O presente estudo avalia a inclusão de indicadores hidrológicos em modelos tradicionais de gestão de povoamentos comerciais de eucalipto. As restrições adicionadas referem-se a uma redução máxima da vazão em cada ano do período de análise de 300, 200 e 100mm.ano-1. Os valores de vazão foram estimados utilizando um modelo simplificado de balanço hídrico que considera as perdas por interceptação e por evapotranspiração dependentes de fatores ambientais. Funções foram ajustadas a fim de descrever a variação das características da vegetação ao longo de seu crescimento. A área de estudo corresponde a uma microbacia de 0,97km² localizada no município de Eldorado do Sul/RS. Foram consideradas 1296 alternativas de regime de manejo para a área, variando a espécie, densidade de plantio, índice de solo, idades de corte e sistema de condução. O índice de área foliar apresentou-se como um importante descritor do dossel florestal, de grande influência sobre o impacto hidrológico das plantações florestais. Os resultados dos modelos de programação linear utilizados demonstraram que quanto maior a restrição hidrológica imposta, mais se altera o plano de manejo da área e o valor do projeto obtido. A utilização do modelo com restrição de 200mm.ano-1, comparado ao modelo sem restrição hidrológica, ocasionou um aumento médio na vazão anual de 22% e uma redução no valor esperado de terra de 15%. Para a região de estudo, a utilização de regimes de manejo com diferentes idades e a definição do material genético foram as variáveis de manejo mais afetadas pela imposição das restrições hidrológicas. A consideração da microbacia como unidade de manejo e a adição das restrições hidrológicas aos modelos econômicos mostraram-se ferramentas úteis à integração do planejamento florestal e de recursos hídricos. / This study evaluates the inclusion of hydrological goals in the traditional planning models for commercial stands of eucalyptus. The constraints added to the linear programming model relate to maintaining a minimum flow of 300, 200 and 100mm.ano-1 in each year of the analysis. The flow values were estimated using a simplified water balance model that considers the interception loss and evapotranspiration dependent on environmental factors. Functions were fitted to describe the variation of the vegetation parameters along its growth. The study area represents a watershed of 0,97km² located in Eldorado do Sul (RS, Brazil). It were considered 1296 alternative forest regimes for the area, ranging species, planting density, site index, cutting age and the conduction system. The leaf area index was presented as an important descriptor of the forest canopy with great influence on the hydrological impact of forest plantations. The results showed that the greater the restriction imposed hydrology, the more you change the management plan for the area and the project value obtained. Using the model with constraint 200mm.ano-1, compared to the not hydrologically constrained model, causes an increase in average annual flow of 22% and a reduction of 15% in the expected value of the land. For the study area, the definition of the genetic material was the variable that most influenced the results. The consideration of watershed as the management unit and the addition of hydrological constraints in economic models proved to be useful tools in planning the integration of forestry and water resources.

abstract: The North American Monsoon (NAM) is characterized by high inter- and intra-seasonal variability, and potential climate change effects have been forecasted to increase this variability. The potential effects of climate change to the hydrology of the southwestern U.S. is of interest as they could have consequences to water resources, floods, and land management. I applied a distributed watershed model, the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), to the Beaver Creek basin in Arizona. This sub-basin of the Verde River is representative of the regional topography, land cover, and soils distribution. As such, it can serve to illustrate the utility of distributed models for change assessment studies. Model calibration was performed utilizing radar-based NEXRAD data, and comparisons were done to two additional sources of precipitation data: ground-based stations and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Comparisons focus on the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and stream discharge. Utilizing the calibrated model, I applied scenarios from the HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) which was dynamically downscaled by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to refine the representation of Arizona's regional climate. Two time periods were examined, a historical 1990-2000 and a future 2031-2040, to evaluate the hydrologic consequence in the form of differences and similarities between the decadal averages for temperature, precipitation, stream discharge and evapotranspiration. Results indicate an increase in mean air temperature over the basin by 1.2 ºC. The average decadal precipitation amounts increased between the two time periods by 2.4 times that of the historical period and had an increase in variability that was 3 times the historical period. For the future period, modeled streamflow discharge in the summer increased by a factor of 3. There was no significant change in the average evapotranspiration (ET). Overall trends of increase precipitation and variability for future climate scenarios have a more significant effect on the hydrologic response than temperature increases in the system during NAM in this study basin. The results from this study suggest that water management in the Beaver Creek will need to adapt to higher summer streamflow amounts. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Civil and Environmental Engineering 2012

