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This evaluation strives to determine what is the best police tactic in reducing gun violence. There are four approaches that are discussed are the pulling levers approach, the use of increased sentencing, hotspot identification, and the focus on reducing gun trafficking and illegal gun use. In addition to examining other evaluations, data from the FBI UCR database of specific case-study cities are included to determine to what extent each approach had. The study includes the analysis of programs such as Operation Ceasefire and Project Exile, but also includes analyses of smaller lesser known programs. Though many of the cities used a combination of these four approaches, overall, hotspot identification had great success in reducing gun violence. However with the preliminary research, it is difficult to come to any greater conclusions; more research is necessary.

<p>The objective of the thesis is to study the Sri Lankan negotiation process during 2000-2006 sponsored by the Norwegian facilitation and further to analyse the major constraints hin-dering a final solution.</p><p>The stated purpose is analysed by studying both primary and secondary materials such as official documents, research and newspaper articles. One of the major findings of the thesis is that the Norwegian facilitation has not been very effective mainly due to both domestic and international political developments in recent years. In the case of domestic politics, the Sri Lankan political arena has a tradition of political crisis which is mainly a result of the two major Sinhalese parties fighting for power. These parties have been blocking any sus-tainable solution for Tamil demands while focusing on their political power.</p><p>Furthermore, international attitudes towards the warring parties are found to have had a huge impact on the Sri Lankan peace process during the studied period. Since one of the major constraints in the negotiation process appears to be that the Government of Sri Lanka seems to have adopted the international “realpolitik” on its domestic issue in the name of the war on terror. This political strategy may further inflate the already existing na-tionalism among the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority and thus may intensify the conflict.</p>

In recent decades we have seen an increase in peace processes aimed at solving armed conflicts through peaceful means. The often fragile characteristics of such processes and the settlements that they produce underline the essential importance of improving our understanding of the dynamics at play in transitions from war to peace. This thesis aims to contribute to this overarching objective by analysing ceasefire agreements in relation to peace processes in two protracted intrastate armed conflicts: Aceh, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. In the scholarly literature, ceasefire agreements are often assumed to create momentum due to their ability to pave the way to a peaceful solution. At the same time, it has also been suggested that ceasefires can influence conflict dynamics in negative ways. Although there are many unanswered questions about ceasefire agreements in contemporary peace processes, few studies have been devoted to systematic and in-depth analysis of how ceasefire agreements can be characterized and analysed in relation to peace processes in protracted intrastate conflicts. This thesis, which is based on written documents and on interviews conducted during four research trips to the region, contributes to filling this research gap by presenting comparative case studies of Aceh and Sri Lanka. The point of departure in the study is a process-oriented, conflict dynamics approach and a view that war-to-peace transitions require changes in the conflicting parties’ attitudes, behaviours and relationships. I analyse and compare ceasefire agreements by looking at their initiation, form and content, and by examining their implementation and the unfolding of the processes. I identify six key factors in the literature that can influence the conflicting parties’ attitudes, behaviours and relationships. I then use these factors to analyse ceasefire agreements in relation to the dynamics of the broader peace processes. In this thesis I show how these key factors – including issues of recognition, trust, whether the parties’ claims are met, international involvement, contextual changes and intra-party dynamics – have mattered. I also show that context is important for understanding how and why they have mattered. The results suggest that ceasefire agreements can facilitate war-topeace transitions; however, it also illuminates challenges and the risk that such agreements can be counter-productive in the context of intrastate conflicts. The study also shows that ceasefire agreements have a historical legacy, as illustrated by their impact on subsequent interactions and agreements, and it underlines the symbolic politics of ceasefires in asymmetrical intrastate conflicts. The thesis ends with a number of propositions, among others that ceasefire agreements tend to become more comprehensive over time and that power struggles and developments within the conflicting parties are important for understanding ceasefire agreements in relation to contemporary peace processes.

The objective of the thesis is to study the Sri Lankan negotiation process during 2000-2006 sponsored by the Norwegian facilitation and further to analyse the major constraints hin-dering a final solution. The stated purpose is analysed by studying both primary and secondary materials such as official documents, research and newspaper articles. One of the major findings of the thesis is that the Norwegian facilitation has not been very effective mainly due to both domestic and international political developments in recent years. In the case of domestic politics, the Sri Lankan political arena has a tradition of political crisis which is mainly a result of the two major Sinhalese parties fighting for power. These parties have been blocking any sus-tainable solution for Tamil demands while focusing on their political power. Furthermore, international attitudes towards the warring parties are found to have had a huge impact on the Sri Lankan peace process during the studied period. Since one of the major constraints in the negotiation process appears to be that the Government of Sri Lanka seems to have adopted the international “realpolitik” on its domestic issue in the name of the war on terror. This political strategy may further inflate the already existing na-tionalism among the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority and thus may intensify the conflict.

This thesis investigates how religious holidays affect the chance for ceasefire success. It does so while engaging in the topic of explanation and prediction, with combined methods consisting of regression analysis and forecasting using random forests. The theoretical framework argues that religious holidays impose higher audience costs for violence on leaders, increasing the chance for successful agreements. This would manifest as ceasefires connected to religious holidays being more successful than those that are not. The findings from the regression analysis find no support for the hypothesis, and rather indicate that conflict intensity, ceasefire duration, as well as monitoring and verification and enforcement mechanisms better explain the apparent variation in success. The forecasting indicates a minor difference in predictive power between the model including holiday and religiosity and the one excluding them, as well as minor effects of the independent variables on ceasefire success from partial dependence plots. These findings do not oppose the rejection of the hypothesis but rather indicate the need for an increased prevalence of forecasting methods within peace and conflict research and robustness tests using other definitions of success.

