Present value based asset pricing models are explored empirically in this thesis. Three contributions are made. First, it is shown that a market timing strategy may be implemented in an excessively volatile market such as the S&P500. The main premise of the strategy is that asset prices may revert to the present value over time. The present value is computed in real-time where the present value variables (future dividends, dividend growth and the discount factor) are forecast from simple models. The strategy works well for monthly data and when dividends are forecast from autoregressive models. The performance of the strategy relies on how discount rates are empirically defined. When discount rates are defined by the rolling and recursive historic average of realized returns, the strategy performs well. The discount rate and dividend growth can also be derived using a structural approach. Using the Campbell and Shiller log-linearized present value equation, and assuming that expected and realized dividend growth are unit related, a state space model is constructed linking the price-dividend ratio to expected returns and expected dividend growth. The model parameters are estimated from the data and, are used to derive the filtered expected returns and expected dividend growth series. The present value is computed using the filtered series. The trading rule tends to perform worse in this case. Discount rates are again found to be the major determinant of its success. Although the structural approach offers a time series of discount rates which is less volatile, it is on average higher than that of the historical mean model. The filtered expected returns is a potential predictor of realized returns. The predictive performance of expected returns is compared to that of the price-dividend ratio. It is found that expected returns is not superior to the price-dividend ratio in forecasting returns both in-sample and out-of-sample. The predictive regression included both simple Ordinary Least Squares and Vector Autoregressions. The second contribution of this thesis is the modeling of expected returns using autoregressive fractionally integrated processes. According to the work of Granger and Joyeux(1980), aggregated series which are derived from utility maximization problems follow a Beta distribution. In the time series literature, it implies that the series may have a fractional order (I(d)). Autoregressive fractionally models may have better appeal than models which explicitly posit unit roots or no unit roots. Two models are presented. The first model, which incorporates an ARFIMA(p,d,q) within the present value through the state equations, is found to be highly unstable. Small sample size may be a reason for this finding. The second model involves predicting dividend growth from simple OLS models, and sequentially netting expected returns from the present value model. Based on the previous finding that expected returns may be a long memory process, the third contribution of this thesis derives a test of long memory based on the asymptotic properties of the variance of aggregated series in the context of the Geweke Porter-Hudak (1982) semiparametric estimator. The test makes use of the fact that pure long memory process will have the same autocorrelation across observations if the observations are drawn at repeated intervals to make a new series. The test is implemented using the Sieve-AR bootstrap which accommodates long range dependence in stochastic processes. The test is relatively powerful against both linear and nonlinear specifications in large samples.

做好財富管理需要一個穩健均衡的投資組合資產配置架構，在一個10-15年的景氣循環長期投資市場裡，做好投資組合資產配置，將能使資產配置的報酬率與波動率更趨於均衡與穩健的成長，會比隨投資市場環境的變動，而做單一市場或單一投資標的的集中投資，更能達到資產配置的均衡與穩健。 在財富管理的規畫中，以符合客戶的風險承受能力，來為客戶做均衡的資產配置，找出對客戶最有效率的投資組合，完成穩健均衡的資產配置，才能在不確定的投資市場中立於不敗之地； 資產配置雖然不能快速創造財富，但資產配置才能穩健的保護財富，投資是長期的累積，穩健增值是重點，資產配置才是王道。 藉由投資組合資產配置消除投資市場的非系統風險，若能正確的組合相關性低的投資資產，則在獲得相同的回報下，投資組合資產配置的投資風險可以低於集中投資的投資風險，更能讓高資產客戶的資產配置達到長期的均衡與穩健，並完成每階段的人生財務目標。

No description available.

