Interactions between the transport market and other distorted markets, such as the labor market, can have a large impact on the overall welfare effect of a road pricing policy or a congestion charge. Many road pricing studies therefore try to incorporate effects from other distorted markets in the analysis. A difficulty when assessing the welfare effect of a future transport policy is also that many factors and parameters needed for the analysis is uncertain. This thesis contains three papers all studying different methodological approaches to analyzing the welfare effects of transport policies. The first two papers analyze the welfare effect of congestion pricing in distorted economies. The main contribution of the first paper is to analyze how the welfare effect of a congestion charge in a distorted economy depends on what assumptions we make regarding the tax system in the initial no-toll situation. A critical assumption in many cost-benefit analyses of congestion charges is that the whole population has a single value of time. The second paper studies the effect of a congestion charge in a population of commuters with a continuously distributed value of time. The main contribution of the paper, compared to previous literature, is that it studies the welfare effect and distributional impact of a congestion charge in a population with endogenous labor supply and heterogeneous value of time where mode-choice self-selection plays an important role. The third paper studies the climate benefit of an investment in high speed rail by calculating the magnitude of annual traffic emission reduction required to compensate for the annualized embedded emissions from the construction of the line. To account for uncertainties in underlying assumptions, a Monte Carlo simulation framework is used in the analysis. The paper finds that to be able to balance the annualized emissions from the construction, traffic volumes of more than 10 million annual one-way trips are usually required, and most of the traffic diverted from other transport modes must come from aviation. / QC 20110812

The first part of this thesis relies on stated and revealed preference survey results across a sample of U.S. households to first ascertain vehicle acquisition, disposal, and use patterns, and then simulate these for a synthetic population over time. Results include predictions of future U.S. household-fleet composition, use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under nine different scenarios, including variations in fuel and plug-in-electric-vehicle (PHEV) prices, new-vehicle feebate policies, and land-use-density settings. The adoption and widespread use of plug-in vehicles will depend on thoughtful marketing, competitive pricing, government incentives, reliable driving-range reports, and adequate charging infrastructure. This work highlights the impacts of various directions consumers may head with such vehicles. For example, twenty-five-year simulations at gas prices at $7 per gallon resulted in the highest market share predictions (16.30%) for PHEVs, HEVs, and Smart Cars (combined) — and the greatest GHG-emissions reductions. Predictions under the two feebate policy scenarios suggest shifts toward fuel-efficient vehicles, but with vehicle miles traveled (VMT) rising slightly (by 0.96% and 1.42%), thanks to lower driving costs. The stricter of the two feebate policies – coupled with gasoline at $5 per gallon – resulted in the highest market share (16.37%) for PHEVs, HEVs, and Smart Cars, but not as much GHG emissions reduction as the $7 gas price scenario. Total VMT values under the two feebate scenarios and low-PHEV-pricing scenarios were higher than those under the trend scenario (by 0.56%, 0.96%, and 1.42%, respectively), but only the low-PHEV-pricing scenario delivered higher overall GHG emission estimates (just 0.23% more than trend) in year 2035. The high-density scenario (where job and household densities were quadrupled) resulted in the lowest total vehicle ownership levels, along with below-trend VMT and emissions rates. Finally, the scenario involving a $7,500 rebate on all PHEVs still predicted lower PHEV market share than the $7 gas price scenario (i.e., 2.85% rather than 3.78%). The second part of this thesis relies on data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) to estimate the welfare impacts of carbon taxes and household-level capping of emissions (with carbon-credit trading allowed). A translog utility framework was calibrated and then used to anticipate household expenditures across nine consumer goods categories, including vehicle usage and vehicle expenses. An input-output model was used to estimate the impact of carbon pricing on goods prices, and a vehicle choice model determined vehicle type preferences, along with each household’s effective travel costs. Behaviors were predicted under two carbon tax scenarios ($50 per ton and $100 per ton of CO2-equivalents) and four cap-and-trade scenarios (10-ton and 15-ton cap per person per year with trading allowed at $50 per ton and $100 per ton carbon price). Results suggest that low-income households respond the most under a $100-per-ton tax but increase GHG emissions under cap-and-trade scenarios, thanks to increased income via sale of their carbon credits. High-income households respond the most across all the scenarios under a 10-ton cap (per household member, per year) and trading at $100 per ton scenario. Highest overall emission reduction (47.2%) was estimated to be under $100 per ton carbon tax. High welfare loss was predicted for all households (to the order of 20% of household income) under both the policies. Results suggest that a carbon tax will be regressive (in terms of taxes paid per dollar of expenditure), but a tax-revenue redistribution can be used to offset this regressivity. In the absence of substitution opportunities (within each of the nine expenditure categories), these results represent highly conservative (worst-case) results, but they illuminate the behavioral response trends while providing a rigorous framework for future work. / text

