In this thesis the demography, home range and habitat selection of a reintroduced population of Anatolian mouflon (Ovis gmelinii anatolica), which had a single remaining population, was studied to evaluate the reintroduction success and determine the conservation management interventions. For this purpose among 104 individuals reintroduced in Sariyar Wildlife Protection Area (Ankara, Turkey), 40 adults were radio-collared and 28 juvenile were ear-tagged and monitored from 2005 to 2009. The survival of the population according to the age groups (females, 0: 0.5423, 1: 0.60, 2: 0.5316, 3: 0.6637, 3+: 0.6728) and the fecundity of adult females (2: 0.2260, 3: 0.2034, 3+: 0.2034) are estimated. A population viability analysis was performed and the persistence of the population within the next 20 years was estimated. Increasing the survival rate of adult female through conservation or restocking the population with at least six adult females every year decreased the risk of extinction in the near future considerably. The year-round home ranges of the individuals ranged between 805 &ndash / 3435 ha. (Mean &plusmn / SE: 1934 &plusmn / 140 ha). The movements of the tracked individuals followed seasonal patterns: centers of activities changed according to seasons in 80% of the adult mouflon. Reintroduced mouflon selected southern aspects (p=0.001), increasing slopes &ndash / especially medium to high slope terrain &ndash / (slope &gt / 30&deg / , p=0.002), and distant locations to villages and roads. Results indicate that appropriate protective measures should be implemented immediately to mitigate the causes of juvenile mortality. Restocking the population for the next 10 years with adult females would have a stabilizing effect on the declining population and will act as a buffering mechanism during the adaptation period to the new area.

Conservation frequently requires immediate responses to prevent further declines of imperilled populations, often in the absence of detailed information. Consequently, population distribution patterns are often used to guide conservation decisions. However, distribution patterns may be misleading if threats have restricted species to low quality habitat. This issue means it is not always apparent where management efforts should be concentrated for maximum conservation gain. My aim was to improve the effectiveness of threatened species conservation by investigating this issue in whio (blue duck - Hymenolaimus malacorhynchos), a New Zealand riverine duck that has undergone serious declines. I used population and spatial modelling to answer three questions: (1) what are the threats to whio, (2) how can these threats be managed, and (3) managing which whio habitats will give the greatest conservation gain? A spatial analysis of contemporary whio habitat using boosted regression trees revealed whio are only secure in 1 % of their historical range, with predation likely causing significantly greater range contraction (83 %) than habitat modification (29 %). In that analysis, I identified 39,000 km of occupiable whio habitat, providing extensive opportunities to expand their contemporary range through management. Intensive monitoring identified stoats (Mustela erminea) as the primary cause of whio population declines, with stoat predation severely reducing whio nest survival (10 % and 54 % in the absence and presence of stoat control, respectively). Population viability analyses indicated whio populations in the absence of stoat control were at high risk of extinction (λ = 0.74) but large-scale, low-intensity predator control was useful for short-term whio conservation. However, whio populations with stoat control still had a declining population growth rate (λ = 0.95) and further intervention may be required to prevent whio extinctions. Such management needs to target high quality habitat to ensure the greatest conservation value. Analyses of habitat quality revealed whio fitness was highest in warm, low gradient rivers, although fitness gradients differed between North and South Islands. Comparisons of fitness relationships with spatial model predictions showed that South Island whio occurred more frequently in poorer habitat, indicating they may occupy a relict distribution. Limited resources for conservation mean identifying effective management techniques is critical for species persistence. My modelling approach enabled the effectiveness of whio management to be assessed and areas of high quality habitat where such management should provide the greatest benefit to be identified. These tools are directly applicable to the conservation management of many threatened species by quickly informing managers in situations where distributions may not follow habitat quality.