The master thesis "Basque terrorist organization ETA - its activity since 2004, tactics, internal structure and future perspectives of development" deals with the analysis of development of the Basque terrorist organization ETA after 2004, when the islamic fundamentalists attacked Madrid. The first part of this thesis briefly presents basic theoretical principles of terrorism. The second part is focused on the history of ETA and its development from the very beginning till the year 2004. The third and the main part analyses the current development of ETA and the modification of its structure and strategy and also the counter- terrorist provisions, which have been taken by the Spanish state in order to paralyse the organization. All kinds of aspects which had and still have an influence on this issue had been taken into account - the changes of the internal structure of ETA and its financing, the changes in legislation or the changes in security forces strategy. A special chapter concentrates on the analysis of the strategic importance of ceasefire and the negotiations with the government.

The African continent has been beset with violent conflicts, civil wars and extended periods of instability. The continent’s future depends on the capacity to prevent, manage and resolve conflict. Reacting to conflict has proven highly expensive for the international community and has strengthened the case for a greater focus on conflict prevention. This study will examine the role, relevance and success of preventive diplomacy in responding to and preventing violent and protracted conflicts in Africa, in particular recent international efforts to seek a concrete, comprehensive and all-inclusive peace settlement to the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo had resulted in what many analysts considered to be ‘Africa’s First World War’. The aim and objective of this study will be to assess the role of preventive diplomacy, in particular efforts by the international community to resolve the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The study of the success of preventive diplomacy in responding to the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo will cover three distinct phases. The first phase will assess the historical development of the crisis in the former Zaïre dating back from 1997 to 1998 and initial steps that were taken to address the conflict. The next phase will cover the period dating from 1999-2000 following the signing of the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement, while the final phase will assess developments and efforts to secure peace by the international community from 2001 until 2004, while providing for a brief discussion on possible future developments. The research will commence by examining various theoretical contributions and insights produced on conflict prevention and the concept of preventive diplomacy. The examination of conflict prevention and preventive diplomacy will be rooted in theoretical insights produced by Michael Lund (1996) and other influential contributions on preventive diplomacy. The theoretical framework for this study will be based on Michael Lund’s model of preventive diplomacy. Although Lund’s conceptual framework provides a valuable insight into the theory of preventive diplomacy an additional theoretical consideration may be included into his assessment. Lund’s theoretical framework fails to address the impact of psychological variables and the extent to which prevailing conflict attitudes may exert a negative influence on a conflict situation. This may render the effectiveness of preventive diplomacy at the level of unstable peace obsolete if it fails to take prevailing conflict attitudes into account. This dissertation will also propose the inclusion of social-psychological approaches to augment the strategy of preventive diplomacy as developed by Lund. Very little conclusive and in-depth research has been conducted on how psychological variables, particularly conflict attitudes such as negative images, attitudes, perceptions and conflict behaviour can fuel and exacerbate a conflict situation, especially conflicts in Africa and how this may derail the success of preventive diplomacy in resolving such severe conflicts. In the numerous efforts to secure peace in the embattled Democratic Republic of the Congo scant consideration, evaluation and analysis has been produced on the way in which conflict attitudes such as misperception, fear, distrust, hostility and suspicion, became not only a major stumbling block to the peace process, but also negatively affected the outcome of the various peace agreements that were negotiated. One of the core arguments this dissertation will posit is that preventive diplomacy has not been successfully applied in resolving conflicts in Africa, and will continue to fail, unless greater emphasis is placed on structural prevention, that includes an assessment and strategy for responding to conflict attitudes, such as misperception, hostility, suspicion, fear and distrust. It could be argued that preventive diplomacy initiatives when taken alone and independently of a broader strategy of conflict prevention are likely to fail unless they are linked to measures and actions that tackle the deeper or structural causes of conflict. Greater emphasis should be placed on timely and adequate preventive action, through the vigorous promotion of preventive diplomacy, particularly structural prevention. The conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is intermittently erupting and will continue to do so, unless the structural causes of the crisis and the various conflict attitudes are effectively dealt with. The study will commence with the theoretical and conceptual framework of the study, consisting of a discussion of conflict, preventive diplomacy, and conflict prevention. The conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will be discussed as well as the underlying factors that contributed towards the brutal and excessively violent nature the conflict came to assume. The study will also examine the international response to the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as well as the immediate diplomatic efforts initiated to resolve the crisis from 1998-1999, which culminated in the signing of the Lusaka Cease-Fire Agreement on 10 July 1999. An assessment of the intervention efforts initiated by the United Nations, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and other key African states, in particular South Africa will also be undertaken. The impact of psychological variables and the importance of assessing the crucial contribution of social-psychological approaches towards understanding and resolving conflict will be briefly considered with particular reference to the protracted tensions which persisted between Rwanda and the DRC, despite the conclusion of numerous peace agreements between both countries. The final chapter will form an evaluation of the prospects for peace in the DRC beyond 2004 and will conclude the study with particular reference to the extent to which the research questions have been adequately addressed with final recommendations on the role of preventive diplomacy in addressing conflict. / Dissertation (MA (International Relations))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Political Sciences / unrestricted