Cette thèse porte sur les déterminants fondamentaux du dynamisme du capital-risque. Notre démarche de recherche vise essentiellement à identifier les facteurs qui ont conduit au développement phénoménal de cette activité aux États-Unis et qui seraient susceptibles d'expliquer le retard de l'Europe en matière du capital-risque. On peut inférer de ce travail plusieurs conclusions. D'une part, l'existence d'un marché financier national dédié aux valeurs technologique ne peut être considérée comme le principal facteur expliquant l'avantage comparatif des États-Unis en termes du capital-risque. D'autre part, la demande et la performance anticipée constituent les fondements et la spécificité du capital-risque américain. Leur faiblesse dans les pays européens peut expliquer le retard de ces derniers. Nous avons également mis en évidence l'importance de l'environnement scientifique et technologique pour le dynamisme du capital-risque. Un résultat qui peut d'un coté, expliquer le retard des pays européens qui souffrent d'insuffisances en termes de dépenses en R&D. De l'autre, il peut rendre compte du succès de deux modèles de capital-risque basés sur la stratégie de recherche et développement, à savoir la Suède et Israël. / He thesis focuses on the determinants of venture capital dynamism. Our approach aims not only at identifying factors that led to the phenomenal development of this activity in the United States, but also at explaining why Europe still cannot catch up in terms of venture capital. Several conclusions can be inferred from this thesis. On the one hand, an active financial market cannot be regarded as the main factor explaining the comparative advantage of the U.S. in terms of venture capital. On the other hand, other more important factors may explain the superiority of U.S. venture capital as well as the European countries delay. Estimates conducted to highlight the importance of demand and of the expected performance for the venture capital dynamism. These two factors represent the strengths and the specificity of the U.S. venture capital. The estimates have also highlighted the role of scientific and technological environment, that can explain the delay of European countries which suffer from shortcomings in R&D spendings and, might illustrate the success of two venture capital models based on the research and development strategy: Sweden and Israel.

The hash economic conditions in Zimbabwe, marred with perpetual cash cri- sis, little to no foreign direct investments (FDI's), high unemployment rates, absence of the Central Bank roles and local currency has piqued my interests to study the long-run relationship of capital market indices and macroeco- nomic variables, in such conditions. The literature review analysed dierent research work that were done in health economics about the same subject but with dierent variable matrix structure and methods. Most of the stud- ies conrmed the short/ long-run relationship between capital market indices and macroeconomic variables. An ARDL method was employed on the subject matter, and interesting re- sults were obtained that are at variance with most of the existing empirical results in the literature. For example, most of the studies conrmed a signi- cant relationship between the exchange rate, interest rate and stock index but this research showed otherwise. Moreover, this work lled the existing gap in the literature on the relationship between the mining index and macroeco- nomics variables. Furthermore, it has been noted that consumer price index and exchange rates have a negative long-run relationship with the mining index. A way for further research of this nature in countries with the same or similar economic conditions as of Zimbabwe has been set in motion and needed for an abstract conclusions on the variations noted by this work.

This study examines the effect of financial development on economic growth in South Africa. South Africa is an interesting case study, as it provides a relatively rich environment in terms of data. While the finance and business sector has grown significantly in the last ten years becoming a major contributor to gross domestic product, the South African economy has been struggling to register positive output in the preceding years. The study utilizes an Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach to cointegration and a Solow model to consider the role of banks, financial institutions, and financial markets independently. The results reveal that financial institutions have a considerable role in fostering economic development in the long run in South Africa. Conversely, financial market indicators do not have long run effects on growth in South Africa and in the short run, financial markets negatively influence growth. High foreign participation in the financial markets including ease of capital flows and currency volatility could be reasons for this result.

