Utilizamos um modelo físico-matemático de relações biosfera-atmosfera para estimar a climatologia da evapotranspiração regional (ETR) entre 1980 e 2009 no estado de São Paulo, o modelo SiB2 (Simple Biosphere model). Os cálculos utilizaram dados horários da reanálise CFSR, por meio de etapas de comparação das forçantes com dados observados de superfície, e com dados de fluxos de superfície observados no campo. Os padrões da reanálise mostraram-se satisfatórios no domínio do estado de São Paulo para caracterizar a climatologia de chuva e temperatura da região, com pequenos vieses no ciclo diurno e no total anual de precipitação. Foram utilizados 6 cenários com cobertura de superfície homogênea em todo o estado (floresta de mata atlântica, cerrado, eucalipto, cana-de-açúcar, pastagem, urbanização), além de dois outros cenários (vegetação nativa e vegetação atual), que produziram médias de ETR substancialmente distintas. No cenário de eucalipto obteve-se a maior média anual, de 3,7 mm dia-1, seguido pelos valores calculados para floresta atlântica e vegetação nativa, próximos entre si, e com máximos valores do saldo de radiação e fração evaporativa. O impacto da mudança do uso da terra nos totais de ETR no estado de São Paulo pode ser discutido a partir do cenário de vegetação nativa, com ETR média de 3,3 mm dia-1, ~20% superior à ETR da vegetação atual. Obteve-se uma caracterização da climatologia da ETR real no estado de SP, com média de 930 mm ano-1, comparável com a climatologia do DAEE de 980 mm ano-1 no estado como um todo, e bem comparada com a ETR em várias sub-bacias hidrográficas. / We have used a biosphere-atmosphere relationships physical-mathematical model in order to estimate the regional evapotranspiration (ETR) climatology between 1980 and 2009, the SiB2 model (Simple Biosphere Model). The calculations used hourly data from CFSR reanalysis, through the steps of comparing forcing data with observed surface data, and with surface fluxes data observed in site. The reanalysis patterns proved satisfactory to characterize the climatology of rainfall and temperature in São Paulo state area, with small biases in the diurnal cycle and in total annual precipitation. Six homogeneous coverage surface scenarios throughout the state were used (Atlantic forest, brasilian savannah, eucalyptus, sugar cane, pasture, urbanization), and two other scenarios (native vegetation and nowadays vegetation), which produced substantially different mean ETR. The eucalyptus scenario obtained the highest annual average of 3.7 mm day-1, the greatest values were from eucalyptus, Atlantic forest and nowadays vegetation, close together, and with maximum values of net radiation and evaporative fraction. The land use change impact in the total ETR in São Paulo state can be discussed from the native vegetation scenario, with 3.3 mm day-1 average value, ~20% higher than nowadays vegetation. We obtained a characterization of real ETR climatology in São Paulo state, with an average of 930 mm year-1, comparable to DAEE climatology of 980 mm year-1 statewide, and well compared to ETR in various sub-basins.

Utilizamos um modelo físico-matemático de relações biosfera-atmosfera para estimar a climatologia da evapotranspiração regional (ETR) entre 1980 e 2009 no estado de São Paulo, o modelo SiB2 (Simple Biosphere model). Os cálculos utilizaram dados horários da reanálise CFSR, por meio de etapas de comparação das forçantes com dados observados de superfície, e com dados de fluxos de superfície observados no campo. Os padrões da reanálise mostraram-se satisfatórios no domínio do estado de São Paulo para caracterizar a climatologia de chuva e temperatura da região, com pequenos vieses no ciclo diurno e no total anual de precipitação. Foram utilizados 6 cenários com cobertura de superfície homogênea em todo o estado (floresta de mata atlântica, cerrado, eucalipto, cana-de-açúcar, pastagem, urbanização), além de dois outros cenários (vegetação nativa e vegetação atual), que produziram médias de ETR substancialmente distintas. No cenário de eucalipto obteve-se a maior média anual, de 3,7 mm dia-1, seguido pelos valores calculados para floresta atlântica e vegetação nativa, próximos entre si, e com máximos valores do saldo de radiação e fração evaporativa. O impacto da mudança do uso da terra nos totais de ETR no estado de São Paulo pode ser discutido a partir do cenário de vegetação nativa, com ETR média de 3,3 mm dia-1, ~20% superior à ETR da vegetação atual. Obteve-se uma caracterização da climatologia da ETR real no estado de SP, com média de 930 mm ano-1, comparável com a climatologia do DAEE de 980 mm ano-1 no estado como um todo, e bem comparada com a ETR em várias sub-bacias hidrográficas. / We have used a biosphere-atmosphere relationships physical-mathematical model in order to estimate the regional evapotranspiration (ETR) climatology between 1980 and 2009, the SiB2 model (Simple Biosphere Model). The calculations used hourly data from CFSR reanalysis, through the steps of comparing forcing data with observed surface data, and with surface fluxes data observed in site. The reanalysis patterns proved satisfactory to characterize the climatology of rainfall and temperature in São Paulo state area, with small biases in the diurnal cycle and in total annual precipitation. Six homogeneous coverage surface scenarios throughout the state were used (Atlantic forest, brasilian savannah, eucalyptus, sugar cane, pasture, urbanization), and two other scenarios (native vegetation and nowadays vegetation), which produced substantially different mean ETR. The eucalyptus scenario obtained the highest annual average of 3.7 mm day-1, the greatest values were from eucalyptus, Atlantic forest and nowadays vegetation, close together, and with maximum values of net radiation and evaporative fraction. The land use change impact in the total ETR in São Paulo state can be discussed from the native vegetation scenario, with 3.3 mm day-1 average value, ~20% higher than nowadays vegetation. We obtained a characterization of real ETR climatology in São Paulo state, with an average of 930 mm year-1, comparable to DAEE climatology of 980 mm year-1 statewide, and well compared to ETR in various sub-basins.