In the Asian and other monsoon regions of the world most of the severe weather observed is local or mesoscale in nature. Forecasting convective storms or mesoscale systems in the monsoon regions, especially in the tropics, has always been a challenging task to operational meteorologists. Maldives Islands, being situated in the tropical Indian Ocean, are affected by monsoon depressions and tropical cyclones. Thunderstorms and the passage of squall lines are well known sources of heavy rainfall. However, due to the lack of professional people and necessary equipment the weather systems around these islands are seldom studied. Therefore the aim of this thesis is to investigate whether the small islands can create sufficient perturbations in the mesoscale environment to result in the development of convective systems. In this regard, two numerical models, Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF version 2.2.1) and Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS version 6.0) were used in this study. Two experiments were performed using the WRF model. In the first experiment, a case study was investigated where the selected day experienced heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. In the second experiment, the same case study was used but with the topographical and surface properties removed in order to investigate the influence of the island in modifying the mesoscale environment. All the experiments were initialized using the re-analysis data from NECP. WRF was able to predict the large scale synoptic features with reasonable accuracy when compared to the observations. Development of the boundary layer and the downstream advection of the temperature anomaly generated by the island were well represented. However, the magnitude of the effects was shown to be weak, probably due to the influence of large scale synoptic features. Even though the model was able to predict the large scale features and some of the mesoscale features, it did not predict any storm development and underestimated the precipitation. Therefore, it was decided to idealize the storm development using the RAMS model. RAMS model was used in a two-dimensional framework. The model was initialized horizontally homogenous using a single sounding and six simulations were performed. The simulation results clearly depicted that the small island can generate its own circulation and influence the mesoscale environment. The daytime heating of the island and the downstream advection of the temperature anomaly in a moist unstable atmosphere could trigger a thunderstorm later in the day. The storm becomes mature approximately 40-80 km offshore. This also suggests that triggering of a storm on one side of an atoll could influence the islands on the downstream side. Sensitivity of storm development to the thermodynamics showed that even with an unstable atmosphere, enough moisture in the lower and mid-troposphere is needed to trigger the storm. Sensitivity to the change of SST showed that convective development was suppressed with a drop of 1 oC. However, this needs further investigation. Assessment of sensitivity to the size of the island showed that the time of triggering of the storm was later and the scale of influence was smaller with a smaller island.

O presente estudo visa à obtenção de um modelo utilizando o acoplamento dos códigos WRF e CALPUFF com o objetivo de obter as características do campo meteorológico e da dispersão dos poluentes NO2 e SO2 de uma Usina Termelétrica localizada em Linhares. Foi utilizada uma grade de 100×100 células, com resolução de 1 km durante 90 h. Para vias de comparação, outra simulação foi feita sem a entrada do modelo WRF no CALMET, utilizando uma grade 15×15 sem modificar nenhum outro parâmetro. Os resultados obtidos foram comparados com dados do aeroporto de Vitória e com a legislação ambiental vigente. Para a camada limite planetária, o resultado obtido da simulação WRF/CALMET se encontra dentro da faixa encontrada na literatura. Os demais resultados, média de velocidade e direção do vento, para as duas simulações diferem entre si e dos dados do aeroporto, fato que já era esperado devido à distância e orografia entre a Usina e os dados da estação utilizados como entrada nos modelos. A concentração máxima obtida para os poluentes estudados se encontram dentro dos padrões de qualidade do ar. Devido à falta de dados observacionais, não foi possível uma genuína validação dos resultados, mas, sabendo a localização dos picos, foi possível sugerir locais de amostragem para futura comprovação dos resultados. / This study aims to create a model using the coupling of the WRF and CALPUFF codes in order to obtain characteristics of the meteorological field and the dispersion of pollutants NO2 and SO2 of a power plant located at the city of Linhares. The field consists of a grid of 100×100 cells resolution of 1 km for 90 h. Another simulation was made without using WRF as an input into CALMET, in the purpose of comparison, using a 15×15 grid and no change of other parameters. The results were compared to data from the airport of Vitória and against environmental legislation. For the planetary boundary layer the results of WRF/CALMET simulation are within the range found in the literature. The results of average wind speed and direction obtained by both simulations are different from each other and from the data of the airport,such as expected due to the distance and orography of the power plant and station data used as input into the models. The maximum concentrations of the pollutants are within air quality standards. Due to lack of observational data, genuine validation of the results is not feasible, but knowing the location of the concentration peak, it was possible to propose suitable sampling sites for future verification.