Le choix du mode de développement est aujourd’hui au coeur de la réflexion stratégique des groupes hôteliers. Plusieurs options s’offrent aux décideurs : la pleine propriété des actifs immobiliers, la franchise, les mandats de gestion, ou les contrats de « sale and leaseback ». La question centrale de la thèse proposée est de savoir si la cession des actifs immobiliers (asset light) couplée à un mode de développement ayant une moindre intensité capitalistique est créatrice de valeur pour les actionnaires, en comparaison de la stratégie asset heavy qui regroupe la propriété et la gestion des unités hôtelières. La revue de littérature envisagée reposera sur un triple ancrage théorique : les théories de la firme (théorie des coûts de transaction, théorie des droits de propriété, théorie de l’agence et le modèle des compétences et des ressources), la théorie financière et la théorie immobilière. Une analyse des différents modes de gestion sera effectuée à la lumière de ces théories. Le mode de collecte de données reposera sur une logique expérimentale qui permettra de réaliser des simulations de l’impact de variables environnementales et sectorielles sur la performance et la création de valeur. Le travail sera réalisé sur le marché américain et le segment upper upscale. Les exercices de simulations seront complétés par des études statistiques qui permettront d’identifier les environnements favorisant l’une ou l’autre des méthodes et potentiellement d’arbitrer entre les modes light et heavy en fonction du couple risque/rentabilité. Ce premier travail sur la performance sera complété par la mesure de la création de valeur des différents modes de développement choisis. / The choice for hotel development modes is at the core of the current preoccupations of international hotel groups. They have few options to choose from: full ownership, franchise contracts, management contracts, or sale and leaseback contracts. The problematic raised in this dissertation is twofold: first, it wants to determine if asset light strategies, the less capital intensive development mode, create value for shareholders; second, it tries to compare and arbitrage between asset light and asset heavy strategies. The literature review is anchored on three theoretical pillars: the theory of the firm (transaction costs theory, property rights theory, agency theory, and model of resources and competencies), the financial theory, and the real estate theory. An analysis of the different development modes is conducted in the light of those theoretical inputs. The empirical analysis uses an experimental approach through a number of simulations that estimate the impact of both the macroeconomic and the sectoral environments on hotels’ performance and value creation processes. This analysis is performed using data from the US market and the upper upscale hotel segment. Simulations are supplemented with a statistical analysis aimed at, first, identifying the environments most likely to favor one or the other mode; and, second, at providing the grounds for a sound arbitrage between asset light and asset heavy strategies in conjunction with a risk/reward analysis. Measures of performance resulting from that study are completed with a thorough analysis of the value creation potential stemming from the two different hotel development modes.

This dissertation consists of two essays on predictability of asset prices. "Benchmarking problems and long horizon abnormal returns" and, "Low R-square in the cross section of expected returns". Long run abnormal returns following Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), Seasoned Equity Offers (SEO) and other firm level events are well documented in the finance literature. These findings are difficult to reconcile in an efficient markets world. I examine the seriousness of potential benchmarking errors on the measurement of abnormal returns. I find that the simpler, more parsimonious models perform better in practice and finds that excess performance is not predictable regardless of the APM. Thus, the long run underperformance following SEOs found in the literature is consistent with market efficiency because excess performance itself is not predictable. In the other essay, "Low R-square in the cross section of expected returns", I examine the “low R-square” phenomenon observed in the literature. CAPM predicts exact linear relationship between return and betas (SML). This means that estimated time series betas for firms should be related with firms' future returns. However, the estimated betas have almost no relationship with future returns. The cross-sectional R2 are surprising low (3% average) while time series R2 are higher (around 30 % average). He develops a simple asset pricing model that explains this phenomenon. Even in a perfect world where there are no errors in the benchmark measurement or estimation of the price of market risk the difference in R-squares can be quite large due to the difference in variance between the "market" and average returns. I document that market variance exceeds the variance of average returns, with few exceptions, for the last 74 years.

El impacto de las nuevas tecnologías junto con los nuevos modelos de negocio está cambiando la industria del sector financiero, uno de los nuevos emprendimientos de innovación son las criptomonedas, siendo la Bitcoin la más popular, ya que su principal característica es ser descentralizada pudiendo ser utilizada en diferentes partes del mundo. La presente investigación tiene por finalidad determinar si hay una relación estadística entre el precio de la Bitcoin y los activos de inversión e índices del mercado financiero durante el periodo de Enero 2015-Diciembre 2018, considerando la alta volatilidad del precio en los últimos dos años; y, si las variables hasta ahora conocidas como justificantes del precio serán las mismas para esta actualización del estudio de la criptomoneda considerando la posible presencia de una burbuja financiera en la Bitcoin. Para el desarrollo del modelo se empleó la metodología de investigación cuantitativa mediante un modelo de regresión. EL resultado fue un grado de asociación considerable con el Euro, Yuan, S&P500 y Petróleo WTI; sin embargo, al desarrollar el modelo estadístico se concluyó que las variables seleccionadas nos presentan causalidad sobre el precio de la criptomoneda. / The impact of new technologies along with new business models is changing the industry of the financial sector, one of the new innovation ventures are the cryptocurrencies, being the Bitcoin the most popular, as its main feature is to be decentralized and can be used in different parts of the world. The present investigation has for purpose determine if there is a statistical relation between the Bitcoin´s price and the assets of investment and indexes of the financial market during the period of January 2015-December 2018, considering the high volatility of the price in the last two years; and, if the variables till now known like justifying of the price will be the same for this update of the study of the criptocurrency considering the possible presence of a financial bubble in Bitcoin. For the development of the model there was used the methodology of quantitative investigation by means of a model of regression. The result was a degree of considerable association with the Euro, Yuan, S&P 500 and Oil WTI; nevertheless, on having developed the statistical model concluded that the selected variables us not present causality on the price of the criptocurrency. / Tesis

