The extant academic literature considers enterprise risk management (ERM) to be the fundamental paradigm for managing the portfolio of risks confronting organizations. However, there is debate as to whether ERM actually enhances stakeholder value. This study investigates whether ERM is associated with increased earnings predictability and a lower risk of firm failure, two theoretical predications regarding ERM's impact on stakeholder value. My research utilizes the Security and Exchange Commission's (SEC) enhanced proxy statement disclosures as of February 28th, 2010 to measure ERM performance. Additionally, in order to quantify the operational construct, textual analysis is performed to develop a measure of ERM performance to be used in econometric analyses. The analyses presented in this paper investigate whether key predicted benefits of ERM are observable. Results support the proposition that ERM is associated with increased earnings predictability. Specifically, earnings and accruals are found to be more persistent for firms with better ERM performance. Additionally, analysts' earnings forecasts are more accurate in the presence of enhanced ERM performance. Results are inconclusive with regards to ERM's ability to influence the risk of firm failure during this study's sample period (i.e., 2007-2009). One explanation for this departure, the economic volatility during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, may make it difficult to empirically detect the relationship between ERM performance and the risk of firm failure. / Ph. D.

This dissertation examines the characterization of transient investors by financial analysts. Transient investors have been portrayed in the literature as either 1) informed investors or 2) poor monitors. No research to date, however, has examined how financial analysts, who are important information intermediaries, characterize transient investors. A view of transient investors through the lens of a financial analyst is obtained through examining how the presence of transient owners in a firm affects financial analysts' decision making. Specifically, this study examines how transient ownership affects both the propensity of analysts to herd when issuing earnings forecasts for a given firm as well as the incidence with which analysts revise their forecasts when the firm issues earnings guidance. Empirical tests show that financial analysts exhibit a greater propensity to herd when there are transient investors present. The proposed reason for this effect is analysts are herding due to reputational concerns. Further testing, however, does not show that the relation between transient ownership and analyst herding is owed to poor monitoring behavior of transient-owned firms. In contrast, evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that the firm information environment of transient-owned firms is an important cause of analyst herding. In summary, evidence is consistent with the informed investor portrayal of transient investors and there is no evidence indicating financial analysts view transient owners as poor monitors. Finally, when the decision of analysts to issue revised forecasts is examined, it is found that having a higher percentage of the firm owned by dedicated or long-term investors increased the propensity of analysts to issue a revised forecast. Thus, while my analysis is inconsistent with a poor monitoring portrayal of transient investors, results suggest that a dedicated investor base can enhance the perceived credibility of firm disclosures. / Ph. D.

Yes / This study uses the quality of coverage decisions as a new metric to evaluate the performance of star and non-star analysts. We find that the coverage decisions of star analysts are better predictors of returns than those of non-star analysts. The return predictability of star analysts’ coverage decisions is stronger for informationally opaque stocks. We further exploit the staggered short selling deregulations, Google’s withdrawal, and the anti-corruption campaign as three quasi-natural experiments that create plausibly exogenous variations in the quality of information environment. These experiments show that the predictive power of star analysts’ coverage decisions strengthens (weakens) following a sharp deterioration (improvement) in firms’ information environment, consistent with the notion that star analysts possess superior ability to identify mispriced stocks. Overall, star analysts make better coverage decisions and play a superior role as information intermediaries, especially in poor information environment.