abstract: This study considered the impact of grid resolution on wind velocity simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The period simulated spanned November 2009 through January 2010, for which, multi-resolution nested domains were examined. Basic analysis was performed utilizing the data assimilation tools of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) to determine the ideal location to examine during the simulation was the Pacific Northwest portion of the United States, specifically the border between California and Oregon. The simulated mutli-resolution nested domains in this region indicated an increase in apparent wind speed as the resolution for the domain was increased. These findings were confirmed by statistical analysis which identified a positive bias for wind speed with respect to increased resolution as well as a correlation coefficient indicating the existence of a positive change in wind speed with increased resolution. An analysis of temperature change was performed in order to test the validity of the findings of the WRF simulation model. The statistical analysis performed on temperature change throughout the increased grid resolution did not indicate any change in temperature. In fact the correlation coefficient values between the domains were found in the 0.90 range, indicating the non-sensitivity of temperature across the increased resolutions. These results validate the findings of the WRF simulation: increased wind velocity can be observed at higher grid resolution. The study then considered the difference between wind velocity observed over the entire domains and the wind velocity observed solely over offshore locations. Wind velocity was observed to be significantly higher (an increase of 68.4%) in the offshore locations. The findings of this study suggest simulation tools should be utilized to examine domains at a higher resolution in order to identify potential locations for wind farms. The results go further to suggest the ideal location for these potential wind farms will be at offshore locations. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Mechanical Engineering 2012

O presente estudo visa à obtenção de um modelo utilizando o acoplamento dos códigos WRF e CALPUFF com o objetivo de obter as características do campo meteorológico e da dispersão dos poluentes NO2 e SO2 de uma Usina Termelétrica localizada em Linhares. Foi utilizada uma grade de 100×100 células, com resolução de 1 km durante 90 h. Para vias de comparação, outra simulação foi feita sem a entrada do modelo WRF no CALMET, utilizando uma grade 15×15 sem modificar nenhum outro parâmetro. Os resultados obtidos foram comparados com dados do aeroporto de Vitória e com a legislação ambiental vigente. Para a camada limite planetária, o resultado obtido da simulação WRF/CALMET se encontra dentro da faixa encontrada na literatura. Os demais resultados, média de velocidade e direção do vento, para as duas simulações diferem entre si e dos dados do aeroporto, fato que já era esperado devido à distância e orografia entre a Usina e os dados da estação utilizados como entrada nos modelos. A concentração máxima obtida para os poluentes estudados se encontram dentro dos padrões de qualidade do ar. Devido à falta de dados observacionais, não foi possível uma genuína validação dos resultados, mas, sabendo a localização dos picos, foi possível sugerir locais de amostragem para futura comprovação dos resultados. / This study aims to create a model using the coupling of the WRF and CALPUFF codes in order to obtain characteristics of the meteorological field and the dispersion of pollutants NO2 and SO2 of a power plant located at the city of Linhares. The field consists of a grid of 100×100 cells resolution of 1 km for 90 h. Another simulation was made without using WRF as an input into CALMET, in the purpose of comparison, using a 15×15 grid and no change of other parameters. The results were compared to data from the airport of Vitória and against environmental legislation. For the planetary boundary layer the results of WRF/CALMET simulation are within the range found in the literature. The results of average wind speed and direction obtained by both simulations are different from each other and from the data of the airport,such as expected due to the distance and orography of the power plant and station data used as input into the models. The maximum concentrations of the pollutants are within air quality standards. Due to lack of observational data, genuine validation of the results is not feasible, but knowing the location of the concentration peak, it was possible to propose suitable sampling sites for future verification.