The extinction risk of threatened species has traditionally been assessed by the use of tools of Population Viability Analysis (PVA). Species interactions, however, have seldom been accounted for in PVA:s. The omission of species interactions in risk assessments may further lead to serious mistakes when setting target sizes of populations. Even a slight abundance decrease of a target species may result in changes of the community structure; in the worst case leading to a highly impoverished community. Of critical importance to conservation is therefore the question of how many individuals of a certain population that is needed in order to avoid this kind of consequences. In the current study, a stochastic multispecies model is used to estimate minimum ecological viable populations (MEVP); earlier defined as “the minimum size of a population that can survive before itself or some other species in the community becomes extinct”. The MEVP:s are compared to population sizes given by a single species model where interactions with other species are treated as a constant source incorporated in the species specific growth rate. MEVP:s are found to be larger than the population sizes given by the single species model. The results are trophic level dependent and multispecies approaches are suggested to be of major importance when setting target levels for species at the basal level. Species at higher trophic levels, however, are altogether more prone to extinction than species at the basal level, irrespective of food web size and food web complexity.

Status and distribution of the Mediterranean monk seal in the northeastern Mediterranean were studied between October 2003 and December 2005. In total, 7 research cruises and 8 research visits were carried out to the region in the study period. The study was generally focused on two regions. First region was mainly around the Cilicia basin in the northeastern Mediterranean where a known Mediterranean monk seal colony (the Cilician colony) inhabits. Second region was around the Gulf of iskenderun where the population status of the monk seals was unknown.In the northeastern Mediterranean, all monk seal caves especially those used for breeding have been checked for whelping and monitored during the study period. In total, 7 pups were found including one death pup in the study period. Observations of the breeding behavior of the species indicated that, whelping also takes place in 2 new caves in addition to the 39 caves already reported for the study area in the earlier studies. Increase in the number of breeding caves showed that the breeding sites of the species has been expanded within the last 5 years. The Cilician colony size was estimated as 30 individuals in 2005. Identification catalog for each individual in the Cilician colony was prepared. Finally, population viability analysis (PVA) for the Cilician monk seal colony was carried out by evaluating the vital parameters of the species, which have been collected since 1994. This analysis was carried out for both pre-conservation phase and the post-conservation phase. In post conservation phase, the survival and fecundity rate of the Cilician colony was found as 0.976 and 0.169 respectively whereas these values were estimated as 0.902 and 0.200 respectively in pre-conservation phase. It was found that there is a 26.9% risk that the monk seal colony abundance will fall below the existing level (30 individuals) at least once during the next 20 years and there is also 0.2% risk that the monk seal colony abundance will fall below 12 at least once during the next 20 years. The risk was found as 21.7% by evaluating the status of the colony in preconservation phase. It was the first PVA study for this species, in which all the parameters used in the analysis were based on the study population, instead of the congeneric Hawaiian Monk Seal. Prior to this study, although monk seals have been frequently sighted by local people in the region, status of the Mediterranean monk seals and presence of the suitable habitats for the species in the Gulf of iskenderun was unknown. Therefore, population status of the Mediterranean monk seal in the Gulf of iskenderun and suitable habitats were investigated. In total, 30 caves were discovered and 7 of them were classified suitable for the Mediterranean monk seal. In addition, a monk seal information network was established in the region in order to gain information about the species especially when the individuals are sighted (alive, injured or death). In total, 51 sighting reports were obtained from local people via the Mediterranean monk seal information network during the study period. Since there are sampling difficulties due to critical status of the Mediterranean monk seal, alternative sampling techniques were investigated in order to find answers to questions related to the monk seal colony inhabiting in the northeastern Mediterranean. For identification of the individuals, comparison of the individuals and monitoring the individuals, 3D model construction technique from photographs was tested as an alternative photoidentification technique for the Mediterranean monk seal. It was found that at least 100 reference points were needed to construct the 3D model of the monk seal.

