Il mio lavoro analizza empiricamente la relazione fra IDE (stock e flussi in uscita) ed esportazioni per 75 paesi fra il 2001 e il 2012. Nel primo capitolo vengono esaminate la letteratura economica sulle determinanti degli IDE e la questione della complementarità o sostituibilità fra IDE e commercio internazionale; nel secondo capitolo vengono descritti alcuni elementi di Analisi Reticolare (AR) e, infine, il terzo e quarto capitolo, analizzano empiricamente l’evoluzione delle strutture di IDE e delle esportazioni e le loro determinanti. I risultati confermano che (1) solo una piccola parte degli IDE e delle esportazioni possibili è in atto. Questa circostanza rende il fenomeno della globalizzazione poco realistico, facendo emergere alcuni attori centrali (i.e. US, China; Germany); (2) tradizionali fattori gravitazionali, come il PIL e la distanza, determinano significativamente gli IDE; la lingua comune è anche significativamente correlata agli IDE; i coefficienti delle altre variabili sono meno stabili; (3) le esportazioni e gli IDE sono strutturalmente simili e livelli precedenti di esportazioni sono negativamente correlati con gli IDE. I risultati suggeriscono sostituibilità fra le esportazioni e gli IDE confermando la contraddittorietà della questione. / My thesis deals with the empirical analysis of the relationship between FDI (outflows and outstocks) and exports for 75 countries between 2001 and 2012. In the first chapter I review the economic literature on FDI determinants, hence I detail the complementarity/substitutability between FDI and trade; in the second chapter I describe some Social Network Analysis tools and finally in the third and fourth chapters I investigate empirically the evolution of the structures of FDI and exports and their determinants. Results show that (1) a large part of world FDI and exports is excluding all “potential” FDI flows and a small quota of all possible links has taken place, making the globalisation phenomenon far away to be realistic with few central players (i.e. US, China, Germany); (2) traditional gravity factors, such as GDP and distance, significantly determine FDI; common language is also significantly related to FDI; the coefficients for the other variables are less stable; (3) exports and FDI are similarly structured and previous levels of exports negatively affect FDI, suggesting the substitutability between FDI and exports and the puzzling issue of FDI and trade relationship.

Master of Arts / Department of Economics / Peri da Silva / Rose (2004) reports that GATT/WTO membership produces no positive effects on international trade. This is a remarkable determination given the widespread belief in academic and policy circles that the WTO successfully promotes trade flows by reducing barriers to international trade. Empirical literature measuring the GATT/WTO trade effects has produced notably diverse results since Rose's (2004) paper. This report introduces the history of GATT/WTO and describes the GATT/WTO’s aim to promote trade using multilateral rounds of trade negotiations. It confirms that the efforts toward trade liberalization made by the GATT/WTO are partially achieved by tariff reductions and other trade obligations. In discussing the literature related to Rose’s surprising results, we argue that the gravity model employed by Rose (2004) is not theoretically sound since it omits multilateral resistance terms and fails to capture unobserved bilateral heterogeneity. However, we find that even an accurate specification gravity model that controls multilateral resistance, unobserved bilateral heterogeneity, and individual regional trade agreement effect cannot fully account for Rose’s GATT/WTO trade effects findings. The present report suggests that a new approach, specifically the nonparametric method used by Chang and Lee (2011), may offer sound guidance for future research attempting to understand Rose’s mysterious findings.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Agricultural Economics / Glynn Tonsor / Few things facing the U.S. meat industry in recent years have garnered more attention of economic researchers than food safety events, policies, and mitigation efforts. This dissertation has two main essays and themes focusing on both domestic and international food safety issues. Contributing new insights to this situation, the impacts of FSIS (Food Safety Inspection Service) recalls on consumer meat demand in the United States are estimated by a series of Rotterdam models in the first study using monthly grocery-scanner data. Multiple model specifications are employed to further assess effects across meat products and geographic regions. Recall variables are constructed separately as beef E. coli recall, beef non-E. coli recall, pork recall, and poultry recall variables to facilitate finer assessment of demand impacts. Results suggest beef E. coli recalls significantly reduce the demand for ground beef contemporaneously among most, but not all, regions in the United States. The ultimate finding of food safety effects neither being fully homogeneous nor entirely heterogeneous warrants appreciation. In order to protect domestic consumers and meat industries from potential food safety hazards, some member countries of the WTO implement sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures as non-tariff barriers. The second study focuses on investigating the determinants of red meat trade patterns and associated impacts of SPS regulations. This analysis uses multiple product-level gravity equation models and PPML (Poisson Pesudo Maximum-likelihood estimators to overcome sample selection bias and heteroscedasticity and examine the trade relationship among other factors. Results indicate that, trade values of frozen beef and pork are significantly reduced by the implementation of SPS measures. Also, the spillover effects across meat products on trade were detected which provides essential information to the meat industry, policy makers, and trade representatives.

