Financial markets have many different key actors, but one of the most important ones are the financial analysts. They are considered as experts in gathering and disseminating the information that firms produce, to those that seek it, such as stock recommendations and reports on firms. Related to this is a growing interest in society toward disclosures in regards of CSR as well as ESG. There has been considerable discussion in academia of whether or not CSR can be considered to be value relevant. This is a question which relate to both institutional and legitimacy perspectives in terms of theory, but also discussions in regards to agency and stakeholder theory as well:   Has value relevance of CSR disclosures increased in stock recommendations for the Nordic markets?   Thereby, the main purpose of this thesis is to find out whether or not there has been a shifting view of CSR over time, which would be evidenced in an increasing legitimization of CSR in terms of an increasing value-relevance to financial analysts. This would also be related to a shifting institutional logic, whereby it would be possible to relate to a shift in the view of the firm and its role in society. This is both looked at purely from the starting point of the dataset to the end point, but also for two different periods of time, so as to test if there is a different view of the issue after the financial crisis. In addition to this main purpose, this thesis furthermore sets out to answer whether CSR is value-relevant or not in different subsegments, such as nations, industries and the different types of recommendations that exist.   To answer the research question, an objectivist and positivist stance is taken, which subsequently leads the authors to utilize quantitative methods and statistical analysis to the data. Here, different panel models are fitted to the data to account effects that exist within it. To explain the findings, a theoretical framework is built upon three different levels: societal, firm and individual level. Here, on the societal level theories such as institutional theory as well as legitimacy theory are dealt with. On the firm level, agency theory and stakeholder theory as well as theoretical views of CSR forms the basis, and the individual level deals with theory related to the financial analyst.   In looking at the results and the analysis, one cannot draw the conclusion that there has been a shifting view of the value-relevance of CSR. Financial analysts appear to not find it value-relevant in issuing their stock recommendations, except for two cases: namely in terms of the industrial sector Basic Materials and the Buy recommendations. In terms of Basic Materials, it appears to be value-relevant in a positive manner. In regards to the Buy recommendation, it appears to have a negative effect on the value-relevance. All in all, this thesis cannot find evidence for a value-relevance of CSR to financial analysts in the Nordic markets. Essentially, the view of it appears to be pessimistic.

This dissertation examines the general research issue of whether the components of earnings are informative and specifically 1) how analysts consider earnings components when predicting future earnings and 2) whether the information content in, and analysts’ use of, earnings components have changed through time. Although earnings components have predictive value for future earnings based on each component’s persistence, extant research provides only a limited understanding of whether and how analysts consider this when forecasting. Using an integrated income statement and balance sheet framework to estimate the persistence of earnings components, I first establish that disaggregation based on the earnings components framework in this study is helpful to predict future earnings and helps explains contemporaneous returns. I then find evidence suggesting that although analysts consider the persistence of various earnings components, they do not fully integrate this information into their forecasts. Interestingly, analysts appear to be selective in their incorporation of the information in earnings components, seeming to ignore information from components indicating lower persistence, which results in higher forecast errors. Conversely, when a firm’s income is concentrated in high persistence items, analysts appear to incorporate the information into their forecasts, reducing their forecast errors. I also report that the usefulness of components relative to aggregate earnings has dramatically and continuously increased over the past several decades, and contemporaneous returns appear to be much better explained by earnings components than aggregate earnings (than historically). Finally, the relation between analyst forecast errors and the differential persistence of earnings components has also declined over time, indicating that analysts appear to recognize the increasing importance of earnings components through time. / text

