Abstract The resilience, or sustainability, of an environmental system depends on key factors remaining within critical thresholds. Current approaches to assessing the condition and trend of environmental systems rely on expert knowledge of system performance and subjective interpretation. Computer simulation models of natural resource systems offer a way to integrate system properties, and ecological theory and relationships, with long-term climate and rainfall information to simulate system performance within a consistent framework. Financial accounting methods, such as balance sheets and ratio analysis, have been developed to assess overall businesses viability and offer a potential tool for assessing the sustainability of natural systems, providing key accounting principles and assumptions can be reasonably met. This thesis explores the integration of accounting and ecological theory in a balance sheet framework for sustainability accounting using non-financial terms with a view to contributing to the sustainable management of natural resources within dynamic systems. A generic approach to constructing environmental balance sheets was developed and tested at a range of scales (field to catchment). Sensitivity analysis of the models was used to determine key factors and critical thresholds relating to system resilience. These values were then used to construct the balance sheets. The current ratio was then used to identify if the system was being managed sustainably. A current ratio (assets/liabilities) greater than 1.0, derived from the balance sheet, was shown to denote more resilient, and hence sustainable, systems. Case studies used were wheat cropping in the Maranoa area of Queensland, Australia, and the Bonogin Valley in the Gold Coast, Queensland Australia The same approach to constructing balance sheets worked across all scales from farm to catchment. . The approach was then used to develop a sustainability assessment of the Coomera catchment of the Gold Coast to consider how natural resource management and urbanisation is affecting catchment resilience. A series of models was used to develop the accounts: a grazing systems model – SGS; a cropping systems model - APSIM-sugar; and an existing catchment hydrology and water quality model - EMSS. The approach demonstrated that sugarcane cropping systems within the catchment were not likely to be sustainable without significant input of nitrogen, but that the grazing systems were. Furthermore, the overall catchment was likely to be sustainable (2002). This finding is consistent with an independent field-based assessment of the catchment conducted by the Healthy Waterways Partnership of South East Queensland. The urban development anticipated in the catchment by 2020, did not appear to have a significant affect as measured by long-term trends in flow frequency and water quality. The use of ratio analysis provided a dimensionless variable that related to the resilience of a parcel of land or catchment. These values were able to be spatially integrated, using an area weighted median, to provide an overall estimate of resilience of land use for a farm or a catchment. However, it was considered simpler to model the catchment of interest as a whole rather than to combine ratios from a series of catchment sub-models. The availability of appropriate comprehensive systems models may prove a limitation for application to all land uses especially native bushland systems. However, the approach developed in this thesis provides a robust and consistent framework for exploring system resilience and sustainability in a way that can augment existing approaches to natural resource assessments of condition and trend.

Esta tesis esta compuesta por tres capítulos. Los dos primeros capítulos estudian los efectos macroeconómicos de una consolidación fiscal y estímulos fiscales cuando la deuda privada es elevada. El tercer capítulo, estudia proyecciones de deuda púbica para el caso español bajo diferentes escenarios macroeconómicos. En el primer capítulo se analiza los efectos macroeconómicos de diferentes planes de consolidación fiscal en los que el gobierno reduce de forma gradual la ratio deuda pública-PIB y el sector privado está altamente endeudado. Lo resultados muestran que en el largo plazo, la consolidación fiscal genera beneficios en términos de output que son mayores en el caso en el que el sector público este altamente endeudado. En el corto plazo, la efectividad de la política fiscal en un escenario de deuda alta, depende del instrumento fiscal utilizado. Finalmente se analiza el bienestar social, encontrando que la política de consolidación fiscal produce una ganancia en términos de bienestar cuando el gasto público o el impuesto al consumo se utilizan como instrumento y este bienestar es mayor en el caso de endeudamiento privado alto. Sin embargo, cuando el instrumento fiscal son los impuestos al trabajo o al capital, se produce una pérdida de bienestar que es amplificada en un escenario de endeudamiento alto. En el segundo capítulo, se estudia como el tamaño de los multiplicadores fiscales depende del nivel de endeudamiento privado. Este artículo contribuye al debate de los efectos de los estímulos fiscales demostrando que el impacto de las políticas fiscales depende del nivel de endeudamiento, considerando el endeudamiento de los hogares y empresas. Finalmente, en el tercer capítulo se examina las proyecciones de deuda para la economía española bajo diferentes escenarios macroeconómicos. Se encuentra que la deuda aumentará hasta un 174% en 2035 si se cumple el escenario macroeconómico que predice la Comisión Europea. En el caso de considerar una subida de impuestos, la deuda disminuye pero lejos de llegar a los niveles pre-COVID.