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi o analisar o impacto da resolução dos conjuntos de dados topográficos nas simulações das concentrações de dióxido de enxofre (SO2) emitido por uma fonte localizada no Sul do Brasil. Para isso foram realizadas duas simulações aplicando o modelo regional Weather Research and Forecasting acoplado com a química (WRF/Chem), configurado com duas representações do terreno de diferentes resoluções espaciais. Foram utilizados os dados padrão do modelo com melhor resolução, Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation (GTOPO), com aproximadamente 1 km, e inserido no bancos de dados do modelo as informações de terreno em alta-resolução do Radar Shuttle Topography Mission (SRTM) (30 metros). Para as emissões antrópicas do modelo foi elaborado um programa capaz inserir os volumes do poluente SO2 de forma horária expelidos pela chaminé, de acordo com as taxas de emissão medidos diretamente na fonte. O programa representou a emissão do poluente no ponto de grade correspondente a localização e a altura acima da superfície da chaminé da fonte. As simulações foram configuradas com os seguintes esquemas de parametrização: para microfísica de nuvens foi utilizado o Goddard Cumulus Ensemble; os esquemas de radiação de onda longa e curta foram o Goddard e o Rapid Radiative Transfer Model para modelos de circulação geral da atmosfera (MCGA); para a parametrização de cumulus o esquema utilizado foi o Grell 3D Ensemble Scheme; e para os esquemas de camada superficial e camada limite planetária foram utilizados os da teoria da similaridade do Fifth-Generation National Center for Atmospheric Research/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) e o Yonsey University, respectivamente. A escolha desta combinação de esquemas foi definida a partir de um estudo inicial da sensibilidade do modelo à mudança das parametrizações. Os resultados dos experimentos numéricos alterando a topografia foram validados a partir dos dados de monitoramento das estações meteorológica e da qualidade do ar pertencentes à empresa responsável pelo empreendimento associado à fonte. Foi observado que as simulações com os dados SRTM expressaram o terreno da região de estudo mais próximo à realidade, representando o aspecto heterogêneo do relevo, ressaltando os picos e os vales. Os resultados das validações meteorológicas utilizando os dados topográficos indicaram melhoras nas simulações das variáveis meteorológicas: temperatura, umidade relativa, velocidade do vento e precipitação. Os experimentos com os dados topográficos GTOPO e SRTM no modelo WRF/Chem, configurado com as emissões horárias da fonte de Candiota, reproduziram o comportamento dos ventos para transporte de SO2 até as estações de monitoramento conforme os dados observados. Porém foram identificados padrões diferentes na representação das concentrações do poluente entre as duas simulações do modelo, associados aos escoamentos dos ventos representados pelos experimentos. A resolução da topografia afetou na simulação de SO2 devido ao aumento da forçante superficial induzida pelo terreno. Este aumento na forçante, influenciou a advecção da pluma de SO2, resultando em diferentes padrões das concentrações de SO2 no ponto de grade correspondente às estações de monitoramento. Contudo, os resultados das simulações das concentrações de SO2, tanto de forma horária quanto na abordagem das médias diárias, não indicaram uma relação linear entre a utilização de dados em alta resolução e a melhora na representação do SO2 pelo modelo WRF/Chem. / The objective of this work was to analyze the impact of the higher resolution topographic data sets in the simulations of the Sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations emitted by a source located Southern Brazil. Two simulations were performed applying the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry – WRF/Chem, configured with two representations of the terrain with different spatial resolutions. The standard data of the model with the best resolution (approximately 1 km), Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation (GTOPO), and was inserted in the model databases the high-resolution (30 meters) terrain information of the Radar Shuttle Topography Mission (SRTM). For the anthropic emissions of the model, a program was developed capable of inserting the hourly SO2 pollutant volumes expelled by the chimney, according to the emission rates measured directly at the source. The program inserted these