Rapid development and urbanization of the Lower Florida Keys in the last 30 years has fragmented the habitat of the Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) and threatened it with extinction. Current threats exist at multiple spatiotemporal scales and include threats due to development, invasive species, and global climate change. On Boca Chica Key, the Lower Keys marsh rabbit (LKMR) exists as a metapopulation on Naval Air Station-Key West (NASKW). I conducted a population viability analysis to determine the metapopulation's risk of extinction under multiple management scenarios by developing a spatially-explicit, stage-structured, stochastic matrix model using the programs RAMAS Metapop and ArcGIS. These management scenarios include clearance of airfield vegetation, habitat conversion, and control of feral cats as an invasive species. Model results provided the Navy with relative risk estimates under these different scenarios. Airfield clearance with habitat conversion increased extinction risk, but when coupled with feral cat control, risk was decreased. Because of the potential of sea-level rise due to human-induced global climate change, and its projected impact on the biodiversity of the Florida Keys, I estimated the impacts of rising sea levels on LKMR across its geographic distribution under scenarios of no, low (0.3m), medium (0.6m), and high (0.9m) sea-level rise. I also investigated impacts due to 2 treatments (allowing vegetation to migrate upslope and not allowing migration), and 2 land-use planning decisions (protection and abandonment of humandominated areas). Not surprisingly, under both treatments and both land-use planning decisions, I found a general trend of decreasing total potential LKMR habitat with increasing sea-level rise. Not allowing migration and protecting human-dominated areas both tended to decrease potential LKMR habitat as compared with allowing migration and abandoning human-dominated areas. In conclusion, conservation strategies at multiple scales need to be implemented in order to reduce threats to LKMR, such as development, invasive species, and global climate change.

abstract: Despite years of effort, the field of conservation biology still struggles to incorporate theories of animal behavior. I introduce in Chapter I the issues surrounding the disconnect between behavioral ecology and conservation biology, and propose the use of behavioral knowledge in population viability analysis. In Chapter II, I develop a framework that uses three strategies for incorporating behavior into demographic models, outline the costs of each strategy through decision analysis, and build on previous work in behavioral ecology and demography. First, relevant behavioral mechanisms should be included in demographic models used for conservation decision-making. Second, I propose rapid behavioral assessment as a useful tool to approximate demographic rates through regression of demographic phenomena on observations of related behaviors. This technique provides behaviorally estimated parameters that may be applied to population viability analysis for use in management. Finally, behavioral indices can be used as warning signs of population decline. The proposed framework combines each strategy through decision analysis to provide quantitative rules that determine when incorporating aspects of conservation behavior may be beneficial to management. Chapter III applies this technique to estimate birthrate in a colony of California sea lions in the Gulf of California, Mexico. This study includes a cost analysis of the behavioral and traditional parameter estimation techniques. I then provide in Chapter IV practical recommendations for applying this framework to management programs along with general guidelines for the development of rapid behavioral assessment. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Biology 2012

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This dissertation evaluated the age-sex structure, group size and population density of Alouatta guariba clamitans in 40 forest fragments. We also present a Population Viability Analysis for the subspecies. The study was conducted at Campo de Instrução de Santa Maria (CISM), an area of 5,876 ha belonging to the Ministry of Defense (Brazilian Army) and surrounding areas, located in the municipality of Santa Maria (Rio Grande do Sul State, South Brazil). The fieldwork was conducted from March 2012 to February 2013, totaling 58 days and sampling effort of 431 hours. Our data suggest high mortality in the brown howler monkey populations at CISM. The record of low densities, low occupancy rates in fragments and small group size supports our conclusions. Statistical analyzes showed significant differences between the current population parameters and the previously registered. The PVA results suggest the fragment size and adult female survival as the best parameters contributing for the population growth. Yellow fever is an important threat, especially if the incidence of new outbreaks is high. For the long-term persistence of A. g. clamitans at CISM, the minimum viable population must be at least 573 individuals living in a minimum suitable forest area of 516 ha, which is perfectly plausible for the CISM area. In Rio Grande do Sul state there are practically no conservation units, especially in the western range of the distribution of the brown howler monkey and reinforces the important role of CISM in this scenario, although not a conservation unit. Therefore, if the metapopulation dynamics is granted, it is able to ensure regional long-term survival of A. g. clamitans, unless it suffers more intensely other impacts (such as a new yellow fever outbreak) in a near future. / A presente dissertação avaliou a abundância e densidade das populações, o tamanho e a composição sexo-etária de grupos sociais de Alouatta guariba clamitans em 40 fragmentos florestais no município de Santa Maria. Além disso, apresenta uma análise de viabilidade populacional para a subespécie. Este estudo foi conduzido no Campo de Instrução de Santa Maria (CISM), uma área com 5.876 ha pertencente ao Ministério da Defesa (Exército Brasileiro) localizada no município de Santa Maria (Depressão Central do Rio Grande do Sul), e em áreas particulares do seu entorno. Foram realizadas no período de março de 2012 a fevereiro de 2013 doze campanhas de censo, totalizando 58 dias de campo com esforço amostral de 431 horas. Nossos dados sugerem que houve alta mortalidade nas populações de bugios do CISM após o último levantamento populacional, realizado em 2004. Essa conclusão é apoiada principalmente pela constatação de baixas densidades, reduzidas taxas de ocupação dos fragmentos e grupos com tamanho inferior ao encontrado anteriormente na mesma área. As análises estatísticas mostram que os parâmetros populacionais atuais diferem significativamente dos registrados anteriormente. Os resultados da AVP sugerem que o tamanho do fragmento, a sobrevivência e disponibilidade de fêmeas adultas são os parâmetros que melhor contribuem para as tendências de crescimento populacional. A febre amarela é uma ameaça importante, especialmente se a incidência de novos surtos for alta e a atual composição populacional, de acordo com o modelo, não foi capaz de se recuperar adequadamente em 100 anos. Para a persistência de A. g. clamitans no CISM a população mínima viável deve ser de pelo menos 573 indivíduos em uma área >516 ha de habitat adequado. O que é perfeitamente viável para o CISM, uma vez que o fragmento SAR possui uma área de 977,3 ha. Além disso, no Rio Grande do Sul atualmente praticamente inexistem unidades de conservação, especialmente na metade oeste da distribuição do bugio ruivo. Isso ressalta o papel importante do CISM, ainda que não se trate de uma Unidade de Conservação, logo, se assegurada, a dinâmica de metapopulação é capaz de garantir a sobrevivência regional A. g. clamitans em longo prazo, a menos que a mesma venha a sofrer mais intensamente outros impactos (ex: novo surto de febre amarela) em um futuro próximo.

Submitted by Neusa Fagundes (neusa.fagundes@unioeste.br) on 2018-09-06T14:03:20Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Angelo_Mari2018.pdf: 2243304 bytes, checksum: 694a2b64869c2cc929922f0f08581cd4 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-06T14:03:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Angelo_Mari2018.pdf: 2243304 bytes, checksum: 694a2b64869c2cc929922f0f08581cd4 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-01-31 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Cassava starch industries have produced wastewater, which is their main environmental problem. Therefore, two-phase anaerobic digestion systems represent a newsworthy treatment alternative due to their efficiency in organic load removal and biogas production capacity. Thus, this study aimed at evaluating methane production from cassava starch wastewater in a sequential batch biofilm reactor (AnSBBR) as part of a two-phase system. The evaluation was composed of two main parts: i) analysis of a methanogenic reactor performance according to the increasing organic loads; and ii) the economic availability analysis regarding the reactor scaling-up for industrial scale. In the first part of this study, some previously acidified cassava starch wastewater was used to feed a methanogenic AnSBBR reactor on laboratory scale. The reactor has been submitted to