Conservation frequently requires immediate responses to prevent further declines of imperilled populations, often in the absence of detailed information. Consequently, population distribution patterns are often used to guide conservation decisions. However, distribution patterns may be misleading if threats have restricted species to low quality habitat. This issue means it is not always apparent where management efforts should be concentrated for maximum conservation gain. My aim was to improve the effectiveness of threatened species conservation by investigating this issue in whio (blue duck - Hymenolaimus malacorhynchos), a New Zealand riverine duck that has undergone serious declines. I used population and spatial modelling to answer three questions: (1) what are the threats to whio, (2) how can these threats be managed, and (3) managing which whio habitats will give the greatest conservation gain? A spatial analysis of contemporary whio habitat using boosted regression trees revealed whio are only secure in 1 % of their historical range, with predation likely causing significantly greater range contraction (83 %) than habitat modification (29 %). In that analysis, I identified 39,000 km of occupiable whio habitat, providing extensive opportunities to expand their contemporary range through management. Intensive monitoring identified stoats (Mustela erminea) as the primary cause of whio population declines, with stoat predation severely reducing whio nest survival (10 % and 54 % in the absence and presence of stoat control, respectively). Population viability analyses indicated whio populations in the absence of stoat control were at high risk of extinction (λ = 0.74) but large-scale, low-intensity predator control was useful for short-term whio conservation. However, whio populations with stoat control still had a declining population growth rate (λ = 0.95) and further intervention may be required to prevent whio extinctions. Such management needs to target high quality habitat to ensure the greatest conservation value. Analyses of habitat quality revealed whio fitness was highest in warm, low gradient rivers, although fitness gradients differed between North and South Islands. Comparisons of fitness relationships with spatial model predictions showed that South Island whio occurred more frequently in poorer habitat, indicating they may occupy a relict distribution. Limited resources for conservation mean identifying effective management techniques is critical for species persistence. My modelling approach enabled the effectiveness of whio management to be assessed and areas of high quality habitat where such management should provide the greatest benefit to be identified. These tools are directly applicable to the conservation management of many threatened species by quickly informing managers in situations where distributions may not follow habitat quality.

The Australian sea lion, Neophoca cinerea, is Australia?s only endemic pinniped, and one of the rarest sea lions in the world. This species suffered localised extinction events, and a probable population decline during the commercial sealing era of the 18th to 20th centuries. This species also has a unique reproductive cycle and breeding system compared with all other pinnipeds. Unlike the usual annual, synchronous cycle, this species has a 17.5 month breeding cycle which is asynchronous across its range. Small groups of proximate colonies appear to breed synchronously, but otherwise the timing appears randomly distributed. It was proposed that this system is endogenously controlled and maintained by exclusive female natal site fidelity (Gales et al. 1994). This would have a discernible impact on the population genetic structure, and would be directly applicable to conservation management practices. Investigation of population genetic structure of the Australian sea lion using mtDNA and microsatellite markers revealed a highly subdivided population that showed strong patterns of sex-biased dispersal, and strong regional divisions. The level of female natal site fidelity was extreme, resulting in very high levels of genetic differentiation, unparalleled in other marine mammal populations. Significant divisions existed across both macro and micro geographic scales, with fixed differences occurring between colonies separated by as little as 20 kilometres. Strong phylogeographic patterning suggested that divisions between populations are of some antiquity. High levels of fixation in mtDNA markers among the many small colonies in Western Australia was attributed to the high rate of genetic drift in small populations, especially for these markers. Genetic subdivison, as measured by microsatellite markers, revealed a malebiased dispersal pattern. Levels of male dispersal were sufficient in overcoming the female natal site fidelity and rendering small groups of colonies effectively panmictic. However, the range of male dispersal was limited to approximately 200 kilometres and resulted in a regional population structure best defined by geographic distance. This level of subdivision was perhaps greater than expected given the dispersal capabilities of this species, and suggested that some behavioural processes may limit dispersal. Historical processes of extinction and colonisation are thought to have had a strong influence on the current pattern of population subdivision as well.

