High quality financial reporting is critically important for bank regulation, particularly market discipline, but limited evidence exists on why banks provide different levels of financial reporting quality. I examine whether institutional investors and financial analysts impact bank financial reporting quality. Although I find no impact of analysts on bank financial reporting quality, institutional ownership is positively associated with financial reporting quality, and this relation is strongest for banks with high information asymmetry and for “monitoring” institutional investors. Institutional investors also sell shares following the announcement of a restatement, suggesting they are willing to use the threat of exit as a mechanism to influence bank managers and demand financial reporting quality. Finally, I find institutional investors demand financial reporting quality primarily for high risk banks and also reduce ex-ante bank risk and ex-post non-performing loans. Collectively, these results suggest institutional investors are an important component of bank governance. / text

In this thesis, I examine the factors associated with analysts’ voluntary practice of issuing cash flow forecasts and earnings forecasts on the same day. I draw on Hughes and Pae’s (2004) management partial disclosure equilibrium and predict how an analyst decides to issue a cash flow forecast revision along with and according to her bad news and good news earnings forecast revision. In particular, I predict that analysts strategically choose to supplement earnings forecasts with positive cash flow news when they deliver bad news earnings forecasts. Consistent with my prediction, I find that analysts are more likely to issue cash flow forecast revisions in the opposite direction to their earnings forecast revisions when they issue downward earnings forecast revisions than when they issue upward earnings forecast revisions. The results suggest that analysts may not make their decisions to issue cash flow forecasts as objectively as they ought to do in their role as independent information intermediaries. Rather, analyst decisions to issue cash flow forecasts are akin to managers’ strategic decisions to voluntarily disclose supplemental information to affect investors’ confidence in their primary news (earnings forecasts). / Thesis (Ph.D, Management) -- Queen's University, 2009-05-27 16:20:09.248

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / Structural economic changes in many countries, together with unprecedented developments in the business environment, have significantly affected the value creation processes of firms and the way business is conducted. The traditional financial reporting model is inadequate as a consequence of these developments, and intellectual capital (IC) information has gained importance for investment decision making. Empirical capital markets research demonstrates the value-relevance and predictive ability of certain types of IC information. The use of IC information by capital market participants is a topic that has begun to gain attention from contemporary researchers, but for which scant empirical evidence exists. Much of the research in this area relies on the literature about the use of non-financial information (NFI), which is inadequate in its examination of certain types of IC information. Therefore, the main aim of this thesis is to examine the use and communication of IC information by sell-side analysts. Sell-side analysts are of particular interest because they are capital market intermediaries and sophisticated processors of corporate information. The reports they produce provide an opportunity to examine their use and communication of IC information. The specific objectives of this thesis are to examine: the extent and types of IC information used by sell-side analysts in initiating coverage reports produced by them; how IC information is used and communicated in these reports; and factors that may influence the use of IC information by sell-side analysts. In order to address these research objectives a content analysis of IC references in 64 initiating coverage reports written on an equivalent number of S&P/ASX 200/300 companies is performed. The content analysis identifies and measures IC references by topic, evidence (discursive, monetary, numerical, or visual), news-tenor (positive, neutral or negative) and time orientation (forward-looking, past-oriented or non-time-specific). The findings indicate that Australian sell-side analysts appreciate the importance of IC in firm valuation, and thus are not ambivalent about the use of IC information in general. However, the findings suggest that their communication of IC information is inconsistent and unsystematic, and inadequate in relation to certain types of IC. This highlights the need for undertaking work at a policy level to educate and train sell-side analysts to deal with IC information, and the development of better models and guidelines for analysing and communicating IC information. On how IC information is used, this thesis finds that sell-side analysts have varying uses of IC information. It was found that IC is predominantly communicated discursively, positively, and in a past-oriented manner; and in doing so IC is used as a tool to further the sell-side analysts’ agenda for the company analysed. Further, the results highlight that the type of investment recommendation in analyst reports impacts on the evidence, news tenor, and time-orientation of IC communicated. These findings alert future researchers to the wider role played by IC beyond its use in forecasts and valuations. Also, the findings indicate inter-sectoral differences in the use of IC information in analyst reports, highlighting the need to improve IC reporting practices of firms by including additional information on industry-specific IC value drivers. Further, it was found that sell-side analysts emphasise IC information in analyst reports for companies from high IC-intensive sectors compared to those from low IC-intensive sectors. Similarly, it was found that analyst reports on risky companies contain significantly more IC information than analyst reports on less risky companies. Contrary to expectations, the extent of IC information is not found to vary with firm size and firm profitability. Also, the results support that the extent of certain types of IC information differs between types of analysts’ investment recommendations. More generally, the findings of this thesis suggest that the corporate reporting process could be improved by including additional types of IC information and providing this information more effectively in a manner that enables users to visualise the interrelationships between resources (both tangible and intangible) and outcomes. This study calls for standards or guidelines for intellectual capital reporting (ICR) in Australia and the expansion of the role of auditing and assurance services to enhance reliability of firm provided IC information in a bid to improve the use of IC information in company analysis by sell-side analysts.