In this paper, we used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the bounds test approach to estimate the elasticity of demand for natural gas in Western and Central Canada. The best model specification selected by Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) for each province suggests that there exist long-run relationships between the dependent variable and independent variables for all provinces, except Ontario. Consumption per capita in these provinces can be explained by natural gas prices, electricity prices, income, and heating degree days (a measurement for the weather factor) in levels for the selected specification. The results show that natural gas demand is very inelastic with respect to natural gas prices and also with respect to heating degree days.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-05-03T18:34:21Z No. of bitstreams: 1 luizantoniodelimajunior.pdf: 1344615 bytes, checksum: 919b5c28418985f06dacdab48d4fc50b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-06-07T15:19:38Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 luizantoniodelimajunior.pdf: 1344615 bytes, checksum: 919b5c28418985f06dacdab48d4fc50b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-07T15:19:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 luizantoniodelimajunior.pdf: 1344615 bytes, checksum: 919b5c28418985f06dacdab48d4fc50b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-11-26 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Esta tese objetivou o estudo empírico da política monetária não convencional adotada pelos nos EUA, Japão e Reino Unido após a crise subprime e a expansão monetária brasileira no contexto da nova matriz macroeconômica. A política monetária adotada pelos três países desenvolvidos supracitados, conhecida como Quantitative Easing (QE), é baseada na explicação do economista Milton Friedman acerca da Grande Depressão que ocorreu nos EUA na década de 1930, que tem a teoria quantitativa da moeda como base. Segundo Friedman a causa da depressão foi a não ação do FED (Federal Reserve Board), que permitiu que o estoque de moeda dos EUA caísse em torno de 30%. Os bancos centrais norte-americano, britânico e nipônico, que no auge da crise em 2008 estavam com a taxa de juros próxima a zero, iniciaram uma expansão sem precedentes da base monetária, no momento que o estoque de moeda começou a dar sinais de queda. No caso brasileiro ocorreu uma expansão monetária diferente dos países que praticaram o QE. Mesmo com taxas de juros elevadas, o Brasil teve uma forte expansão de crédito, que passou de 24% do PIB em 2003 para 50% em 2014. Esta política que a priori foi chamada de Involuntary Easing (IE), ocorreu no contexto que a autoridade monetária brasileira trabalhava em uma conjuntura econômica favorável e o governo dava incentivo ao aumento da oferta de crédito por meio de medidas econômicas alternativas. Em termos comparativos com o QE, no IE mesmo sem aumentos da base monetária, o estoque de moeda aumenta. Os dados apontam para a relação positiva entre a evolução dos agregados monetários e a recuperação da economia dos EUA, Reino Unido e Japão no contexto do QE. De forma análoga outros indicadores apontam essa relação para o Brasil até 2008, no contexto do IE. Com a finalidade de testar essas relações, que dado a sua contemporaneidade a literatura é incipiente, esse trabalho adotou a abordagem ARDL de Pesaran, Shin e Smith (2001). O primeiro capítulo analisou o impacto do QE no produto dos três países que o adotaram entre 2008-2014 enquanto o segundo capítulo investiga os transbordamentos do QE no mercado de ações desses países. No terceiro capítulo foi estudado o impacto do IE no produto brasileiro entre 2003-2014. A conclusão que este trabalho chegou foi que o uso de agregados monetários como instrumento de política monetária teve impacto positivo no PIB e no mercado de ações dos EUA, Reino Unido e Japão. No caso do Brasil, os resultados mostram que a partir de 2010 a relação entre agregados monetários e o produto não é significante. / This study investigated the unconventional monetary policy adopted by central banks in the US, Japan and the United Kingdom after the subprime crisis. This policy, known as quantitative easing (QE), is based on the economist Milton Friedman's explanation of the Great Depression that occurred in the US in the 1930s. According to Friedman the fault for the depression was the FED, which allowed the stock of US currency fall around 30% in less than one year. Based on the interpretation of Friedman, central banks of the above countries, at the height of the crisis in 2008 initiated an unprecedented expansion of the monetary base at the time that the money stock began to signs that was falling. This increase of the monetary base avoided the mistake of the 1930s and averted a new Great Depression in the economy. The Brazil experienced an unconventional monetary policy different from countries that have done QE. Even at high interest rates, Brazil had a strong expansion of credit, which went from 24% of GDP in 2003 to 50% in 2014. This policy this work called Involuntary Easing (IE) occurs since the central bank still has a tight monetary policy, but there is a favorable economic environment, the credit increases. In comparison with the QE in IE even without increases in the monetary base, the money stock increases. In order to study the QE and IE we used monetary aggregates as the main monetary policy instrument through the ARDL approach. The first article analyzes the impact of QE on the product of the three countries that have adopted it between 2008-2014. The second article investigates the spillover of QE in the stock market of these countries. The third article examines the impact of IE in Brazilian product between 2003 to 2014. The conclusion we reached was that there are evidences that the QE had a positive impact on GDP and the stock market of the countries that have adopted it. In the case of IE in Brazil, there are few indications that it had an impact on the Brazilian economy between 2003-2014, this could have occurred mainly by macroeconomic shift in Brazilian economic policy after the subprime crisis.