abstract: This research presents an analysis of the main institutions and economic incentives that drive farmers behaviors on water use in the Chancay-Lambayeque basin, located in Lambayeque (Peru), a semi arid area of great agricultural importance. I focus my research on identifying the underlying causes of non-collaborative behaviors in regard to water appropriation and infrastructure provisioning decision that generates violent conflicts between users. Since there is not an agreed and concrete criteria to assess "sustainability" I used economic efficiency as my evaluative criteria because, even though this is not a sufficient condition to achieve sustainability it is a necessary one, and thus achieving economic efficiency is moving towards sustainable outcomes. Water management in the basin is far from being economic efficient which means that there is some room for improving social welfare. Previous studies of the region have successfully described the symptoms of this problem; however, they did not focus their study on identifying the causes of the problem. In this study, I describe and analyze how different rules and norms (institutions) define farmers behaviors related to water use. For this, I use the Institutional Analysis and Development framework and a dynamic game theory model to analyze how biophysical attributes, community attributes and rules of the system combined with other factors, can affect farmers actions in regard to water use and affect the sustainability of water resources. Results show that water rights are the factor that is fundamental to the problem. Then, I present an outline for policy recommendation, which includes a revision of water rights and related rules and policies that could increase the social benefits with the use of compensation mechanisms to reach economic efficiency. Results also show that commonly proposed solutions, as switch to less water intensive and more added value crops, improvement in the agronomic and entrepreneurial knowledge, or increases in water tariffs, can mitigate or exacerbate the loss of benefits that come from the poor incentives in the system; but they do not change the nature of the outcome. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.A. Sustainability 2013

abstract: The history of outdoor water use in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area has given rise to a general landscape aesthetic and pattern of residential irrigation that seem in discord with the natural desert environment. While xeric landscaping that incorporates native desert ecology has potential for reducing urban irrigation demand, there are societal and environmental factors that make mesic landscaping, including shade trees and grass lawns, a common choice for residential yards. In either case, there is potential for water savings through irrigation schedules based on fluxes affecting soil moisture in the active plant rooting zone. In this thesis, a point-scale model of soil moisture dynamics was applied to two urban sites in the Phoenix area: one with xeric landscaping, and one with mesic. The model was calibrated to observed soil moisture data from irrigated and non-irrigated sensors, with local daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration records as model forcing. Simulations were then conducted to investigate effects of irrigation scheduling, plant stress parameters, and precipitation variability on soil moisture dynamics, water balance partitioning, and plant water stress. Results indicated a substantial difference in soil water storage capacity at the two sites, which affected sensitivity to irrigation scenarios. Seasonal variation was critical in avoiding unproductive water losses at the xeric site, and allowed for small water savings at the mesic site by maintaining mild levels of plant stress. The model was also used to determine minimum annual irrigation required to achieve specified levels of plant stress at each site using long-term meteorological records. While the xeric site showed greater potential for water savings, a bimodal schedule consisting of low winter and summer irrigation was identified as a means to conserve water at both sites, with moderate levels of plant water stress. For lower stress levels, potential water savings were found by fixing irrigation depth and seasonally varying the irrigation interval, consistent with municipal recommendations in the Phoenix metropolitan area. These results provide a deeper understanding of the ecohydrologic differences between the two types of landscape treatments, and can assist water and landscape managers in identifying opportunities for water savings in desert urban areas. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Civil and Environmental Engineering 2013