D.Ing. (Engineering Management) / The requirements discipline is at the heart of systems engineering, software engineering and business analysis. When a solution needs to be developed, built or bought that will be useful to the users and that will achieve the intended business goals, the problem needs to be understood before a possible solution can be developed. This process of understanding the problem that needs to be solved and what the solution should achieve is referred to as the requirements process. Requirements are the input to the solution development process. If the requirements are incorrect, the developed solution will not be useful. The purpose of this study was to discover the social behaviour of practitioners that causes the communication breakdowns during the requirements engineering process. Requirements emerge from the social interaction and communication between the requirements practitioner and the various stakeholders. The main problems with the requirements engineering process are communication and coordination breakdowns, as well as the lack of domain knowledge or understanding of the problem. These challenges are all related to the social interaction during the requirements engineering process that impacts the quality of requirements. Researchers have made significant progress in the development of methodologies. Tools and techniques are available for improving the quality of requirements. However, in practice, requirements are still produced with errors which then leads to unsuccessful solutions to problems. The requirements engineering process is executed within a social context. These social elements should be taken into consideration to improve quality. Based on the results collected from real-world practice as well as people’s behaviour in the real world, a complete understanding of the influence on the requirements process was derived. This understanding was used to identify the social elements required during the requirements engineering process. A socio-technical view is provided of the social and the technical activities that should be facilitated by the requirements engineering process. This framework integrates the required communicative activities with the traditional requirements activity. This socio-technical framework for the requirements engineering process was developed based on a survey. The aim of this framework is to overcome the social behaviour that causes communication breakdowns and impacts on the quality of the requirements. The research contributes to the existing requirements knowledge base. The socio-technical framework developed for the requirements process concerns the communication breakdowns continuously highlighted as a contributing factor to poor requirements, by providing the social activities required during the requirements process as guidance. Secondly, the knowledge acquired provides adequate data on requirements practice for future research. Specific focus areas for practitioners and managers on how to improve the requirements engineering process without the adoption of any new tools or methodologies are also included in the results. Additionally, practitioners’ behaviour was determined. By determining these interaction and relationship patterns, communication can be improved and made more effective.

In this thesis, I study three aspects of sell-side analysts’ stock price forecasts, henceforth target prices: analyst teams’ target price forecast characteristics, analysts’ use of information to revise target prices, and determinants of target price disagreement between analysts.The first essay studies the target price forecast performance of team analysts in the UK and finds that teams issue timelier but not less accurate target prices. Unlike evidence from previous studies, my findings suggest that analyst teamwork may improve forecast timeliness without sacrificing forecast accuracy. However, market reactions to team target price revisions are not significantly different from those to individual analyst target price revisions, suggesting that although target prices issued by analyst teams are timelier and not less accurate than those of individual analysts, investors do not consider analyst team target prices more informative. I conjecture that analysts may work in teams to meet the demand to cover more companies while maintaining the quality of research by individual team members rather than to issue more informative reports.In the second essay, I study how analysts revise their target prices in response to new information implicit in recent market returns, stock excess returns and other analysts’ target price revisions. The results suggest that analysts’ target price revisions are significantly influenced by market returns, stock excess return and other analysts’ target price revisions. I also find that the correlation between target price revisions and stock excess returns is significantly higher when the news implicit in these returns is bad rather than good. I conjecture that analysts discover more bad news from the information in stock excess returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it becomes inevitable, while they disclose good news early. Using a new measure of bad to good news concentration, I show that the asymmetric responsiveness of target price revisions to positive and negative stock excess returns is significant for firms with the highest concentration of bad news but is insignificant for firms with the lowest concentration of bad news. I argue that firms with the highest concentration of bad news are more likely to withhold and accumulate bad news. The findings, therefore, support my hypothesis that analysts discover more bad news than good news from stock returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it is inevitable. The third essay examines the determinants of analyst target price disagreement. I find that while disagreement in short-term earnings and in long-term earnings growth forecasts are significant determinants, recent 12-month idiosyncratic return volatility has the strongest explanatory power for target price disagreement. The findings suggest that target price disagreement is driven not only by analyst disagreement about short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth, but also by differences in analysts’ opinions about the impact of recent firm-specific events on value drivers beyond short-term future earnings and long-term growth, which are eventually reflected in past idiosyncratic return volatility.