The first chapter analizes conditional assistance programs. They generate conflicting relationships between international financial institutions (IFIs) and member countries. The experience of IFIs with conditionality in the 1990s led them to allow countries more latitude in the design of their reform programs. A reformist government does not need conditionality and it is useless if it does not want to reform. A government that faces opposition may use conditionality and the help of pro-reform lobbies as a lever to counteract anti-reform groups and succeed in implementing reforms. The second chapter analizes economies saddled with taxes and regulations. I consider an economy in which many taxes, subsidies, and other distortionary restrictions are in place simultaneously. If I start from an inefficient laissez-faire equilibrium because of some domestic distortion, a small trade tax or subsidy can yield a first-order welfare improvement, even if the instrument itself creates distortions of its own. This may result in "welfare paradoxes". The purpose of the chapter is to quantify the welfare effects of changes in tax rates in a small open economy. I conduct the simulation in the context of an intertemporal utility maximization framework. I apply numerical methods to the model developed by Karayalcin. I introduce changes in the tax rates and quantify both the impact on welfare, consumption and foreign assets, and the path to the new steady-state values. The third chapter studies the role of stock markets and adjustment costs in the international transmission of supply shocks. The analysis of the transmission of a positive supply shock that originates in one of the countries shows that on impact the shock leads to an inmediate stock market boom enjoying the technological advance, while the other country suffers from depress stock market prices as demand for its equity declines. A period of adjustment begins culminating in a steady state capital and output level that is identical to the one before the shock. The the capital stock of one country undergoes a non-monotonic adjustment. The model is tested with plausible values of the variables and the numeric results confirm the predictions of the theory.

While fringe benefits create value in the employer-employee relationship, implicitly subsidized fringe ben-efits risk incurring economic deadweight losses. An increasingly common fringe benefit in Europe is the company car. Literature has showed how fringe benefits should be taxed for tax neutrality yet current taxations of fringe benefits cars in Europe have been found to cause significant deadweight losses. The prevalence of fringe benefits cars in Europe generally and Sweden specifically renders it relevant to in-vestigate how the taxation of fringe benefits cars affect economic welfare. Fringe benefits cars are also of interest for policy evaluations, both in their provision as fringe benefits in terms of equity as well as a means of transportation and climate change mitigation. Sweden has committed to ambitious GHG emission policy goals which directly relates the composition of the Swedish (company) car fleet. The thesis methodology was based on a Dutch framework for welfare equations and statistical methods such as regression analysis. Interviews were conducted with industry professionals to gain market insights and perspectives in the case of company cars. A deadweight loss was found as SEK 2 300 per fringe benefits car and the total market deadweight loss was estimated to SEK 186 million. The automobile market gives rise to many externalities and some fringe benefits car related were quantified. Internalizing a conservative externality estimate yields additional deadweight losses at SEK 425 per fringe benefits car. Many socioeconomic factors were found to be correlated with car expenditure, most of them positively: household income, age and a managerial like position. Gender as in female had a negative effect on car expenditure. The current taxation of fringe benefits cars (2014) is potentially problematic for Swedish policy goals concerning traffic safety, climate change and gender equity for three reasons. The current taxation of fringe benefits cars: (1) might have negative safety implications from a system perspective on traffic safety, (2) does not necessarily promote more environmental friendly cars on average and (3) is not gender neutral as women as a group has a statistically lower preference for expensive cars. / Löneförmåner kan skapa värde i relationen mellan arbetsgivare och anställda men riskerar genom skattein-ducerade implicita prisreduktioner att ge upphov till ekonomiska dödviktsförluster. En vanlig och allt vikti-gare löneförmån i Europa är förmånsbilen. Litteraturen har visat hur löneförmåner kan beskattas samtidigt som beskattningen av förmånsbilar i Europa har gett upphov till just sådana ekonomiska dödviktsförluster. Den stora andelen förmånsbilar i Europa generellt och Sverige specifikt gör det relevant att undersöka hur den nuvarande beskattningen av förmånsbilar (2014) påverkar den ekonomiska välfärden. Förmånsbilar är även av intresse för policyutvärdering, både i egenskap av löneförmån gällande jämställdhet och i egen-skap av transportmedel med dess miljöpåverkan. Sverige har förbundit sig till ambitiösa utsläppsmål av växthusgaser vilket direkt relaterar till den svenska (förmåns)bilflottans komposition. Metoden i denna studie grundade sig främst på ett holländskt ramverk för välfärdsberäkning och statis-tiska analysmetoder såsom regressionsanalys. Intervjuer har hållits med nyckelpersoner verksamma inom billeasing. Det observerades en dödviktsförlust på 2 300 SEK per förmånsbil med en total marknadsdödvik-tsförlust beräknas till 186 miljoner SEK. Marknaden för bilar ger upphov till många marknadsexternaliteter varav vissa relaterade till förmånsbilar kvantifierades i denna studie. Internaliseras ett konservativt estimat fås ytterligare dödviktsförluster av 425 SEK per förmånsbil. Flera socioekonomiska faktorer påverkade bilutgifter, de flesta hade en positiv effekt: hushållsinkomst, ålder och en chefsliknande position. Att vara kvinna påverkade däremot bilutgifter negativt. Den nuvarande beskattningen av förmånsbilar (2014) kan problematiseras av tre anledningar relaterade till svenska policymål för trafiksäkerhet, klimatförändringar och jämställdhet. Den nuvarande beskattningen av förmånsbilar: (1) kan ge upphov till negativa olyck-sexternaliteter utifrån ett systemperspektiv på säkerhet, (2) ger inte nödvändigtvis mer miljövänliga bilar i genomsnitt och (3) är inte könsneutral då kvinnor har en statistiskt lägre preferens för dyra bilar.