abstract: The act of moving water across basins is a recent phenomenon in Arizona water policy. This thesis creates a narrative arc for understanding the long-term issues that set precedents for interbasin water transportation and the immediate causes--namely the passage of the seminal Groundwater Management Act (GMA) in 1980--that motivated Scottsdale, Mesa, and Phoenix to acquire rural farmlands in the mid-1980s with the intent of transporting the underlying groundwater back to their respective service areas in the immediate future. Residents of rural areas were active participants in not only the sales of these farmlands, but also in how municipalities would economically develop these properties in the years to come. Their role made these municipal "water farm" purchases function as exchanges. Fears about the impact of these properties and the water transportation they anticipated on communities-of-origin; the limited nature of economic, fiscal, and hydrologic data at the time; and the rise of private water speculators turned water farms into a major political controversy. The six years it took the legislature to wrestle with the problem at the heart this issue--the value of water to rural communities--were among its most tumultuous. The loss of key lawmakers involved in GMA negotiations, the impeachment of Governor Evan Mecham, and a bribery scandal called AZScam collectively sidetracked negotiations. Even more critical was the absence of a mutual recognition that these water farms posed a problem and the external pressure that had forced all parties involved in earlier groundwater-related negotiations to craft compromise. After cities and speculators failed to force a bill favorable to their interests in 1989, a re-alignment among blocs occurred: cities joined with rural interests to craft legislation that grandfathered in existing urban water farms and limited future water farms to several basins. In exchange, rural interests supported a bill to create a Phoenix-area groundwater replenishment district that enabled cooperative management of water supplies. These two bills, which were jointly signed into law in June 1991, tentatively resolved the water farm issue. The creation of a groundwater replenishment district that has subsidized growth in Maricopa, Pinal, and Pima Counties, the creation water bank to store unused Central Arizona Project water for times of drought, and a host of water conservation measures and water leases enabled by the passage of several tribal water rights settlements have set favorable conditions such that Scottsdale, Mesa, and Phoenix never had any reason to transport any water from their water farms. The legacy of these properties then is that they were the product of the intense urgency and uncertainty in urban planning premised on assumptions of growing populations and complementary, inelastic demand. But even as per capita water consumption has declined throughout the Phoenix-area, continued growth has increased demand, beyond the capacity of available supplies so that there will likely be a new push for rural water farms in the foreseeable future. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.A. History 2013

abstract: Transformational sustainability science demands that stakeholders and researchers consider the needs and values of future generations in pursuit of solutions to sustainability problems. This dissertation research focuses on the real-world problem of unsustainable water governance in the Phoenix region of Central Arizona. A sustainability transition is the local water system is necessary to overcome sustainability challenges and scenarios can be used to explore plausible and desirable futures to inform a transition, but this requires some methodological refinements. This dissertation refines scenario methodology to generate water governance scenarios for metropolitan Phoenix that: (i) feature enhanced stakeholder participation; (ii) incorporate normative values and preferences; (iii) focus on governance actors and their activities; and (iv) meet an expanded set of quality criteria. The first study in the dissertation analyzes and evaluates participatory climate change scenarios to provide recommendations for the construction and use of scenarios that advance climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. The second study proposes and tests a set of plausibility indications to substantiate or evaluate claims that scenarios and future projections could become reality, helping to establish the legitimacy of radically different or transformative scenarios among an extended peer community. The case study of water governance begins with the third study, which includes a current state analysis and sustainability appraisal of the Phoenix-area water system. This is followed by a fourth study which surveys Phoenix-area water decision-makers to better understand water-related preferences for use in scenario construction. The fifth and final study applies a multi-method approach to construct future scenarios of water governance in metropolitan Phoenix in 2030 using stakeholder preferences, among other normative frames, and testing systemic impacts with WaterSim 5.0, a dynamic simulation model of water in the region. The scenarios are boundary objects around which stakeholders can weigh tradeoffs, set priorities and reflect on impacts of water-related activities, broadening policy dialogues around water governance in central Arizona. Together the five studies advance transformational sustainability research by refining methods to engage stakeholders in crafting futures that define how individuals and institutions should operate in transformed and sustainable systems. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Sustainability 2014

abstract: As urban populations grow, water managers are becoming increasingly concerned about water scarcity. Water managers once relied on developing new sources of water supply to manage scarcity but economically feasible sources of unclaimed water are now rare, leading to an increased interest in demand side management. Water managers in Las Vegas, Nevada have developed innovative demand side management strategies due to the cities rapid urbanization and limited water supply. Three questions are addressed. First, in the developed areas of the Las Vegas Valley Water District service areas, how did vegetation area change? To quantify changes in vegetation area, the Matched Filter Vegetation Index (MFVI) is developed from Mixture Tuned Match Filtering estimates of vegetation area calibrated against vegetation area estimates from high-resolution aerial photography. In the established city core, there was a small but significant decline in vegetation area. Second, how much of the observed decline in per capita consumption can be explained by Las Vegas land cover and physical infrastructure change that resulted from extensive new construction and new use of water conserving technology, and how much can be attributed to water conservation policy choices? A regression analysis is performed, followed by an analysis of three counter-factual scenarios to decompose reductions in household water into its constituent parts. The largest citywide drivers of change in water consumption were increased water efficiency associated with new construction and rapid population growth. In the established urban core, the most significant driver was declining vegetation area. Third, water savings generated by a conservation program that provides incentives for homeowners to convert grass into desert landscaping are estimated. In the city core, 82 gallons of water are saved in June for each square meter of landscape converted in the first year after conversion, but the savings attenuate to 33 gallons per meter converted as the landscape ages. Voluntary landscape conversion programs can generate substantial water savings. The most significant result is that the most effective way to ensure long term, sustainable reductions in water consumption in a growing city without changing water prices is to support the construction of water efficient infrastructure. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Sustainability 2014