This thesis examines the relationship between foreign capital inflows and economic growth in Ethiopia over the period from 1981 to 2014. In particular, the real GDP per capita as a function of foreign aid, foreign direct investment and other foreign capital inflows (remittances and external debt) were investigated. The ARDL approach was applied to explain the long run and short run effect of explanatory variables on the dependent variable. The result reveals that the flow of foreign aid has a negative effect on economic growth both in long run and short run. This is mainly because the existence of poor institutional arrangement and the funds are not always connected to the productive sectors. Similarly, the long run relationship between the flow of foreign direct investment and the economic growth is negative. The possible explanation for this negative effect is due to inadequate basic infrastructures and poor institutional quality in the country. However, the long run and short run effect of other foreign capital inflows and the short run effect of foreign direct investment are found to be insignificant in affecting real GDP per capita. In addition, the causality test result indicates that there is a unidirectional causal relationship from official foreign aid to real GDP per capita and bidirectional causal relationship between foreign direct investment and real GDP per capita, but there is no any causal relationship between other foreign capital inflows and real GDP per capita in Ethiopia. Thus, the study suggests that the government has to ensure that the capital inflows are linked to the productive sectors to optimize the benefits of capital inflows. Moreover, the government has to pursue policy device to mobilize domestic resources and to reduce over-reliance on capital inflows.

This thesis explores the cross-price elasticity of rail and bus usage with gasoline prices. This is done to see how the short-run cross price elasticity has changed and to see if the same long-run relationship can be seen in the long run as previous pooled models. It is done in order to investigate whether policies such as higher gasoline taxes may make consumers move from car usage towards public transportation. Historically the cross-price elasticity has been around 0.2 with a higher elasticity for rail than for buses. The relationship also seemed to be greater in the long run than short run. Investigating this long run cross price elasticity for modes of public transportation separately would give greater insight into how consumers behave when gasoline prices shift. An ARDL model was therefore used to investigate the long run coefficients of gasoline prices with rail usage and bus usage separately as well as the short run coefficients. No cointegration could be found in this model for the two different modes. The results of the short-run cross-price elasticity seemed to be greater for buses as a direct effect, while it was greater at first lag for rail usage. The cross-price elasticity was lower for the period than previous studies, indicating that the cross-price elasticity may have decreased. The reasons for this cannot be concluded, but theory may explain these differences by the availability in substitutes for the periods, or lower levels of gasoline prices in recent years. This thesis therefore suggests further studies that investigate how usage of rail affects the usage of buses in metropolitan areas, and how the attributes of a modes of public transportation may change the usage of another form of public transportation.

The overall purpose of this study is to estimate how the rise in grain prices (especially corn prices) induced by ethanol production impacts U.S. catfish industry. Using monthly data from January 1996 to December 2007, an ARDL model and bounds testing procedure were used. The existence of cointegration between the feed price and its regressors and between the farm price and its regressors was found. Results show that the short- and long-run feed price elasticity with respect to corn prices were 0.224 and 0.075, respectively. It was found that energy is more important to catfish feed production than to farm level catfish production, and is more important to processor level production than to farm level production. Results further showed that catfish farmers will lose net returns because the estimated farm price elasticity with respect to feed prices was smaller than the necessary change that would keep net returns the same. The overall purpose of this study is to estimate how the rise in grain prices (especially corn prices) induced by ethanol production impacts catfish feed prices and catfish prices at the farm level. Using monthly data from January 1996 to December 2007, an ARDL model and bounds testing procedure were used to test the existence of cointegration between the variables of interest. The existence of cointegration between the feed price and its regressors and between the farm prices and its regressors was found. Estimation results show that the short- and long-run feed price elasticity with respect to corn prices were 0.224 and 0.075, respectively. Feed and farm price elasticities with respect to energy prices were highlighted. The results show that energy is more important to catfish feed production than to catfish production at the farm level, and energy is more important to catfish production at the processor level than to production at the farm level.

