Yes / Multi-Stage Flash (MSF) desalination process has been used for decades for making fresh water from seawater and is the largest sector in desalination industries. In this work, dynamic optimisation of MSF desalination is carried out using powerful and robust dynamic simulation and optimisation software called gPROMS model builder. For a fixed freshwater demand, a number of optimal combinations of the factors such as heat transfer area, brine flow rate, cooling water flow rate, steam flow in brine heater, Top Brine Temperature, the number of stages, etc. are determined with the objective of maximising the performance ratio of the process (defined as the amount of fresh water produced per unit of energy input) considering the seasonal variations. An attempt has been made to develop an operational schedule for a particular day using dynamic optimisation.

Yes / Simultaneous optimisation of design and operating parameters of MSF desalination process is considered here using MINLP technique within gPROMS software. For a fixed fresh water demand throughout the year and with seasonal variation of seawater temperature, the external heat input (a measure of operating cost) to the process is minimised. It is observed that seasonal variation in seawater temperature results in significant variation in design with minimum variation in operating conditions in terms of process temperatures. The results also reveal the possibility of designing stand-alone flash stages which would offer flexible scheduling in terms of the connection of various units (to build up the process) and efficient maintenance of the units throughout the year as the weather condition changes. In addition, operation at low temperatures throughout the year will reduce design and operating costs in terms of low temperature materials of construction and reduced amount of antiscaling and anti-corrosion agents.

No / Optimal design and operation of MSF desalination process is considered here using MINLP technique within gPROMS model builder 2.3.4. gPROMS provides an easy and flexible platform to build a process flowsheet graphically and the corresponding master model connecting automatically individual unit model equations during simulation and optimisation. For different freshwater demand throughout the year and with seasonal variation of seawater temperature, the total annualised cost of desalination is minimised. It is found that seasonal variation in seawater temperature results in significant variation in design and some of the operating parameters but with minimum variation in of process temperatures. The results also reveal the possibility of designing stand-alone flash stages which would offer flexible scheduling in terms of the connection of various units (to build up the process) and efficient maintenance of the units throughout the year as the weather condition changes. In addition, operation at low temperatures throughout the year will reduce design and operating costs in terms of low temperature materials of construction and reduced amount of anti-scaling and anti-corrosion agents.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The expected peak water demand in a water distribution system (WDS) is an important consideration for WDS design purposes. In South Africa the most common method of estimating peak demand is by multiplying the average demand by a dimensionless peak factor. A peak factor is the ratio between the maximum flow rate (which refers to the largest volume of flow to be received during a relatively short time period, say , expressed as the average volume per unit time), and the average flow rate over an extended time period. The magnitude of the peak factor will vary, for a given daily water demand pattern, depending on the chosen value of . The design guidelines available give no clear indication of the time intervals most appropriate for different peak factor applications. It is therefore important to gain a better understanding regarding the effect of on the derived peak factor. A probability based end-use model was constructed as part of this study to derive diurnal residential indoor water demand patterns on a temporal scale of one second. These stochastically derived water demand patterns were subsequently used to calculate peak factors for different values of , varying from one second to one hour. The end-use model derived the water demand patterns by aggregating the synthesised end-use events of six residential indoor end-uses of water in terms of the water volume required, duration and the time of occurrence of each event. The probability distributions describing the end-use model parameters were derived from actual end-use measurements that had previously been collected in a noteworthy North-American end-use project (Mayer et al., 1999). The original comprehensive database, which included water measurements from both indoor and outdoor end-uses, was purchased for use in this project. A single execution of the end-use model resulted in the synthesised diurnal water demand pattern for a single household. The estimated water demand pattern for