Reward prediction errors are quantitative signed terms that express the difference between the value of an obtained outcome and the expected value that was placed on it prior to its receipt. Positive reward prediction errors constitute reward, negative reward prediction errors constitute punishment. Reward prediction errors have been shown to be powerful drivers of reinforcement learning in formal models and there is thus a strong reason to believe they are used in the brain. Isolating such neural signals stands to help elucidate how reinforcement learning is implemented in the brain, and may ultimately shed light on individual differences, psychopathologies of reward such as addiction and depression, and the apparently non-normative behaviour under risk described by behavioural economics. In the present thesis, I used the event related potential technique to isolate and study electrophysiological components whose behaviour resembled reward prediction errors. I demonstrated that a candidate component, “feedback related negativity”, occurring 250 to 350 ms after receipt of reward or punishment, showed such behaviour. A meta-analysis of the existing literature on this component, using a novel technique of “great grand averaging”, supported this view. The component showed marked asymmetries however, being more responsive to reward than punishment and more responsive to appetitive rather than aversive outcomes. I also used novel data-driven techniques to examine activity outside the temporal interval associated with the feedback related negativity. This revealed a later component responding solely to punishments incurred in a Pavlovian learning task. It also revealed numerous salience-encoding components which were sensitive to a prediction error’s size but not its sign.

The diploma thesis deals with the issue of immigration and its impact on the economy in Australia, Great Britain and the United States of America. In the introduction, various migration theories explaining the migration motifs and immigration policies, whose specifics and the type of requirements of the monitored countries sheds the composition of incoming individuals, are discussed. This profile is complemented by the analysis itself, which examines the socio-economic factors of foreign-born population living in the monitored countries. This analysis is carried out by cross-sectional data comparisons, but it monitors the arrival times of individuals, providing an overview within the timeline. In order to determine the impact of immigration on employment and average wages, regression was used, but this effect was in no way proven beyond the impact on average wages in Australia.

本研究針對台股期貨與現貨價差、成交量與技術指標融合之期貨交易策略進行獲利分析，以台股期貨與現貨的價差為主體，融合傳統技術指標和量價關係作為進場買賣台股期貨的訊號與指標，採用資料為2001年至2016年加權指數與台指期貨一分鐘資料，經過實證研究後發現，正價差放空與逆價差做多其績效表現優於正價差做多與逆價差放空，這與坊間的使用方法大為不同，另外經過實證結果，我們可以得知，若要以量價關係作為交易策略與指標，長期下來成交量增加做多與成交量減少放空績效較佳，若要以均線作為交易策略與指標，長期下來指數在均線之上做多與指數在均線之下放空績效較佳，也經由實證結果得知，價差策略可以藉由價差濾網與考量除權息因素進行調整，使價差策略績效表現更為突出，另一方面，也實證出價差策略融合成交量形成的新策略，績效表現優於價差策略融合均線形成的策略，本研究最後將價差策略融合成交量形成的新策略，考慮了價差濾網與除權息因素進行改良，並且與大盤績效進行比較，實證結果得知價差策略融合成交量作為的交易策略，績效表現可以擊敗大盤，我們最後將資料區分為兩個時間區間，將價差策略融合成交量的策略進行穩健性檢定，發現在兩個不同時間區間下，策略的績效無明顯差異，因此我們可以說此策略長期下來具有穩定性，這有利於未來進行交易。 / This study focus on profit analysis of futures trading strategy with stock price spread, quantity and technical indicators in Taiwan. With the price spread between the stock index and the futures as main topic, we fusion traditional technical analysis indicators and the relationship of trading volume and price as our signal and indicator to setup a futures trading strategy. Our research data use one-minute data frequency of Taiwan weighted stock index and Taiwan index futures from 2001 to 2016 as analysis period. The empirical result shows that to short sale if bull spread is occurred and to going long if bear spread shows up have better performance than its opposite activity, which is different from the method people use in general. This study also finds that if we attempt to utilize the relationship of trading volume and price as trading strategy and indicator, going long if trading volume increase and to short sale if trading volume decrease will work better in long run period. If we are going to use the moving average as trading strategy and indicators, that we go long for price above the moving average of the stock index and short sale for price below the moving average of the stock will more proper in long run period. Empirical results also demostrate that through spread filter and ex-dividend factor consideration spread strategy can be adjusted accordingly so that spread strategy performance can be more prominent. On the other hand, this study also proves that the performance of new strategy, formed through integration of spread strategy and trading volume strategy, is better than the integration of spread strategy and moving average strategy. Finally, this study integrates the spread strategy and trading volume strategy to formed new strategy, taking into account the improvement of the spread filter and the ex-dividend factor, then compares it with the market performance. The results show that the spread strategy integration with trading volume as a trading strategy and performance indicators can beat the market. We first divide the data into two cycles, then we perfom robustness test to the integration of spread strategy and trading volume strategy. We find out that under both cycles the strategy shows similar result. Thus, we can conclude that this strategy is stabile in long run and would be beneficial in future trading.