emissions into the grid point corresponding to the location and height above the surface of the emission source. The simulations were configured with the following parameterization schemes: for cloud microphysics Goddard Cumulus Ensemble; for the long and short wave radiation treatment it was used the Goddard and the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for general circulation models; for the cumulus parameterization the scheme it was used the Grell 3D Ensemble Scheme; and for the surface layer and planetary boundary layer schemes, the similarity theory of the Fifth-Generation National Center for Atmospheric Research/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Yonsey University, respectively. The choice of this combination of schemes was defined from an initial study of the sensitivity of the model to the change of parametrizations. The results of the numerical experiments altering the topography were validated from the monitoring data of the meteorological stations and the air quality belonging to the company responsible for the enterprise associated to the source. It was observed that the simulations with the SRTM data expressed the terrain of the region of study closest to reality, representing the heterogeneous aspect of the terrain, highlighting the peaks and valleys. The results of the meteorological validations using the new topographic data indicated an improvement in the simulations of the meteorological variables: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation. The experiments with the GTOPO and SRTM topographic data in WRF/Chem model, configured with the hourly emissions of the Candiota source, reproduced the winds behavior that transported the SO2 to the monitoring stations according to the observed data. However, different patterns were identified in the pollutant concentrations between the two simulations of the model, associated to the wind flows represented by the experiments. The topography resolution affected in the simulation of SO2 due to the increase of the surface forcing induced by the terrain. This increase in the forcing influenced the advection of the SO2 plume, resulting in different patterns of SO2 concentrations at the grid point corresponding to the monitoring stations. However, the results of simulations of SO2 concentrations, both hourly and in the approach of daily averages, did not indicate a linear relationship between the use of high resolution data and the improvement in the representation of SO2 by WRF/Chem model.

Atmospheric trace components play a critical role in the earth–atmosphere system through their interaction and perturbation to global atmospheric chemistry. They perturb the climate through scattering and absorbing of solar radiation (direct effects), thereby impacting on the heat energy balance of the atmosphere, and alter cloud microphysical properties affecting cloud formation, cloud lifetime and precipitation formation (indirect effects). These trace components can also have adverse effects on human health, visibility and air quality (AQ) composition, including various feedback processes on the state of the atmosphere. As well as their direct and indirect effects, aerosols are important for cloud formation. They serve as cloud condensation and ice nuclei (CCN and IN) during cloud droplet and ice crystal formations. Although many connections between clouds and aerosol effects have been established in cloud physics and climate modelling, aerosol–cloud interaction (ACI) is still one of the areas of large uncertainties in modern climate and weather projections. Different models have been developed placing much emphasis on ACIs, to have robust and more consistent description processes within the meteorological and chemical variables to account for ACIs and feedback processes. Because pollutant distributions are controlled by a specific meteorology that promotes residence times and vertical mixing in the atmosphere, reliable chemical composition measurements are required to understand the changes occurring in the earth–atmosphere system. Also, because atmospheric pollution is a combination of both natural and man-made (anthropogenic) sources, to direct controlled and/or mitigation procedures efficiently, contributions of different sources need to be considered. Occasionally these are explored from a particular region or global environment, depending on a specific area of interest. A fully coupled online meteorology–chemistry model framework (WRF-Chem) is used to investigate atmospheric ACIs over southern Africa –a region characterized by a strong and intense