Sotalia guianensis é um pequeno cetáceo costeiro encontrado ao longo do Oceano Atlântico Sul-Ocidental. Está exposta a inúmeras ameaças, tais como captura acidental em redes de pesca, tráfego de embarcações e turismo. A análise de viabilidade populacional (AVP) é uma forma de prever as flutuações e a probabilidade de persistência ou extinção de uma espécie ou população ao longo do tempo, incorporando dados demográficos, ecológicos e ambientais de populações reais em simulações computacionais de modelos estocásticos e determinísticos. O presente estudo teve como objetivos estimar densidade, abundância e realizar uma AVP para S. guianensis no Complexo Estuarino-Lagunar de Cananéia, São Paulo. Estimativas de abundância e densidade foram obtidas entre 2011 e 2012, utilizando o método de transecção linear com amostragem de distâncias, com 1.339,91 km percorridos e 83h05min em esforço. Avistou-se 241 grupos, compostos por 1 a 20 indivíduos. O programa Distance, com modelo half-normal e ajuste coseno e menor valor de AIC, estimou uma abundância de 193 indivíduos (95%IC: 158 - 237) e densidade de 2,5538 ind/km2 (95%IC: 2,0812 - 3,1337). A média de tamanho de grupo é 4,1504 indivíduos (95%IC: 3,7666 - 4,5734). De forma geral, a espécie apresenta grandes variações ao longo de sua distribuição com relação ao tamanho populacional, densidade, tamanho de grupos, distribuição nos habitats e residência. Tais diferenças estão associadas possivelmente às características físicas e ambientais de cada habitat, que interferem direta ou indiretamente na distribuição e dinâmica populacional da espécie e suas presas. Para a AVP a população foi tratada como não suplementada, sem dispersão, sem remoção, sem depressão endogâmica e a extinção foi definida como a permanência de apenas um sexo. O valor inicial da população é 193 indivíduos e demais parâmetros demográficos e reprodutivos foram estimados com base na literatura disponível. Variações de parâmetros específicos (mortalidade, capacidade de suporte do ambiente (K), variação ambiental na reprodução e catástrofe) foram inseridas nos cenários para avaliar as tendências populacionais sob diferentes ameças. Utilizou-se o programa VORTEX 9.99b. A AVP apontou para o declínio e extinção (P(E) = 1,000) da população em menos de 300 anos em todos os cenários, com taxas de crescimento de -0,082 (SD = 0,120), - 0,049 (SD = 0,107) e -0,086 (SD = 0,062), para os cenários 1, 2 e 3 respectivamente. O tempo médio para extinção foi estimado em 39,6 anos para o cenário 1, 57,3 anos para o cenário 2 e 3,3 anos para o cenário 3. As projeções geradas pela AVP apontaram cenários pessimistas, o que pode estar relacionado ao pequeno tamanho da população. As análises mostram que variações no tamanho populacional, mortalidade, K e catástrofes podem influenciar fortemente a persistência de pequenas populações. O estuário de Cananéia é um ambiente favorável e bem preservado que oferece recursos suficientes para S. guianensis, entretanto, o aumento das atividades antrópicas na área pode levar a mudanças na dinâmica populacional e alterações no habitat, comprometendo sua persistência ao longo do tempo. / Sotalia guianensis is a small coastal cetacean found along the south-western Atlantic Ocean. Through its range, is exposed to numerous threats, such as bycatch in fishing nets, vessel traffic and tourism. Population viability analysis (PVA) is a way to predict the trends and the probability of persistence or extinction of a species or population over time, incorporating demographic, ecological and environmental data of real populations in computer simulations of stochastic and deterministic models. The present study aimed to estimate density, abundance and population viability of S. guianensis in the estuarine-lagoon complex. Estimates of abundance and density were obtained between 2011 and 2012, using the distance sampling method and linear transects, with 1,339 .91 km and 83h05min in effort. It were recorded 241 groups (n) with group size between 1 to 20 individuals. The Distance program, with half-normal model and adjust cosine with the lowest AIC, estimated an abundance of 193 individuals (95% CI: 158-237) and density of 2.5538 ind/km2 (95% CI: 2.0812 - 3.1337). The average group size is 4.1504 individuals (95% IC: 3.7666-4.5734). In general, the species presents large variations throughout its distribution regarding population size, density, groups size, distribution in habitat and residence. Such differences are possibly associated with the physical characteristics of each habitat and environmental conditions that interfere directly or indirectly in the distribution and population dynamics of the species and its prey. For the PVA population was treated as not supplemented, without dispersion, without removal, without inbreeding depression, and extinction was defined as the presence of only one sex. The initial population size was 193 individuals and other demographic and reproductive parameters were estimated based on available literature for the species. Variations of specific parameters (mortality, carrying capacity of the environment, environmental variation on reproduction and catastrophe) were used to evaluate population trends under different threats and scenarios. It was used the VORTEX program v. 9.99 b. AVP pointed to the decline and extinction (P(E) = 1,000) of the population in less than 300 years in all scenarios, with growth rates of -0.082 (SD = 0.120), -0.049 (SD = 0.107) and - 0.086 (SD = 0.062), for scenarios 1, 2 and 3 respectively. The average time to extinction was estimated at 39.6 years for scenario 1, 57.3 years for scenario 2 and 3.3 years for scenario 3. The projections generated by the AVP showed pessimistic scenarios, which may be related to the small size of the population. The analyses show that variations in population size, mortality, carrying capacity and disasters can strongly influence the persistence of small populations. Cananéia estuary is a well preserved environment that offers sufficient resources to S. guianensis, however, the increase in anthropogenic activities in the estuary may lead to changes in population dynamics and habitat quality, compromising their persistence over time.

