The main goals of this dissertation are to analyze balance of payments and foreign exchange rate and to examine mutual relations between these two concepts. The first part describes basic terms related to international finance. These terms are structure of balance of payments, foreign exchange rate and exchange rate regimes. The second part presents four selected foreign economics (Japan, South Africa, Paraguay, Dominican republic) which will be subdue to the analysis. The third and final part is devoted to the regression analysis. Relations between balance of payments and foreign exchange rate are analyzed by the method of ordinary least squares. Necessary data was gained from the IMF server.

Thesis analyzes different indicators of competitiveness in period before and after adopting of euro in Slovakia. First chapter contains theoretical background, defines competitiveness and methods of its measuring. Second chapter analyzes development of macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, inflation, government debt and deficit. Aim od third chapter is to evaluate competitiveness of Slovakia, using different competitiveness reports and this chapter also contains analysis of unit labor costs, labor productivity and real effective exchange rate. Fourth chapter is analyzing different exchange rate regimes and compares impact of financial crisis on Slovak and Czech economy due to the fact, that countries had different exchange rate regimes in this period.

This thesis aims to contribute in the field of exchange rate determination. Firstly, it sums results of previous studies (theoretical as well as empirical ones). Consequently, it investigates two approaches to exchange rate determination, and compares their theoretical and empirical performance. Firstly, monetary model is introduced, and secondly 'news' model is presented. Since 'news' model incorporates rational expectations and considers interest rate endogenous, it is expected to give better results in comparison with monetary model. Six exchange rates were chosen for the empirical analysis. They are analyzed in period July 2000 -- June 2012. As expected, 'news' model outperforms monetary model. However, since the volatility of exchange rate is much bigger in reality than both of the models are able to explain, neither of the models can be considered as satisfactory. It is the same result which has been presented in older studies that investigated these models.

This master thesis examines mutual relations between components of the balance of payments and the foreign exchange rate. The first part briefly describes the structure of the balance of payments and the theory of the foreign exchange rate as a macro-economical variable, which can be seen in many different systems. The next part brings the characteristics of historic and recent economic conditions and challenges of four selected countries: Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC). In the empirical part, relations between components of the balance of payments and the development of the exchange rate are analyzed by methods of the linear regression. The time-series consisted of annual data for a period of fifteen to seventeen years.

Primary objective of this thesis was to analyse the relationship between exchange rate and interest rate within borders of a small open economy. Different theoretical approaches often present us with various, sometimes even opposing conclusions when it comes to the matter of direction and intensity of the causal influence between these two variables. From author's point of view it is important to perceive the interaction between exchange rate and interest rate as a dynamic process rather than a static relationship. The empirical analysis was conducted on monthly time series (2000-2012) of three selected small open economies -- Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. Graphical analysis, linear regression, vector autoregression and cointegration analysis were selected as suitable tools for meeting the objective of this thesis. Models themselves presented us with interesting conclusions, for example a proof of the international Fisher effect, exchange rate causally affecting the interest rate (interest rate differential) in case of spot rates against euro. Another curious phenomena was the inflow of foreign debt capital, which, as it seems, was actually pulling the exchange rate down rather than pushing it up due to rising indebtedness of the economy.

The appropriateness of inflation targeting in South Africa is examined. South Africa has adopted flexible inflation targeting, wherein considerations for other macroeconomic variables are prioritized. There is evidence of growing concern regarding South Africa’s monetary policy framework., emerging primarily from the trade union movement and the communist party. The concerns are borne out of the developmental challenges that are still facing South Africa, ranging from high unemployment, high levels of poverty and inequality, and low economic growth. In attempt to understand these concerns, the following key economic variables GDP, Manufacturing Data, Exchange Rate, and Repo Rate were investigated using both Eviews and Stat tool. To eliminate the impact of the recent global recession, the data that has been analyzed is up to 2008. The research compares two periods, namely; the pre inflation targeting period (1990 – 1999) and post inflation targeting period (2000 – 2008). The study has found that despite unemployment, inequality and economic growth having being sluggish over the years, these factors are not as a result of inflation targeting. Evidence indicates that inflation has been reduced and stabilized since the adoption of inflation targeting. This research argues that this methodology is important for South Africa’s economic development, as evident by increased output. This research concludes that the implementation of inflation targeting is appropriate for South Africa. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2015-12-08T13:19:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 karendiascorrea.pdf: 4111220 bytes, checksum: 763076d4718dfcb2597f2ba14764202a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2015-12-09T13:41:48Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 karendiascorrea.pdf: 4111220 bytes, checksum: 763076d4718dfcb2597f2ba14764202a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-12-09T13:41:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 karendiascorrea.pdf: 4111220 bytes, checksum: 763076d4718dfcb2597f2ba14764202a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-06 / Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o efeito de longo prazo da volatilidade da taxa de câmbio real efetiva sobre os produtos básicos, semimanufaturados e manufaturados exportados do Brasil para os principais parceiros econômicos, sendo estes Estados Unidos, União Europeia e MERCOSUL. A literatura teórica é controversa com relação aos efeitos esperados da volatilidade sobre as exportações. O presente estudo avança em relação à literatura empírica reunida aqui em duas direções: na metodologia de mensuração empregada na volatilidade e na categoria de produtos utilizados. Para tanto, foi empregada a abordagem de cointegração via modelo ARDL e o teste de Fronteira de Pesaran et al. (2001). Os principais resultados do trabalho são que há evidência de que a volatilidade tem um impacto negativo sobre as exportações brasileiras com destino ao MERCOSUL. Quanto às exportações para os Estados Unidos, os resultados são contraditórios, dado que apresentaram uma relação negativa entre a volatilidade e exportações dos produtos manufaturados e semimanufaturados e uma relação predominantemente positiva na análise desagregada em capítulos da NCM. Por fim, para a União Europeia, apenas na análise desagregada ocorreu a relação estatística de longo prazo entre volatilidade e exportações. Neste caso, a predominância das relações foi negativa. / This work aims to analyze the long-term effect of the volatility of the real effective exchange rate on commodities, semi-manufactured and manufactured products exported from Brazil to the main economic partners, which are the United States, European Union and MERCOSUR. This study improved regarding the empirical literature in two directions: in the measurement methodology used in volatility and in the category of used products. For this we used the approach of cointegration via ARDL model by Border test Pesaran et al. (2001). The main results of the work are that there is evidence that volatility has a negative impact on Brazilian exports to MERCOSUR. For exports to the United States the results are contradictory, given that showed a negative relationship between volatility and exports for manufactured and semi-manufactured goods and a largely positive relationship in the disaggregated analysis of NCM chapters. Finally, for the European Union only a disaggregated analysis was the long-term statistical relationship between volatility and exports. In this case, the dominance relations was negative.

