京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第25466号 / 地環博第252号 / 新制||地環||50(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)教授 宇佐美 誠, 准教授 TRENCHER Gregory, 教授 竹内 憲司 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DFAM

Controversy in transboundary rivers usually arises due to a lack of inclusive agreement and cooperation between the basin countries. Originating from Ethiopia, the Blue Nile River contributes most of the Nile River water making it vital for water, energy, and food security at downstream Sudan and Egypt. In 2011, the Ethiopian government announced the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) along the Blue Nile 40 km away from the Sudanese borders. The dam will be the biggest in Africa and seventh-largest in the world producing 6,000 Megawatts of electricity with a reservoir volume of 74 billion cubic meters. Great concerns were raised on the impact of this megaproject for downstream countries due to the expected changes in water quantity and quality. Different studies were published regarding the potential impacts of this dam on the Eastern Nile countries. However, these studies have usually focused on one aspect of the impact (e.g. hydropower, agricultural projects, water use) despite the connection that exists between these sectors. This research aims to investigate the impact the GERD operation will have on Sudan in terms of WEF security and sustainability. The study uses the WEF security nexus framework that addresses the interconnectedness between these sectors instead of treating them in silos. A sustainability assessment is also carried out to analyze the impact of the dam operation on the environmental, social and economic areas in Sudan. The study first looked into the current state of Sudan’s WEF security nexus and highlighted the vulnerabilities that exist within these sectors. Then an analysis of the GERD operation was carried out and the results showed that water regulation and sediment reduction will reflect positively on Sudan as it will enable for expansion in agricultural projects, increase hydropower production, and provide flood control. Some negative impacts, however, are to be expected especially during the impounding phase from water level reduction and change in river characteristic which will greatly affect the environment and society downstream. The safety of the dam was found to be the biggest threat to Sudan’s security, as the case of dam failure will have catastrophic consequences for the country. The study concluded that an increase in cooperation between the Eastern Nile countries will decrease the downstream negative impacts of the GERD and increase its overall benefits ultimately leading to sustainability, peace, and welfare for these countries. Sudan also needs to take measures in accommodating the new flowing conditions including reoperation of the Sudanese dams and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts.

A fundamental change in societal values and economic structures is required to address increasing pressures on ecosystems and natural resources. Transition research has developed in the last decades to analyze the co-dynamics of technological, institutional, social and economic elements in the provision of key functions such as energy, water and food supply. This doctoral dissertation provides conceptual and methodological contributions to the pro-active governance of sustainability transitions. Three research gaps are identified that are addressed in this dissertation. First, a comprehensive conceptualization of learning in sustainability transitions is currently missing that comprises learning at multiple societal levels (ranging from individuals to policy-actors). Learning concepts are often not explicitly discussed in transition research even though learning is considered as fundamental for innovation processes, niche formation and development as well as breakthrough and diffusion of innovations. Second, methods for the analysis and design of transition governance processes are lacking that specify case-specific intervention points and roles of actors in the implementation of innovations. Third, participatory modeling approaches are only applied to a limited extent in transition research despite a high potential for supporting communication and learning. The conceptualization of multi-level learning developed in this doctoral research conceptualizes learning at different societal levels as specific learning contexts ranging from individual and group contexts to organizational and policy contexts. The conceptual framework further differentiates between learning processes, intensity, objects, outcomes, subjects and factors, allowing for a more detailed analysis of learning within and across learning contexts. Thus, learning contexts can be linked by processes that involve actors from different learning contexts (e.g., community groups and policy-makers), as well as exchanges of physical aspects, institutions and knowledge (in the form of ‘learning factors’). This research has also provided a classification of model uses in transition research that supports a purposeful discussion of the opportunities of modeling and promising future research directions. The methodology developed in this doctoral research aims at the analysis and design of transition governance processes by specifying the various opportunities to contribute to sustainability transitions through purposeful action at different societal levels, as well as related roles of stakeholders in implementing such processes of change. The methodology combines different streams of previous research: 1) a participatory modeling approach to identify problem perceptions, case-specific sustainability innovations as well as related implementation barriers, drivers and responsibilities; 2) a systematic review to identify supportive and impeding learning factors from the general literature that can complement case-specific factors; and 3) a method for the analysis and design of case-specific transition governance processes. Three case studies in Canada (topic: sustainable food systems), Cyprus (water-energy-food nexus) and Germany (sustainable heating supply) have been selected to test and iteratively develop the methodology described above. The results for each case study reveal that there are learning objects (i.e., learning requirements) in all learning contexts, which underscores the importance of multi-level learning in sustainability transitions, ranging from the individual to the group, organizational and policy levels. Actors have various opportunities to actively facilitate societal transformations towards sustainable development either directly through actions at their particular societal levels (i.e., context-internal learning) or indirectly through actions that influence learning at other societal levels. In fact, most of the learning factors require cooperation across learning contexts during the implementation process. The comparing of learning factors across case studies underline the importance of several factor categories, such as ‘physical a ‘disturbance or crisis’, ‘information and knowledge’. Of the 206 factors identified by stakeholders, 40 factors are case-specific and not contained in the general, review-based factor list. This underscores the value of participatory research, as general, top-down analyses might have overlooked these case-specific factors. The methodology presented in this dissertation allows for the identification and analysis of case-specific intervention points for sustainability transitions at multiple societal levels. The methodology furthermore permits the analysis of interplay between individual, group, organizational and policy actions, which is a first step towards their coordination. The focus on sustainability innovations links the broad topic of sustainability transitions to a set of opportunities for practical interventions and overcoming their implementation barriers. The methodology presented allows for the analysis and design of these interlinkages between learning contexts. While the methodology cannot provide any ‘silver bullets’ for inducing sustainability transitions, it is flexible enough to identify an appropriate abstraction level for analyzing and designing transition governance processes. The methodology developed in this doctoral research also provides several contributions for the development of participatory modeling methods in transition research. Thus, the participatory method supports an integrated analysis of barriers and drivers of sustainability innovations, and allows application in practice and education. The concepts and methods developed in this research project allow for reflection on transition governance processes from a systemic viewpoint. Experiences in the case studies underline the applicability of the concepts and methods developed for the analysis of case-specific transition governance processes. Despite substantial differences in the geographic location, culture and topics addressed, all case studies include promising sustainability innovations and the engagement of multiple actors in their implementation. The diversity and multitude of initiatives in the case study regions provides an optimistic outlook on future opportunities for large-scale sustainability transitions.