This dissertation considers the interconnections between trade and transportation. Through various theoretical and empirical analyses, I provide novel evidence of the simultaneity of trade and transportation, of spillover effects across integrated transport markets, and of the influence of the international transport sector on trade policy effectiveness and natural disaster induced trade disruptions. In the first substantive chapter, I develop a model of international trade and transportation. Accounting for the joint-production present in the international container shipping industry, I illustrate that freight rates adjust to differences in the international demands for transport and can result in balanced or imbalanced equilibrium trade in the presence of asymmetric freight rates. The empirical results exhibit the simultaneity of international trade and transportation costs and show that the dependence of transport costs on the trade imbalance can lead to spillover effects across bilateral export and import markets. In the second substantive chapter, I investigate the effects of maritime trade policy on bilateral trade in the presence of trade imbalances. Using the previously developed model, I show that the trade elasticities with respect to carrier costs vary systematically across transport markets, bilateral trade imbalances and differentiated products. Empirically, I estimate the varying effects of an EU environmental policy on U.S.-EU trade and provide strong evidence in support of the theoretical results. In the third substantive chapter, I analyze the dynamics and spatial distribution of the trade effects induced by natural disasters. I develop a spatial gravity model of international trade and apply the model to monthly US port level trade data. Empirically, I estimate the dynamic evolution of trade effects caused by Hurricane Katrina differentiating trade disruptions at the local port level. The estimates point to the static and dynamic resilience of international trade. While ports closest to Katrina's epicenter experience significant short-run reductions that can be of permanent nature, international trade handled by nearby ports rises in response to this disaster, both in the short- and in the long-run. Overall, the analysis underlines the significance of local infrastructure networks to reduce the devastation inflicted by natural disasters. This dissertation includes previously unpublished co-authored material.

An efficient air transport system is an important part of social and economic development of Southern African Development Community (SADC). Efficient intra-SADC air service connections enhance regional integration, access to the global economy, international tourism and contribute towards the vision to establish the African Economic Community by 2034. SADC, in July 1998, embarked on liberalisation of the regional civil aviation sector in order to enhance the efficiency of air transport services. In the United States of America and European Union, the liberalisation of air transport has transformed civil aviation networks. The fragmentation of air service connections on the intra-SADC network in the midst of the liberalisation process is symptomatic of a poor implementation strategy coupled with air transport market imperfections. The purpose of this thesis is to examine, understand and explain the factors that influence the disintegration of the intra-SADC air transport network .The aim is to identify how regional air transport services can be transformed to meet the social and economic demands of the region. This research adopts network theory, as the conceptual framework of the investigation. Assuming a graph approaching maximal connection as the sought after state of affairs for SADC; this study benchmarked the post liberalisation network structure to the regional economic communities of ASEAN and MERCOSUR. The aim of the benchmarking is to identify the extend of the differences in air transport network in those two regions, resulting from the policies adopted and to establish how the SADC policies may be improved and implemented more efficiently. The findings of the study are that, in comparison to the two developing regions, SADC’s liberalisation measures have failed. The study developed and evaluated an econometric model which analysed demand patterns on the intra-SADC passenger air transport network. Although low levels of passenger demand seem to characterise the majority of SADC city-pairs, the study identified nodes with sufficient demand to justify direct connections which would in turn reduce network fragmentation. This research also establishes that the absence of a realistic detailed roadmap, an ill-defined programme of action and inadequate resources contributed to the failure of SADC’s liberalisation strategy. In its final sections, this study proposes an ideal demand-driven network configuration and offers specific recommendations to SADC member states for that network to be functional. The proposed network improves network connectivity from the current poor levels, where a connectivity measure of 15% suggests underdevelopment, to levels over 40%. The study however, acknowledges that air transport liberalisation does not necessarily guarantee equitable distribution of network efficiency in developing regions. There are communities that cannot sustain commercially viable air service connections without economic subvention, probably in the form of the Public Service Obligation (PSO) programme adopted in the EU.

<p>Detta är en undersökning av Sveriges statsbesöks effekt på Sveriges export. För att mäta effekten använder jag mig av en empirisk modell, den så kallade handelsgravitationsmodellen. Jag finner att det är svårt att hitta starka och statistiskt signifikanta bevis på att Sveriges statsbesök har en positiv effekt på exporten. När man isolerar för statsbesök i Europa utanför Norden finner jag till och med tecken på att de kan ha en negativ effekt. Jag har även jämfört effekten av Sveriges statsbesök med effekten av Storbritanniens och funnit att Sverige har en generellt lägre effekt än Storbritannien, oavsett vilken modell som används.</p>