This thesis analyzes the incomplete exchange rate pass-through effect on Mongolian economy and its implication on monetary policy under foreign and domestic shocks. The analysis is carried out in a small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model proposed by Monacelli (2005), where incomplete exchange rate pass-through is introduced via nominal rigidities on import prices. In order to accomplish the goal, we firstly derive the solutions of the model, calibrate the parameters, and finally simulate the impulse responses. Moreover, SVAR estimation is achieved to estimate the pass-through. Four main results are obtained. First, the exchange rate pass-through into import price and inflation is 0.69% and 0.49% respectively in short run, implying incomplete pass-through in Mongolia. Second, the exchange rate acts as a shock absorber for domestic productivity and foreign demand shock, but as a shock amplifier for domestic demand shock. Third, in case of incomplete pass-through the central bank of Mongolia is required to adjust the nominal interest rate more under the productivity shock, but less for the domestic and foreign demand shock. Finally, deviations from the law of one price contributes considerably to the variability of the output gap under the low pass-through. Therefore, considering incomplete pass-through in...

The aim of thesis is clarify of the exchange rate affects on firm competitiveness. The first chapter deals with the theoretical bases of the competitiveness of companies in relation to foreign exchange rate. The second chapter deals with evaluating and measuring the competitiveness of the three selected sectors of the economy. For this purpose, the influence of the exchange rate on the competitiveness of these three sectors. This chapter is also selected company performance, which is also demonstrated by the effect of the nominal and real effective exchange rate to its competitiveness. The final part of thesis describes the assessments of opportunities and risks associated with exchange rate.

Orientador: Eduardo Strachman / Resumo: Em um ambiente de globalização financeira, a taxa de câmbio se coloca como uma variável de relativa importância para uma economia. A justificativa para isso está centrada no fato de que ela representa um dos principais preços relativos de uma economia e, portanto, estudos que buscam descobri a sua determinação, os seus movimentos e a sua dinâmica estão constantemente presentes na literatura econômica. A emergência sobre essa temática surgiu após o fim do acordo de Bretton Woods em 1973, no qual o seu fim resultou em mudanças na arquitetura do sistema monetário e financeiro internacional, modificando, entre várias coisas, o relacionamento dos países com as suas respectivas taxas de câmbio. Em alguns países o regime de câmbio flutuante foi adotado em detrimento do regime de câmbio fixo, e com isso as taxas de câmbio passaram a apresentar um comportamento altamente volátil, o que despertou a curiosidade sobre este fato. O comportamento volátil das taxas de câmbio somado a propagação da globalização financeira, ocasionou o processo de “financeirização” das taxas. Este processo estreitava a relação do câmbio com os fluxos de capitais de curto prazo, além de permitir ganhos especulativos com a variação cambial. Com essa nova realidade, alguns estudos emergiram com o objetivo de explicar a nova dinâmica cambial. É neste contexto que surgiu a abordagem pós-keynesiana de determinação cambial, que traz como um dos fundamentos a criação do Modelo Mental. O modelo mental seria um esquema... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The following study aims to verify the applicability of the mental model to explain the dynamics of the exchange rate in Brazil from 2001 to 2018. The end of Bretton Woods agreement in 1973 led to changes in the international financial architecture, such as the ones observed in the relationship between a country with its exchange rate. As some countries chose the floating Exchange rate regime instead of the fixed one. the exchange rates of the following years presented a highly volatile behavior. This behavior added to financial globalization, growing demand for liquid assets, and deep markets, caused a financialization of the Exchange rate. This process strengthened the relation of the Exchange rate to short-term capital flows. In addition, it permitted speculation profits from the exchange variation. In this same period, lots of theories and models were formulated trying to explain this new outline. Among them, there is the post Keynesian approach of exchange rate determination. According to it, agents’ expectations and short-term capital flows are the driving force of currency movements. Thus, this approach created a mental model which delineates the development of those expectations. The complete mental model has three phases; indicators, base factors, and processes, and it will be used as part of this paper methodology. As this study is a descriptive and explanatory, its methodological procedures were divided in two parts. First, there is a descriptive statistical analys... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre