A literatura de Finanças oferece evidências de que, tanto no Brasil quantos nos E.U.A., as firmas de capital aberto estão retendo cada vez mais caixa ao longo das últimas décadas. Sobre a fonte de caixa retido, há algumas evidências do importante papel da emissão de ações para as firmas estadunidenses, porém não foram localizados trabalhos relacionados sobre o caso brasileiro. Usando uma base de dados em painel com dados contábeis e de mercado de firmas listadas na BMF&BOVESPA de 1995 a 2013 e o modelo proposto por McLean (2011), estimado através do método dos mínimos quadrados, este estudo objetiva obter evidências sobre as fontes de caixa retido pelas firmas no mercado brasileiro através de análise da amostra completa e de grupos de firmas classificadas como irrestritas e restritas financeiramente. Os resultados encontrados sugerem que a emissão de ações, o endividamento e o fluxo de caixa operacional têm correlação positiva e significante com a variação em caixa e que o fluxo de caixa operacional é a principal fonte de caixa retido das firmas brasileiras. Explorou-se o papel dos motivos precaucionários sobre a decisão de retenção e foram encontradas evidências de que o grupo de firmas restritas financeiramente retém mais a partir do fluxo de caixa operacional em tempos de crescimento nestes motivos. Por último, buscou-se verificar o papel de impactos macroeconômicos sobre a decisão de retenção, com os resultados mostrando que choques exógenos afetam de maneira diferente as firmas consideradas irrestritas e restritas financeiramente. / The Finance literature offers evidence that, in Brazil as in the U.S.A., publicly traded firms are saving more and more cash over the past decades. About the source of cash savings, there is some evidence of the important role of shares issuance for US firms, but no work was found related with the Brazilian case. Using a panel database formed by accounting and market data from listed firms in BM&FBOVESPA from 1995 to 2013 and the model proposed by McLean (2011), estimated by the least squares method, this study aims to gather evidence on the sources of cash retained by companies in the Brazilian market through analysis of the full sample and groups of firms classified as financially unconstrained and constrained. The results suggest that the shares issuance, debt and operating cashflow have positive and significant correlation with the change in cash savings and that operating cashflow is the main source of cash for Brazilian firms. The role of precautionary motives for the retention decision was explored and evidence was found that in times of growth in these motives, more is retained from operating cashflow. Finally, we sought to determine the role of macroeconomic impacts on the retention decision, with the results showing that exogenous shocks affect differently the firms considered financially unconstrained and constrained.

A literatura de Finanças oferece evidências de que, tanto no Brasil quantos nos E.U.A., as firmas de capital aberto estão retendo cada vez mais caixa ao longo das últimas décadas. Sobre a fonte de caixa retido, há algumas evidências do importante papel da emissão de ações para as firmas estadunidenses, porém não foram localizados trabalhos relacionados sobre o caso brasileiro. Usando uma base de dados em painel com dados contábeis e de mercado de firmas listadas na BMF&BOVESPA de 1995 a 2013 e o modelo proposto por McLean (2011), estimado através do método dos mínimos quadrados, este estudo objetiva obter evidências sobre as fontes de caixa retido pelas firmas no mercado brasileiro através de análise da amostra completa e de grupos de firmas classificadas como irrestritas e restritas financeiramente. Os resultados encontrados sugerem que a emissão de ações, o endividamento e o fluxo de caixa operacional têm correlação positiva e significante com a variação em caixa e que o fluxo de caixa operacional é a principal fonte de caixa retido das firmas brasileiras. Explorou-se o papel dos motivos precaucionários sobre a decisão de retenção e foram encontradas evidências de que o grupo de firmas restritas financeiramente retém mais a partir do fluxo de caixa operacional em tempos de crescimento nestes motivos. Por último, buscou-se verificar o papel de impactos macroeconômicos sobre a decisão de retenção, com os resultados mostrando que choques exógenos afetam de maneira diferente as firmas consideradas irrestritas e restritas financeiramente. / The Finance literature offers evidence that, in Brazil as in the U.S.A., publicly traded firms are saving more and more cash over the past decades. About the source of cash savings, there is some evidence of the important role of shares issuance for US firms, but no work was found related with the Brazilian case. Using a panel database formed by accounting and market data from listed firms in BM&FBOVESPA from 1995 to 2013 and the model proposed by McLean (2011), estimated by the least squares method, this study aims to gather evidence on the sources of cash retained by companies in the Brazilian market through analysis of the full sample and groups of firms classified as financially unconstrained and constrained. The results suggest that the shares issuance, debt and operating cashflow have positive and significant correlation with the change in cash savings and that operating cashflow is the main source of cash for Brazilian firms. The role of precautionary motives for the retention decision was explored and evidence was found that in times of growth in these motives, more is retained from operating cashflow. Finally, we sought to determine the role of macroeconomic impacts on the retention decision, with the results showing that exogenous shocks affect differently the firms considered financially unconstrained and constrained.

A literatura de Finanças oferece evidências de que, tanto no Brasil quantos nos E.U.A., as firmas de capital aberto estão retendo cada vez mais caixa ao longo das últimas décadas. Sobre a fonte de caixa retido, há algumas evidências do importante papel da emissão de ações para as firmas estadunidenses, porém não foram localizados trabalhos relacionados sobre o caso brasileiro. Usando uma base de dados em painel com dados contábeis e de mercado de firmas listadas na BMF&BOVESPA de 1995 a 2013 e o modelo proposto por McLean (2011), estimado através do método dos mínimos quadrados, este estudo objetiva obter evidências sobre as fontes de caixa retido pelas firmas no mercado brasileiro através de análise da amostra completa e de grupos de firmas classificadas como irrestritas e restritas financeiramente. Os resultados encontrados sugerem que a emissão de ações, o endividamento e o fluxo de caixa operacional têm correlação positiva e significante com a variação em caixa e que o fluxo de caixa operacional é a principal fonte de caixa retido das firmas brasileiras. Explorou-se o papel dos motivos precaucionários sobre a decisão de retenção e foram encontradas evidências de que o grupo de firmas restritas financeiramente retém mais a partir do fluxo de caixa operacional em tempos de crescimento nestes motivos. Por último, buscou-se verificar o papel de impactos macroeconômicos sobre a decisão de retenção, com os resultados mostrando que choques exógenos afetam de maneira diferente as firmas consideradas irrestritas e restritas financeiramente. / The Finance literature offers evidence that, in Brazil as in the U.S.A., publicly traded firms are saving more and more cash over the past decades. About the source of cash savings, there is some evidence of the important role of shares issuance for US firms, but no work was found related with the Brazilian case. Using a panel database formed by accounting and market data from listed firms in BM&FBOVESPA from 1995 to 2013 and the model proposed by McLean (2011), estimated by the least squares method, this study aims to gather evidence on the sources of cash retained by companies in the Brazilian market through analysis of the full sample and groups of firms classified as financially unconstrained and constrained. The results suggest that the shares issuance, debt and operating cashflow have positive and significant correlation with the change in cash savings and that operating cashflow is the main source of cash for Brazilian firms. The role of precautionary motives for the retention decision was explored and evidence was found that in times of growth in these motives, more is retained from operating cashflow. Finally, we sought to determine the role of macroeconomic impacts on the retention decision, with the results showing that exogenous shocks affect differently the firms considered financially unconstrained and constrained.

Focus of the thesis is financial analysis in credit analysis process. It evaluates a relevance of liquidity and ability of a company to generate cash flow to repay its debt and interests. It shows financial analysis of a company, cash flow analysis and the meaning of finantial rations from the bank point of view. It describes Erste Group Bank methodology and aplies to Telefonica O2 Business Solutions ltd.

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This thesis encompasses three essays around criminal behaviour with the first one analysing the impact of programmes aimed at poverty reduction, the second one developing a theoretical model of hysteresis in crime, and the third one empirically investigating the hysteresis hypothesis in crime rates. In the first chapter I investigate the impact of conditional cash transfers (CCT) on crime rates by analysing the Brazilian Bolsa Familia, the largest CCT programme in the world, in a panel data between 2001 and 2008. The related existing economic literature analysing general welfare programmes usually ignores the crucial endogeneity involved in the relationship between crime rates and social welfare policies through poverty, since poorer regions are focused in the distribution of resources. I use the existing temporal heterogeneity in the implementation of the programme across the states to identify the causal impact of CCT programmes on poverty and criminality. The guidelines of the Brazilian programme established that the amount of resources available for each state should be based on the poverty levels in the 2000 Census. However, due to reasons unrelated to poverty levels and crime rates, some states were able to implement the programme to a greater extent more quickly than others. States that reached the level of cash transfer expenditures proposed by the guidelines of the programme more promptly had a more significant reduction in poverty rates. Similar but less robust results are found for crime rates as robbery, theft and kidnapping, while no significant effects were found for homicide and murder, indicating a weak or non-existent relationship between conditional cash transfers and crime. I also develop, to my knowledge, the first theoretical model to explicitly account for hysteresis - a situation where positive exogenous variations in the relevant economic variables have a different effect from negative variations - in both criminal behaviour and crime rates in order to fill the gap between the theoretical predictions and the empirical evidence about the efficiency of policies in reducing crime rates. The majority of the theoretical analyses predict a sharp decrease in crime rates when there are significant improvements in the economic conditions or an increase in the probability of punishment. However, the existing empirical studies have found lower than expected effects on crime rates from variations in variables related to those factors. One important consequence of hysteresis is that the effect on an outcome variable from positive exogenous variations in the determining variables has a different magnitude from negative variations. For example, if hysteresis is present in the criminal behaviour and part of the police force in a city are dismissed in a given year, resulting in an escalation in crime, a reversal of the policy in the following year by readmitting all sacked police officers in an attempt to restore the original crime levels will result in lower crime rates, but higher than the original ones, yielding an asymmetric relationship between police and crime. Hysteresis is considered in a simple framework to model illicit behaviour. At the individual level, if criminal activity is associated with intrinsic sunk costs and learning, then the cost of leaving a criminal career is higher than entering it. At the aggregate level with homogeneous agents, this is translated into a hysteresis effect that will only occur if a specific threshold is surpassed. With heterogeneous agents, this phenomenon is reinforced generating a hysteresis effect that exists for all possible values of the variable affecting the crime decision. There are multiple equilibria at both levels. In the last chapter I empirically investigate the existence of hysteresis in crime rates. To my knowledge, this is the first empirical study to consider the existence of asymmetric effects on crime from variations in the probability of punishment and in the opportunity cost of crime. More specifically, I investigate whether positive variations on variables associated to those factors, respectively police officers and average level of income, are statistically different from negative variations. Using US crime data at the state level between 1977 and 2010, I find that police force size and real average income of unskilled workers have asymmetric effects on most types of crimes. The absolute value of the average impact of positive variations in those variables on property and violent crime rates are statistically smaller than the absolute value of the average effect of negative variations. These effects are robust under several specifications. A closer inspection of the data reveals a relatively monotonic negative relationship between wages and property crime rates, as well as negative variations in police and most crime rates. However, the relationships between positive variations in law enforcement size and most crime rates are non-linear. The magnitude of the observed asymmetries supports the hypothesis of hysteresis in crime, and suggests that no theoretical or empirical analysis would be complete without careful consideration of that important feature in the relationships between crime, police and legal income. These results corroborate the argument that policy makers should be more inclined to set pre-emptive policies rather than mitigating measures.

