmica do produto. Primeiramente é feito a identificação e a análise dos componentes da política: impulso fiscal e regra fiscal seguindo a orientação de distintas metodologias (OCDE, FMI, método Holandês e filtro de Kalman). Dessa forma, é possível avaliar se a política é oportuna e ágil, observar qual o tamanho do impacto da resposta de cada componente a choques negativos no produto e, por fim, comparar os resultados fiscais com os encontrados para a política monetária. Para tanto, foi utilizado a técnica da autorregressão vetorial. Os resultados das estimações indicam que a regra fiscal apresenta-se de forma oportuna e reage mais rapidamente, em termos gerais, à redução do hiato quando comparados aos juros e ao impulso fiscal. Em relação ao impulso fiscal os resultados das estimações não foram tão homogêneos. A política monetária apresenta resultados levemente díspares quando se trata da velocidade da adoção de medidas contracíclicas. A decomposição da política fiscal via filtro de Kalman pareceu ser a mais indicada. / This article presents an econometric study of the Brazilian fiscal policy with the objective of evaluating, in the period extending from 2001 to 2010, using monthly data, how the different components of fiscal policy respond to the dynamics of the product. Firstly, the identification and analysis of the components of the policy are made: fiscal impulse and fiscal rule following the guidance of different methodologies (OECD, IMF, Dutch method and Kalman filter). Thus, it is possible to assess whether the policy is timely and responsive, to observe how big the impact of each component of the response to negative shocks is in the product and, lastly, compare the fiscal results with the results also found for monetary policy. For this purpose it used the technique of vector autoregression. The estimation results indicate that the fiscal rule is presented in a timely manner and react more quickly, in general terms, to reduce the gap when compared to interest rates and fiscal stimulus. In relation to fiscal impulse the estimation results were not as homogeneous. Monetary policy has slightly differing results when it comes to the speed of adoption of countercyclical measures. The analysis of fiscal police via the Kalman filter seems to be most suitable.

O presente artigo apresenta um estudo econométrico da política fiscal brasileira com o objetivo de avaliar, no período que se estende de 2001 a 2010 utilizando dados mensais, como os diferentes componentes da política fiscal respondem à dinâmica do produto. Primeiramente é feito a identificação e a análise dos componentes da política: impulso fiscal e regra fiscal seguindo a orientação de distintas metodologias (OCDE, FMI, método Holandês e filtro de Kalman). Dessa forma, é possível avaliar se a política é oportuna e ágil, observar qual o tamanho do impacto da resposta de cada componente a choques negativos no produto e, por fim, comparar os resultados fiscais com os encontrados para a política monetária. Para tanto, foi utilizado a técnica da autorregressão vetorial. Os resultados das estimações indicam que a regra fiscal apresenta-se de forma oportuna e reage mais rapidamente, em termos gerais, à redução do hiato quando comparados aos juros e ao impulso fiscal. Em relação ao impulso fiscal os resultados das estimações não foram tão homogêneos. A política monetária apresenta resultados levemente díspares quando se trata da velocidade da adoção de medidas contracíclicas. A decomposição da política fiscal via filtro de Kalman pareceu ser a mais indicada. / This article presents an econometric study of the Brazilian fiscal policy with the objective of evaluating, in the period extending from 2001 to 2010, using monthly data, how the different components of fiscal policy respond to the dynamics of the product. Firstly, the identification and analysis of the components of the policy are made: fiscal impulse and fiscal rule following the guidance of different methodologies (OECD, IMF, Dutch method and Kalman filter). Thus, it is possible to assess whether the policy is timely and responsive, to observe how big the impact of each component of the response to negative shocks is in the product and, lastly, compare the fiscal results with the results also found for monetary policy. For this purpose it used the technique of vector autoregression. The estimation results indicate that the fiscal rule is presented in a timely manner and react more quickly, in general terms, to reduce the gap when compared to interest rates and fiscal stimulus. In relation to fiscal impulse the estimation results were not as homogeneous. Monetary policy has slightly differing results when it comes to the speed of adoption of countercyclical measures. The analysis of fiscal police via the Kalman filter seems to be most suitable.