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gasses coupled to the accelerated rate of global warming puts plants and ecosystems under the strain of a rapidly changing abiotic environment. Understanding the impacts of changing global climate is a strong focus of plant science and the establishment of more resilient crop variants is an important goal for breeding programs. Our understanding of plant responses and acclimation to abiotic conditions has improved substantially over the last decades but the combination of a complex abiotic environment and high biological diversity, both on molecular as well as on species level, leaves us still with a lot of uncertainties. The aim of this doctoral thesis was to establish a link between plant thermal responses and the carbon-nitrogen balance of plants. The work in this thesis focused on ecologically significant species of the boreal region: Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Betula pendula; and Betula utilis, which is one of the prominent tree species in the high altitudes of the Himalayas. The results presented demonstrate that sub-optimal temperatures combined with other abiotic factors can have additive effects that are not easily deducible from the effect of the two factors separately. Low nitrogen availability enhanced the negative effect of low temperature, while elevated CO2 enhanced plant growth under moderate increases in temperatures but under a more extreme temperature increase it exacerbated the negative effect of heat. I also show evidence that species, despite being grouped into the same functional group or inhabiting the same biome can have different thresholds to temperature and to shifts in the C/N balance of their environment and that these differences can, to some extent, be explained by their differential growth strategies. Furthermore, I demonstrate results supporting the hypothesis that the C-N fluxes between mycorrhizal fungi and tree are strongly dependent on the C and N in the environment, highlighting the significance of the tree-mycorrhiza associations in the C sequestration capacity of the boreal region. In this thesis I also present a generalised empirically based mathematical model that can describe the respiration-temperature response of plant functional types or biomes with high precision, giving a more accurate estimate of NPP when implemented in global climate models, and has the potential to incorporate the thermal acclimation of respiration, further increasing the precision of estimating carbon fluxes under future warming temperatures. My results provide novel insights into the interactive temperature-carbon-nitrogen responses of plants, taking a step towards better understanding the response of plants and forests to future climates. / Ökande atmosfäriskt CO2 och andra växthusgaser kopplade till den accelererande globala uppvärmningen utsätter växter och ekosystem för stressen av en snabbt förändrande abiotisk miljö. Att förstå påverkan av ett globalt klimat i förändring står i fokus inom växtforskning och utvecklandet av mer motståndskraftiga grödor är ett viktigt mål inom programmen för växtförädling. Vår förståelse av växters responser och acklimatisering till abiotiska förhållanden har förbättrats avsevärt under de senaste decennierna, men på grund av kombinationen av en komplex abiotisk miljö och stor biologisk mångfald, både på molekylär nivå såväl som på art-nivå, kvarstår en del frågetecken. Syftet med denna avhandling var att upprätta ett samband mellan växters responser på temperaturförändringar och kol-kvävebalansen hos växter. Arbetet i denna avhandling inriktades på ekologiskt betydande arter i den boreala regionen, Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Betula pendula; samt Betula utilis som är en av de framträdande trädarterna på höga höjder i Himalaya. Resultaten som presenteras visar att suboptimala temperaturer i kombination med andra abiotiska faktorer kan ha additiva effekter som inte enkelt kan härledas från effekten av de två faktorerna var för sig. Låg kvävetillgänglighet ökade den negativa effekten av låg temperatur, medan förhöjd CO2-halt förbättrade planttillväxt under måttliga temperaturökningar, men under en mer extrem temperaturökning förvärrades dock den negativa effekten av värme. Jag framför även bevis på att arter, trots att de grupperas i samma funktionella grupp eller finns inom samma biom, kan ha olika tröskelvärden beträffande temperatur och förskjutningar i C/N-balansen i sin miljö och att dessa skillnader, i viss utsträckning, kan förklaras av deras olika tillväxtstrategier. Vidare visar jag resultat som stöder hypotesen att C-N - flöden mellan mykorrhiza och träd är starkt beroende av C och N i miljön. Detta belyser i sin tur betydelsen av samarbetet mellan träd och mykorrhiza gällande kolbindningskapaciteten i den boreala regionen. I denna avhandling presenterar jag även en generaliserad empiriskt baserad matematisk modell som med hög precision kan beskriva respiration-temperatur svar av växtfunktionella typer eller biom, vilken ger en mer exakt uppskattning av NPP i globala klimatmodeller. Mina resultat åstadkommer nya insikter i de interaktiva temperatur-kol-kväve-responserna hos växter, och tar ett steg mot bättre förståelse för växters och skogars reaktion på framtida klimat.