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar a viabilidade financeira para obtenção de créditos de carbono em projetos de eficiência energética, por meio dos indicadores financeiros Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) e Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR). A partir do desenvolvimento de uma modelagem analítica composta de despesas e receitas existentes em um determinado horizonte de tempo, obtém-se o fluxo caixa resultante do projeto, sobre o qual é calculado o VPL e a TIR em diferentes cenários de receitas advindas da venda dos créditos de carbono. Desta forma, pretende-se apresentar em quais condições a obtenção dos créditos de carbono aumenta o desempenho financeiro de um projeto de eficiência energética e em quais condições este desempenho é reduzido. / The present work has for objective to analyze the financial viability to obtain carbon credits in energy efficiency projects, through the financial indicators Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). From the development of an analytical model composed of existing expenditure and revenue in a defined period of time, the cash flow resulting from the project is obtained, which is calculated on the NPV and IRR at different scenarios of revenue resulting from carbon credits. In such a way, it is intended to present in which conditions to obtain the carbon credits grow up the financial performance of a energy efficiency project and in which conditions this performance is reduced.

The exact ecological and economic role of lion Panthera leo populations on small enclosed reserves is poorly understood. The management and monitoring of such populations is important to ensure their long-term survival. The prey use, range use and habitat selection of an isolated lion population were investigated. The study was conducted on a small (> 1000km2), enclosed predator camp of Tswalu Kalahari Reserve, situated in the Northern Cape Province of the Republic of South Africa. The prey selection, prey preferences and prey biomass removal were determined by using indirect and direct observations. Kill sites, carcasses and scats were located by spoor tracking and opportunistic observations and collated into a prey selection list. The prey selection was used to determine any prey preferences and the prey biomass removal by the lion population. The scats data was corrected for relative prey biomass and compared to the kill data and uncorrected scat data. 19 prey types were used, with the gemsbok Oryx gazelle and blue wildebeest Connochaetes taurinus being utilized most. The lion population had clear preferences for specific small and large mammals which concurred with other studies done on Kalahari lion behaviour. The prey biomass removal (9.9kg/Lion feeding Unit/day) was higher than several other studies done on lion consumption rates. The range use and habitat selection were determined by using direct and indirect observations. The minimum convex polygon method and kernel density estimates were used to delineate the ranges of the lion population. The mean range size of the Tswalu lions (91 km2) was similar to those found for lions in more mesic environments. The lions also had clear habitat preferences which depended on the habitat preferences of the prey and the prey density. A population viability analysis, using VORTEX 9.72, was conducted. An Ecological capacity was determined and used to model various environmental scenarios. The population was found to be viable, but constant monitoring and updating are needed. Management recommendations for the conservation of lions and their prey are provided. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Animal and Wildlife Sciences / unrestricted