The aim of this thesis is to identify and assess the reasons of the Turkish financial crises based on various crises model explanations including the first, the second and the third generation models. It is argued that following factors played a crucial role in triggering crises in Turkey. Firstly, under the weak sustainable fiscal policies, implementation of the exchange rate based stabilization program caused the increase in vulnerabilities in the sectoral balance sheets and thus increased the prospective deficit considerations. Secondly, as seen on the international evidence, over-appreciation of the domestic currency put pressure on the current account deficit and other macroeconomic indicators. Thirdly, domestic and external factors also worsen the perceptions on the sustainability of the disinflation program leading to sharp capital outflows. Within this context, fiscal and current account sustainability are empirically tested under the light of the structural break analysis and it is found that fiscal stance and the current account deficit are both weakly sustainable implying the necessity of policy regime changes before the crises period. Having assessed the structural problems of the government, corporate and banking sector&rsquo / s balance sheets, intersectoral risk matrix was constructed to analyze the risk accumulation in the sectors considering the impacts of the exchange rate based disinflation program and the ongoing economic imbalances. Both mismanagement of the risks and the structural weaknesses of some banks led to the deterioration of the expectations about the continuity of the program, by increasing tensions and prospective deficit perceptions in the markets. With speculative attacks, a sharp capital outflow was triggered the crises. It is concluded that the causes of the 2000-2001 Turkish financial crises can be interpreted as an example of financial crises model encompassing all elements of the earlier models except seignorage issues.

Systemic risk is a complex topic, with a large number of variables and constraints. In this thesis we introduce an agent-based network to study the effects of financial shocks on the financial network. The model takes into consideration the repurchase agreement (repo) market and rehypothecation. We introduce a financial network consisting of financial agents who are connected through direct channels (bilateral contracts) and indirect channels (markets). Each fi- nancial agent has a balance sheet with liquid assets (cash), collateral (bonds, shares), reverse repo assets, fixed assets (loans and mortgages) on the asset side and repo loans, deposits and equities on the liability side. Agents (i.e., banks) need to satisfy constraints on (i) liquidity, which deals with financial shocks, (ii) collateral, related to repo liabil- ities, rehypothecation, and (iii) solvency constraints, ensuring that equity is positive. Liquidity constrain can be broken by a financial shock (e.g., a bank run), while the collateral constraint can be broken by hoarding credit and collateral price reduction. When liquidity and collateral constraints are broken the financial agent will try to fix them through recalling reverse repos and firesale of fixed assets. Banks that fail to fix their constraints by the end of the day will be considered defaulted. We introduce netting and novation techniques to deal with defaulted banks and lower the stress on the financial markets. In the netting step we lower the exposure of financial agents by removing cycles in the repo liabilities between banks, while in the novation we redistribute the ownership of bilateral contracts and settle any residuals that are left. We also establish that, under certain conditions on the set of defaulted banks, that the novation step is order indifferent. Different network topologies and balance sheet compositions are tested under several financial shocks to check the robustness of the financial network under our framework. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T18:40:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jose Martins.pdf: 1227267 bytes, checksum: e83d12cae47e333cd98b1d457030295a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-05-16 / The main purpose of this master s dissertation is to apply the economic/financial analysis techniques to consecutive balance sheets and income statements of commercial and multiple banks in the Brazilian financial system, in constant currency, and to analyze the results obtained. In order to achieve that main purpose, we realized a conceptual and theoretical review of the financial intermediation system, especially the components financial markets and institutions and the interest rates and their term structures and yield curves. We also effected a review of the account plan for the Brazilian financial system institutions, with special emphasis on the general accounting standards, list of accounts and their functions and basic structures of published balance sheets and income statements. In addition, we reviewed management concepts and practices applied to financial institutions as well as economic/financial analysis indicators adapted to financial statements of financial institutions. Although focused on an academic research where we recorded the views of some authors on the main concepts, restrictions and techniques related to the subject, we also expressed our own opinion in some situations based on personal experience acquired in specific segments of the Brazilian financial system over time. In the empirical testing we applied the methods of horizontal and vertical analysis of balance sheets, economic/financial indices and value-added indicators to the balance sheets and income statements of six major commercial and multiple banks in the Brazilian financial system for the fiscal year of 2004 and 2005, in 2005 purchasing power. The trial reveals that the analysis of financial institutions in the Brazilian financial system conducted on the published financial statements is effective, despite the limited information contained on the annual abridged accounting reports / O objetivo geral desta dissertação de mestrado é aplicar as técnicas de análise econômico-financeira a balanços patrimoniais e demonstrações de resultados consecutivos de bancos comerciais e múltiplos do sistema financeiro nacional, em moeda constante, e analisar os resultados procedentes. Para atingir o objetivo geral da dissertação, realizamos uma revisão conceitual e teórica do sistema de intermediação financeira, com destaque aos mercados e instituições financeiras componentes e às taxas de juros e suas estruturas temporais e curvas de rendimento. Procedemos, também, a uma revisão do plano contábil das instituições do sistema financeiro nacional, com ênfase às normas gerais de contabilidade, elenco e função das contas e estruturas dos balanços e das demonstrações de resultados sintéticos de divulgação. Realizamos, ainda, uma revisão dos conceitos e práticas de gestão aplicada a instituições financeiras e, bem assim, dos indicadores de análise econômico-financeira adaptados às demonstrações contábeis de instituições financeiras. Embora focalizados numa pesquisa de natureza acadêmica, na qual registramos os pontos de vista de alguns autores sobre os principais conceitos, restrições e técnicas relacionadas ao assunto, exteriorizamos, ainda, em algumas situações, nossa própria opinião, baseada na experiência pessoal adquirida em segmentos específicos do sistema financeiro nacional, ao longo do tempo. Na verificação empírica, aplicamos os métodos de análise horizontal e vertical de balanços, os índices econômico-financeiros e os indicadores de valor agregado aos balanços patrimoniais e demonstrações de resultados de seis grandes bancos comerciais e múltiplos do sistema financeiro nacional, nos exercícios sociais de 2004 e 2005, em moeda de 2005. O teste experimental constata que a análise de instituições financeiras do sistema financeiro nacional, realizada a partir dos demonstrativos contábeis de publicação é eficaz, não obstante as limitações de informações inerentes aos relatórios contábeis sintéticos em geral

Submitted by Celso Magalhaes (celsomagalhaes@ufrrj.br) on 2017-06-07T16:41:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2007 - Fabr?cio Carvalho C?pola.pdf: 2070975 bytes, checksum: 0d2e6d039491999ba50d785d7993b09a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-07T16:41:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2007 - Fabr?cio Carvalho C?pola.pdf: 2070975 bytes, checksum: 0d2e6d039491999ba50d785d7993b09a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-12-28 / Today, the society itself charges sistematically an ethical and coherent posture on the part from the companies and its managers, because is even stronger the feeling that the organizations are inserted in a social context which envolves its various stakeholders. In past times, an accident which had caused environmental damages could be unseen. The child work or massive demissions did not fill many space in the media or in the popular mind. It means that, questions that long ago did not conect with the decision-making process and were irrelevant to the business sucess became crucial. On this panorama, concepts of social and environmental responsibility