In most of the urban cities of developing countries piped water supply is intermittent and they receive water on alternate days for about few hours. The Unaccounted For Water (UFW) in these cities is very high due to aged infrastructure, poor management and operation of the system. In the cities of developing countries, supplied water is not able to meet the demand and there is huge gap between supply and demand of water. To meet the water demand people are depending on other sources of water like groundwater, rain water harvesting, waste water treatment, desalination etc. Huge quantity of groundwater is extracted without any account for the quantity of water used. The main challenge for water authorities is to meet the consumer demands at varying loading conditions. However, the present execution of decisions in the operational management of WDS is through manual control. The manual control of valve throttling and control of pump speed, reduces the efficiency and operation of WDS. In such cases, system modeling coupled with automated control can play a significant role in the appropriate execution and operation of the system. In the past few decades, there has been a major development in the field of modeling and analysing water distribution systems. Most of the people in Indian mega cities are facing water problems as they are not able to receive safe reliable drinking water. In rapidly growing cities, the water resources management has been a major concern for the Government. There is always a need to optimize the available water resources when the rate of demand constantly beats the rate of replenishments. Mathematical modeling of WDS has become an indispensible tool since the ages to model any type of WDS. Development of mathematical models of WDS is necessary to analyse the system behavior for a wide range of operating conditions. Using models, problems can be anticipated in proposed or existing systems, and solutions can be evaluated before time, money, and materials are invested in a real-world project. In the present study, we have developed a model of WDS of a typical city like Bangalore, India and analysed them for several scenarios and operating conditions. Bangalore WDS is modeled using EPANET. Before a network model is used for analysis purpose, it must be ensured that the model is predicting the behavior of the system with reasonable accuracy. The process of matching the parameters of the developed model and the field observed data is known as calibration. All WDS require calibration for effective modeling and simulation of the system. Demand and roughness are the most uncertain parameters and they are adjusted repeatedly to get the required head at nodes and flow in the pipes. The calibration parameters usually include pipe roughness, valve settings, pipe diameter and demand. Pipe roughness, valve settings and pipe diameter are associated with the flow conditions and the demands relate to the boundary conditions. For Bangalore WDS, the values of roughness coefficient and demand are available; and the values of valve settings are not available. Hence, this value is estimated during calibration process. Dynamic Inversion (DI) nonlinear controller with Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) features (DI-PID) is used for calibrating WDS for valve settings on the basis of observed flow and roughness coefficient. From the obtained results it is observed that, controllers are capable of achieving the target flow to all the GLRs with acceptable difference between the flow meter readings and the simulated flow. After calibrating any real WDS to the field observed data, it will be useful for water authorities if the consumer demands are met up to certain extent. This can be achieved by using the concept of equitable distribution of water to different consumers. In the urban cities of developing countries, often large quantities of water are supplied to only a few consumers, leading to inequitable water supply. It is a well known fact that quantity of water supplied from the source is not distributed equitably among the consumers. Aged pipelines pump failures, improper management of water resources are some of the main reasons for it. Equitable water to different consumers can be provided by operating the system in an efficient manner. Most of the urban cities receive water from the source to intermediate reservoirs and from these reservoirs water is supplied to consumers. Therefore, to achieve equitable water supply, these two supply levels have to be controlled using different concepts/ techniques. The water requirement of each of the reservoirs has to be calculated, which may depend on the number of consumers and consumer category. Each reservoir should receive its share of water to satisfy its consumer demand and also there must be provision to accommodate shortages, if any. The calibrated model of Bangalore WDS is used to achieve equitable water supply quantity to different zones of Bangalore city. The city has large undulating terrain among different zones which leads to unequal distribution of water. Dynamic Inversion (DI) nonlinear controller with Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) features (DI-PID) is used for valve throttling to achieve the target flows to different zones/reservoirs of the city at different levels. Equitable water distribution to different reservoirs, when a part of the source fails to supply water is also discussed in this thesis. From the obtained results it is observed that, controllers were responding in all the cases in different levels of targets for such a huge network. When there is change in supply pattern to achieve the equitable supply of water to