In nie dagewesener Größenordnung greift der Mensch durch die Verbrennung fossiler Energieträger und der weiträumigen Umgestaltung der Landoberfläche in die globale Umwelt ein. Klimawandel und Übernutzung natürlicher Ressourcen könnten schon in diesem Jahrhundert die Anpassungsfähigkeiten vieler ökologischer und sozialer Systeme übersteigen und somit zu Konflikten und politischer Destabilisierung führen. Vor diesem Hintergrund soll diese Studie zu einem besseren Verständnis der wichtigsten globalen Triebkräfte beitragen, die die Entwicklung der terrestrischen Biosphäre in diesem Jahrhundert prägen werden: Klimawandel und menschliche Landnutzung. Auf der Basis eines Dynamischen Globalen Vegetationsmodells werden im ersten Teil der vorliegenden Arbeit zwei große klimatische Störungen des globalen Kohlenstoffkreislaufs untersucht, die innerhalb der letzten drei Jahrzehnte beobachtet wurden. Im Fordergrund steht die Frage, wie sich die Veränderungen von Temperatur-, Niederschlags- und Strahlungsbedingungen auf pflanzliche Produktivität und Zersetzungsprozesse im Boden auswirkten. Es zeigt sich, dass vermehrte Kohlenstoffspeicherung in der Landbiosphäre den überwiegenden Teil der atmosphärischen CO2 Anomalien erklärt. Der zweite Teil dieser Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der weltweit steigenden Nachfrage nach Bioenergie, die aufgrund des flächenintensiven Anbaus von Biomasse zur wichtigsten Triebkraft für zukünftige Landnutzungsänderungen werden könnte. Aus der Kombination von Vegetationsmodellierung und räumlichen Datenanalysen werden globale Bioenergiepotentiale unter Berücksichtigung verschiedener Nachhaltigkeitsanforderungen bestimmt und mögliche ökologische Auswirkungen des großräumigen Anbaus von Energiepflanzen abgeschätzt. Im Jahr 2050 könnten demnach 15-25% des weltweiten Energiebedarfs durch Bioenergie abgedeckt werden. Dafür müssten allerdings natürliche Ökosysteme in großem Umfang in Agrarland umgewandelt werden. / Human activities, primarily the combustion of fossil fuels and the global modification of the land surface, are transforming the Earth System at unprecedented scale. Climate change and the overexploitation of natural resources may soon overwhelm the adaptive capacities of many ecosystems and societies, which could lead to substantial losses in human well-being and political destabilization. In this context, it is the goal of this thesis to contribute to a better understanding of the most important global drivers that will determine the future of the land biosphere during this century: climate change and human land use. Based on a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), the first part of this thesis examines two large climatic disturbances of the terrestrial carbon cycle that were observed during the last three decades. These analyses focus on the effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and radiation on plant productivity and soil decomposition. Results indicate that increased carbon storage in the land biosphere explains the most part of the atmospheric CO2 anomaly. The second part of this thesis addresses the worldwide increasing demand for bioenergy that may become the most important driver of future land use change due to the large area requirements of biomass cultivation. A combination of vegetation modeling and spatial data analyses is used to assess global bioenergy potentials that consider various sustainability requirements for food security, biodiversity protection and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and to evaluate the environmental impacts of large-scale energy crop cultivation. The results indicate that bioenergy may provide between 15 and 25% of the global energy demand in 2050. Exploiting these potentials, however, requires the conversion of large amounts of natural vegetation into agricultural land affecting a large number of ecosystems already fragmented and degraded by land use change.