Purpose - this study is aimed at to investigating the effects exchange rate and other variables on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have on the Namibian economy. Methodology -The model comprises of the unit root test, the co-integration test, the long run equation co-efficient, an error correction model, the normality test and the stability test, were employed to estimate and interpret the results. Finding and recommendations - The results of the study have revealed that a relationship exists between exchange rate and FDI. However, this relationship is said to be statistically insignificant. It cannot therefore be used as a tool to influence FDI in Namibia. The results further indicated that GDP and trade openness were the most significant determinants of FDI in Namibia. The recommendations of this study thus suggest that the government should implement policies to diversify its production across all sectors and increase the manufacturing of finished goods, so as to enhance the GDP growth. Namibia should further advance its trade open through in-creased and fast-tracked trade agreements at both bilateral and multilateral levels.

(None) Technical Summary of Thesis: The topic of my thesis is currency crisis. Currency crises have been a recurrent feature of the international economy from the invention of paper money. They are not confined to particular economies or specific region. They take place in developed, emerging, and developing countries and are spread all over the globe. Countries that experience currency crises face economic losses that can be huge and disruptive. However, the exacted toll is not only financial and economic, but also human, social, and political. It is clear that the currency crisis is a real threat to financial stability and economic prosperity. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of currency crises for twenty OECD countries and South Africa from 1970 through 1998. It systematically examines the role of economic fundamentals and contagion in the origins of currency crises and empirically attempts to identify the channels through which the crises are being transmitted. It also examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. The first chapter identifies the episodes of currency crisis in our data set. Determining true crisis periods is a vital step in the empirical studies and has direct impact on the reliability of their estimations and the relevant policy implications. We define a period as a crisis episode when the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index, which consists of changes in exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates, exceeds a threshold. In order to minimize the concerns regarding the accuracy of identified crisis episodes, we apply extreme value theory, which is a more objective approach compared to other methods. In this chapter, we also select the reference country, which a country’s currency pressure index should be built around, in a more systematic way rather than by arbitrary choice or descriptive reasoning. The second chapter studies the probability of a currency exiting a tranquil state into a crisis state. There is an extensive literature on currency crises that empirically evaluate the roots and causes of the crises. Despite the interesting results of the current empirical literature, only very few of them account for the influence of time on the probability of crises. We use duration models that rigorously incorporate the time factor into the likelihood functions and allow us to investigate how the amount of time that a currency has already spent in the tranquil state affects the stability of a currency. Our findings show that high values of volatility of unemployment rates, inflation rates, contagion factors (which mostly work through trade channels), unemployment rates, real effective exchange rate, trade openness, and size of economy increases the hazard of a crisis. We make use of several robustness checks, including running our models on two different crisis episodes sets that are identified based on monthly and quarterly type spells. The third chapter examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. As in our previous paper, duration analysis is our methodology to study the probability of a currency crisis occurrence under different exchange rate regimes and capital mobility policies. The third chapter finds that there is a significant link between the choice of exchange rate regime and the incidence of currency crises in our sample. Nevertheless, the results are sensitive to the choice of the de facto exchange rate system. Moreover, in our sample, capital control policies appear to be helpful in preventing low duration currency crises. The results are robust to a wide variety of sample and models checks.

Dans cette thèse de doctorat en sciences économiques, dont le thème est « Régimes de Change et Performances Économiques en Afrique Sub-saharienne », nous avons développé une analyse cherchant à montrer le lien entre le régime de change et les performances économiques des pays en Afrique Sub-Saharienne (ASS). Pour réaliser les analyses comparatives, l’échantillon global, ASS, a d’abord été subdivisé entre les pays de l’union monétaire, dont les pays de la zone CFA (ZCFA), et les pays hors union monétaire ou les pays hors zone CFA (HZCFA), et, il a ensuite été subdivisé entre les pays de l’Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA), les pays de la Communauté Économique et Monétaire de l’Afrique Centrale (CEMAC), les pays HZCFA avec les régimes de change fixe et les pays HZCFA avec les régimes de change flexible. Notre analyse se concentre sur les thèmes suivants :1. Les régimes de change et les politiques monétaires en ASS2. La convergence entre la zone UEMOA et la zone CEMAC3. Les régimes de change et les instabilités macroéconomiques en ASS4. Les régimes de change, le TCR et son ajustement en ASS5. Les régimes de change, les instabilités macroéconomiques et la croissance économique en ASS.Les études empiriques que nous avons menées sur ces thèmes ont conduit à des résultats très contrastés et variées selon les sous-échantillons. Les résultats montrent que les régimes de change n’ont pas été bien gérés en ASS et qu’ils y ont été utilisés parfois comme des moyens de dissimulation des résultats économiques inefficaces et inefficients causés par les mauvaises politiques et décisions économiques. / In this PhD. thesis titled “Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Performances in Sub-Saharan Africa”, we carried out analysis to show the relationship between the choice of exchange rate regimes and economic performances in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In order to proceed to comparative analysis, first we breakdown the global sample (SSA) into two, which are the monetary union countries or CFA franc zone countries (ZCFA) and the non-monetary union countries or countries outside CFA franc zone (HZCFA), then we breakdown the sample into four subsample, which are the West Africa Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries, the Central Africa Economic and Monetary Community (CAEMC) countries, the HZCFA countries with fixed exchange rate regimes and the HZCFA countries with flexible exchange rate regimes. Our analysis focuses on the following topics:1. Exchange rate regimes and monetary policies in SSA2. Convergence between WAEMU and CAEMC3. Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic instabilities in SSA4. Exchange rate regimes, Real exchange rate and its adjustment in SSA5. Exchange rate regimes, macroeconomic instabilities and economic growth in SSAThe empirical results based on topics mentioned above conducted to mixed results depending on our subsamples. Also, they show that the exchange rate regimes have not been well managed in SSA, and that they have been sometimes used as means to hide bad economic results induced by non-effective economic policies and non-effective economic decisions.