近年來中國在經濟上的成就是有目共賭的，並儼然成為帶動世界經濟成長的重要推動力。為因應社會主義市場經濟的建立和發展，並解決原稅制與市場經濟發展不相配合的問題，中國自1980年起進行多次的財政改革，將中央政府的財政權力下放給地方政府。也由於此一「財政分權」的設計，加強地方政府發展經濟的財政誘因，不但帶動了地方經濟的發展，也因地方財政收入增加而提高了地方公共財的投資，更進一步的促進經濟成長。然而，隨著地方經濟的發展和勢力的壯大，「先發地區」政府利用其經濟優勢，向中央或上級政府爭取更多的政策優惠和發展資源；但對於「後發地區」政府，由於經濟落後，因而與中央談判的籌碼不多，致使各地方政府分配到的財政資源殊異。 本篇文章之主要研究目的，即為探討改革開放後中國地方財政不均度對經濟成長的影響。本研究將利用1979年至2006年的時間序列資料來分析，中國地方財政分配不均度對於其經濟成長是否呈現正向的貢獻。於本研究中，將回顧現有文獻中，關於地方財政分配不均度對經濟成長影響之相關理論與實證文獻。其次，本文也將清楚地介紹與說明，改革開放以來中國地方財政分配不均度與其經濟成長間關係之現況。再者，本研究將建立九組實證模型，並透過共整合ARDL模型來試圖捕捉到更全面性的中國地方財政不均度與其經濟成長之關係。本文主要發現可分為長期與短期兩部分。先就長期而言，中國地方財政不均度對其經濟成長有著顯著且為正向的關係。再就短期而言，中國地方財政不均度對其經濟成長則呈現不顯著或顯著且為正向的關係。最後，為了降低實證模型發生錯誤的機會，並使研究過程更為嚴謹，本研究將對實證模型和估計結果使用更多方法檢定。 / The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of regional fiscal distribution inequality on the economic growth in post-reform China. By using of the time-series data during the period of 1979-2006, this study analyzes whether or not China’s regional fiscal distribution inequality provides a positive effect for economic growth. Both theoretical papers and empirical papers related to the relationship between regional fiscal distribution inequality and economic growth are reviewed. This study establishes nine empirical models and are estimated by ARDL with cointegration model which attempts to catch the relationship more comprehensively between regional fiscal distribution inequality and the economic growth in China. The main finding of this study is that China’s regional fiscal distribution inequality has the significantly positive effect on its economic growth in the long run. In the short run, China’s regional fiscal distribution inequality has the significantly positive effect or not has an effect on its economic growth. Finally, in order to reduce the mistakes occurred in positive models and enable the study more rigorous, this study uses more methods to test the models and the result.

Submitted by Alisson Mota (alisson.davidbeckam@gmail.com) on 2015-06-23T21:00:04Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - André Beltrão de Lucena.pdf: 8666477 bytes, checksum: a032544489db56fe60e6dfe11ff3348e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Divisão de Documentação/BC Biblioteca Central (ddbc@ufam.edu.br) on 2015-06-25T19:53:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - André Beltrão de Lucena.pdf: 8666477 bytes, checksum: a032544489db56fe60e6dfe11ff3348e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Divisão de Documentação/BC Biblioteca Central (ddbc@ufam.edu.br) on 2015-06-25T19:56:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - André Beltrão de Lucena.pdf: 8666477 bytes, checksum: a032544489db56fe60e6dfe11ff3348e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-25T19:56:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - André Beltrão de Lucena.pdf: 8666477 bytes, checksum: a032544489db56fe60e6dfe11ff3348e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-09-12 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Among the energy sources used in Brazil, demand for electricity has quadrupled in four decades. This research covers the isolated electric systems of Amazonas State that have higher production costs than the National System. The research was delimited to “Manaus System” that hosts an industry area which corresponds to 34% of the Amazonas State Electrical Demand. This research, seeks to evaluate the relevant factors for electricity production following official documents, scientific resources and a case study. The data were obtained from official sources such as Eletrobrás, INMET and MTE, scientific papers on the study area and those obtained by statistical analysis ARDL. Such analysis has been widely used since its version published in 2001 by allowing study the relationship between variables. Long-run relationship evidence was found between energy, temperature of the urban area and the number of jobs in the service and the commercial sectors in the city of Manaus. For the industrial sector, the number of jobs did not show evidence of relationships with other variables. A regressive model was calculated using ARDL technique which could estimate the production of electricity with a maximum error of 3.7% compared with the reality / Entre as fontes energéticas usadas no Brasil, a demanda por eletricidade quadruplicou em quatro décadas. Esta pesquisa aborda os sistemas elétricos isolados do Amazonas que apresentam custo de produção superior ao do Sistema Nacional. A pesquisa delimitou-se ao “Sistema Manaus” que abriga um polo industrial que corresponde a 34% da Demanda por eletricidade do Sistema Amazonense. Nesta pesquisa, avaliam-se os fatores relevantes para produção de eletricidade segundo estratégias documental, bibliográfica e de estudo de caso. Os dados foram obtidos junto às fontes oficiais como a Eletrobrás, INMET e MTE, trabalhos científicos sobre a área em estudo e os obtidos pela análise estatística ARDL. Tal análise tem sido muito usada a partir da versão publicada em 2001, por permitir estudar o relacionamento entre variáveis. Foi encontrada evidência de relacionamento de longo prazo entre eletricidade produzida, temperatura da zona urbana e número de postos de trabalho nos setores de serviços e comercial do município de Manaus. Para o setor industrial, o número de postos de trabalho não apresentou evidência de relacionamento com as outras variáveis. Foi calculado um modelo usando a técnica ARDL que pôde estimar a produção de energia elétrica com erro máximo de 3,7% se comparado com a realidade.