simultaneous water demand by groups of households was obtained by adding individual iterations of the end-use model, considering group sizes of between one and 2 000 households in the process. A total of 99 500 model executions were performed, which were statistically aggregated by applying the Monte Carlo method and forming 4 950 unique water demand scenarios representing 29 different household group sizes. For each of the 4 950 water demand scenarios, a set of peak factors was derived for eight selected values. The end-use model presented in this study yielded realistic indoor water demand estimations when compared to publications from literature. In agreement with existing knowledge, as expected, an inverse relationship was evident between the magnitude of the peak factors and . The peak factors across all time intervals were also found to be inversely related to the number of households, which agreed with other publications from literature. As the number of households increased, the degree to which the peak factor was affected by the time intervals decreased. This study explicitly demonstrated the effect of time intervals on peak factors. The results of this study could act as the basis for the derivation of a practical design guideline for estimating peak indoor flows in a WDS, and the work could be extended in future to include outdoor water demand and sensitivity to WDS pressure. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die verwagte water spitsaanvraag is ‘n belangrike oorweging in die ontwerp van ‘n waterverspreidingsnetwerk. Die mees algemene metode in Suid Afrika om spitsaanvraag te bereken is deur die gemiddelde wateraanvraag te vermeningvuldig met ‘n dimensielose spitsfaktor. ‘n Spitsfaktor is die verhouding tussen die maksimum watervloei tempo (wat verwys na die grootste volume water wat ontvang sal word tydens ‘n relatiewe kort tydsinterval, , uitgedruk as die gemiddelde volume per tyd eenheid), en die gemiddelde watervloei tempo gedurende ‘n verlengde tydsinterval. Die grootte van die spitsfaktor sal varieer vir ‘n gegewe daaglikse vloeipatroon, afhangende van die verkose waarde. Die beskikbare ontwerpsriglyne is onduidelik oor watter tydsintervalle meer geskik is vir die verskillende spitsfaktor toepassings. Daarom is dit belangrik om ‘n beter begrip te verkry ten opsigte van die effek van op die verkrygde spitsfaktor. ‘n Waarskynliksheidsgebaseerde eindverbruik model is opgestel om deel te vorm van hierdie studie, om daaglikse residensiële binnenshuise wateraanvraag patrone af te lei op ‘n temporale skaal van een sekonde. Die stogasties afgeleide wateraanvraag patrone is daarna gebruik om die verskeie spitsfaktore te bereken vir verskillende waardes van , wat varieer vanaf een sekonde tot een uur. Die eindverbruik model stel die daaglikse vloeipatroon van een huis saam deur die eindeverbruik gebeure van ses residensiële binnenshuise eindverbruike saam te voeg in terme van the vereiste water volume en die tyd van voorkoms van elke gebeurtenis. Die waarskynliksheids distribusie wat die eindverbruik model parameters omskryf is verkry van werklike gemete eindverbruik waardes, wat voorheen in ‘n beduidende Noord-Amerikaanse eindverbruik projek (Mayer et al. 1999) versamel is. Die oorspronklike en omvattende databasis, wat gemete waardes van binnenshuis en buite water verbruik ingesluit het, is aangekoop vir gebruik gedurende hierdie projek. ‘n Enkele uitvoering van die eindverbruik model stel gevolglik ‘n daaglikse wateraanvraag patroon saam vir ‘n elkele huishouding. Die wateraanvraag patroon vir gelyktydige water verbruik deur groepe huishoudings is verkry deur individuele iterasies van die eindverbruik model statisties bymekaar te tel met die Monte Carlo metode, terwyl groep groottes van tussen een en 2 000 huishoudings in die proses oorweeg is. ‘n Totaal van 99 500 model uitvoerings is gedoen, wat saamgevoeg is om 4 950 unieke watervraag scenarios voor te stel, wat verteenwoordigend is van 29 verskillende huishouding groep groottes. Vir elkeen van die 4 950 watervraag senarios, is ‘n stel spitsfaktore afgelei vir agt verkose waardes. Die eindverbruik model aangebied in hierdie studie lewer ‘n realistiese binnenshuise wateraanvraag skatting, wanneer dit vergelyk word met verslae in die literatuur. Ooreenkomstig met bestaande kennis is ‘n sterk inverse verhouding sigbaar tussen die grootte van die spitsfaktore en . Dit is ook gevind dat die spitsfaktore oor al die tydsintervalle ‘n inverse verband toon tot die aantal huishoudings, wat ooreenstemmend is met ander publikasies in die literatuur. Soos die aantal huishoudings toeneem, het die mate waartoe die spitsfaktor geaffekteer is deur die tydsintervalle afgeneem. Hierdie studie toon duidelik die effek van tydsintervalle op spitsfaktore. Die resultaat van hierdie studie kan dien as basis om praktiese ontwerpsriglyne te verkry in die skatting van binnenshuise spitsvloei in ‘n waterverspreidingsnetwerk, gegewe dat die werk in die toekoms uitgebrei kan word om ook buitenshuise waterverbruik in te sluit, asook sensitiwiteit tot druk in die waterverspreidingsnetwerk.