Research has shown that well-trained staff within early and intensive behavioral intervention (EIBI) provide more effective treatment. An important part of training is learning the vocabulary and concepts of treatment. This aids in conceptual understanding of the principles and procedures. The process of learning behavioral concepts also develops the necessary verbal repertoire needed to communicate among members of a community of practice; a group of people who have common reinforcers and are working toward a common goal. Learning to tact a series of sequential descriptions, or verbally narrate, exemplary teaching interactions should be a goal when teaching behavior analysis because it is how we, as a community, interact and establish an understanding of behavior analysis. The purpose of the current study is to train novice behavior analysts to narrate exemplary intervention sequences that are responsive, flexible, and effective teaching interactions. The effects of the training were evaluated using a multiple baseline design across training conditions, replicated across 3 participants. The results suggest that the training was effective in increasing the number of narrative statements as well as the number of narrative statements related to five critical features of a teaching interaction and the relations between those features. The results are discussed in the context of future research directions, including studies of correspondence between verbal behavior and teaching interaction performance.

This research will contribute to the literature of managerial ability and analyst following as well as narrative disclosure in the following ways. This study is the first to investigate the association between managerial ability and external information intermediaries such as financial analysts to the best of our knowledge. Most of the earlier studies on managerial ability focus on firms’ internal information environment such as operating and financial decisions, and limited studies examine the relation between managerial ability with external perception of the information environment and narrative disclosures. We extend this literature by examining how managerial ability impacts the firm's external information environment, affecting informational intermediaries' work processes, such as financial analysts. We find that managers' higher ability leads to better performance by financial analysts regarding their forecast error, dispersion, and willingness to provide coverage on the firm. We also step further by employing more advanced and novel measures to assess managerial ability's impact on market intermediaries’ external work and perception. Able managers impact reporting informativeness, response time, and the uncertainty of the forecasts from financial analysts. Further, we examine informational channels or mediators (i.e., analyst following and readability of narrative disclosure), highlighting how managerial ability can be linked the better performance by financial analysts. We intend to show how variables like disclosure readability and analyst following mediate between managerial ability and analyst forecast properties (i.e., error and Dispersion). In the last part of the research, we answer how analysts' better performance can be a channel to help able managers increase their firms' value (i.e., analyst’s forecast error acts as the channel from the managerial ability to firm’s performance).

