Global Circulation Models of climate predict not only a change of annual precipitation amounts but also a shift in the daily distribution. To improve the understanding of the importance of daily rain pattern for annual plant communities, which represent a large portion of semi-natural vegetation in the Middle East, I used a detailed, spatially explicit model. The model explicitly considers water storage in the soil and has been parameterized and validated with data collected in field experiments in Israel and data from the literature. I manipulated daily rainfall variability by increasing the mean daily rain intensity on rainy days (MDI, rain volume/day) and decreasing intervals between rainy days while keeping the mean annual amount constant. In factorial combination, I also increased mean annual precipitation (MAP). I considered five climatic regions characterized by 100, 300, 450, 600, and 800 mm MAP. Increasing MDI decreased establishment when MAP was >250 mm but increased establishment at more arid sites. The negative effect of increasing MDI was compensated by increasing mortality with increasing MDI in dry and typical Mediterranean regions (c. 360–720 mm MAP). These effects were strongly tied to water availability in upper and lower soil layers and modified by competition among seedlings and adults. Increasing MAP generally increased water availability, establishment, and density. The order of magnitudes of MDI and MAP effects overlapped partially so that their combined effect is important for projections of climate change effects on annual vegetation. The effect size of MAP and MDI followed a sigmoid curve along the MAP gradient indicating that the semi-arid region (≈300 mm MAP) is the most sensitive to precipitation change with regard to annual communitie

Germination rates and germination fractions of seeds can be predicted well by the hydrothermal time (HTT) model. Its four parameters hydrothermal time, minimum soil temperature, minimum soil moisture, and variation of minimum soil moisture, however, must be determined by lengthy germination experiments at combinations of several levels of soil temperature and moisture. For some applications of the HTT model it is more important to have approximate estimates for many species rather than exact values for only a few species. We suggest that minimum temperature and variation of minimum moisture can be estimated from literature data and expert knowledge. This allows to derive hydrothermal time and minimum moisture from existing data from germination experiments with one level of temperature and moisture. We applied our approach to a germination experiment comparing germination fractions of wild annual species along an aridity gradient in Israel. Using this simplified approach we estimated hydrothermal time and minimum moisture of 36 species. Comparison with exact data for three species shows that our method is a simple but effective method for obtaining parameters for the HTT model. Hydrothermal time and minimum moisture supposedly indicate climate related germination strategies. We tested whether these two parameters varied with the climate at the site where the seeds had been collected. We found no consistent variation with climate across species, suggesting that variation is more strongly controlled by site-specific factors. / Keimungsgeschwindigkeit und Anteil gekeimter Samen lassen sich gut mit dem Hydrothermalzeit-Modell bestimmen. Dessen vier Parameter Hydrothermalzeit, Mindesttemperatur, Mindestbodenfeuchte und Streuung der Mindestbodenfeuchte müssen jedoch durch aufwendige Keimungsversuche bei Kombinationen von mehreren Temperatur- und Feuchtigkeitsstufen bestimmt werden. Für manche Anwendungen des Hydrothermalzeit-Modells sind aber ungefähre Werte für viele Arten wichtiger als genaue Werte für wenige Arten. Wenn die Mindesttemperatur und die Streuung der Mindestfeuchte aus Veröffentlichungen und Expertenwissen geschätzt würde, können die Hydrothermalzeit und Mindestbodenfeuchte aus vorhandenen Daten von Keimungsversuchen mit nur einer Temperatur- und Feuchtigkeitsstufe berechnet werden. Wir haben unseren Ansatz auf einen Keimungsversuch zum Vergleich der Keimungsquote wilder einjähriger Arten entlang eines Trockenheitsgradienten in Israel angewendet. Mit diesem Ansatz bestimmten wir die Hydrothermalzeit und Mindestfeuchtigkeit von 36 Arten. Der Vergleich mit genauen Werten für drei Arten zeigt, dass mit unserem Ansatz Hydrothermalzeit-Parameter einfach und effektiv bestimmt werden können. Hydrothermalzeit und Mindestfeuchtigkeit sollten auch bestimmte klimabedingte Keimungsstrategien anzeigen. Deshalb testeten wir, ob diese zwei Parameter mit dem Klima am Ursprungsort der Samen zusammenhängen. Wir fanden jedoch keinen für alle Arten übereinstimmenden Zusammenhang, so dass die Unterschiede vermutlich stärker durch standörtliche als durch klimatische Ursachen hervorgerufen werden.

No description available.