A compreensão dos efeitos das atividades de marketing nas vendas de produtos de consumo em um ambiente multicanal é de fundamental importância para acadêmicos e executivos. As decisões sobre as variáveis controláveis de marketing para as marcas de consumo nos mercados considerados emergentes, como o Brasil, são desafiadoras porque, no contexto do varejo alimentar, os canais de distribuição nesses mercados variam mais em relação aos mercados maduros em termos de formatos e tipos de varejistas. No Brasil, o varejo é ainda menos concentrado do que em outros países desenvolvidos. Os supermercados de vizinhança e as lojas tradicionais independentes, como mercearias e padarias, ainda são importantes. Por outro lado, os grandes grupos varejistas têm expandido seus negócios. Considerando que esses canais variam em relação ao tamanho da loja e ao formato (autosserviço e full-service), variedade de SKUs (Stock Keeping Unit) oferecidos, propriedade e perfil do público-alvo, o efeito das atividades de marketing da indústria pode ser diferente em cada um desses canais. Nesse contexto, esta pesquisa investiga se os efeitos nas vendas provenientes das atividades de marketing, com foco em gerenciamento de canais e comunicação push (dirigidas aos canais) e pull (dirigidas aos consumidores finais), variam por canal de distribuição, mensurando, assim, quais são os efeitos nas vendas em cada canal. A base de dados utilizada estava disponível por SKU para todas as marcas de bebidas carbonatadas referentes a uma região do Brasil, que representa 16,5% das vendas no varejo alimentar. Os dados, no período de janeiro de 2008 até dezembro de 2011, estavam disponíveis mensalmente incluindo variáveis de produto, preço, cobertura de mercado e atividades promocionais para todos os SKUs de bebidas nos grandes supermercados (AS>5), pequenos supermercados (AS 1-4) e o canal formado pelas lojas full-service, (tradicional). Sobre os investimentos em comunicações de marketing, a base de dados foi disponibilizada por um fabricante de marcas líderes no mercado de bebidas. A metodologia deste trabalho, de abordagem quantitativa, envolveu os testes de validação e a aplicação do método de análise multivariada para séries temporais, seguindo o modelo de Vetores Autorregressivos (VAR). Um ponto de destaque desta pesquisa é a adaptação do modelo VAR para a modelagem das variáveis de marketing em um contexto multicanal, analisando os efeitos das atividades push e pull de maneira integrada com todas as variáveis controláveis de marketing (comunicação, preço, distribuição e produto). Mesmo pesquisas conduzidas em mercados maduros ainda não exploraram totalmente as sinergias entre as atividades push e pull em diferentes canais. Os resultados desta pesquisa indicaram que os efeitos das atividades de marketing variam por canal. As funções de respostas ao impulso, a partir das equações do modelo VAR, são apresentadas para cada atividade de marketing analisada, mensurando seu efeito nas vendas de cada canal. Isso permitiu analisar as hipóteses propostas. Por fim, este estudo contribui com uma metodologia que permite modelar as variáveis de marketing em um contexto multicanal e, ainda, apresenta o efeito das atividades de marketing nas vendas em cada tipo de varejista analisado. / Understanding marketing mix effects on consumer product\'s sales in a multichannel environment is of importance to both scholars and practitioners. Marketing mix decisions for consumer brands in emerging markets, such as Brazil, is challenging because in the grocery retailing, channels in these markets vary more than in the developed markets with regards to their format and type. In Brazil, the level of concentration in grocery retailing is still smaller in than in developed markets. Neighborhood stores and independent mom-and-pop stores are still of importance; however, big retailers\' chains are expanding their businesses. Considering that these channels vary in terms of store size (self-service and full-service), breadth of assortment, value proposition and customers\' profile, effects of manufacturers\' marketing activities might be different in each channel. Under this context, this research analyzes whether effects on sales from the marketing activities vary by channel, with focus on channel management and marketing push and pull. This assessment was possible by measuring what these effects are across channels. Data for the study comes from store audits that spans four years, from 2008 to 2011, for all brands in the carbonated soft-drinks category from a region in Brazil which accounts for 16,5% of sales in food retail. The data was available by channel and SKU, including channel management measures for all SKUs in big supermarkets (AS>5), small supermarkets (AS 1-4) and mom-and-pop stores. Data for the marketing communication spending came from a beverage leading company. The methodology used for this quantitative research included validation tests and the employment of a method for multivariate time series analysis, called Vector Autorregressive Models (VAR). A highlight of the study is the employment of a VAR model in a multichannel context, which makes it possible to analyze the effects of push and pull activities integrated with the others marketing variables (communication, price, distribution and product). Even research conducted in developed markets has not explored synergies between push and pull. Results from this research have indicated that the effects of marketing activities vary by channel. The impulse-reponse functions by each marketing activities and channels are estimated in order to test the hypothesis proposed in this study. Thus, it contributes to creating an understanding of how to model the marketing mix variables in a multichannel environment and to creating an understanding of what marketing activities are more potential to drive higher level of sales by each analyzed channel.