seasonal biomass burning (BB) cycle. The large transport of aerosol plumes originating from the seasonal burning from agriculture, land-use management and various activities give rise to a unique situation warranting special scrutiny. Simulations are conducted for the 2008 dry season BB episode, implementing a chemical dataset from various emission sources (anthropogenic, BB, biogenic, dust and sea salt) with the meteorological conditions. A base line (CNTRL) simulation was conducted with all emission sources from 26 August to 10 September 2008. To probe the contribution of BB on the regional pollution and influence on ACIs, a sensitivity (TEST) simulation was conducted without BB emissions and compared to the base line. The impact of natural and anthropogenic aerosol particles is studied and quantified for the two simulations, focusing on aerosol concentration and cloud responses under different model resolutions. A statistical analysis of pollutant concentration of major regulated species and cloud variables is conducted and the percentage difference used to assess the contribution due to BB emissions. Results confirm the high variability of spatial and temporal patterns of chemical species, with the greatest discrepancies occurring in the tropical forests whereas the subtropics show more urban/industrial related emissions. Whilst CO and O3 show statistically significant increases over a number of cities/towns, the trend and spatial variability is much less uniform with NO2 and PM in most urban and populous cities. Statistical analysis of major chemical pollutants was mainly influenced by BB emissions. O3, NOx, CO and PM increase by 24%, 76%, 51%, 46% and 41% over the main source regions, whereas in the less affected regions concentrations increased by 5%, 5%, 5%, 3% and 2% when BB emissions are included. This study sheds new light on the response of cloud processes to changing aerosol concentrations and different model resolutions. In the parameterised case (dx = 20 km), clouds become more cellular, correlated with high supersaturations, whereas in the resolved case (dx = 4 km), they become more faint with relatively lower supersaturations. Aerosol effects on cloud properties were further studied and statistical analysis conducted on CCN, cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), supersaturation and aerosol optical depth (AOD) at two different grid spacings. Most clouds occur to the west of the domain coincident with increase in aerosol concentration and AOD, while single scattering albedo (SSA) decreases. A considerable cloud ‘burn-off’ occurs in tropical west Africa, where aerosols can also be lofted up to 500-hPa level when BB emissions are included in the simulation. Due to BB, absorbing aerosol increased by 76% and 23% over tropical west and subtropical southeast, while tropical east shows no change. The study shows that tropical central Africa is characterized by an increased build-up in biomass burning aerosols (BBAs), forming a regional haze with high AOD; this becomes stronger near active burning areas with a significant proportion occurring to the west. AOD enhancement increases up to 38%, 31% and 11% in the west, east and south respectively. Although CDNC increased in areas with high aerosol concentration, supersaturation decreases (in the small domains) since increase in aerosol number concentration decreases maximum supersaturation Smax. Changes in absorbed radiation increased by +56 Wm-2, +23 Wm-2 and +14 Wm-2 in the west, east and southeast. To further evaluate the model sensitivity and its skill, an analysis was conducted by comparing the model performance with measurement data. Simulated AOD, surface concentrations of CO and O3, ozonesondes and liquid water path (LWP) were compared with measured data from MODIS satellite, SAFARI2000 field study and Cape Point WMO. The model shows a good skill in capturing and reproducing the trends as that measured. However, a severe lack of measurement data over southern Africa makes it more difficult to effectively evaluate WRF-Chem over southern Africa. There is a need for increased availability of measurements to adequately compare with models. This study is one of the first WRF-Chem studies conducted over southern Africa to simulate the weather and pollution interaction. The novelty of the present study is the combined analysis of ACI sensitivity to aerosol loading and cloud response in a regime-based approach. The study concludes with a brief discusssion of future directions for work on AQ and modelling interactions between pollution and weather over southern Africa.