The goal of this diploma thesis is to assess purchasing power parity (PPP) under the conditions of transition process. The thesis provides a survey of the purchasing power parity theory and concentrates on the relative version. It outlines main causes of possible deviations and modifications of the model. In the empirical part four transition economies are tested for the PPP theory: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The diploma thesis concludes with analysis of the role of the exchange rate under conditions of a small open economy. The overall analysis is implemented within the context of real and nominal convergence towards European Union and future accession to the European Monetary Union.

The diploma defines the term of entrepreneur and non-profit organisation. It presents legislative of accounting of foreign currencies of these accounting entities and then shows differences between accounting of foreign currencies at entrepreneur and non-profit organisation in practical examples. The diploma describes international regulation of changes in exchange rates (IAS 21) and compares it with present legislative in the Czech Republic.

This paper examines Czech experience with inflation targeting. It tries to assess empirically character of deviations from inflation targets throughout the time. It assess situation also in an international context. Consequently it analyse ability of IT regime to anchor inflation expectations in context of CNB?s forecasting performance. Results imply that although deviations were quite frequent in the Czech Republic, their occurrence has not been a barrier for delivering lower inflation and its lower volatility. Notwithstanding, its volatility remains significantly above the range experienced in the EU and the EMU countries. Regarding the inflation expectations, monetary policy surprises tend to be smaller over time,signalising that IT regime is priced by the markets. Thus, credibility of the CNB, concerning anchoring of inflation expectations, seems to improve after introduction of IT regime. It also indicates that IT regime is a quite appropriate regime for the upcoming period of time, which will be end up by the entry in the EMU.

This paper concentrates on the analysis of currency crises in economies undergoing economic transition. The papaer begins with a brief introduction of contemporary exchnage rate regimes, which is followed by an analysis of the history of the World monetary system. The following chapters concentrate on the analysis of the monetary development in selected transitional economies. In case of the the first one, The Czech Republic, the analysis includes the period from the times of the centrally planed economy, through the initial transformation and the currency crisis of 1997 to the present day. In case of the other countries included in this paper, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Icelnad, the analysis concentrates on the current critical development in these economies. Apart from the analysis of the selected currency crises, the objective of this paper is to draw conclusions relevant to the future development of currency policies in the transitional economies.

This paper deals with the management of foreign exchange risk and focuses on ŠKODA JS a.s. Its aim is to evaluate the process of risk managing in the company, assuming that foreign exchange risk has a substantial impact on business. The analysis itself is based on interpretation of foreign exchange position, forecasts of both exchange rate and expected losses, explicit hedge strategy and details of financial derivatives used for hedging.

This thesis deals with the relation between interest differential and exchange rate. First part is about the exchange rate system explanation and about explanation of theoretical background of relation between interest rate and exchange rate (i. e. Asset Market Model, Interest Rate Parity, etc.). The goal of second part is to verify theoretical assumptions on empirical data. There is a sample of ten European countries which is used for applying of graphical analysis, regression analysis and VAR model analysis.

The main aim of my thesis is to describe the development of the American dollar's position within the historical background, its role in a globalized economy and analyze the current position of the dollar as the world's leading currency. The thesis is divided into three parts. First part is dedicated to the theoretical background concerning exchange rates and currency regimes. The second chapter considers the history of the international monetary system with the relation to the dollar. The third chapter analyzes the current situation and characteristics determining the role of American dollar. This chapter also describes some problems of American economy, analyses exchange rate of dollar against Euro and gives possible forecast of dollar's position for the future.