Cette thèse s'intéresse au rôle des analystes financiers lors de la couverture des introductions en bourse dans un contexte international. Nous traitons de la valeur informationnelle des couvertures des analystes et de leur conséquence sur la performance à long terme des entreprises nouvellement introduites en bourse. Nous examinons si les recommandations des analystes financiers permettent de réduire le comportement irrationnel des investisseurs en situation de forte incertitude. Nous espérons qu'en réduisant les asymétries d'informations, les analystes financiers aident les investisseurs à mieux cibler la valeur de l'IPO. Cette thèse s'articule autour de deux parties : la première est consacrée au positionnement théorique et à nos hypothèses de recherche ; la seconde se focalise sur la vérification empirique d'un échantillon d'IPOs internationales (Etats-Unis, Angleterre, Allemagne et France) sur la période 1991 à 2005. Les résultats révèlent une sous performance des IPOs plus sévères pour les orphelines (sans couverture des analystes) que pour les non orphelines. Il apparaît que la couverture des analystes est importante pour les IPOs mais que le marché n'en perçoit pas toute la valeur. D'autres analyses soulignent que cette meilleure performance des non orphelines provient du nombre élevé de couvertures. Nous établissons que les recommandations des analystes sont significativement reliées à la performance à long terme des IPOs. Ainsi, nous vérifions le rôle crucial des analystes financiers dans la production et l'interprétation des informations. / This thesis explores the role of financial analysts' coverage on IPOs in an international context. We deal with the informational value of research coverage and the consequence on long run performance of newly public firms. We examine whether financial analyst recommendations allow alleviating the irrational investors' behaviour in the context of strong uncertainty. We expect that by reducing the information asymmetry, financial analyst recommendations help investors to define progressively the true value of the IPO. The thesis is organized in two main parts: the first part presents a survey of literature and define research hypothesis. The second part consists in an empirical validation of an international sample of IPOs (US, United Kingdom, Germany and France) over the 1991-2005 period. The results reveal that long run underperformance is much severe for orphans' IPOs (without financial recommendation) than non orphans' IPOs. The evidence suggests that analyst coverage is indeed important to issuing firm but the market do not fully incorporate the perceived value of this coverage. Further analysis reveals that this outperformance by non orphan stems from high coverage. We establish that analyst recommendations are significantly related to long run performance of IPOs. Hence, we corroborate the crucial role of financial analysts in producing and interpreting IPOs' financial releases.

A pesquisa apresenta um estudo sobre a superioridade dos analistas de mercado com relação aos modelos random walk na previsão de resultados futuros das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto a curto e longo prazo. A literatura tradicional indica superioridade irrestrita dos analistas de mercado sobre os modelos de séries temporais por conta das vantagens de tempo e informação desses agentes. No entanto, estudos recentes da literatura internacional apontam para a necessidade de reavaliação dessa superioridade indicando que, para determinadas características da empresa e principalmente para estimativas de longo prazo, não se verifica superioridade dos analistas com relação aos modelos de séries temporais. Partindo desses achados, essa pesquisa defende a TESE de que para o caso brasileiro a superioridade dos analistas não é irrestrita. Este trabalho avalia as previsões de lucro dos analistas e dos modelos random walk, simples e com crescimento, a curto e longo prazo, para as empresas brasileiras de capital aberto no período de 2010 a 2015. Os dados foram obtidos via plataforma da Thomson Reuters®, nas bases de dados do I/B/E/S® e Thomson Financial. Seguindo a literatura, foram utilizados testes de diferença de média. Como diferencial da pesquisa, foi realizada uma análise de dados em painel no sentido de permitir uma avaliação mais precisa sobre os determinantes da superioridade dos analistas para o caso brasileiro. Ainda, foi proposto um modelo de regressão linear simples para avaliar o conteúdo informacional das previsões dos analistas de mercado e dos modelos random walk. Os resultados indicam: i) maior acurácia de previsão paras os modelos random walk simples quando comparados com os modelos de random walk com crescimento; ii) para a amostra total, nota-se maior acurácia da previsão dos modelos random walk a curto e longo prazo, com superioridade dos analistas apenas para previsões com três meses de defasagem; iii) além da defasagem de previsão, a variabilidade dos lucros, a quantidade de analistas, a dispersão das estimativas dos analistas, o tamanho da empresa, o resultado positivo ou negativo, a listagem