abstract: Urbanization, a direct consequence of land use and land cover change, is responsible for significant modification of local to regional scale climates. It is projected that the greatest urban growth of this century will occur in urban areas in the developing world. In addition, there is a significant research gap in emerging nations concerning this topic. Thus, this research focuses on the assessment of climate impacts related to urbanization on the largest metropolitan area in Latin America: Mexico City. Numerical simulations using a state-of-the-science regional climate model are utilized to address a trio of scientifically relevant questions with wide global applicability. The importance of an accurate representation of land use and land cover is first demonstrated through comparison of numerical simulations against observations. Second, the simulated effect of anthropogenic heating is quantified. Lastly, numerical simulations are performed using pre-historic scenarios of land use and land cover to examine and quantify the impact of Mexico City's urban expansion and changes in surface water features on its regional climate. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Geography 2015

O objetivo deste trabalho foi o analisar o impacto da resolução dos conjuntos de dados topográficos nas simulações das concentrações de dióxido de enxofre (SO2) emitido por uma fonte localizada no Sul do Brasil. Para isso foram realizadas duas simulações aplicando o modelo regional Weather Research and Forecasting acoplado com a química (WRF/Chem), configurado com duas representações do terreno de diferentes resoluções espaciais. Foram utilizados os dados padrão do modelo com melhor resolução, Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation (GTOPO), com aproximadamente 1 km, e inserido no bancos de dados do modelo as informações de terreno em alta-resolução do Radar Shuttle Topography Mission (SRTM) (30 metros). Para as emissões antrópicas do modelo foi elaborado um programa capaz inserir os volumes do poluente SO2 de forma horária expelidos pela chaminé, de acordo com as taxas de emissão medidos diretamente na fonte. O programa representou a emissão do poluente no ponto de grade correspondente a localização e a altura acima da superfície da chaminé da fonte. As simulações foram configuradas com os seguintes esquemas de parametrização: para microfísica de nuvens foi utilizado o Goddard Cumulus Ensemble; os esquemas de radiação de onda longa e curta foram o Goddard e o Rapid Radiative Transfer Model para modelos de circulação geral da atmosfera (MCGA); para a parametrização de cumulus o esquema utilizado foi o Grell 3D Ensemble Scheme; e para os esquemas de camada superficial e camada limite planetária foram utilizados os da teoria da similaridade do Fifth-Generation National Center for Atmospheric Research/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) e o Yonsey University, respectivamente. A escolha desta combinação de esquemas foi definida a partir de um estudo inicial da sensibilidade do modelo à mudança das parametrizações. Os resultados dos experimentos numéricos alterando a topografia foram validados a partir dos dados de monitoramento das estações meteorológica e da qualidade do ar pertencentes à empresa responsável pelo empreendimento associado à fonte. Foi observado que as simulações com os dados SRTM expressaram o terreno da região de estudo mais próximo à realidade, representando o aspecto heterogêneo do relevo, ressaltando os picos e os vales. Os resultados das validações meteorológicas utilizando os dados topográficos indicaram melhoras nas simulações das variáveis meteorológicas: temperatura, umidade relativa, velocidade do vento e precipitação. Os experimentos com os dados topográficos GTOPO e SRTM no modelo WRF/Chem, configurado com as emissões horárias da fonte de Candiota, reproduziram o comportamento dos ventos para transporte de SO2 até as estações de monitoramento conforme os dados observados. Porém foram identificados padrões diferentes na representação das concentrações do poluente entre as duas simulações do modelo, associados aos escoamentos dos ventos representados pelos experimentos. A resolução da topografia afetou na simulação de SO2 devido ao aumento da forçante superficial induzida pelo terreno. Este aumento na forçante, influenciou a advecção da pluma de SO2, resultando em diferentes padrões das concentrações de SO2 no ponto de grade correspondente às estações de monitoramento. Contudo, os resultados das simulações das concentrações de SO2, tanto de forma horária quanto na abordagem das médias diárias, não indicaram uma relação linear entre a utilização de dados em alta resolução e a melhora na representação do SO2 pelo modelo WRF/Chem. / The objective of this work was to analyze the impact of the higher resolution topographic data sets in the simulations of the Sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations emitted by a source located Southern Brazil. Two simulations were performed applying the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry – WRF/Chem, configured with two representations of the terrain with different spatial resolutions. The standard data of the