different zones, the hydraulics of the WDS will change. Therefore, it is necessary to understand whether the system is able to handle these changes. The concept of reliability can be used to analyse the performance of WDS for wide range of operating conditions. Reliability analysis of a WDS for both normal and likely to occur situations will give a better quality of service to its consumers. Calculating both hydraulic and mechanical reliability is important as the chances of occurrence of both the failure scenarios are equal in a WDS. In the present study, a methodology is presented to model the nodal, system and total reliability for water supply networks by considering the hydraulic and mechanical failure scenarios. These two reliability measures together give the total reliability of the system. Analysing a real and complex WDS for the probable chances of occurrence of the failure scenarios; and then to anlyse the total reliability of the system is not reported in the literature and this analysis is carried out in the present study for Bangalore city WDS. The hydraulics of the system for all the operating conditions is analysed using EPANET. Hydraulic reliability is calculated by varying the uncertain independent parameters (demand, roughness and source water) and mechanical reliability is calculated by assuming system component failures. The system is analysed for both the reliability scenarios by considering different chances of failure that may occur in a real WDS; and hence the total reliability is calculated by making different combinations of hydraulic and mechanical failure scenarios. Sensitivity analysis for all the zones is also carried out to understand the behavior of different demand points for large fluctuation in hydraulics of the system. From the study, it is observed that, Hydraulic reliability decreases as the demand variation increases. But, as the roughness variation increases, there is no much change in the nodal or system reliability. Consumer demand or reliability of the WDS can be increased by saving the water lost in the system. This can be achieved by tracking the water parcel from the source till the consumer end, which will give an idea about the performance of different stages and zones in achieving the target flows. Huge quantity of water is lost in WDS and hence it is necessary to account for the water lost at different levels, hence the system can be managed in a better way. In most of the intermittent water supply systems demand is controlled by supply side; there is also a need to understand the demand variation at the consumer end which in turn affects the supply. Matching this varied supply-demand gap at various levels is challenging task. To get a better control of such problem, water balance (WB) equations need to be derived at various levels. When we derive these WB equations it should be emphasized that UFW is one of the major component of this equation. Given this back ground of the complex problem, for a typical city like Bangalore, an attempt is made to derive WB equations at various levels. In the present study, stage-wise and zone-wise WB is analysed for different months based on the flow meter readings. The conceptual model developed is calibrated, validated and also the performance of the model is analysed by giving a chance of error in the flow measurement. Based on all the above observations, stage-wise and zone-wise water supply weights are also calculated. From the study it is found that, there is no much loss of water in all the four stages of supply. Water loss is minimal of about 3 % till water reaches from source to GLRs. Water is transferred between the stages during some days of the month, may be due to shortage of water or due to unexpected demand. Huge quantity of water is lost in the distribution main which is of about 40 to 45% for all the moths which is analysed. This type of model will be extremely useful for water supply managers to manage their resources more efficiently and this study is discussed in detail as a part of this thesis. As mentioned above, huge quantity of groundwater is used in urban cities and the quantity of water extracted is not accounted. In the present study, zone wise and sub zone-wise piped water and ground water used in different parts of the cities is analysed with the help of available data. From the study it is observed that, the quantity of piped water supply and UFW is consistent for the time period analysed and the quantity of water withdrawn from the borewells are varying considerably depending on the yield of the borewlls in different zones. The main components of urban water supply are piped water, ground water, rainfall and runoff generated, UFW, waste water produced and other water quantities which may be minute. In future, to manage the water resources properly, integrated water management is necessary in city scale which will give an idea about the total water produced and the water utilized at the consumer end. Therefore, integrated water management concept is carried out in Hebbal region, (a small part of Bangalore) using the available data. From the analysis we noticed that, domestic water supplied to North sub zones are better when comparing to East sub zones. This type of total water balance can be studied in other parts of Bangalore, to understand the behavior of different water components and to make better decisions. The developed model, analysis and operating conditions of this study can be applied to other similar cities like Bangalore. This type of study may be useful to water authorities for better control of the resources, or in making better decisions and these types of models will act as decision support systems.