本研究探討分析師盈餘預測偏差程度是否受到景氣循環的影響。首先以美國股市大盤指數的漲跌趨勢判定景氣循環的高峰時點，並藉此區分景氣循環由上往下反轉與否之依據。其次，探討當景氣由上往下反轉時，分析師盈餘預測的偏差程度是否有明顯增加的現象。最後，探討預測該公司之分析師人數、公司盈餘變動程度、公司發生損失及分析師盈餘預測的分散程度與分析師盈餘預測偏差程度之相關性，於景氣由上往下反轉時期與景氣穩定成長時期是否會有顯著差異。 實證結果顯示：(1)分析師盈餘預測偏差程度的確會受到景氣循環的影響。當景氣由上往下反轉時，分析師未能掌握景氣循環的脈動，立即修正其盈餘預測，而是傾向發佈具樂觀性偏差的盈餘預測。(2)處於景氣由上往下反轉時期，預測該公司之分析師人數、公司發生損失及分析師預測盈餘分散程度對分析師盈餘預測的偏差程度之影響會產生強化效果。然而，本研究並無充足證據顯示，公司盈餘變動程度與分析師盈餘預測偏差程度之相關性會受到景氣由上往下反轉而有所不同。 / This study investigates whether business cycle affects bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. Based on NASDAQ market index, an economic sudden slump is selected for examining whether the bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts is more obvious during the period of the economic slump. On top of this, the association between the bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts and some economic factors including number of analysts following, change in earnings, firm loss and forecast dispersion in the economic sudden slump is also explored. The empirical results show that business cycle in analysts’ earnings forecasts indeed influences bias. When the economic sudden slump happens, analysts are not aware of business cycle’s fluctuation in time to revise their earnings forecasts; instead they trend to issue optimistic bias in earnings forecasts. In the economic sudden slump, the number of analysts following, firm loss and forecast dispersion deeply affect bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. However, this study does not find sufficient evidence that the association between change in earnings and bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts is more obvious during the period of economic sudden slump.

Corporate investment decisions are among the most important decisions of a firm. Internal capital markets play a key role in facilitating the allocation of capital resources in order to finance investment projects within diversified firms. This thesis investigates internal capital markets and its relationship with analysts earnings forecast errors in three countries with two distinct financial systems, namely, the market-based and bank-based financial system. Using segment level data for public listed companies in the UK, France and Germany between 2005 and 2010, we examine the operation and efficiency of internal capital markets in market- and bank-based systems. We also examine the impact of the financial crisis of 2008 on internal capital markets and analysts earnings forecasts errors, namely, the accuracy, bias and dispersion. The findings indicate internal capital markets actively facilitate the allocation of resources within diversified firms and, in general, operate inefficiently. Furthermore, internal capital markets appear to be more active in France compared with the UK. On the other hand, their role appears to be limited in Germany, as segments appear to rely more on their own resources and less on internal capital markets for investments. In addition, we find that internal capital market activity declines and efficiency improves during the financial crisis in UK. In contrast, there is no significant evidence to suggest that efficiency improves during the crisis in France or Germany. This research also finds some evidence to suggest internal capital markets operations aggravate firm complexity and, in turn, negatively affect short-term forecast accuracy in the UK. In addition to this, our analysis shows there is a positive relationship between the size of internal capital markets and dispersion in analysts earnings forecasts. In general, our study shows analysts are optimistic about firms future performance; however, the level of optimism significantly declines during the financial crisis. Lastly, we report a positive relationship between efficiency of internal capital markets and optimism in earnings forecasts.

Cette thèse de doctorat comprend trois essais relatifs au genre des analystes financiers. Les résultats empiriques de la première étude attestent d'une sous-représentation des femmes analystes et confirment que la culture nationale exerce un impact important sur la représentation des femmes chez les analystes financiers dans les pays européens étudiés. La deuxième étude montre que les analystes hommes sont plus susceptibles de formuler des recommandations innovantes que les analystes femmes, du fait d'une plus forte confiance en leur jugement. Enfin, les conclusions de la troisième étude montrent que les recommandations innovantes déclenchent des réactions plus fortes de la part des investisseurs, mais on ne note aucune différence de genre dans les réactions du marché à ces recommandations innovantes. Les conclusions empiriques de cette thèse complètent la littérature sur les analystes financiers, et plus particulièrement sur l'impact du genre dans la prise de décisions financières. / This PhD dissertation consists of three essays relating to gender concerns among financial analysts. The empirical results of the first study provide evidence for under-representation of female analysts and confirm that national culture exerts a material impact on female representation among financial analysts across European countries under study. In the second study, I document evidence that male analysts are more likely to issue innovative recommendations than female analysts, due to their relative overconfidence. Finally, the findings of third study suggest that innovative recommendations trigger larger market reactions but there is no gender difference in market reactions to innovative recommendations. The empirical findings of my dissertation complement prior literature on financial analysts, more specifically, gender-based difference in financial market decision making.