Dans cette thèse, nous exploitons les outils de la théorie des probabilités et de la géométrie stochastique pour analyser des algorithmes opérant sur les tessellations. Ce travail est divisé entre deux thèmes principaux, le premier traite de la navigation dans une tessellation de Delaunay et dans son dual, le diagramme de Voronoï avec des implications pour les algorithmes de localisation spatiales et de routage dans les réseaux en ligne. Nous proposons deux nouveaux algorithmes de navigation dans la triangulation de Delaunay, que nous appelons Pivot Walk et Cone Walk. Pour Cone Walk, nous fournissons une analyse en moyenne détaillée avec des bornes explicites sur les propriétés de la pire marche possible effectuée par l'algorithme sur une triangulation de Delaunay aléatoire d'une région convexe bornée. C'est un progrès significatif car dans l'algorithme Cone Walk, les probabilités d'utiliser un triangle ou un autre au cours de la marche présentent des dépendances complexes, dépendances inexistantes dans d'autres marches. La deuxième partie de ce travail concerne l'étude des propriétés extrémales de tessellations aléatoires. En particulier, nous dérivons les premiers et derniers statistiques d'ordre pour les boules inscrites dans les cellules d'un arrangement de droites Poissonnien; ce résultat a des implications par exemple pour le hachage respectant la localité. Comme corollaire, nous montrons que les cellules minimisant l'aire sont des triangles. / In this thesis, we leverage the tools of probability theory and stochastic geometry to investigate the behavior of algorithms on geometric tessellations of space. This work is split between two main themes, the first of which is focused on the problem of navigating the Delaunay tessellation and its geometric dual, the Voronoi diagram. We explore the applications of this problem to point location using walking algorithms and the study of online routing in networks. We then propose and investigate two new algorithms which navigate the Delaunay triangulation, which we call Pivot Walk and Cone Walk. For Cone Walk, we provide a detailed average-case analysis, giving explicit bounds on the properties of the worst possible path taken by the algorithm on a random Delaunay triangulation in a bounded convex region. This analysis is a significant departure from similar results that have been obtained, due to the difficulty of dealing with the complex dependence structure of localized navigation algorithms on the Delaunay triangulation. The second part of this work is concerned with the study of extremal properties of random tessellations. In particular, we derive the first and last order-statistics for the inballs of the cells in a Poisson line tessellation. This result has implications for algorithms involving line tessellations, such as locality sensitive hashing. As a corollary, we show that the cells minimizing the area are triangles.