M. Tech. Civil Engineering / South Africa is categorized as a water stressed country and it is forecasted to experience physical water scarcity by the year 2025 with a yearly water availability of less than 1000m3 per capita. Continuous pollution of the available water resources from the sources, and the high population growth and its attributes will increase pressure on the available resources and probably resulting in increased conflicts over allocations and more stress resulting in water scarcity. The overall aim of the study was to develop tools and strategies for Water Demand Management in Mabopane, Garankuwa and Winterveldt, which are the areas supplied by Sandspruit Works Association.

A crucial decision in the real-time management of today’s irrigation systems involves the coordination of diversions and delivery of water to croplands. Since most irrigation systems experience significant lags between when water is diverted and when it should be delivered, an important technical innovation in the next few years will involve improvements in short-term irrigation demand forecasting. The main objective of the researches presented was the development of these critically important models: (1) potential evapotranspiration forecasting; (2) hydraulic model error correction; and (3) estimation of aggregate water demands. These tools are based on statistical machine learning or data-driven modeling. These, of wide application in several areas of engineering analysis, can be used in irrigation and system management to provide improved and timely information to water managers. The development of such models is based on a Bayesian data-driven algorithm called the Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), and an extension of it, the Multivariate Relevance Vector Machine (MVRVM). The use of these types of learning machines has the advantage of avoidance of model overfitting, high robustness in the presence of unseen data, and uncertainty estimation for the results (error bars). The models were applied in an irrigation system located in the Lower Sevier River Basin near Delta, Utah. For the first model, the proposed method allows for estimation of future crop water demand values up to four days in advance. The model uses only daily air temperatures and the MVRVM as mapping algorithm. The second model minimizes the lumped error occurring in hydraulic simulation models. The RVM is applied as an error modeler, providing estimations of the occurring errors during the simulation runs. The third model provides estimation of future water releases for an entire agricultural area based on local data and satellite imagery up to two days in advance. The results obtained indicate the excellent adequacy in terms of accuracy, robustness, and stability, especially in the presence of unseen data. The comparison provided against another data-driven algorithm, of wide use in engineering, the Multilayer Perceptron, further validates the adequacy of use of the RVM and MVRVM for these types of processes.

This thesis deals with stochastic water demand modellling in the water supply network. In the opening section, a research is created, where two different approaches to stochastic modelling of water consumption are presented. The practical part describes the creation of a deterministic hydraulic model and its calibration. Generated stochastic water demand patterns with a small time step of 1 minute, are then inserted into this model. Each household is assigned with a unique water demand pattern. Then a hydraulic analysis was done. A comparison of deterministic and stochastic approaches is presented at the end of the thesis. The comparison shows, that small-time step modelling does not have a big impact on the pressure ratios in the water supply network, but has a huge impact on the maximum flows and speeds occurring in links of the hydraulic model.