A beach conservation programme protecting nesting loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) sea turtles in South Africa was started in 1963. As initial numbers of nesting females were low for both species (107 loggerheads and 24 leatherbacks) it was proposed that the protection of eggs, hatchlings and nesting females along the nesting beach would induce population growth and prohibit local extinction. Today, 50 years later, the loggerhead population exceeds 650 females per annum, whereas the leatherback population counts about 65 nesting females per year. The trend for leatherback turtles is that the population has been stable for about 30 years whereas loggerheads are increasing exponentially. Thus, this thesis investigated several life-history traits to explain the differing responses to the ongoing beach conservation programme. Reproductive output and success were assessed for both species; it was hypothesised that environmental conditions are sub-optimal for leatherback turtles to reproduce successfully. It was ascertained that nesting loggerhead females deposit larger clutches than leatherbacks (112 ± SD 20 eggs and 100 ± SD 23 eggs, respectively), but that annual reproductive output per individual leatherback female exceeds that of loggerhead turtles (±700 eggs and ±448 eggs, respectively) because they exhibit a higher intra-seasonal nesting frequency (leatherbacks n = 7 and loggerheads n = 4 from Nel et al. 2013). Emergence success (i.e. the percentage of hatchlings produced) per nest was similar for both species (loggerhead 73.6 ± SD 27.68 % and leatherback turtles 73.8 ± SD 22.70 %), but as loggerhead turtles nest in greater numbers, i.e. producing more hatchlings per year, the absolute population growth potential favours the loggerhead turtle. The second factor investigated was sex ratio because sea turtles display temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) where extreme incubation temperatures can skew the sex ratio (i.e. feminising or masculinising a clutch). It was suspected that leatherback turtles are male-biased as this is the southern-most rookery (for both species). Further, leatherback nests are generally closer to the high tide mark, which might induce a cooling effect. Standard histological techniques were applied to sex hatchlings and a generalized linear model (GLM) was used to approximate annual sex ratio. Loggerhead sex ratio (2009 - 2011) was estimated at 86.9 ± SE 0.35 % female-biased; however, sufficient replication for the leatherback population was only obtained for season 2010, which indicated a 97.1 % (95 % CI 93.3 - 98.7) female bias. Both species are, thus, highly female-biased, and current sex ratio for leatherback turtles is not prohibiting population growth. Current sex ratios, however, are not necessarily indicative of sex ratios in the past which would have induced present population growth. Thus, to account for present population growth profiles, sex ratios from the past needed to be ascertained. Annual sex ratios (1997 - 2011) were modelled from historical air and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) but no significant change over time was obtained for either loggerhead or leatherback turtles (linear regression; p ≥ 0.45). The average sex ratio over this 15-year period for the South African loggerhead turtle was approximated at 77.1 ± SE 3.36 % female-biased, whereas leatherbacks exhibited a 99.5 ± SE 0.24 % female bias. Re-analysing data from the mid-80s by Maxwell et al. (1988) also indicated a 77.4 % female bias for the South African loggerhead population. It is, therefore, highly likely that sex ratios of the South African loggerhead and leatherback sea turtle populations have been stable for at least three decades and are not accountable for the differing population growth profiles as they are displayed today. Another possibility that could explain the opposed population growth profiles is the time taken for animals to replace themselves, i.e. age at maturity. It was suspected that age at maturity for the South African loggerhead turtle is comparable with that for leatherbacks. Using data from a 30-year mutilation tagging experiment (i.e. notching), age at first reproduction for South African loggerhead females was estimated. Results ranged broadly but a mean of 36.2 ± SD 7.71 years was obtained using a Gaussian distribution. Age at reproduction of the South African leatherback turtle was not determined but the literature suggests a much younger age of 13.3 - 26.8 years (Zug & Parham 1996, Dutton et al. 2005, Avens et al. 2009, Jones et al. 2011). Therefore, population growth would favour leatherback turtles as they exhibit a much shorter generation time. Finally, it was concluded that all life-history parameters investigated favour leatherback turtles, yet loggerheads are displaying population growth. However, as there were no obvious constraints to population growth on the nesting beach, it is suspected that population growth of the South African leatherback turtle is either unobserved (due to inadequate monitoring not capturing sufficient numbers of nesting events to establish a trend) or that population growth is prohibited by some offshore factor such as industrial fisheries (or some other driver not yet identified). Monitoring should, thus, be expanded and offshore mortality monitored as the leatherback population nesting in South Africa is still critically endangered with nesting numbers dangerously low.

No description available.

<p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p>The extinction risk of threatened species has traditionally been assessed by the use of tools of Population Viability Analysis (PVA). Species interactions, however, have seldom been accounted for in PVA:s. The omission of species interactions in risk assessments may further lead to serious mistakes when setting target sizes of populations. Even a slight abundance decrease of a target species may result in changes of the community structure; in the worst case leading to a highly impoverished community. Of critical importance to conservation is therefore the question of how many individuals of a certain population that is needed in order to avoid this kind of consequences. In the current study, a stochastic multispecies model is used to estimate minimum ecological viable populations (MEVP); earlier defined as “the minimum size of a population that can survive before itself or some other species in the community becomes extinct”. The MEVP:s are compared to population sizes given by a single species model where interactions with other species are treated as a constant source incorporated in the species specific growth rate. MEVP:s are found to be larger than the population sizes given by the single species model. The results are trophic level dependent and multispecies approaches are suggested to be of major importance when setting target levels for species at the basal level. Species at higher trophic levels, however, are altogether more prone to extinction than species at the basal level, irrespective of food web size and food web complexity.</p><p> </p>