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Lloyd B. Thomas Jr / Dennis L. Weisman / This dissertation has focused primarily on the relationship between aggregate private output and a measure of the public fixed capital stock for the U.S. economy using two different approaches for the years 1947-2005. The study starts with a brief survey of the existing literature on the relationship between private output and public capital and continues with an analysis of data on some macroeconomic variables related to private output and public capital. It employs a production function approach to provide empirical estimates and analyze its econometric problems, and continues with a vector autoregression (VAR) model. It uses two criteria, the Akaike Information Criterion and the Schwartz Bayesian Criterion, to compare the performance of the two models tested. There are several differences between this study and the existing literature. The most important difference is that each of the other studies uses only a single approach to analyze the relationship between the public capital stock and private economic growth while this study uses two different methodologies to analyze the same relationship and tests the two models using the same aggregate macroeconomic annual data on the U.S. economy from 1947 to 2005. This study represents the first attempt to provide estimates of the elasticities of private output with respect to the private capital stock, private labor stock, public nonmilitary capital stock, and public core infrastructure capital stock by employing two different approaches so that the comparison of the elasticities resulting from the two different approaches can be most meaningful. Moreover, this study also represents the first attempt to provide estimates of the marginal products of the above four inputs. Second, the studies that employ a production function approach are ad hoc and so is the production function approach of this study, but the production function approach section of this study is the only one having an explicit capital evolution equation for both the private and the public capital stock. All of the other studies using annual data use aggregate macroeconomic data on related variables for less than thirty years while this study employs aggregate data from 1947 to 2005 (fifty nine years). Lastly, the other production function studies are incomplete in the sense that they either do not attempt to deal with some major econometric problems such as a common trend (resulting in a spurious correlation) and the direction of the causation or when they do acknowledge major econometric problems, they do not do anything to correct them. This study, on the other hand, will try to detect major econometric problems. Once the problem is detected, the study will employ measures to deal with the problem. Major findings of this study are as follows. First, the causation runs from the public fixed capital stock to private output rather than in the other direction. Second, most of the studies in the existing literature report a positive impact of the private fixed capital stock on private output that is too small to be credible, whereas they report a positive impact of the public fixed capital stock on private output that is too large to be credible. However, the estimates of this study suggest not only a positive impact of the public capital stock on private output that seems credible but also a positive and very large impact of the private capital stock on private output. Third, the results of several joint hypothesis tests conducted show that there is enough sample evidence to claim that not only that the private sector operates under constant returns to scale in all inputs, private and public, for the years 1947-2005 but also that the private fixed capital stock is more important to the aggregate private production process than either of the two measures of the public fixed capital stock.

The objective of this thesis is to develop alternative forms of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models for forecasting the South African economy and, in turn, compare them with the forecasts generated by the Classical and Bayesian variants of the Vector Autoregression Models (VARs). Such a comparative analysis is aimed at developing a small-scale micro-founded framework that will help in forecasting the key macroeconomic variables of the economy. The thesis consists of three independent papers. The first paper develops a small-scale DSGE model based on Hansen's (1985) indivisible labor Real Business Cycle (RBC) model. The results suggest that, compared to the VARs and the Bayesian VARs, the DSGE model produces large out-of-sample forecast errors. In the basic RBC framework, business cycle fluctuations are purely driven by real technology shocks. This one-shock assumption makes the RBC models stochastically singular. In order to overcome the singularity problem in the RBC model developed in the first paper, the second paper develops a hybrid model (DSGE-VAR), in which the theoretical model is augmented with unobservable errors having a VAR representation. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood technique. The results suggest DSGE-VAR model outperforms the Classical VAR, but not the Bayesian VARs. However, it does indicate that the forecast accuracy can be improved alarmingly by using the estimated version of the DSGE model. The third paper develops a micro-founded New-Keynesian DSGE (NKDSGE) model. The model consists of three equations, an expectational IS curve, a forward-looking version of the Phillips curve, and a Taylor-type monetary policy rule. The results indicate that, besides the usual usage for policy analysis, a small-scale NKDSGE model has a future for forecasting. The NKDSGE model outperforms both the Classical and Bayesian variants of the VARs in forecasting inflation, but not for output growth and the nominal short-term interest rate. However, the differences of the forecast errors are minor. The indicated success of the NKDSGE model for predicting inflation is important, especially in the context of South Africa - an economy targeting inflation. / Thesis (PhD (Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Economics / unrestricted