The research study focused on assessing the potential risk of failing to maintain water supply in the Rand Water area. The study analysed all factors and areas that contributes to water supply in the Rand Water area; this included municipalities supplied by Rand Water, the Department of Water Affairs and other factors that directly affect Rand Water supply such as population growth, increased urbanisation and acid mine drainage. The objectives of the study were: (a) is to determine the potential risk of failing to maintain supply in the Rand Water supply area, in other words, the likeliness of water not being supplied adequately to customers. (b) generate timely and credible information to determine the understanding, awareness, and acknowledgement by the sampled management group of the existence of the potential water supply risk in the Rand Water supply area. This will be done through a quantitative study. The research study approach that was utilized was a quantitative methodology; this approach included the distribution of questionnaires to all relevant stakeholders in the Rand Water supply area. To address the problems that are highlighted in the problem statement and achieve the objectives of the study these answered questionnaires were then sent to a Statistical consultant at North-West University‟s Potchefstroom Campus, to be analysed using an SPSS Version 21 statistical program. The questionnaires were divided into the three big municipal customers, these municipalities combined takes a total of 74.35% of Rand Water supply; these are Johannesburg Water which is part of the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality, Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality, Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality and other small municipalities and the Department of Water Affairs‟ officials. Many previous studies also were assessed to be able to help this study establish the seriousness of the water challenge, the amount of work that has already been done, factors contributing to the problem and finally, measures that can be put in place to address the problem. The results that were obtained for this study provided many relationships between this study‟s selected variables and also highlighted the need to put certain strategies in place to be able to control the growing demand for water in the Rand Water system. The name of the Department of Water Affairs has changed many times over the year. It used to be called DWAF (Department of Water Affairs and Forestry, then DWEA (Department of Water and Environmental Affairs, then DWA (Department of Water Affairs) and it has recently been changed to DWS (Department of Water and Sanitation. For the purposes of this study this department will be called DWA (The Department of Water Affairs) The results were very relevant as most of the relationships were found between variables that are practically supposed to be related in order for the problem to be dealt with fruitfully. From these results it could be concluded that the risk of failing to maintain water supply in the Rand Water supply area does exist, if certain factors were allowed to trend the way they‟ve been trending without measures in place to counteract them. It could also be concluded that certain measures have been initiated to deal with the problem; this included water demand management. Results indicated that collective efforts from all stakeholders in the Rand Water supply area will be crucial in addressing the water supply challenge and avoid future failure to supply. To close the gap between previous research studies and this research study recommendations were made. Areas of future research were also highlighted; these are areas that can add value in providing valued information to help the challenge of water shortage in the Rand Water supply area. This area of future research studies will also be crucial in identifying other external factors that were not highlighted in the study but contribute to the problem. This area of future research studies will also help when implementing turnaround strategies to avoid the risk of failing to maintain supply in the Rand Water area as it will be able to highlight a different strategy that deals with the problem holistically. / MBA, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

The research study focused on assessing the potential risk of failing to maintain water supply in the Rand Water area. The study analysed all factors and areas that contributes to water supply in the Rand Water area; this included municipalities supplied by Rand Water, the Department of Water Affairs and other factors that directly affect Rand Water supply such as population growth, increased urbanisation and acid mine drainage. The objectives of the study were: (a) is to determine the potential risk of failing to maintain supply in the Rand Water supply area, in other words, the likeliness of water not being supplied adequately to customers. (b) generate timely and credible information to determine the understanding, awareness, and acknowledgement by the sampled management group of the existence of the potential water supply risk in the Rand Water supply area. This will be done through a quantitative study. The research study approach that was utilized was a quantitative methodology; this approach included the distribution of questionnaires to all relevant stakeholders in the Rand Water supply area. To