京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第24952号 / 地環博第243号 / 新制||地環||48(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)教授 勝見 武, 准教授 高井 敦史, 教授 越後 信哉 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DFAM

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While the idea of critical break rate of water distribution pipeline (defined as the break rate after which it is no longer economical to continuously repair) has been accepted in the literature and among the practicing engineers, the formula to obtain the critical break rate has remained elusive. In this dissertation, an equation for identifying the threshold break rate of a pipe is developed. The threshold break rate equation gives a rule of thumb for pipe replacement decision. Input parameters to obtain the threshold break rate of a pipe are repair and replacement costs, interest rate, and the length of the pipe. In addition, a methodology that enables the use of threshold break rate with the failure intensity and hazard functions is developed. The methodology is drawn by considering the relationships of the definitions of the threshold break rate with intensity and hazard functions in the context of a repairable system's failure process modeling. As a result, the newly developed threshold break rate equation can be coupled with any appropriate intensity and hazard function to obtain economically optimal replacement time of a pipe. Also, practical usage of the threshold break rate is demonstrated with a number of numerical examples. Design aids in the form of charts and tables are provided. The threshold break rate can be easily obtained either graphically or with the aid of the tables. The methodology that links the threshold break rate and failure rate (intensity and hazard) functions is extended to accommodate stress multiplying environmental factors in the form of the proportional intensity and hazards model. The two models consist of an age dependent failure rate function and a covariate structure. They are applied to a case study area pipe system to obtain optimal replacement times for individual pipes in the system. As a result, important hazard characteristics of water distribution pipes are drawn, and implications on the optimal replacement analysis are discussed. A pipe break prediction model is also developed in this research. The model spans the space between the linear and exponential break trends. The model is applied to the case study area pipe system with various cost options. The results from this analysis are discussed in terms of practical implementation of the replacement strategies. / Ph. D.

Failure of pipes in water distribution systems is a common occurrence especially in large cities. The failure of a pipe results in: loss of water; property damage; interruption of service; decreased system performance; and the financial cost of restoring the failed pipe. The cost of replacement and rehabilitation in the United States is estimated at 23 plus billion dollars. It is virtually impossible to replace all vulnerable pipes at the same time. As a result, there is a need for methods that can help in progressive system rehabilitation and replacement subject to budgetary constraints. If delaying is considered a good strategy due to the time value of money then, the timing of preventive maintenance becomes a crucial element for system maintenance and operation. The central under pinning element in the decision process for scheduling preventive maintenance is the deteriorating nature of a pipe under a given surrounding. By planning to replace pipes before they fail, proper planning can be put in place for securing of finances and labor force needed to rehabilitate the pipes. With this approach, service interruptions are minimized as the loss of service time is limited to the time used in replacing the pipe. In this research, a mechanistic model for assessing the stage of deterioration of an underground pipe is developed. The developed model consists of three sub-models namely, the Pipe Load Model (PLM), the Pipe Deterioration Model (PDM), and the Pipe Break Model (PBM). The PLM simulates the loads and stresses exerted on a buried water main. These loads include the earth load, traffic load, internal pressure, expansive soil loads, thermal, and frost loads. The PDM simulates the deterioration of the pipe due to corrosion resulting from the physical characteristics of the pipe environment. The pipe deterioration effect is modeled in two stages. First, the thinning of the pipe wall is modeled using a corrosion model. Second, the localized pit growth is used to determine the residual strength of the pipe based on the fracture toughness and the initial design strength of the pipe. The PBM assesses the vulnerability of a pipe at any time in terms of a critical safety factor. The safety factor is defined as the ratio of residual strength to applied stress. For a conservative estimate the multiplier effect due to thermal and frost loads are considered. For a chosen analysis period, say 50 years, the pipes with safety factors less than the critical safety factor are selected and ordered by their rank. Aided by the prioritized list of failure prone pipes, utilities can organize a replacement schedule that minimizes cost over time. Additionally a physically based regression model for determining the optimal replacement time of pipe is also presented. A methodology for assessing the consequences of accelerated and delayed replacement is also provided. The methodologies developed in this dissertation will enable utilities to formulate future budgetary needs compatible with the intended level of service. An application of the model and results are included in the dissertation. / Ph. D.

A simulation-optimization methodology was used to assess monitoring strategies for a drinking water distribution network. Multiple simulation trials of contamination events were used to create input data for an integer optimization problem. A network model, based on the Blacksburg, VA water distribution system, was used as the basis for a case study of contaminant transport under conditions of uncertainty. The model was not calibrated due to the lack of reliable field data. Optimization of monitoring plans was performed within the context event based simulation trials. This precluded the design of monitoring plans that were directly compatible with requirements of water quality regulations. However, the results of the optimization did provide information that may be of use to the broader problem of compliance monitoring. Optimal plans were assessed in comparison with several alternative plans using a separate set of simulation trials. Optimization of monitoring plans derived from simulated source node contamination events was generally effective at choosing points that provided better detection of source node contamination than alternative plans based on random sampling or judgement sampling. Optimal monitoring plans derived from simulated random node contamination events were ineffective at detecting random node contamination. The results of optimization and the separate analysis of monitoring plan performance indicated that the number of simulation trials may have been inadequate to completely describe the stochastic behavior of the system. Additionally, comparison of these results with those obtained from a previous simulation study indicate that the results of any simulation of distribution system contamination may be very sensitive to the level of contaminant loading and the size and layout of the system. / Master of Science

A holistic procedure GLOBAL for the global optimization of water distribution systems is presented. The procedure identifies an optimal tree layout for the network and augments it with loop forming links to assure reliability. Thus, the chosen optimal layout in judiciously subjected to various flow configurations to find an optimal flow division among pipes for the least cost diameter selection. Because the problem is nonconvex, two global search schemes, MULITIST ART and ANNEALING, both within the framework of procedure GLOBAL, are employed to permit a local optimum seeking method to migrate among various local minima. A modified Linear Programming Gradient (LPG) procedure is judiciously employed as local optimizer. An example problem from the literature is solved using the proposed procedure. The optimal solution has a cost very near to the theoretical limit for this problem and is significantly smaller than the ones reported by other researchers. / Master of Science