A presente pesquisa foi desenvolvida com o objetivo de avaliar o grau de acurácia dos modelos de avaliação baseado em informações contábeis e do preço-alvo indicado pelos analistas de mercado, quando comparados ao valor real da ação. Somado a este objetivo, o estudo busca verificar, via aplicação de questionário, a importância dos modelos de apreçamento contábeis e da contabilidade sob a ótica dos acadêmicos e dos analistas de mercado que atuam no Brasil. Para chegar às conclusões do trabalho, foram utilizadas abordagens qualitativas, através do envio de questionários a acadêmicos e analistas de mercado, e uma análise quantitativa que, por meio de testes estatísticos, buscou verificar qual dos resultados, dentre o indicado pelo Modelo de apreçamento contábil Ohlson-Juettner (OJ) e o fornecido pelos analistas de mercado, ficou mais próximo ao valor real da ação. Para a análise qualitativa, a amostra do estudo compreendeu alunos dos cursos de graduação e pós-graduação das áreas correlatas às finanças, e analistas de mercado que cobrem as empresas brasileiras listadas na Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros de São Paulo (BM&FBOVESPA). Na parte quantitativa, a amostra continha as empresas listadas no Índice Brasil (IBrX), com o banco de dados formado por informações financeiras no período de 2004 a 2011. Os resultados da pesquisa qualitativa indicaram conformidade entre os dois questionários de que os modelos de avaliação baseados em informações contábeis poderiam ser mais utilizados pelo mercado financeiro, assim como as áreas do conhecimento mais importantes para a formação do preço da ação são a administração, contabilidade e economia. Os testes estatísticos mostraram uma maior similaridade entre o valor da ação e o modelo de precificação contábil OJ quando comparado ao preço-alvo indicado pelos analistas de mercado, o que corrobora a opinião dos respondentes dos questionários de que os modelos de avaliação baseados em informações contábeis poderiam ser mais utilizados no mercado de capitais. / This research was developed to evaluate the degree of accuracy of accounting based valuation models and target price indicated by market analysts as compared to the actual value of the action. Added to this goal by questionnaire to verify the importance of accounting pricing models and accounting from the perspective of academics and analysts who work in Brazil. To reach the conclusions of the study, we used qualitative approaches, by sending questionnaires to academics and market analysts and quantitative analysis, which by statistical tests aimed to verify which of the results from the accounting based valuation model Ohlson-Juettner (OJ) or the results provided by market analysts was closer to the actual value of the action. The study sample for the qualitative part consisted of undergraduate students and graduate of the areas related to finance and market analysts covering Brazilian companies listed on the Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros de São Paulo (BM&FBOVESPA). In the quantitative part of the sample contained in Índice Brasil (IbrX) listed companies, the database consists of financial information for the period 2004 to 2011.The results of qualitative research indicated consistency between the two questionnaires that accounting based valuation models could be mostly used by financial markets as well as areas of knowledge most important for the formation of the share price are the administration, accounting and economics. Statistical tests showed a greater similarity between the stock price and accounting OJ pricing model when compared to the target price indicated by market analysts, which corroborates the opinion of the respondents that the accounting models could be used more in the capital markets.