gains notoriety e consolidates itself even more. In this context this research is inserted. It is made a study of a comparative behavior, during the years of 2003, 2004 and 2005, among six major companies from the Brazil siderurgical sector, using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), with the aim to verify the social and environmental performance of the companies. It is searched what efficiency of each company in the conversion of investment capacity (input), measured by the net income or the operational result, in social and environmental benefits (outputs), measured by the internal and external social indicators. The study logics is to observe the relation between investment capacity and social and environmental benefits, in a way that the higher the benefits to a lower investment capacity, the higher will be the efficiency and, therefore, the company social and environmental performance. Besides, a top social and environmental performance is direclty associated in generate the maximum of social and environmental benefits, comparativily, given to the investment capacity of the company. The results the study show that Gerdau (top benchmark) and CSN are the best ones and Acesita is the worst in terms of social and environmental performance. Besides, the environmental investment is the variable which needs more increases / Hoje, a sociedade cobra sistematicamente uma postura ?tica e coerente por parte das empresas e de seus gestores, pois ? cada vez mais forte o sentimento de que as organiza??es est?o inseridas num contexto social que envolve seus diversos stakeholders. Em ?pocas passadas, um acidente que causasse danos ambientais poderia passar despercebido. O trabalho infantil ou demiss?es em massa ocupavam pouco espa?o na m?dia ou no ide?rio popular. Ou seja, quest?es que outrora n?o entravam no processo de decis?o e eram irrelevantes para o sucesso do neg?cio se tornaram cruciais. Neste cen?rio, conceitos de responsabilidade socioambiental ganham notoriedade e se consolidam cada vez mais. ? neste contexto que se insere esta pesquisa. Realiza-se um estudo do comportamento comparativo, nos anos de 2003, 2004 e 2005, entre seis grandes empresas do ramo de siderurgia no Brasil, utilizando An?lise Envolt?ria de Dados (DEA), com o objetivo de verificar o desempenho socioambiental das mesmas. Procura-se verificar qual a efici?ncia de cada empresa na convers?o da capacidade de investimento (input), medida pela receita ou pelo resultado operacional, em benef?cios s?cio-ambientais (outputs), medidos pelos indicadores sociais internos e externos e pelos indicadores ambientais. A l?gica do estudo ? observar a rela??o entre capacidade de investimento e benef?cios s?cio-ambientais, de forma que quanto maiores forem os benef?cios para uma menor capacidade de investimento, maior ser? a efici?ncia e, por conseguinte, o desempenho socioambiental da empresa. Logo, um desempenho socioambiental superior est? diretamente relacionado em gerar o m?ximo de benef?cios s?cio- ambientais, comparativamente falando, dado a capacidade de investimento da empresa. Os resultados do estudo mostram que a Gerdau (principal benchmark) e a CSN s?o as melhores e a Acesita a de pior desempenho s?cio-ambiental. Al?m disso, o investimento ambiental ? a vari?vel que mais precisa de incrementos

Thesis (MComm (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study focuses on banking book interest rate risk management, more specifically shortterm interest rate risk management problems. This type of risk is induced by the inflation targeting policy of the South African Reserve Bank. As a result, inflation leads to an uncertain interest rate cycle and a period of uncertain interest rate levels as it relates to lending and borrowing products in the South African commercial banking sector. The lending rates of most South African commercial banks are tied to the prime overdraft rate. The borrowing rates are linked to the money market rates such as the Johannesburg Interbank Agreed Rate (JIBAR) which is indirectly affected by the prime overdraft rate. Hence, lending and borrowing rates are related to the repo-rate. Furthermore, a fixed relationship exists between the prime overdraft rate and the repo-rate. The monetary policy committee meets every two months during the year to make inflation and repo-rate adjustments, as stipulated in the inflation targeting policy. A subject portfolio containing fixed-rate loans, advances and floating-rate deposits is exposed to the change of the repo-rate. This short-term banking book interest rate risk is defined based on the fact that the repo-rate adjustment occurs