Broadly, this study focuses on roles of sell-side analysts and examines the determinants and consequences of information discovery and stock timing roles by sell-side analysts. We also re-examine reiterations of prior recommendations by sell-side analysts. In Chapter 1, the contribution is to document that analysts add value by engaging in discovery of private information and this value addition is greater than that due to interpretation of public news or stock timing. The innovation in this Chapter is to read over 3,700 analyst reports from Investext and explicitly identify whether the report contains discovery, interpretation, and/or timing. Analysts discover new information by talking to management sources (personal meetings, investor meetings, and conference calls) or non-management sources (such as channel checks). We find that information discovery is prevalent in 17% of the reports. The cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for reports containing discovery are 6.3% for upgrades and -10.6% for downgrades. The CARs are higher for reports containing discovery relative to those containing interpretation or timing. We find that economic determinants predict whether a report will contain discovery. Discovery from management sources is more likely for reports in the pre-Reg FD period and for reports by optimistic analysts. Discovery from non-management sources is more likely for reports written by All-Star analysts, and for firms that have high information asymmetry and those that are followed by more analysts. In Chapter 2, the contribution is to introduce and document a third role that analysts play that is also valuable to investors, which we term "stock timing." Specifically, we define a timing report as one where the analyst revises his recommendation but does not revise the Price Target or any of the 23 fundamental drivers of stock price (such as EPS, FCF) tracked by I/B/E/S. Because the analyst maintains the same price target as in his prior report but still revises his recommendation, such timing calls are contrarian valuation calls. Analysts issue timing downgrades (upgrades) in response to price increases (declines) since the release of their prior report on the firm. 30% of all revisions are timing reports, indicating the importance of the timing role played by analysts. If analysts have timing ability, then markets should react to the release of the timing report and we should observe that economic determinants explain the cross-sectional variation in timing ability. We find the 3-day announcement return is over 2% in magnitude, 62% of the reports are winners (have announcement returns that have the correct sign), 10% of the reports are large enough to be considered influential, and 37% of the reports are persistent winners. These results suggest that analysts have timing ability. The ability to time is similar is magnitude to information interpretation but smaller compared to information discovery. We find considerable cross-sectional and time-series variation in timing ability. We find that the probability of issuing a timing report is positively related to the opportunities to time the stock provided by potential mispricing. Conditional on issuing a timing report, the probability of issuing a winner, an influential winner, or a persistent winner is positively related to analyst experience and negatively related to the costs associated with issuing a timing report. In Chapter 3, we document that recommendation reiterations are not homogeneous and there is a large subset of reiterations that are as much valued by investors as recommendation revisions. We combine Detail History file containing the measures tracked by I/B/E/S (Price Target, EPS, etc.) and Recommendation file to create the full time series of recommendations (initiations, reiterations, and revisions) made by each analyst for each firm for 14 years from 1999 to 2012. By adopting a modified version of "filling in the holes" method, we find that recommendation reiterations are prevalent, consisting of about 80% of recommendations for our 14-year sample period. Second, market response to recommendation reiterations increases monotonically from Reiteration: Strong Sell to Reiteration: Strong Buy. Third, reiterations coupled with contemporary changes in price targets and/or earning forecasts bring substantial absolute abnormal stock returns to investors. Lastly, when we replicate what Loh and Stulz (2011), we find that the number of reiterations which are influential is more than twice that of recommendation revisions that are influential. / Business Administration/Finance

<p> We developed and tested procedures to rank the performance of security analysts according to the timeliness of their earning forecasts. We compared leaders and followers among analysts on various performance attributes, such as accuracy, boldness, experience, brokerage size and so on. We also use discriminant analysis and logistic regression model to examine what attributes have an effect on the classification. Further, we examined whether the timeliness of forecasts is related to their impact on stock prices. We found that the lead analysts identified by the measure of forecast timeliness have a greater impact on stock price than follower analysts. Our initial sample includes all firms on the Institutional Brokers Estimate System (I/B/E/S) database and security return data on the daily CRSP file for the years 1994 through 2003.</p> / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

This dissertation consists of two chapters. The first chapter examines the role of growth options on stock return continuation. Growth options are both difficult to value and risky. Daniel, Hirshleifer and Subrahmanyam (1998) argue that higher momentum profits earned by high market-to-book firms stem from investors' higher overconfidence due to the difficulty of valuing growth options. Johnson (2002) and Sagi and Seasholes (2007) offer an alternative rational explanation wherein growth options cause a wider spread in risk and expected returns between winners and losers. This paper suggests that firm-specific uncertainty helps disentangle these two different explanations. Specifically, the rational explanation is at work among firms with low firm specific uncertainty. However, the evidence is in favor of the behavioral explanation for firms with high firm specific uncertainty. This is consistent with the notion that investors are more prone to behavioral biases in the presence of firm-specific uncertainty and the resulting mispricings are less likely to be arbitraged away. The second chapter examines how investors capitalize differences of opinion when disagreements are common knowledge. We conduct an event study of the market's reaction to analysts' dispersed earnings forecast revisions. We find that investors take differences of opinion into account and do not exhibit an optimism bias. Our findings indicate that the overpricing of stocks with high forecast dispersion is not due to investors' tendency to overweight optimistic expectations, but rather due to investor credulity regarding analysts' incentives. Our findings support the notion that assets may become mispriced when rational investors face structural uncertainties as proposed by Brav and Heaton (2002). / Ph. D.