[EN] One of the main challenges of drinking water utilities is to ensure high quality supply, in particular, in chemical and microbiological terms. However, biofilms invariably develop in all drinking water distribution systems (DWDSs), despite the presence of residual disinfectant. As a result, water utilities are not able to ensure total bacteriological control. Currently biofilms represent a real paradigm in water quality management for all DWDSs. Biofilms are complex communities of microorganisms bound by an extracellular polymer that provides them with structure, protection from toxics and helps retain food. Besides the health risk that biofilms involve, due to their role as a pathogen shelter, a number of additional problems associated with biofilm development in DWDSs can be identified. Among others, aesthetic deterioration of water, biocorrosion and disinfectant decay are universally recognized. A large amount of research has been conducted on this field since the earliest 80's. However, due to the complex environment and the community studied most of the studies have been developed under certain simplifications. We resort to this already done work and acquired knowledge on biofilm growth in DWDSs to change the common approaches of these studies. Our proposal is based on arduous preprocessing and posterior analysis by Machine Learning approaches. A multi-disciplinary procedure is undertaken, helping as a practical approach to develop a decision-making tool to help DWDS management to maintain, as much as possible, biofilm at the lowest level, and mitigating its negative effects on the service. A methodology to detect the more susceptible areas to biofilm development in DWDSs is proposed. Knowing the location of these hot-spots of the network, mitigation actions could be focused more specifically, thus saving resources and money. Also, prevention programs could be developed, acting before the consequences of biofilm are noticed by the consumers. In this way, the economic cost would be reduced and the service quality would improve, eventually increasing consumers' satisfaction. / [ES] Uno de los principales objetivos de las empresas encargadas de la gestión de los sistemas de distribución de agua potable (DWDSs, del inglés Drinking Water Distribution Systems) es asegurar una alta calidad del agua en su abastecimiento, tanto química como microbiológica. Sin embargo, la existencia de biofilms en todos ellos, a pesar de la presencia de desinfectante residual, hace que no se pueda asegurar un control bacteriológico total, por lo que, hoy en día, los biofilms representan un paradigma en la gestión de la calidad del agua en los DWDSs. Los biofilms son comunidades complejas de microorganismos recubiertas de un polímero extracelular que les da estructura y les ayuda a retener el alimento y a protegerse de agentes tóxicos. Además del riesgo sanitario que suponen por su papel como refugio de patógenos, existen muchos otros problemas asociados al desarrollo de biofilms en los DWDSs, como deterioro estético del agua, biocorrosión y consumo de desinfectante, entre otros. Una gran cantidad de investigaciones se han realizado en este campo desde los primeros años 80. Sin embargo, debido a la complejidad del entorno y la comunidad estudiada la mayoría de estos estudios se han llevado a cabo bajo ciertas simplificaciones. En nuestro caso, recurrimos a estos trabajos ya realizados y al conocimiento adquirido sobre el desarrollo del biofilm en los DWDSs para cambiar el enfoque en el que normalmente se enmarcan estos estudios. Nuestra propuesta se basa en un intenso pre-proceso y posterior análisis con técnicas de aprendizaje automático. Se implementa un proceso multidisciplinar que ayuda a la realización de un enfoque práctico para el desarrollo de una herramienta de ayuda a la toma de decisiones que ayude a la gestión de los DWDSs, manteniendo, en lo posible, el biofilm en los niveles más bajos, y mitigando sus efectos negativos sobre el servicio de agua. Se propone una metodología para detectar las áreas más susceptibles al desarrollo del biofilm en los DWDSs. Conocer la ubicación de estos puntos calientes de biofilm en la red permitiría llevar a cabo acciones de mitigación de manera localizada, ahorrando recursos y dinero, y asimismo, podrían desarrollarse programas de prevención, actuando antes de que las consecuencias derivadas del desarrollo de biofilm sean percibidas por los consumidores. De esta manera, el coste económico se vería reducido y la calidad del servicio mejoraría, aumentando, finalmente, la satisfacción de los usuarios. / [CAT] Un dels principals reptes dels serveis d'aigua potable és garantir el subministrament d'alta qualitat, en particular, en termes químics i microbiològics. No obstant això, els biofilms desenvolupen invariablement en tots els sistemes de distribució d'aigua potable (DWDSs, de l'anglès, Drinking Water Distribution Systems), tot i la presència de desinfectant residual. Com a resultat, les empreses d'aigua no són capaces de garantir un control bacteriològic total. Actualment el biofilms representen un veritable paradigma en la gestió de la qualitat de l'aigua per a tots les DWDSs. Els biofilms són comunitats complexes de microorganismes vinculats per un polímer extracel·lular que els proporciona estructura, protecció contra els tòxics i ajuda a retenir els aliments. A més del risc de salut que impliquen els biofilms, com a causa del seu paper com a refugi de patògens, una sèrie de problemes addicionals associats amb el desenvolupament del biofilm en els DWDSs pot ser identificat. Entre altres, deteriorament estètic d'aigua, biocorrosión i decadència de desinfectant són universalment reconeguts. Una gran quantitat d'investigació s'ha realitzat en aquest camp des dels primers anys de la dècada del 80. No obstant això, a causa de la complexitat de l'entorn i la comunitat estudiada, la major part dels estudis s'han desenvolupat sota certes simplificacions. Recorrem a aquest treball ja realitzat i a aquest coneixement adquirit en el creixement