O estudo investiga os efeitos da adoção obrigatória das IFRS sobre a qualidade do ambiente informacional e confirma a hipótese de que os incentivos econômicos associados aos fatores institucionais são mais relevantes do que os padrões contábeis para explicar a qualidade do ambiente informacional. Foi utilizada uma amostra de 15 países que não passaram por reformas significativas na estrutura de enforcement legal, proporcionando uma estratégia de identificação econométrica mais robusta. Os países analisados adotaram as IFRS em momentos diferentes a partir de 2006. Foram utilizadas quatro métricas de qualidade dos accruals e três métricas de performance dos analistas para operacionalizar a variável dependente qualidade do ambiente informacional. Além disso, foram utilizadas como variáveis mediadoras diversas características institucionais com potencial de afetar os incentivos à elaboração e divulgação de demonstrações financeiras. Os resultados indicam que a adoção obrigatória das IFRS afetou de forma negativa a qualidade dos accruals e a performance dos analistas. No entanto, esses resultados são contingentes à qualidade da infraestrutura institucional da jurisdição que adotou as IFRS como modelo contábil obrigatório. Os efeitos das IFRS foram significativamente mais positivos (ou menos negativos) para os países com origem legal common law, estrutura de enforcement legal mais forte, mercado de capitais mais desenvolvido, menor diferença entre padrões contábeis locais e padrões internacionais, maior grau de liberdade econômica, menor corrupção percebida e instituições mais sólidas. Foram realizados testes de robustez para verificar a sensibilidade desses resultados. Os resultados permaneceram qualitativamente iguais após serem aplicados diferentes critérios de amostragem, controlados os efeitos da crise financeira de 2008 e levado em conta o possível efeito aprendizado dos responsáveis pela elaboração e análise das demonstrações financeiras no primeiro ano de adoção. O estudo contribui com a literatura da área de contabilidade financeira e com os órgãos reguladores da indústria contábil ao fornecer evidências de que a adoção obrigatória das IFRS, quando não acompanhada por reformas econômicas e institucionais, não causará os benefícios informacionais esperados / This study investigates the effects of mandatory IFRS adoption on information environment quality and confirms the hypothesis that states that the reporting incentives related to institutional factors are more relevant than accounting standards in determining the quality of information environment. I exploit a sample of 15 countries that did not substantially change their enforcement mechanisms, providing a better identification strategy. The sample countries adopted IFRS at different moments from 2006. I use four measures of accruals quality and three measures of analysts\' performance in order to quantify the information environment variable. Moreover, I use several institutional factors that have the potential to affect reporting incentives as mediating variables. The results show that the mandatory IFRS adoption decreases both accruals quality and analysts\' performance. However, these finds depend on the institutional features of the country that adopted the IFRS mandatorily. The IFRS effects are significantly more positive (or less negative) in countries with common law origin, stronger legal enforcement, more developed capital market, fewer differences between prior local accounting standards and IFRS, greater economic freedom, lower corruption and better institutions. I perform robustness tests to check the sensitivity of the results. The results hold the same after changing sample criteria, controlling for the 2008 financial crisis and considering the financial reporting preparers and analysts\' learning curve in the first adoption. This study contributes to financial accounting literature and financial reporting regulators in the extent to which it provides evidence that the mandatory IFRS adoption without changing the economic and institutional environment will not generate the expected benefits in terms of higher financial reporting quality and better analysts\' performance

This paper investigates a potential cause of the observed growth in the magnitude of earnings response coefficients over time since 2001. I hypothesize that the growth is explained by increasing investor reliance on Wall Street analyst earnings per share (“EPS”) estimates to form their next-period EPS expectations. To test my hypothesis, I regress 3-day cumulative abnormal market returns following earnings announcements on an interaction term between the earnings surprise and the number of analyst EPS estimates along with several control variables. I ultimately find no evidence of increasing investor reliance on Wall Street analyst estimates. Furthermore, I fail to replicate the results of prior literature that found an upward trend in earnings response coefficients over time from 2001 to 2011. These contradictory results merit further investigation in future research.

I examine the effect analysts have on the price response to earnings announcements. To address this question, I exploit an exogenous shock to analyst coverage to show that, following the loss of an analyst, the market reaction to earnings announcements decreases. In cross-sectional analyses, I show that the magnitude of the negative effect is decreasing in information asymmetry and the likelihood that a firm’s earnings are used more for contracting purposes. I further show that the magnitude of the negative effect is increasing in the readability of the financial statements and financial reporting comparability. This study contributes to the literature by providing a deeper understanding of the effect analysts have on the pricing of information contained in earnings announcements. As such, the results of this study should be of interest to regulators, researchers, and investors.

本研究藉由探討公司盈餘的可預測性與財務分析師預測偏差性的關係，俾瞭解財務分析師獲取私有資訊的動機與預測偏差性的關係，本研究並擬進一步探討，當財務分析師預測資訊成為已公開資訊之時，市場上之投資者對於財務分析師此策略性的預測偏差性行為，是否具有辨識性，並能進一步的在股價中加以反應調整。經由實證結果，本研究獲致如下的結論: 1.財務分析師在短期的各年度預測值中，呈現不同程度的預測偏差性，但以整個樣本期間的長期平均而言，財務分析師並未呈顯著的預測偏差性。 2.公司盈餘可預測性愈低，財務分析師樂觀性預測偏差愈高。 3.公司規模愈大，財務分析師樂觀性預測偏差愈低。 4.公司產業別、內部持股比率、上市期間長短、市場風險與股票交易週轉率對於財務分析師預測偏差性不具有影響性。 5.就市場平均性而言，可完全反應調整財務分析師的預測偏差性。 6.市場上無法反應調整財務分析師對於低可預測性公司具較高程度的預測偏差性。