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2017 / This study assesses the effect of Asset Liability Management Strategies on Performance of Commercial Banks. That is, those factors that are responsible for differences between returns generated on assets and costs incurred on liabilities by banks in Lesotho. The study also investigates the impact of bank regulation on banks performance. The study results suggest that only one regulatory variable namely Capital adequacy ratio has a strong influence on the profitability of commercial banks in Lesotho. The other regulatory variable namely Liquidity ratio has a negative but statistically insignificant impact on banks’ performance while AML variable, Gap ratio, has positive but also statistically insignificant impact on banks performance. Furthermore, the control variables have positive, insignificant impact on banks performance. / MT2017

Thesis advisor: Fabio Schiantarelli / In the wake of the financial crisis of 2007-2009, academics and policymakers have worked to empirically quantify macro-financial linkages. This dissertation contributes to this debate by covering two broad themes. First, substantial changes in bank regulation and supervision typically follow financial crises. Quantifying the impact of these new policies is of paramount importance to academics and policymakers. To this end, my research in this area sheds light on the ways in which changes in financial stability policy ultimately affect the economy. Bank stress testing has become a major tool of supervisory policy in the past decade. The first chapter, The Real Effects of Stress Testing, uses the introduction of annual stress testing of large U.S. banks in 2009 as a quasi-experiment to examine whether bank supervisory policies affect real economic activity. While stress-tested banks reduced their risk exposure to large corporate loans, foreign banks mostly offset this shock and enabled firms to continue borrowing after the test. However, speculative grade firms that were highly exposed to stress-tested banks borrowed on worse terms after the test, and subsequently reduced fixed investment and employment. In contrast, highly exposed investment grade firms received new loans and expanded intangible investment. This paper provides insights into the effects of stress testing on the reallocation of risks in the financial system and the consequences for real economic activity. The structure of the U.S. mortgage market has experienced dramatic changes in recent years, as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the major government-sponsored enterprises or GSEs) faced substantial reforms to their business practices. An important feature of regulatory reform included changing the pricing of loan guarantees on mortgage-backed securities insured by the GSEs, in particular removing the subsidy paid by small lenders to large lenders in 2012. The second chapter of this dissertation, Lender Cross-Subsidization and Credit Supply in the Fannie Mae MBS Market (co-authored with Igor Karagodsky), shows that the removal of this subsidy resulted in a relative increase in mortgage lending by small lenders. However, states with relatively higher concentrations of large lenders experienced relative reductions in credit following the removal of these subsidies. This research underscores an important link between lender market power and credit supply. Understanding the drivers of the fluctuations in bond returns is a central question in finance. Theoretically, unexpected bond returns should reflect either changes in expectations of future short-term rates or future compensation for risk. The third chapter of this dissertation, Survey Forecasts and Bond Return Decompositions, revisits this question using survey forecasts of professional economists to measure expectations of interest rates and returns, rather than with a statistical model. Two main results emerged from this analysis: (1) News about future short-term interest rates explains relatively more of the variation in unexpected excess bond returns for short-maturity bonds relative to long-maturity bonds. (2) The share of news explained by future short-term interest rates increases with horizon for all maturities. This analysis contributes to the recent academic literature that highlights the importance of subjective expectations in understanding asset-price movements. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2019. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