As agências de ratings definem os ratings como sendo uma opinião sobre o risco relativo, baseado na capacidade do emissor de pagar, totalmente, no prazo acordado (principal mais juros) comparando-os com os outros devedores do mercado. O risco de o emissor, da dívida, pagar o valor combinado, é importante tanto para os investidores, como garantia de que o pagamento do título será feito no prazo e valor contratados, quanto para as empresas emissoras, garantindo que cumprirão o compromisso e que conseguirão negociar bem esses títulos no mercado. A relação ratings e variáveis contábil-financeiras já vem sendo tratada na literatura, há algum tempo, sendo que um importante estudo realizado por Jay & Shank (1997) relacionou os ratings com o fluxo de caixa em empresas industriais americanas, através da média de cinco medidas de fluxo de caixa pertencentes a distintos grupos de ratings. Nos resultados desse estudo, nada foi encontrado, não podendo afirmar, assim, a existência de clara diferença nas médias de fluxos de caixa das empresas, nos diferentes grupos de ratings. Com isso, apareceu a oportunidade abordada por este estudo, de se replicar esse estudo de Jay & Shank (1997), nas empresas brasileiras, industriais e comerciais, classificadas pelas agências de rating, mais especificamente, no ano de 2006. Procurou-se então estudar a existência, ou não, da relação entre fluxo de caixa e ratings, ou seja, verificar se havia, realmente, diferença nas médias das nove medidas de fluxos de caixa (as cinco utilizadas por Jay & Shank, 1997, mais quatro elaboradas por este estudo) para cada grupo de ratings diferente. As médias, os desvios padrão e os índices desvio padrão pela média foram calculados, a fim de verificar, descritivamente, o comportamento, ao longo dos anos, das empresas classificadas nos diferentes grupos de ratings, comparando-os entre si. Pôde-se perceber, com a análise das médias, no decorrer dos anos, que a medida de fluxo de caixa que se expressou mais significativamente, mostrando, claramente a relação dos grupos de ratings, foi a medida de fluxo de caixa seis (lucro operacional somado ao valor da depreciação). Essa conseguiu mostrar, visivelmente, a relação de todos os grupos de classificação de ratings, do maior para o menor, em todos os anos. Além da análise descritiva, foi feita também uma análise estatística. Para tanto, foi possível aplicar o teste não paramétrico U de Mann-Whitney, já que somente os grupos High Grade e Medium Grade puderam ser comparados estatisticamente. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que nenhuma medida de fluxo de caixa, em todos os anos analisados, com nível de 5% de significância, rejeita a hipótese nula de que as médias dos dois grupos são iguais. Porém, as medidas de fluxo de caixa, um (lucro líquido somado à depreciação e ao imposto de renda diferido) e sete (lucro operacional somado à depreciação e à mudança líquida entre os ativos e passivos circulantes), são as mais eficientes em rejeitar a hipótese nula, por apresentarem significância estatística em quatro dos seis anos analisados em cada uma. / The rating agencies describe rating as an opinion about the relative risk founded on the issuer?s capacity of payment of its financial obligation plus an interest rate at a stated period, in comparison with other issuers. In such case, the risk of the issuer pay its debt is as much important to the investors, to guarantee that the right amount will be paid at the agreed time, as to the issuers itself, to assure that they will accomplish their debt obligation and will be able to trade it on a secondary market. The relation between rating and financial variables has been studied on literature such as the important analysis made by Jay & Shank (1997), which connects rating with American manufacturing companies? cash flows through the average between five cash flows from different groups of rating. Nevertheless, the results of this analyze can?t prove a clear difference among the cash flow?s averages in the different groups of rating. In this manner, showed up an opportunity, which is the purpose of this thesis, of replying Jay & Shank (1997) studies onto Brazilian manufacturing companies evaluated by rating agencies in 2006. This thesis aimed at studying the relation between the cash flows and the companies? rating, which means verify if there is an expressive difference among the averages of the nine standard measurements of cash flows (five presented by Jay & Shank (1997) and four more suggested by this thesis) for each distinct group of ratings. The averages, the pattern deviations and the index of the pattern deviations divided by the averages, were calculated in order to verify descriptively the behavior of those companies classified onto different rating groups along the time, comparing them between themselves. So analyzing the averages along the time, it was possible to notice that the cash flow which was more significant showing the relation between the rating groups clearly, was the cash flow number six (operating income plus depreciation), which presented the relation between all the rating groups over the years. Besides the descriptive analysis, a statistic analysis was made. In this manner, it was possible to put into practice the non-parametrical Mann-Whitney U test, once only the High Grade and Medium Grade groups could be statistically compared. The results indicated that none of cash flows, all over the years, at 5% level of significance, rejects the null hypothesis which states that both groups are equal. However, the cash flow number one (net income from operating plus depreciation and deferred taxes) and seven (operating income plus depreciation and change in current assets and liabilities) are the most efficient in rejecting the null hypothesis, as they presented statistical significance in four of the six years considered in each one.

Finanční řízení se zaměřením na oblast likvidity podniku. Analýza cash flow, řízení pracovního kapitálu, plán likvidity, zhodnocení řízení likvidity.

Diplomová práce průřezově popisuje developerské projekty. Definuje základní pojmy, aktuálně se krátce pozdastavuje u nového stavebního zákona, věnuje se klíčovým ekonomickým ukazatelům a cash flow, jako nástroji řízení developerského projektu. Charakterizuje developerskou divizi společnosti Skanska CZ a.s.a zabývá se vybraným realizovaným projektem. V závěru se věnuje českému a slovenskému residenčnímu trhu.

The purpose of my Master's Thesis is to determine the value of the football club Tottenham Hotspur as of 25th November 2011. The company is listed on AIM stock exchange. The main focus in theoretical part is on different financial ratios needed for the analysis of the company and on the methods of evaluation. Practical part is devoted to analysis of the historical data of the company in the period 2007-2011. Base on that I make a projection of the income statement and balance sheet for the years 2012 - 2015. For the calculation of the value of the company method of the discount free cash flow to capital is applied. As a result of my calculation the value of the company is 316 439 k. GBP, that means 1,12 GBP per share. Stock is traded approximately for the price that is half of the value calculated. The company seems to be interesting investment opportunity.