every two months, the banking book risk management is short term focused, and hedging instruments against interest rate risk are short term dated contracts. Such a short term risk may have a negative impact on the bank’s profitability. The study starts with a review of the bank risk management processes, and then discusses the enterprise risk management framework that guides the formation of the risk management processes and systems. In order to benchmark against international risk management practices, a comparative analysis is carried out to evaluate the risk management tendencies of bank risk management in South Africa and globally. The empirical findings reveal that most banks (i.e. eighty per cent of all local banks) manage the short-term interest rate risk by following the same process as the interest rate risk in general. The key elements (risk identification, measurement, mitigation and monitoring and reporting) of the banking book interest rate risk management are not linked together as a systematic process. This is not in line with the Basel II Accord to manage market risks through a process approach. The study also proposes a generic short-term interest rate risk management framework and in doing so, addresses some of the weaknesses of current risk management practices. Based on this framework, the South African banks may develop their own processes to manage such short-term banking book interest rate risk exposure. Some of the problems of bank risk management that come to light from the empirical findings, are summarised in the last chapter and may be considered for future research. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie fokus op die probleme van die bankboek rentekoersrisikobestuur, meer spesifiek die korttermyn rentekoers risikobbestuursprobleme. Hierdie tipe risiko word deur die inflasieteikenraamwerk beleid van die Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwebank veroorsaak. Dit veroorsaak ‘n tydperk van onsekere rentekoersvlakke veral sover dit uitleen- en leenprodukte in die Suid-Afrikaanse kommersiële banksektor aangaan. Die uitleenkoerse van die meeste Suid-Afrikaanse kommersiële banke is aan die prima bankoortrekkingskoers gekoppel. Die leningstariewe is aan die geldmarkkoerse soos die Johannesburgse Interbank Ooreengekome Koers (JIBOK) gekoppel wat indirek geraak word deur die prima bankoortrekkingskoers. Uitleen- en leenkoerse is redelik afhanklik van die repo-koers waar laasgenoemde ‘n redelike vaste verwantskap met die prima bankoortrekkingskoers het. Die monetêre beleidkomitee vergader elke twee maande van die jaar om inflasie en repokoers aanpassings te maak, ooreenkomstig die inflasieteiken beleid. 'n Bepaalde portefeulje met vasterente lenings, voorskotte en vlottende koers deposito’s is blootgestel aan die verandering in die repokoers. Hierdie korttermyn rentekoersrisiko van die bankboek word gedefinieer op grond van die feit dat die repo-koers aanpassing elke twee maande gebeur. Die bankboek risikobestuur het ‘n korttermyn fokus, en verskansingsinstrumente teen rentekoersrisiko is korttermyn kontrakte. So 'n korttermyn risiko kan 'n negatiewe impak op die bank se winsgewendheid hê. In hierdie studie word bankrisikobestuur prosesse beskou. Die risikobestuursraamwerk wat die basis vorm van die risikobestuursprosesse en stelsels word aangespreek. Om 'n idee te vorm van die huidige internasionale risikobestuurspraktyke of tendense by banke, word die state van internasionale en oorsese banke kortliks beskou. Die empiriese bevindinge uit die opname dui daarop dat die meeste banke (d.w.s tagtig persent van alle plaaslike banke) die korttermyn rentekoersrisiko nie afsonderlik van rentekoersrisikobestuur in die algemeen bestuur nie. Die sleutelelemente van die risikobestuursproses (risiko identifisering, mitigasie, implementering, monitering en verslagdoening) kom wel voor maar die bankboek rentekoersrisikobestuur is nie gekoppel as 'n sistemastiese proses nie. Dit blyk dat hierdie situasie na alle waarskynlikheid nie in lyn is met die Basel II akkoord om markrisiko's deur 'n prosesbenadering, te bestuur nie. Die studie stel ook ‘n generiese raamwerk voor vir die bestuur van korttermyn rentekoersrisiko wat dan ook van die swakhede van die huidige risikobestuurspraktyke aanspreek. Op grond van hierdie raamwerk, kan die Suid-Afrikaanse banke dit oorweeg om hul eie prosesse te ontwikkel vir die bestuur van bankboek rentekoersrisiko blootstelling. Sommige navorsingsprobleme van bank risikobestuur wat uit die empiriese bevindinge aan die lig gekom het, word in die laaste hoofstuk opgesom en kan vir verdere navorsing in die toekoms oorweeg word.