em índice de mercado e a idade da empresa no mercado de capitais são fatores que alteram a superioridade dos analistas para o caso brasileiro; iv) maior conteúdo informacional das previsões random walk para previsão de lucros futuros das empresas. Esses resultados são importantes nas decisões de investimento. Ainda, os achados são relevantes para pesquisas da área de finanças e contabilidade que utilizam essa variável para responder a diferentes questões de pesquisa, uma vez que, ao contrário do apontado pela literatura internacional, as evidências sugerem superioridade de previsão dos modelos random walk quando comparados às previsões dos analistas de mercado / The research presents a study regarding the superiority of market analysts in relation to the random walk models in the forecast of future results of Brazilian companies in the short and long term. The traditional literature indicates unrestricted superiority of market analysts on time series models because of the time and information advantages of these agents. However, recent studies in the international literature point to the need for a reassessment of this superiority, indicating that, for certain company characteristics and especially for long-term estimates, there is no superiority of analysts with respect to time series models. Based on these findings, this research advocates that in the case of Brazil, the superiority of analysts is not unrestricted. This paper evaluates the analysts\' forecasts and the random walk models, both simple and with growth, in the short and long term, for Brazilian publicly traded companies during the period from 2010 to 2015. Data was obtained via the Thomson Reuters® platform, in the I/B/E/S® and Thomson Financial®databases. Following the literature, mean-comparison tests (t-test) were used. As a research differential, a panel data analysis was carried out in order to allow a more precise evaluation of the determinants of analysts\' superiority for the case of Brazil. Furthermore, a simple linear regression model was proposed to evaluate the informational content of market analysts\' forecasts and random walk models. The results indicate: i) greater accuracy of prediction for the simple random walk models, when compared to the random walk models with growth ii) that for the total sample, we can see a greater accuracy of the forecast of random walk models in the short and long term, with analyst superiority only for forecasts with a 3-month lag; (iii) in addition to forecast lag, profit variability, analyst size, dispersion of analysts\' estimates, company size, positive or negative result, market index listing and age of the company in the capital market are factors that alter the superiority of the analysts in the case of Brazil; iv) greater informational content of the random walk forecasts for the prediction of future companies\' profits. These results are important for investment decisions. Moreover, the findings are relevant for research in the field of finance and accounting that use this variable to answer different research questions, since, contrary to the international literature, the evidence suggests forecasting superiority of the random walk models when compared to the market analysts\' forecasts.

A pesquisa apresenta um estudo sobre a superioridade dos analistas de mercado com relação aos modelos random walk na previsão de resultados futuros das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto a curto e longo prazo. A literatura tradicional indica superioridade irrestrita dos analistas de mercado sobre os modelos de séries temporais por conta das vantagens de tempo e informação desses agentes. No entanto, estudos recentes da literatura internacional apontam para a necessidade de reavaliação dessa superioridade indicando que, para determinadas características da empresa e principalmente para estimativas de longo prazo, não se verifica superioridade dos analistas com relação aos modelos de séries temporais. Partindo desses achados, essa pesquisa defende a TESE de que para o caso brasileiro a superioridade dos analistas não é irrestrita. Este trabalho avalia as previsões de lucro dos analistas e dos modelos random walk, simples e com crescimento, a curto e longo prazo, para as empresas brasileiras de capital aberto no período de 2010 a 2015. Os dados foram obtidos via plataforma da Thomson Reuters®, nas bases de dados do I/B/E/S® e Thomson Financial. Seguindo a literatura, foram utilizados testes de diferença de média. Como diferencial da pesquisa, foi realizada uma análise de dados em painel no sentido de permitir uma avaliação mais precisa sobre os determinantes da superioridade dos analistas para o caso brasileiro. Ainda, foi proposto um modelo de regressão linear simples para avaliar o conteúdo informacional das previsões dos analistas de mercado e dos modelos random walk. Os resultados indicam: i) maior acurácia de previsão paras os modelos random walk simples quando comparados com os modelos de random walk com crescimento; ii) para a amostra total, nota-se maior acurácia da previsão dos modelos random walk a curto e longo prazo, com