This thesis investigates in what way trade flows in Europe have been altered and differ for countries belonging to a preferential trade agreement as well as a common currency area. More specifically, how exports among the European countries are affected by memberships with the European Union and the EMU. A total of 72 countries have been chosen which represents the main trading partners between the EU and the rest of the world. Out of these 72 countries, 25 represent EU members which include 12 EMU member countries. The econometric analysis employ a gravity model with 18 variables in order to determine their impact on trade flows. This is done through a regression with a log-log equation where the dependent variable is export. The other variables included are chosen to explain export flows among the EU members as well as their trade with EMU countries and the rest of the world. Furthermore, variables representing trade affinities are included to determine whether or not they have a significant effect on trade. The regression is divided into four time periods in order to more easily determine how the trade pattern in Europe have altered from the establishment of the EU and the EMU. The first time period represent an early state of EU membership, the second a mature state of EU membership, the third when EU was reformed and the fourth an early state of EMU membership. The regression results illustrate that the majority of the selected variables are significant but most importantly that the trade affinity variables are proven to have an impact on trade flows. The results also show that trade has increased and that in the case of EU membership it is more profitable to join than to remain outside. Moreover, the result show in par-ticular that countries that belong to the EMU have a stronger orientation of their exports to the rest of the world then other EU countries. For the latter, the European market is of prime importance.

Detta är en undersökning av Sveriges statsbesöks effekt på Sveriges export. För att mäta effekten använder jag mig av en empirisk modell, den så kallade handelsgravitationsmodellen. Jag finner att det är svårt att hitta starka och statistiskt signifikanta bevis på att Sveriges statsbesök har en positiv effekt på exporten. När man isolerar för statsbesök i Europa utanför Norden finner jag till och med tecken på att de kan ha en negativ effekt. Jag har även jämfört effekten av Sveriges statsbesök med effekten av Storbritanniens och funnit att Sverige har en generellt lägre effekt än Storbritannien, oavsett vilken modell som används.

This bachelor thesis aims to estimate Sweden’s export potential towards South-Korea since initial data indicates that Sweden has from 1997 up until 2005 been exporting less to South-Korea when compared to, in general, OECD. Furthermore, South-Korea seems to be a low prioritized market for Swedish firms in the East-Asian region. As many before us, we have used a basic gravity model, including GDP and distance in kilometer has been used as explanatory variables for the observed trade value. The dummy variable land-locked, to estimate trade potential for 15 commodity groups. Sweden was set to be the exporting country, South-Korea the importing country together with all the other OECD members, which were used as points of reference. The outcome of the gravity regression shows that distance and the dummy variable landlocked (if a country does not have access to open water) have a very strong relationship to the observed export data. However, GDP was proven to have a very weak relationship to the observed export data thus making the estimation process of trade potential for all, except one, commodity group biased. The gravity model has been widely criticized for inflating export potential due to misspecification a problem that we experienced when running our regression. Thus, from this study no strong conclusions can be drawn concerning the trade potential from Sweden to South-Korea.

An efficient air transport system is an important part of social and economic development of Southern African Development Community (SADC). Efficient intra-SADC air service connections enhance regional integration, access to the global economy, international tourism and contribute towards the vision to establish the African Economic Community by 2034. SADC, in July 1998, embarked on liberalisation of the regional civil aviation sector in order to enhance the efficiency of air transport services. In the United States of America and European Union, the liberalisation of air transport has transformed civil aviation networks. The fragmentation of air service connections on the intra-SADC network in the midst of the liberalisation process is symptomatic of a poor implementation strategy coupled with air transport market imperfections. The purpose of this thesis is to examine, understand and explain the factors that influence the disintegration of the intra-SADC air transport network .The aim is to identify how regional air transport services can be transformed to meet the social and economic demands of the region. This research adopts network theory, as the conceptual framework of the investigation. Assuming a graph approaching maximal connection as the sought after state of affairs for SADC; this study benchmarked the post liberalisation network structure to the regional economic communities of ASEAN and MERCOSUR. The aim of the benchmarking is to identify the extend of the differences in air transport network in those two regions, resulting from the policies adopted and to establish how the SADC policies may be improved and implemented more efficiently. The findings of the study are that, in comparison to the two developing regions, SADC’s liberalisation measures have failed. The study developed and evaluated an econometric model which analysed demand patterns on the intra-SADC passenger air transport network. Although low levels of passenger demand seem to characterise the majority of SADC city-pairs, the study identified nodes with sufficient demand to justify direct connections which would in turn reduce network fragmentation. This research also establishes that the absence of a realistic detailed roadmap, an ill-defined programme of action and inadequate resources contributed to the failure of SADC’s liberalisation strategy. In its final sections, this study proposes an ideal demand-driven network configuration and offers specific recommendations to SADC member states for that network to be functional. The proposed network improves network connectivity from the current poor levels, where a connectivity measure of 15% suggests underdevelopment, to levels over 40%. The study however, acknowledges that air transport liberalisation does not necessarily guarantee equitable distribution of network efficiency in developing regions. There are communities that cannot sustain commercially viable air service connections without economic subvention, probably in the form of the Public Service Obligation (PSO) programme adopted in the EU.