increasing applied organic volumetric loads from 3.7 to 12.0 g COD.L-1.d-1, which were established by variation between affluent concentration and cycle time of a sequential batch reactor. The affluent concentration ranged from 2.8; 4.1 and 6.0 g COD-L-1, in sequential batches with cycle time of 6, 8 and 12 hours. The reactor was carried out at 30±1oC; it was stirred by a liquid phase recirculation and has been filled with support medium composed of polyurethane foam. The results of this first stage have shown that there was an increase in the organic loading rate (OLR) due to an increase on the affluent concentration and, mainly, a decrease on the cycle time duration showed an affect on the reactor performance. Methane productivity increased due to the increase in OLR and has reached 2.7 L CH4 L-1d-1 at OLR 12.0 g COD-L-1.d-1. COD removal has also been affected by OLR increase and ranged from 94 to 60%. And, the lowest values of COD removal were ascribed to the shortest cycle times. All the experimental conditions were constant. In the second part of this study, a two-phase anaerobic digestion system was designed on an industrial scale, based on the results previously obtained. Finally, an economic feasibility analysis was developed to settle down this project, which considered a twenty-year useful life term. The results of the second phase evinced that the simple payback was 8.4 years and the discounted payback was 15.9 years. Thus, it was recorded that this project can bring forth a profit similar to the net present value (R$ 1.9 million) at the end of the project lifetime, while internal rate of return was calculated in 11.1%. These results indicated that the two-stage system is economically viable to produce methane from starch wastewater. / As indústrias de produção de fécula de mandioca têm nas águas residuárias seu principal passivo ambiental, e o sistema de digestão anaeróbia em duas fases representa uma alternativa relevante de tratamento, devido à eficiência em remover a carga orgânica e a capacidade de produção de biogás. Assim, este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a produção de metano a partir de água residuária de fecularia em um reator em batelada sequencial com biomassa imobilizada (AnSBBR) como parte de um sistema em duas fases. A avaliação desenvolvida foi composta por duas partes principais: i) análise do desempenho do reator metanogênico em função de cargas orgânicas crescentes; ii) análise de viabilidade econômica da ampliação do reator para a escala industrial. Na primeira parte do estudo, utilizou-se água residuária de fecularia previamente acidificada para abastecer um reator AnSBBR metanogênico em escala de laboratório. O reator foi submetido a cargas orgânicas volumétricas aplicadas (COVa) de 3,7 a 12,0 g DQO L-1d-1, estabelecidas pela variação entre a concentração do afluente e o tempo de ciclo do reator em batelada sequencial. As faixas de concentração testadas foram de 2,8; 4,1 e 6,0 g DQO.L-1, em bateladas sequenciais com tempos de ciclo de 6, 8 e 12 horas. O reator foi operado na temperatura de 30±1 oC, e contou com agitação por recirculação da fase líquida e meio suporte composto por espuma de poliuretano. Os resultados da primeira etapa demonstraram que o aumento da carga orgânica volumétrica pelo incremento da concentração do afluente e, principalmente, pela redução do tempo de ciclo, influenciou no desempenho do reator. A produtividade de metano aumentou com o acréscimo da COVa e atingiu 2,7 LCH4 L-1d-1 na COVa de 12,0 g DQO L-1d-1. A remoção de DQO também foi afetada pelo aumento da COVa, tendo variado de 94 e 60%, logo, os menores valores de remoção de DQO são atribuídos aos menores tempos de ciclo. Todas as condições experimentais se mostraram estáveis. Na segunda parte do estudo, dimensionou-se um sistema de digestão anaeróbia em duas fases em escala industrial, a partir dos resultados obtidos anteriormente. Por fim, foi desenvolvida uma análise de viabilidade econômica da implantação do projeto, que considerou um período de vida útil de vinte anos. Os resultados da segunda etapa demonstraram que o payback simples foi de 8,4 anos e o payback descontado de 15,9 anos. Ao final do tempo de vida útil, o projeto gerou lucro igual ao valor presente líquido de R$ 1,89 milhão e a taxa interna de retorno foi de 11,1%. Os resultados indicaram que o sistema em duas fases para a produção de metano a partir de água residuária de fecularia é economicamente viável.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第21614号 / 理博第4521号 / 新制||理||1649(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科生物科学専攻 / (主査)教授 村山 美穂, 教授 幸島 司郎, 教授 平田 聡 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

No description available.