superioridade dos analistas apenas para previsões com três meses de defasagem; iii) além da defasagem de previsão, a variabilidade dos lucros, a quantidade de analistas, a dispersão das estimativas dos analistas, o tamanho da empresa, o resultado positivo ou negativo, a listagem em índice de mercado e a idade da empresa no mercado de capitais são fatores que alteram a superioridade dos analistas para o caso brasileiro; iv) maior conteúdo informacional das previsões random walk para previsão de lucros futuros das empresas. Esses resultados são importantes nas decisões de investimento. Ainda, os achados são relevantes para pesquisas da área de finanças e contabilidade que utilizam essa variável para responder a diferentes questões de pesquisa, uma vez que, ao contrário do apontado pela literatura internacional, as evidências sugerem superioridade de previsão dos modelos random walk quando comparados às previsões dos analistas de mercado / The research presents a study regarding the superiority of market analysts in relation to the random walk models in the forecast of future results of Brazilian companies in the short and long term. The traditional literature indicates unrestricted superiority of market analysts on time series models because of the time and information advantages of these agents. However, recent studies in the international literature point to the need for a reassessment of this superiority, indicating that, for certain company characteristics and especially for long-term estimates, there is no superiority of analysts with respect to time series models. Based on these findings, this research advocates that in the case of Brazil, the superiority of analysts is not unrestricted. This paper evaluates the analysts\' forecasts and the random walk models, both simple and with growth, in the short and long term, for Brazilian publicly traded companies during the period from 2010 to 2015. Data was obtained via the Thomson Reuters® platform, in the I/B/E/S® and Thomson Financial®databases. Following the literature, mean-comparison tests (t-test) were used. As a research differential, a panel data analysis was carried out in order to allow a more precise evaluation of the determinants of analysts\' superiority for the case of Brazil. Furthermore, a simple linear regression model was proposed to evaluate the informational content of market analysts\' forecasts and random walk models. The results indicate: i) greater accuracy of prediction for the simple random walk models, when compared to the random walk models with growth ii) that for the total sample, we can see a greater accuracy of the forecast of random walk models in the short and long term, with analyst superiority only for forecasts with a 3-month lag; (iii) in addition to forecast lag, profit variability, analyst size, dispersion of analysts\' estimates, company size, positive or negative result, market index listing and age of the company in the capital market are factors that alter the superiority of the analysts in the case of Brazil; iv) greater informational content of the random walk forecasts for the prediction of future companies\' profits. These results are important for investment decisions. Moreover, the findings are relevant for research in the field of finance and accounting that use this variable to answer different research questions, since, contrary to the international literature, the evidence suggests forecasting superiority of the random walk models when compared to the market analysts\' forecasts.

本研究欲探討分析師推薦對管理當局所釋出資訊量之關聯性，當分析師越強力推薦公司時，公司的管理當局將願意提供較多的資訊給分析師做為預測的依據，則分析師對公司盈餘的預測也越準確。研究結果發現給予公司較佳推薦的分析師，預測準確性確實比給予公司較差推薦的分析師高。 之後再利用台灣證券暨期貨市場發展基金會設立的資訊揭露評鑑系統，探討資訊較為透明的公司，因為管理當局自願提供較多的資訊，即便分析師強力推薦，可能也無法得到額外的資訊，所以分析師推薦的效果應比資訊揭露較不透明的受評公司差。實證結果發現資訊揭露較透明的受評公司，分析師的推薦效果確實比資訊訊揭露較不透明的受評公司差。 / This thesis examines directly whether that managers provide more (less) information to analysts with more (less) favorable stock recommendations, based on the Barron et al. model (1998). Prior study documents the relative forecast accuracy of analysts before and after a recommendation issuance under the assumption that increases (decreases) in management-provided information will increase (decrease) analysts’ relative forecast accuracy. In contrast, this paper directly measure amount of information based on Barron et al. model (1998), and examine whether amount of information varies between pre- and post- a recommendation. Contrary to our prediction, the results show no significant difference in amount of information after and before recommendation issuance. However, we do find that analysts issuing more favorable recommendations experience a greater increase in their relative forecast accuracy compared with analysts with less favorable recommendations. In addition, we also find that the association is smaller for firms with higher information transparency than those with lower information transparency. The information transparency is measure by whether firms are listed in Taiwan Securities & Futures Information Center’s Information Disclosure and Transparence Ranking System (therefore TSFIC).