nÃo hà / As peculiaridades de cada paÃs levam à utilizaÃÃo de mecanismos variados de alocaÃÃo de recursos hÃdricos, nÃo havendo uma regra geral para a resoluÃÃo do problema de escassez de Ãgua. O conhecimento dos modelos experimentados internacionalmente, com a identificaÃÃo de suas respectivas vantagens e desvantagens, sÃo de grande utilidade. O objetivo principal da gestÃo dos recursos hÃdricos à satisfazer a demanda, considerando as possibilidades e limitaÃÃes da oferta de Ãgua. Entretanto, para isso, à necessÃrio o conhecimento de todos os aspectos hidrolÃgicos, climatolÃgicos e fÃsicos da regiÃo para realizar um planejamento adequado de oferta hÃdrica, alÃm do conhecimento da populaÃÃo e dos mÃltiplos interesses, para um bom dimensionamento da demanda. Entretanto, quando o sistema hÃdrico à alimentado por influxos espacial e temporalmente variÃveis, que à o que ocorre em regiÃes semiÃridas, a escolha de um modelo eficaz de gestÃo dos recursos hÃdricos torna-se ainda mais complexa, devido Ãs incertezas presentes na avaliaÃÃo dos futuros nÃveis de Ãgua. Nestes casos, as incertezas tÃm um importante papel na gestÃo dos recursos hÃdricos. Em busca de um estudo mais profundo da gestÃo dos recursos hÃdricos nessas regiÃes de alta variabilidade climÃtica, foram tomados como anÃlise os modelos aplicados no Nordeste Brasileiro e na AustrÃlia. O presente trabalho apresenta a semelhanÃa nas caracterÃsticas do clima dessas regiÃes, a semelhanÃa nos problemas enfrentados por cada uma delas e, finalmente, traÃa um paralelo, atravÃs da anÃlise e comparaÃÃo dos diferentes mÃtodos de gestÃo dos recursos hÃdricos disponÃveis. / The peculiarities of each country lead to the use of various mechanisms of water allocation. There is no general rule for solving the problem of water scarcity. Understanding the models experienced internationally, identifying their respective advantages and disadvantages are very useful. The main objective of water management is to attend the demand, considering the possibilities and limitations of water supply. However, for this, it is necessary to know all hydrological, climatological and physical aspects of the region to conduct a proper planning of water supply, beyond the knowledge of the population and the multiple interests, to a good demand sizing. However, when the water system is supplied by spatial and temporal variability of inflows, as in semiarid regions, the choice of an effective model for water management becomes more complex, due to the uncertainties presented in evaluating future water levels. In these cases, uncertainties have an important role in water resources management. In the matter of a deep study of water resources management in these regions of high climate variability, models applied in Northeast Brazil and Australia were used as analysis. This paper presents the similarity of climate aspects, the similar problems faced by each region, and finally draws a parallel comparing different methods of available water management.