de biofilms en els DWDSs per canviar el punt de vista clàssic del biofilm en estudis en els DWDSs. La nostra proposta es basa en l'ardu processament previ i posterior anàlisi mitjançant enfocaments d'aprenentatge automàtic. Es va dur a terme un procediment multidisciplinari, ajudant com un enfocament pràctic per desenvolupar una eina de presa de decisions per ajudar a la gestió dels DWDS a mantenir, en la mesura possible, els biofilm en els nivells més baixos, i la mitigació dels seus efectes negatius sobre el servei. Es proposa una metodologia per detectar les àrees més susceptibles al desenvolupament de biofilms en els DWDSs. En conèixer la ubicació d'aquests punts calents de la xarxa, les accions de mitigació podrien centrar-se més específicament, estalviant recursos i diners. A més, els programes de prevenció es podrien desenvolupar, actuant abans que les conseqüències del biofilm es noten pels consumidors. D'aquesta manera, el cost econòmic seria reduït i la qualitat del servei podria millorar, finalment augmentant la satisfacció dels consumidors. / Ramos Martínez, E. (2016). Assessing biofilm development in drinking water distribution systems by Machine Learning methods [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/63257 / TESIS

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第22841号 / 工博第4781号 / 新制||工||1748(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻 / (主査)教授 伊藤 禎彦, 教授 米田 稔, 准教授 越後 信哉 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DGAM

The expansive nature of water distribution system makes them susceptible to threats such as natural disasters and man-made destructions. Vulnerability assessment research efforts have increased since the passing of “Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act” in 2002 to harden WDS. This study aimed to develop a method that locates critical nodes without hydraulic analysis of every failure scenario, applicable for any size WDS, incorporates critical infrastructure, and capable of verifying method accuracy. The Flow Distribution method is the application of the gravity model, typically used to predict traffic flows in transportation engineering, to a distribution system. Flow distribution predicts the amount of demand and population that would be affected if any node in the system were disabled by solving for the distribution of each node’s outflow. Flow Distribution is applied to the hypothetical city, Anytown, USA using the computer simulation program WaterCAD to model two different disaster scenarios. Results were verified by analyzing sixteen failure scenarios (one for each node) to measure the actual demand and population effect, which was then compared to the nodes predicted by Flow Distribution. Flow Distribution predicted the critical nodes with 70% accuracy and can still be improved with future work.

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In this study, the bacterial growth dynamics of 14 pilot drinking water distribution systems were studied in order to observe water quality changes due to corrosion inhibitor addition. Empirical models were developed to quantity the effect of inhibitor type and dose on bacterial growth (biofilm and bulk water). Water and pipe coupon samples were taken and examined during the experiments. The coupons were exposed to drinking water at approximately 20°C for at least 5 weeks to allow the formation of a measurable quasi- steady-state biofilm. Bulk water samples were taken every week. In this study, two simple but practical empirical models were created. Sensitivity analysis for the bulk HPC model (for all 14 of the PDSs) showed that maintaining a chloramine residual at 2.6 mg/L instead of 1.1 mg/L would decrease bulk HPC by anywhere from 0.5 to 0.9 log, which was greater than the increase in bulk HPC from inhibitor addition at 0.31 to 0.42 log for Si and P based inhibitors respectively. This means that maintaining higher residual levels can counteract the relatively modest increases due to inhibitors. BF HPC was affected by pipe material, effluent residual and temperature in addition to a small increase due to inhibitor addition. Biofilm density was most affected by material type, with polyvinyl chloride (PVC) biofilm density consistently much lower than other materials (0.66, 0.92, and 1.22 log lower than lined cast iron (LCI), unlined cast iron (UCI), and galvanized steel (G), respectively). Temperature had a significant effect on both biofilm and bulk HPC levels but it is not practical to alter temperature for public drinking water distribution systems so temperature is not a management tool like residual. This study evaluated the effects of four different corrosion inhibitors (i.e. based on either phosphate or silica) on drinking water distribution system biofilms and bulk water HPC levels. Four different pipe materials were used in the pilot scale experiments, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), lined cast iron (LCI), unlined cast iron (UCI), and galvanized steel (G). Three kinds of phosphate based and one silica based corrosion inhibitors were added at concentrations typically applied in a drinking water distribution system for corrosion control. The data showed that there was a statistically significant increase of 0.34 log in biofilm bacterial densities (measured as HPC) with the addition of any of the phosphate based inhibitors (ortho-phosphorus, blended ortho-poly-phosphate, and zinc ortho-phosphate). A silica based inhibitor resulted in an increase of 0.36 log. The biological data also showed that there was a statistically significant increase in bulk water bacterial densities (measured as heterotrophic plates count, HPC) with the addition of any of the four inhibitors. For bulk HPC this increase was relatively small, being 15.4% (0.42 log) when using phosphate based inhibitors, and 11.0% (0.31 log) for the silica based inhibitor. Experiments with PDS influent spiked with phosphate salts, phosphate based inhibitors, and the silicate inhibitor showed that the growth response of P17 and NOx in the AOC