model with the best resolution (approximately 1 km), Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation (GTOPO), and was inserted in the model databases the high-resolution (30 meters) terrain information of the Radar Shuttle Topography Mission (SRTM). For the anthropic emissions of the model, a program was developed capable of inserting the hourly SO2 pollutant volumes expelled by the chimney, according to the emission rates measured directly at the source. The program inserted these emissions into the grid point corresponding to the location and height above the surface of the emission source. The simulations were configured with the following parameterization schemes: for cloud microphysics Goddard Cumulus Ensemble; for the long and short wave radiation treatment it was used the Goddard and the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for general circulation models; for the cumulus parameterization the scheme it was used the Grell 3D Ensemble Scheme; and for the surface layer and planetary boundary layer schemes, the similarity theory of the Fifth-Generation National Center for Atmospheric Research/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Yonsey University, respectively. The choice of this combination of schemes was defined from an initial study of the sensitivity of the model to the change of parametrizations. The results of the numerical experiments altering the topography were validated from the monitoring data of the meteorological stations and the air quality belonging to the company responsible for the enterprise associated to the source. It was observed that the simulations with the SRTM data expressed the terrain of the region of study closest to reality, representing the heterogeneous aspect of the terrain, highlighting the peaks and valleys. The results of the meteorological validations using the new topographic data indicated an improvement in the simulations of the meteorological variables: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation. The experiments with the GTOPO and SRTM topographic data in WRF/Chem model, configured with the hourly emissions of the Candiota source, reproduced the winds behavior that transported the SO2 to the monitoring stations according to the observed data. However, different patterns were identified in the pollutant concentrations between the two simulations of the model, associated to the wind flows represented by the experiments. The topography resolution affected in the simulation of SO2 due to the increase of the surface forcing induced by the terrain. This increase in the forcing influenced the advection of the SO2 plume, resulting in different patterns of SO2 concentrations at the grid point corresponding to the monitoring stations. However, the results of simulations of SO2 concentrations, both hourly and in the approach of daily averages, did not indicate a linear relationship between the use of high resolution data and the improvement in the representation of SO2 by WRF/Chem model.

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(工学) / 乙第12484号 / 論工博第4044号 / 新制||工||1498(附属図書館) / 28157 / (主査)教授 角 哲也, 教授 堀 智晴, 准教授 立川 康人 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当

The thesis is presented in alternative format, meaning that the results of the thesis take the form of three journal articles, each telling a distinct story within the subject matter, but collectively highlighting the sensitivity of bands to frictional and diabatic processes. Paper 1 is an idealised-modelling study with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, in which moist baroclinic waves are simulated from an initial zonally uniform mid-latitude jet on an f-plane at 20-km grid spacing, and the sensitivity of the resulting precipitation bands is explored. Paper 2 employs further WRF idealised-baroclinic-wave simulations and takes a simulation from Paper 1, after the cold front has formed, as the initial condition. A nested domain at 4-km grid spacing is inserted when this simulation is re-initialised to invesigate the sensitivity of finer-scale precipitation cores along the surface cold front. In both Papers 1 and 2, friction and latent-heat release enhance multiple banding at the two distinct horizontal scales, while surface fluxes hinder multiple banding. Paper 3 studies post-frontal snowbands over the English Channel and Irish Sea during extreme cold-air outbreaks in the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11, via a climatology of precipitation-radar, sounding, and SST data, and real-data WRF sensitivity simulations of one such band over the English Channel. The observational and modelling results show that strong winds and large differential heat fluxes between land and sea were necessary to generate banded precipitation. Coastal orography and the land-sea frictional contrast aided the morphology of bands, but banded precipitation did still form in the absence of these influences in the sensitivity simulations. These three studies and the thesis as a whole highlight the role of frictional and diabatic processes in modifying various types of precipitation bands within baroclinic waves, and in generating bands that would otherwise not exist.