As discussÃes em torno do uso da Ãgua bem como, a relaÃÃo sociedade-natureza tem se tornado um vetor de estudos nas duas Ãltimas dÃcadas que tem como objetivo aprofundar as discussÃes sobre a sustentabilidade do planeta e minimizar problemas de escassez enfrentados pelo setor produtivo e pelas populaÃÃes, colocando esta discussÃo no campo polÃtico protagonizado pelo poder pÃblico, pelos usuÃrios e pelas organizaÃÃes da sociedade civil na administraÃÃo das Ãguas nas bacias hidrogrÃficas. Discutir o uso e estabelecer arranjos institucionais que propiciem uma distribuiÃÃo mais equitativa entre os usuÃrios e planejando o uso atual e futuro evitando a escassez e ainda minimizando os conflitos decorrentes desta concorrÃncia à fim da alocaÃÃo de Ãgua. O Brasil mesmo possuindo a maior bacia hidrogrÃfica do mundo (o rio Amazonas) e ter um dos maiores potenciais hÃdricos mundiais (14% de toda Ãgua doce do mundo), tambÃm sofre com a escassez, sobretudo, no semiÃrido nordestino, que està contido na segunda regiÃo mais populosa do paÃs e possui a menor quantidade de Ãgua doce disponÃvel, escassez que à agravada pelas caracterÃsticas fÃsico-climÃticas e pelo mau uso de seus recursos hÃdricos. O trabalho aqui apresentado tem como objetivo principal desenvolver uma discussÃo da gestÃo das Ãguas no tocante a sua alocaÃÃo no semiÃrido brasileiro, tendo como foco principal os arranjos legais e institucionais desenvolvidos em trÃs Estados nordestinos: CearÃ, ParaÃba e Rio Grande do Norte e entendendo que o aparecimento desta modalidade de planejamento ambiental na regiÃo em meados dos anos 90 propiciou o desenvolvimento da gestÃo compartilhada e participativa da Ãgua. / The discussions around the use of water as well as the society - nature relationship has become a vector of studies over the past two decades that aims to deepen discussions on the sustainability of the planet and minimize shortage problems faced by the pr oductive sector and the populations, putting this thread in politics played by public authorities, by users and by civil society organizations in the management of water in watersheds. Discuss the use and establish institutional arrangements that provide a more equitable distribution among users and planning current and future use and avoiding shortages still minimizing conflicts arising from this competition is the end of the water allocation. Brazil itself has the largest watershed in the world ( Amazon as‟ river ) and have one of the largest global water potential (14 % of all fresh water in the world), also suffers from a shortage, especially in semiarid northeast, which is contained in second most populated region in the country and has the least amount of fresh water available, that shortage is exacerbated by physical and climatic characteristics and misuse of water resources. The work presented here aims to develop a discussion of water management regarding its allocation in the Brazilian semiarid region, focusing primarily on the legal and institutional arrangements developed in three northeastern states: CearÃ, ParaÃba and Rio Grande do Norte and understanding that the appearance of this type of environmental planning in the region in the mid - '90s led to the development of shared and participatory water management.

O presente estudo avalia a inclusão de indicadores hidrológicos em modelos tradicionais de gestão de povoamentos comerciais de eucalipto. As restrições adicionadas referem-se a uma redução máxima da vazão em cada ano do período de análise de 300, 200 e 100mm.ano-1. Os valores de vazão foram estimados utilizando um modelo simplificado de balanço hídrico que considera as perdas por interceptação e por evapotranspiração dependentes de fatores ambientais. Funções foram ajustadas a fim de descrever a variação das características da vegetação ao longo de seu crescimento. A área de estudo corresponde a uma microbacia de 0,97km² localizada no município de Eldorado do Sul/RS. Foram consideradas 1296 alternativas de regime de manejo para a área, variando a espécie, densidade de plantio, índice de solo, idades de corte e sistema de condução. O índice de área foliar apresentou-se como um importante descritor do dossel florestal, de grande influência sobre o impacto hidrológico das plantações florestais. Os resultados dos modelos de programação linear utilizados demonstraram que quanto maior a restrição hidrológica imposta, mais se altera o plano de manejo da área e o valor do projeto obtido. A utilização do modelo com restrição de 200mm.ano-1, comparado ao modelo sem restrição hidrológica, ocasionou um aumento médio na vazão anual de 22% e uma redução no valor esperado de terra de 15%. Para a região de estudo, a utilização de regimes de manejo com diferentes idades e a definição do material genético foram as variáveis de manejo mais afetadas pela imposição das restrições hidrológicas. A consideração da microbacia como unidade de manejo e a adição das restrições hidrológicas aos modelos econômicos mostraram-se ferramentas úteis à integração do planejamento florestal e de recursos hídricos. / This study evaluates the inclusion of hydrological goals in the traditional planning models for commercial stands of eucalyptus. The constraints added to the linear programming model relate to maintaining a minimum flow of 300, 200 and 100mm.ano-1 in each year of the analysis. The flow values were estimated using a simplified water balance model that considers the interception loss and evapotranspiration dependent on environmental factors. Functions were fitted to describe the variation of the vegetation parameters along its growth. The study area represents a watershed of 0,97km² located in Eldorado do Sul (RS, Brazil). It were considered 1296 alternative forest regimes for the area, ranging species, planting density, site index, cutting age and the conduction system. The leaf area index was presented as an important descriptor of the forest canopy with great influence on the hydrological impact of forest plantations. The results showed that the greater the restriction imposed hydrology, the more you change the management plan for the area and the project value obtained. Using the model with constraint 200mm.ano-1, compared to the not hydrologically constrained model, causes an increase in average annual flow of 22% and a reduction of 15% in the expected value of the land. For the study area, the definition of the genetic material was the variable that most influenced the results. The consideration of watershed as the management unit and the addition of hydrological constraints in economic models proved to be useful tools in planning the integration of forestry and water resources.