address the problems that are highlighted in the problem statement and achieve the objectives of the study these answered questionnaires were then sent to a Statistical consultant at North-West University‟s Potchefstroom Campus, to be analysed using an SPSS Version 21 statistical program. The questionnaires were divided into the three big municipal customers, these municipalities combined takes a total of 74.35% of Rand Water supply; these are Johannesburg Water which is part of the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality, Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality, Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality and other small municipalities and the Department of Water Affairs‟ officials. Many previous studies also were assessed to be able to help this study establish the seriousness of the water challenge, the amount of work that has already been done, factors contributing to the problem and finally, measures that can be put in place to address the problem. The results that were obtained for this study provided many relationships between this study‟s selected variables and also highlighted the need to put certain strategies in place to be able to control the growing demand for water in the Rand Water system. The name of the Department of Water Affairs has changed many times over the year. It used to be called DWAF (Department of Water Affairs and Forestry, then DWEA (Department of Water and Environmental Affairs, then DWA (Department of Water Affairs) and it has recently been changed to DWS (Department of Water and Sanitation. For the purposes of this study this department will be called DWA (The Department of Water Affairs) The results were very relevant as most of the relationships were found between variables that are practically supposed to be related in order for the problem to be dealt with fruitfully. From these results it could be concluded that the risk of failing to maintain water supply in the Rand Water supply area does exist, if certain factors were allowed to trend the way they‟ve been trending without measures in place to counteract them. It could also be concluded that certain measures have been initiated to deal with the problem; this included water demand management. Results indicated that collective efforts from all stakeholders in the Rand Water supply area will be crucial in addressing the water supply challenge and avoid future failure to supply. To close the gap between previous research studies and this research study recommendations were made. Areas of future research were also highlighted; these are areas that can add value in providing valued information to help the challenge of water shortage in the Rand Water supply area. This area of future research studies will also be crucial in identifying other external factors that were not highlighted in the study but contribute to the problem. This area of future research studies will also help when implementing turnaround strategies to avoid the risk of failing to maintain supply in the Rand Water area as it will be able to highlight a different strategy that deals with the problem holistically. / MBA, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The design of a water supply system relies on the knowledge of the water demands of its specific end-users. It is also important to understand the end-users’ temporal variation in water demand. Failure of the system to provide the required volume of water at the required flow-rate is deemed a system failure. The system therefore needs to be designed with sufficient capacity to ensure that it is able to supply the required volume of water during the highest demand periods. In practice, bulk water supply systems do not have to cater for the high frequency, short duration high peak demand scenarios of the end-user, such as the peak hour or peak day events, as the impact of events is reduced by the provision of water storage capacity at the off-take from the bulk supply system. However, for peak demand scenarios with durations longer than an hour or a day, depending on the situation, the provision of sufficient storage capacity to reduce the impact on the bulk water system, becomes impractical and could lead to potential water quality issues during low demand periods. It is, therefore, a requirement that bulk water systems be designed to be able to meet the peak weekly or peak month end-user demands. These peak demand scenarios usually occur only during a certain portion of the year, generally concentrated in a two to three month period during the drier months. Existing design guidelines usually follow a deterministic design approach, whereby a suitable DPF is applied to the average annual daily system demand in order to determine the expected peak demand on the system. This DPF does not account for the potential variability in end-user demand profiles, or the impact that end-storage has on the required peak design factor of the bulk system. This study investigated the temporal variations of end-user demand on two bulk water supply systems. These systems are located in the winter rainfall region of the Western Cape province of South Africa. The data analysed was the monthly measured consumption figures of different end-users supplied from the two systems. The data-sets extended over 14 years of data. Actual monthly peak factors were extracted from this data and used in deterministic and probabilistic methods to determine