The thesis analyses problems of eurozone after the beginning of financial crisis in 2008, which continuously changed into economic and debt crisis. The thesis considers eurozone in aggregate and closer focuses on so called GIIPS (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) countries. Recent eurozone economic situation is compared to Japanese "lost decade" during 1990s, I seek for parallels and differences. Theoretical part shows approaches by economic schools to causes of cycle and to role of policymakers. Main challenges of fiscal and monetary policy are considered, specifically fiscal policy in time of high public indebtedness, monetary policy in liquidity trap etc. Applicative part considers causes of the economic situation at the beginning, more specifically devoted to balance sheets recession. Key part of the practical part it is analysis of applied fiscal and monetary policy, including helping efforts to financial system. Concluding remarks summarizes key understanding from the thesis, proposals are included and it is considered whether eurozone is going to follow Japanese path since 90's or not. It seems highly probable that eurozone is going to follow Japanese in terms of sluggish economic growth, parallels can be seen in weak impact of monetary policy in liquidity trap, but recommendations to fiscal policy from Japanese experience should be taken into account in very cautious way because of both specifics of eurozone and Japanese economy.

The main goal of this Diploma thesis is compiling of longterm financial plan for chosen company. This issue is dedicated theese chapters. In theoretical basis is listed theoretical part of financial planning. In analysis of issue and present financial situation is set a few chosen instruments of financial analysis, which evaluate present financial situation of company, Strategic analysis of company will focus on the current situation and the company's potential The last part is custom design solution where is processed longterm financial plan through planning of statements, which is then subjected to a check of financial analysis.

This study aimed to develop a causal chain that illustrates the path through which a variety of factors influence consumer financial vulnerability. In order to achieve the stated aim, it was necessary to firstly identify the factors that gave rise to consumers being financially vulnerable. Secondly, the nature of the causal chain between the identified factors was determined. Thirdly, the causes of consumer financial vulnerability according to key informants in the financial services industry were determined. Finally, based on the results of the first three stages, possible explanations for consumer financial vulnerability were provided. Before the construction of the causal chain could be explored, a theoretical framework regarding household financial position as well as financial attitudes and behaviours was provided. The theoretical framework was supported by a description of the linkages through which consumers function and transact in an economy by applying chain reasoning. The chain reasoning was extended by providing financial statements reflecting the results of consumers’ interactions in the macroeconomy with an extract from the national accounts of South Africa presenting the income statements, balance sheets and relevant financial ratios of consumers for the period in which the research was conducted (2008 to 2009). For this study, the explanatory sequential mixed methods design was deemed appropriate to achieve the proposed research objectives. The research process firstly consisted of a quantitative strand where the possible causes for consumer financial vulnerability were identified after which the results were validated with data obtained in the second phase by means of four focus group discussions. To determine the factors giving rise to and establish the causal chain of overall consumer financial vulnerability, regression analysis was conducted. Based on the results of the regression analysis, it became evident that the financial vulnerability chain is not a singular linear process but rather a non-linear process (with contemporaneous and singular linkages) with a variety of factors influencing financial vulnerability, but also influencing each other over time. / Management Accounting / D. Accounting Science