Habitat loss and predation are threatening many shorebird populations worldwide. While habitat preservation often is preferable, sometimes habitat needs to be restored or created in order to stave off immediate declines. The Great Plains population of piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) was listed as threatened in 1986, and habitat loss and predation appear to be limiting the growth of this population. On the Missouri River, piping plovers nest on sandbars, but the damming of the mainstem of the Missouri in the mid-twentieth century reduced the natural capacity of the Missouri River to create sandbar habitat. In 2004, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) implemented a habitat creation project on the Gavins Point Reach of the Missouri River (stretch of river immediately downriver from the Gavins Point Dam) in an effort to promote recovery of piping plovers and the endangered least tern (Sternula antillarum). The USACE built 3 sandbars in 2004 – 2005 and built another sandbar on Lewis and Clark Lake in 2007. We studied the population dynamics of piping plovers in relationship to this newly engineered habitat. We monitored 623 nests on 16 sandbar complexes, to evaluate habitat selection, determine the factors affecting nesting success, and compare nesting success between natural and engineered habitat. From these 623 nests, we banded 357 adults and 685 chicks to investigate the factors affecting adult and juvenile survival. We used a logistic-exposure model to calculate nest survival. Adult and juvenile survival was calculated using Cormack-Jolly-Seber based models in Program MARK. We used the estimates from these studies to create a matrix population model for piping plovers nesting on the Gavins Point Reach. We used this model to predict the effects of engineered habitat on the population growth rate. Piping plovers selected for engineered sandbars and against natural and natural/modified habitats. Daily survival rate (DSR) on engineered habitats was significantly higher than on natural or natural modified habitats (log odds: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.20 – 6.08). Predator exclosures around nests did not affect DSR after controlling for the effects of date, nest age, and clutch size. Piping plover juvenile survival to recruitment was negatively related to nesting density on the relatively densely populated engineered sandbars. On the less dense natural sandbars, survival to recruitment was positively correlated with density. Adult survival did not appear to be related to density within our study. Movement within the study area was related also to density. Juveniles from densely populated engineered sandbars were more likely to leave engineered habitat to nest on natural sandbars than were juveniles hatched on less densely populated engineered sandbars. Movements among sandbars by breeding adults suggested that adults preferred engineered habitat. It is possible that juveniles moved to natural habitats because they were unable to compete with adults for the more desirable engineered habitats. Adults and juveniles emigrated from the study area at a higher rate after the 2006 breeding season, a year when water discharge was higher, nesting densities were higher, and reproductive success was lower (as a result of predation) than in the other years. Deterministic modeling suggested that engineered habitat significantly increased population growth. Decreased productivity over time and associated predicted negative population growth suggest that the amount of engineered habitat created was inadequate to sustain population growth, and/or that relatively high water discharge and nesting densities coupled with low reproductive rates and high emigration rates could lead to rapid declines in the plover population. Continued research is needed to determine the effects of these factors on long-term population growth. Our results suggest that habitat creation could be a viable short-term solution to population declines in shorebird populations limited by habitat loss, but high densities and increased predation associated with habitat creation indicate that other, long-term solutions may be required. / Ph. D.

Increased temperatures due to anthropogenic-induced climate change may raise the threat of extinction for taxa with sessile life histories (e.g., plants) in the near future. Linking climate change models to demographic models may provide useful insights into the potential effects of environmental changes on rare plants, and therefore aid in their current and future conservation. Population demographers generally agree that mechanistic models from a reductionist perspective are necessary to test assumptions in population drivers. For the first study, I assessed the climate vulnerability of a rare plant species, Pyrrocoma radiata, with a mechanistic model of four climatically-similar populations. I used environmentally-driven demographic models to estimate vital rates and population sizes from a nonlinear, nonparametric regression with local climate variables. I assessed the utility of this environmentally-correlated, stage-structured population matrix model compared to a stationary model of independent and identically-distributed environmental stochasticity. I then simulated future population projections based on climate conditions predicted by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under opposing emission scenarios. The second study hopes to answer population-level questions using a traditionally community-level method, non-metric multidimensional scaling, which considers correlation structure between response variables and can be used to find environmental correlates of the ordination axes. Demographic data on a threatened perennial, Astragalus tyghensis, were collected from five sites in the Tygh Valley, OR. I considered correlation structure between demographic vital rates to find environmental correlates of the ordination axes. The search for an environmental driver of population vital rates was successful for the two study species. Previous year dry dormant season precipitation likely affects the fertility rates a year later in P. radiata populations, and dry growing season reference evapotranspiration rates positively correlated with a growth gradient in A. tyghensis. Based on predicted precipitation, P. radiata is expected to rapidly decline by 2050, but this may be due to biases in the two GCMs and reliance on only one environmental factor. The NMS ordination adequately captured most of the variation in transition elements for the years and populations from A. tyghensis demographics. I provided support to the claim that model predictions can improve with the inclusion of mechanistic relationships. The inclusion of abiotic drivers in models used to predict population trends is supported by our study and may enhance predictive power in population viability assessments under changing climates. / Graduation date: 2013