test was increased by addition of these inorganic compounds. For this source water and the PDSs there was more than one limiting nutrient. In addition to organic compounds phosphorus was identified as a nutrient stimulating growth, and there was also an unidentified nutrient in the silica based inhibitor. However since the percentage increases due to inhibitors were no greater than 15% it is unlikely that this change would be significant for the bulk water microbial quality. In addition it was shown that increasing the chloramines residual could offset any additional growth and that the inhibitors could help compliance with the lead and copper rule. However corrosion inhibitors might result in an increase in monitoring and maintenance requirements, particularly in dead ends, reaches with long HRTs, and possibly storage facilities. In addition it is unknown what the effect of corrosion inhibitors are on the growth of coliform bacteria and opportunistic pathogens relative to ordinary heterotrophs. A method was developed to monitor precision for heterotrophic plate count (HPC) using both blind duplicates and lab replicates as part of a project looking at pilot drinking water distribution systems. Precision control charts were used to monitor for changes in assay variability with time just as they are used for chemical assays. In adapting these control charts for the HPC assay, it was determined that only plate counts ≥ 30 cfu per plate could be used for Quality Assurance (QA) purposes. In addition, four dilutions were used for all known Quality Control (QC) samples to insure counts usable for QC purposes would be obtained. As a result there was a 50% increase in the required labor for a given number of samples when blind duplicates and lab replicates were run in parallel with the samples. For bulk water HPCs the distributions of the duplicate and replicate data were found to be significantly different and separate control charts were used. A probability based analysis for setting up the warning limit (WL) and control limit (CL) was compared with the method following National Institute of Standard and Technology (NIST) guidelines.

ABSTRACT The network of pipes in potable water distribution systems (WDS) are comprised of thousands of pipes made of various materials including PVC, concrete, cast iron, and steel, among several others. The pipes are subjected to internal and external conditions that lead to their failure. Stress conditions include, but are not limited to internal pressures, traffic loading, and corrosion. The deterioration of a pipe decreases its mechanical strength which results in an increase of its probability of failure. Failures lead to loss of service which translates to loss of money due to the cost of repairs and buildup of traffic caused by street closures. The focus of this study is the pipe network underneath cities that make it possible for communities to have access to potable water. The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the physical conditions of each pipe in a water distribution system in order to assess its probability of failure and ultimately calculate the risk associated with each pipe in the case that it were to fail. This model focuses only on the pipes of the WDS and does not take into consideration fittings, pumps, and other network components. This model assesses pipe age, material, diameter, internal pressure, traffic loading (industrial or residential), and length to determine the probability of failure. It then utilizes several economic factors such as material cost, customer criticality, demand, traffic impact, and land use to calculate the risk associated with each pipe. The risk associated with each pipe can then be used as a ranking system to identify the most vulnerable pipes, those with the highest economic impact upon failure. Identifying the pipes with the highest risk allows municipalities to better allocate funds for maintenance or replacement of pipes. It highlights the most critical pipes within a network of thousands. In order to check its functionality, this model applied to the WDS of the City of Arroyo Grande, California. Information on the City’s distribution system was analyzed using Bentley’s WaterCAD, ESRI’s ArcGIS, MathWorks’ MATLAB and Microsoft’s Excel software to perform the analysis. The risk analysis model provided 3 pipes within the distribution system made of cast iron as having a high probability of failure and a critical level of risk. A critical level of risk is defined as falling within the highest range of risk within this study. Considering that only 3 pipe segments were highlighted as having a Critical Risk, 4 as High Risk, and 6 as Medium Risk, in a system of 3572 pipes indicates that the model functions properly. This model was compared to a method developed by Jan C. Devera in his thesis “Risk Assessment Model for Pipe Rehabilitation and Replacement in a Water Distribution System” (2013), which was also applied to the City of Arroyo Grande’s distribution system. Results provided by this analysis prove that both models are functional due to similar results. The current study utilizes the concepts of random variables and conditional assessment to run various Monte Carlo Simulations as the means of calculating the probability of failure of a pipe. Mr. Devera’s model utilizes simplistic approach that does not involve intensive calculations, but results for both models turned out to be similar when looking at the Arroyo Grande distribution system. This risk assessment model demonstrates that a risk assessment model can provide a framework to prioritize pipes based on risk. The approach can help create a schedule for a city’s pipe distribution network for maintenance and repair. It is important to note that it is not a predictive model. This study may be employed to better allocate funds for the rehabilitation and replacement of a city’s existing pipe network to promote optimal operating conditions and service to the public.

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