Este trabalho investiga a relação entre as revisões das projeções de lucro por ação e do seu preço-alvo, assim como das recomendações feitas pelos analistas de investimentos, especificamente os de ações, e o comportamento dos gestores de fundos de investimento. Para o desenvolvimento dessa pesquisa, foi feita uma revisão bibliográfica das principais teorias que tratam da ideia de investimento, assim como de questões sobre a gestão dos fundos e discussões acerca dos motivos e impactos das informações emitidas pelos analistas. Analisando uma amostra que compreende a composição trimestral da carteira dos fundos de investimento classificados na categoria ações da ANBIMA, entre o terceiro trimestre de 2009 e o primeiro trimestre de 2014, a hipótese principal testada é a de que os gestores seguem as informações emitidas pelos analistas. Para tal análise foi aplicado um modelo econométrico, com o uso de dados em painel, para avaliar como as revisões das recomendações e das projeções de lucro por ação e do retorno implícito, sendo essse calculado a partir do preço-alvo estimado pelos analistas, influenciam a variação da participação trimestral dos ativos nas carteiras dos fundos de investimentos. Os resultados apontam que, na maior parte dos tipos de fundos, os gestores tendem a seguir mais as revisões de recomendações do que as outras, sendo mais presente tal comportamento quando se tem um downgrade das revisões, embora aparente que em tipos específicos, a revisão do lucro por ação é a que influencia em maior intensidade o comportamento dos gestores. Ainda mais, gestores ativos, especificamente do tipo de fundo IBrX tendem a seguir tais recomendações de modo mais intenso que os gestores passivos de tal tipo. Nota-se também que a discordância das opinões dos analistas aparenta influenciar negativamente o comportamento dos gestores, ou seja, quanto mais discordância, menos o gestor tende a seguir o consenso das revisões, especificamente as de lucro por ação e do retorno implícito. Por fim, embora os gestores tendam a seguir mais as revisões de recomendações do que as das projeções de lucro por ação e retorno implícito, são as revisões das projeções, quando seguidas, que aparentam gerar retornos positivos para os trades dos gestores. / This work assesses the relation between the revisions of the forecasts of earning per share and target price, as well as the recommendations made by the investments analysts, specifically the stocks analysts, and the trades of the manager of investment funds. To do so was done a literature review which approached the main theories of investment, even as, some aspects of the funds management and discussions about the reasons and impacts of the information issued by the analysts. Assessing one sample, which involves the quarterly composition of the portfolio of the investment funds classified in the category stocks, according ANBIMA, between the third quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2014, the main hypothesis tested is that the funds managers follow the information issued by the analysts. For this purpose, an econometric model using panel data was applied to assess how the revisions of the recommendations and the projections of earning per share and the implied returns, being this calculated from the target price estimated by the analysts, influence the variation of the participation of assets in the portfolio of the investiments funds between the quarters. The results show that, in the most part of kinds of funds, the managers tend to follow more the recommendations, being more present this behavior when there is a downgrade, although appears that in some kinds, the earning per share revision is that which influence with more intensity the manager\'s behavior. Moreover, active managers, specifically of IBrX funds, tend to follow the recommendation revisions with more intensity than the passive managers of this kind of fund. It\'s observable that the disagreement of opinions between analysts seems to influence negatively the managers\' behavior, this is, more disagreement, less the manager tends to follow the consensus of the revisions, specifically the earning per share and implied return revision. Lastly, although the managers tend to follow more the recommendation revisions than the projections of earning per share and the implied return, are the revisions of the projections, when followed, that appear to generate positive returns to the managers\' trades.