In the water utility sector, traditional asset management focusses on the maintenance and provision of physical assets (infrastructure) that allow water companies to deliver their services, meet their customers’ expectations and achieve their economic objectives. Nevertheless, the serviceability of the sector heavily depends on natural elements (e.g. rain, land). The importance of Natural Capital (i.e. the natural systems and their deriving ecosystem services) has been at the core of policy recommendations which have shaped regulatory changes in the water sector of England and Wales. Water companies are now required to explicitly account for and report their inter-dependencies on the natural environment and adopt systems-oriented approaches in their Asset Management Programmes (AMPs). These reforms will enable the sector to become resilient to the environmental and societal challenges faced at urban and rural contexts. Responding to the regulatory demands, the research introduces a novel and structured approach for integrating natural capital in the asset management portfolio of the water industry. The work is built on a transdisciplinary research framework and demonstrates that a new scale needs to be considered for the implementation of Holistic Asset Management: the water basin or catchment. A Catchment Metabolism modelling schema was created, grounded on the principles of Integrated Catchment Management and ecosystems services. The schema is based on the robust synthesis of concepts, tools and methods from a spectrum of disciplines. These include Industrial Ecology, Water Accounting, Environmental Regional Input-Output Analysis, hydrology, software engineering and functional modelling. Catchment Metabolism introduces a holistic perspective in asset management and expands its scope. The schema enables the conceptualisation, modelling and management of catchments as complex asset systems. It, thus, forms the ground for structured collaboration among experts for integrated water resources planning and decision-making. The schema allows for the design and implementation of catchment-based strategies and the assessment of their environmental performance. An industrial case study for a pilot catchment system (Poole Harbour Catchment) is used to demonstrate the application of the Catchment Metabolism. Alternative strategies for nitrogen pollution mitigation are assessed. The application of winter cover crops across the catchment appears to be the optimum strategy. The case study demonstrates the practical and modular implementation of the schema, reveals its methodological strengths and limitations and evaluates its applicability in the asset management planning and decision-making of the water sector.

Mean-variance criterion in optimization AL problem aims at maximizing the final surplus; asset value minus liability value, subject to a given variance of the final surplus or, equivalently, minimizing the variance of the final surplus subject to a given expected final surplus. The stochastic optimal control theory is employed to analytically solve the AL management problem in continuous-time setting. Then the comparison of derived optimal AL management policy and the literatures are examined and the discrepancy in objectives between equity holders and investors of a mutual fund is discussed finally. / Portfolio selection in asset-liability (AL) management is to seek the best allocation of wealth among a basket of securities with taking into account the liabilities. There are a lot of portfolio selection criteria among in the literature. The two of them are mean-variance criterion and Roy's safety-first principle. This thesis investigates the optimal asset allocation for an investor who is facing an uncontrollable liability under either one of these two portfolio constructions. The relation between these two different principles are discussed in the context of AL management. / Roy's safety-first principle (Roy, 1956) asserts that the investor would specify a threshold level of the final surplus below which the outcome is regarded as disaster. The objective is then to minimize the ruin probability or the chance of disaster subject to a constraint that the expected final surplus is higher than the threshold. Roy however solves this problem by minimizing an upper bound of the ruin probability based on the Bienayme-Chebycheff inequality. With the same consideration of Roy, the analytical trading strategy of the safety-first. AL management, problem, in the sense of surplus, under both continuous- and multi-period-time settings are derived. We link this surrogated safety-first principle to the mean-variance ones. / The final objective of this thesis attacks the genuine safety-first AL problem. Without replacing the ruin probability in the objective function by its upper bound, we use a martingale approach and consider the funding ratio which is the total wealth divided by the total liability. Two important situations in the literature are investigated. In the first situation, the mean constraint of the original problem is removed, We show that removing the mean constraint makes the problem become a target reaching problem that can be solved analytically. However, the essence of safety-first is lost. In the second case in which the mean constraint is there, the problem becomes ill-posed and is then solved using an approximation using a martingale approach. The approximation relies on the assumption that the investor gives up unreasonably high profits and sets an upper bounded for the final funding ratio. / Chiu, Mei Choi. / "July 2007." / Adviser: Duan Li. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 69-02, Section: B, page: 1304. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 121-126). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. [Ann Arbor, MI] : ProQuest Information and Learning, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest dissertations and theses, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract in English and Chinese. / School code: 1307.