The thesis describes interactions and relationships between selected economic indicators. These indicators are the gross domestic product and the average gross monthly wage. The analysis of these selected indicators, are made for the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The work has four main parts, which are divided into several other sections. The first defines the concept of national accounting, the second part contents gross domestic product, the method of its calculating and the frequency of compilation. In the third section is described the field theory of wages and salaries and the concepts such as minimum wage, the average gross monthly wage and median wage and salary are defined. In this two chapters are compared selected countries on the basis of the tables and graphs of selected indicators. The last chapter analyzes the relationships between selected economic indicators in selected countries based on quarterly data from the years 2001-2013.

The aim of this paper is to investigate various versions of the Phillips curve and their inflation forecasting ability for Euro Area. We consider autoregressive distributed lag models and use two types of trend estimation -- successive (the trend is estimated before the remaining parameters are) and join, using exponential smoothing. The versions of the Phillips curve are evaluated by rolling and recursive window methods, various selection criteria for lag variables and different combination of the inflation indicators. To evaluate the forecasted values, we calculate the RMSE in three 7-year periods: 1993-1999 (run up Euro area), 2000-2006 (stable inflation period) and 2007-2013 (financial crisis). According to all our modifications, we find some models which achieve satisfying results in terms of the RMSE, albeit not for all forecasting periods. We notice that some models are satisfactory only in the stable period however not in the periods with low inflation and vice versa.

The topic of this diploma thesis is the analysis of the factors influencing the mortgage market in the Czech Republic. The first part explains the basic terms related to the mortgage loan. Then follow characteristics of different mortgage loans which a client is able to get on the local market. Next there is a description of the history of mortgage lending in the Czech Republic and its development to the present day. The first chapter of the analytical part defines the factors which has influence on the development of the mortgage market. In the next chapter these macroeconomic factors are analyzed and evaluated. The objective of the work is to create a simplified model describing the interaction of macroeconomic variables and the mortgage market, used to estimate the future development and managing banking risk.

Diploma thesis deals with the valuation of the automotive company Automotive lighting, s.r.o for the management needs. The estimated value refers to October 2012. The basis for the valuation is strategic and financial analysis. The results will be taken into account for establishment of the financial plan, which will be used in the valuation process. Emphasis is placed on yield methods using free cash flow to the firm(FCFF) and economic value added EVA. Both methods are compared with book value of the company.

Today's dynamic period requires sufficient amount of high-quality information to make right decision. Valuation of a company may be one of the sources. It is a result of complex valuation of a company and its activity from different points of view. Information gained during the process valuation can be used to effective management of a company, too. The main aim of this thesis is to evaluate the company's environment, the market where the business runs as well as the analyses its future possibilities. Following historic data, strategic and financial analyses will be carried out and these results will serve for company value determination, using the yield method. Gained information will be valuable as far as company's management as well as investors are concerned. The result lies in historical progression, contemporary situation, potential and future prediction valuation. Recognized company's value will serve as the final output.

This dissertation work focuses on evaluation of the performance and credibility of domestic pension funds. It includes information about pension systems in six selected countries in the world, specifically Chile, Hungary, Switzerland, Poland, Sweden and Slovakia, and culminates with a proposal for pension reform in the Czech Republic. The evaluation of the performance of pension funds is based on experience with measuring performance in twenty-three countries of the world processed for the OECD and cites original basis materials for proposals for the regulation of pension funds in the Czech Republic. Setting of indicators is preceded by an analysis of measurements of performance by the Association of Pension Funds in the Czech Republic and the Research Institute of Labour and Social Affairs. The most important proposed indicators include the actual result in relation to the participants' funds, which captures the influence of changes in the market values of financial assets, and the indicator of competence covers obligations, reflecting the influence of changes in costs during subsequent periods, which include yet undistributed commission for mediators of pension insurance. For a comparison of benefits and risks, mutual funds denominated in CZK were selected, which were verified as a suitable alternative to long-term saving. The method of evaluation of pension funds itself is based on explanation, evaluation and selection of favourable indicators for determining the rating of domestic pension funds, which clients of pension funds could use as a method for evaluating the credibility and benefits of a specific domestic pension fund for the purpose of securing it in retirement age.