Este trabalho investiga a relação entre as revisões das projeções de lucro por ação e do seu preço-alvo, assim como das recomendações feitas pelos analistas de investimentos, especificamente os de ações, e o comportamento dos gestores de fundos de investimento. Para o desenvolvimento dessa pesquisa, foi feita uma revisão bibliográfica das principais teorias que tratam da ideia de investimento, assim como de questões sobre a gestão dos fundos e discussões acerca dos motivos e impactos das informações emitidas pelos analistas. Analisando uma amostra que compreende a composição trimestral da carteira dos fundos de investimento classificados na categoria ações da ANBIMA, entre o terceiro trimestre de 2009 e o primeiro trimestre de 2014, a hipótese principal testada é a de que os gestores seguem as informações emitidas pelos analistas. Para tal análise foi aplicado um modelo econométrico, com o uso de dados em painel, para avaliar como as revisões das recomendações e das projeções de lucro por ação e do retorno implícito, sendo essse calculado a partir do preço-alvo estimado pelos analistas, influenciam a variação da participação trimestral dos ativos nas carteiras dos fundos de investimentos. Os resultados apontam que, na maior parte dos tipos de fundos, os gestores tendem a seguir mais as revisões de recomendações do que as outras, sendo mais presente tal comportamento quando se tem um downgrade das revisões, embora aparente que em tipos específicos, a revisão do lucro por ação é a que influencia em maior intensidade o comportamento dos gestores. Ainda mais, gestores ativos, especificamente do tipo de fundo IBrX tendem a seguir tais recomendações de modo mais intenso que os gestores passivos de tal tipo. Nota-se também que a discordância das opinões dos analistas aparenta influenciar negativamente o comportamento dos gestores, ou seja, quanto mais discordância, menos o gestor tende a seguir o consenso das revisões, especificamente as de lucro por ação e do retorno implícito. Por fim, embora os gestores tendam a seguir mais as revisões de recomendações do que as das projeções de lucro por ação e retorno implícito, são as revisões das projeções, quando seguidas, que aparentam gerar retornos positivos para os trades dos gestores. / This work assesses the relation between the revisions of the forecasts of earning per share and target price, as well as the recommendations made by the investments analysts, specifically the stocks analysts, and the trades of the manager of investment funds. To do so was done a literature review which approached the main theories of investment, even as, some aspects of the funds management and discussions about the reasons and impacts of the information issued by the analysts. Assessing one sample, which involves the quarterly composition of the portfolio of the investment funds classified in the category stocks, according ANBIMA, between the third quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2014, the main hypothesis tested is that the funds managers follow the information issued by the analysts. For this purpose, an econometric model using panel data was applied to assess how the revisions of the recommendations and the projections of earning per share and the implied returns, being this calculated from the target price estimated by the analysts, influence the variation of the participation of assets in the portfolio of the investiments funds between the quarters. The results show that, in the most part of kinds of funds, the managers tend to follow more the recommendations, being more present this behavior when there is a downgrade, although appears that in some kinds, the earning per share revision is that which influence with more intensity the manager\'s behavior. Moreover, active managers, specifically of IBrX funds, tend to follow the recommendation revisions with more intensity than the passive managers of this kind of fund. It\'s observable that the disagreement of opinions between analysts seems to influence negatively the managers\' behavior, this is, more disagreement, less the manager tends to follow the consensus of the revisions, specifically the earning per share and implied return revision. Lastly, although the managers tend to follow more the recommendation revisions than the projections of earning per share and the implied return, are the revisions of the projections, when followed, that appear to generate positive returns to the managers\' trades.

This master’s thesis has aimed to contribute and fill the gap in existing studies and research where there has been a lack of knowledge about the relationship between credit ratings and stock recommendations. The purpose of this study is to analyse whether credit ratings from credit rating agencies affect financial analysts’ recommendations, as well as the opposite, if financial analysts’ recommendations affect credit rating agencies' credit ratings. The thesis has used quantitative methods with both panel data regressions where credit rating has been the dependent variable, as well as logistic regressions where recommendation has been the dependent variable. The data set has been based on firms Moody’s has issued credit ratings to between the years 1994 and 2016. The thesis’ results show that both the credit ratings from credit rating agencies and recommendations from financial analysts do indeed affect each other. This concludes that the two-way mirror between credit ratings and recommendations does exist.