the expected monthly peak factor for both the end-user and the system design. The probabilistic method made use of a Monte Carlo analysis, whereby the actual recorded monthly peak factor for each end-user per bulk system was used as an input into discrete probability functions. The Monte Carlo analysis executed 1 500 000 iterations in order to produce probability distributions of the monthly peak factors for each system. The deterministic and probabilistic results were compared to the actual monthly peak factors as calculated from the existing water use data, as well as against current DPFs as published in guidelines used in the industry. The study demonstrated that the deterministic method would overstate the expected peak system demand and result in an oversized system. The probabilistic method yielded good results and compared well with the actual monthly peak factors. It is thus deemed an appropriate tool to use to determine the required DPF of a bulk water system for a chosen reliability of supply. The study also indicated the DPFs proposed by current guidelines to be too low. The study identified a potential relationship between the average demand of an end-user and the expected maximum monthly peak factor, whereas in current guidelines peak factors are not indicated as being influenced by the end-user average demand. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die ontwerp van ‘n watervoorsiening stelsel berus op die kennis van die water aanvraag van sy spesifieke eindverbruikers. Dit is ook belangrik om ‘n begrip te hê van die tydelike variasie van die eindverbruiker se water-aanvraag. Indien die voorsieningstelsel nie in staat is om die benodigde volume water teen die verlangde vloeitempo te kan lewer nie, word dit beskou as ‘n faling. Die stelsel word dus ontwerp met voldoende kapasiteit wat dit sal in staat stel om die benodigde volume gedurende die hoogste aanvraag periodes te kan voorsien. In die praktyk hoef grootmaat water-voorsiening stelsels nie te voldoen aan spits watergebeurtenisse met hoë frekwensie en kort duurtes, soos piek-dag of piek-uur aanvraag nie, aangesien hierdie gebeurtenisse se impak op die grootmaat stelsel verminder word deur die voorsiening van wateropgaring fasiliteite by die aftap-punte vanaf die grootmaatstelsels. Nieteenstaande, vir piek-aanvraag gebeurtenisse met langer duurtes as ‘n uur of dag, raak die voorsiening van voldoende wateropgaring kapasiteit by die aftap-punt onprakties en kan dit selfs lei tot waterkwaliteits probleme. Dit is dus ‘n vereiste dat grootmaat watervoorsienings stelsels ontwerp moet word om die piek-week of piek-maand eindverbruiker aanvrae te kan voorsien. Hierdie piek-aanvraag gebeurtenisse vind algemeen in gekonsentreerde twee- of drie maand periodes tydens die droeër maande plaas. Bestaande ontwerpsriglyne volg gewoonlik ‘n deterministiese ontwerp benadering, deurdat ‘n voldoende ontwerp spits faktor toegepas word op die gemiddelde jaarlikse daaglikse stelsel aanvraag om sodoende te bepaal wat die verwagte spits aanvraag van die stelsel sal wees. Hierdie ontwerp spits faktor maak nie voorsiening vir die potensiële variasie in die eindverbruiker se aanvraag karakter of die impak van die beskikbare water-opgaring fasiliteit op die benodigde ontwerp spits faktor van die grootmaat-stelsel nie. Hierdie studie ondersoek die tydelike variasie van die eindverbruiker se aanvraag op twee grootmaat watervoorsiening stelsels. Die twee stelsels is geleë in die winter reënval streek van die Wes-Kaap provinsie van Suid-Afrika. Die data wat geanaliseer is was die maandelikse gemeterde verbruiksyfers van verskillende eindverbruikers voorsien deur die twee stelsels. Die datastelle het oor 14 jaar gestrek. Die ware maand piekfaktore is bereken vanaf die data en is in deterministiese en probabilistiese metodes gebruik om die verwagte eindverbruiker en stelsel ontwerp se maand spits-faktore te bereken. Die probabilistiese metode het gebruik gemaak van ‘n Monte Carlo analise metode, waardeur die ware gemeette maand spits-faktor vir elke eindverbruiker vir elke grootmaatstelsel gebruik is as invoer tot diskrete waarskynlikheids funksies. Die Monte Carlo analise het 1 500 000 iterasies voltooi om waarskynlikheids-verdelings van elke maand spitsfaktor vir elke stelsel te bereken. Die deterministiese en probabilistiese resultate is vergelyk met die ware maand spits faktore soos bereken vanuit die bestaande waterverbruik data, asook teen huidige gepubliseerde ontwerp spits-faktore, wat in die bedryf gebruik word. Die studie het aangetoon dat die deterministiese metode te konserwatief is en dat dit die verwagte piekaanvraag van die stelsel sal oorskat en dus sal lei tot ‘n oorgrootte stelsel. Die probabilistiese metode het goeie resultate opgelewer wat goed vergelyk met die ware maand piek-faktore. Dit word gereken as ‘n toepaslike metode om die benodigde ontwerp spits-faktor van ‘n grootmaat-watervoorsiening stelsel te bepaal vir ‘n gekose voorsieningsbetroubaarheid. Die studie het ook aangedui dat die ontwerps piek-faktore voorgestel deur die huidige riglyne te laag is en dat dit tot die falings van ‘n stelsel sal lei. Die studie het ‘n moontlike verwantskap tussen die gemiddelde daaglikse wateraanvraag van die eindverbruiker en die verwagte maksimum maand spits faktor geïdentifiseer, nademaal die piek-faktore soos voorgestel deur die huidige riglyne nie beïnvloed word deur die eindverbruiker se gemiddelde verbruik nie.