In recent decades we have seen an increase in peace processes aimed at solving armed conflicts through peaceful means. The often fragile characteristics of such processes and the settlements that they produce underline the essential importance of improving our understanding of the dynamics at play in transitions from war to peace. This thesis aims to contribute to this overarching objective by analysing ceasefire agreements in relation to peace processes in two protracted intrastate armed conflicts: Aceh, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. In the scholarly literature, ceasefire agreements are often assumed to create momentum due to their ability to pave the way to a peaceful solution. At the same time, it has also been suggested that ceasefires can influence conflict dynamics in negative ways. Although there are many unanswered questions about ceasefire agreements in contemporary peace processes, few studies have been devoted to systematic and in-depth analysis of how ceasefire agreements can be characterized and analysed in relation to peace processes in protracted intrastate conflicts. This thesis, which is based on written documents and on interviews conducted during four research trips to the region, contributes to filling this research gap by presenting comparative case studies of Aceh and Sri Lanka. The point of departure in the study is a process-oriented, conflict dynamics approach and a view that war-to-peace transitions require changes in the conflicting parties’ attitudes, behaviours and relationships. I analyse and compare ceasefire agreements by looking at their initiation, form and content, and by examining their implementation and the unfolding of the processes. I identify six key factors in the literature that can influence the conflicting parties’ attitudes, behaviours and relationships. I then use these factors to analyse ceasefire agreements in relation to the dynamics of the broader peace processes. In this thesis I show how these key factors – including issues of recognition, trust, whether the parties’ claims are met, international involvement, contextual changes and intra-party dynamics – have mattered. I also show that context is important for understanding how and why they have mattered. The results suggest that ceasefire agreements can facilitate war-topeace transitions; however, it also illuminates challenges and the risk that such agreements can be counter-productive in the context of intrastate conflicts. The study also shows that ceasefire agreements have a historical legacy, as illustrated by their impact on subsequent interactions and agreements, and it underlines the symbolic politics of ceasefires in asymmetrical intrastate conflicts. The thesis ends with a number of propositions, among others that ceasefire agreements tend to become more comprehensive over time and that power struggles and developments within the conflicting parties are important for understanding ceasefire agreements in relation to contemporary peace processes.

Power-sharing has become a frequent approach to conflict resolution and postconflict reconstruction in deeply divided multi-ethnic states. Although most of the power-sharing arrangements failed within the first years after their establishment, a few contemporary cases are associated with successful power-sharing, namely with the consociational model. This work aims to determine the impact of the power-sharing arrangement on conflict dynamics and vice versa, thus the development of the model in the long term. Designs, aims and theoretical predictions of two power-sharing models, specifically consociational and centripetal models, are elaborated and subsequently compared with the after-civil war development in Lebanon and Burundi from 2005 to 2019. The periods are divided into time units bounded by amendments of the power-sharing arrangements and peace agreements. That enables to observe the development of both conflict dynamics and models. Political and civil society developments, conflicts registered in the UCDP database and political crisis are considered and put into the context of power-sharing arrangements. Based on the results, I claim that conflict dynamics from the last civil war are maintained on elites' level in the long term, while the gap between elites and masses has widened. Also, the...

The aim of this dissertation is to provide a critical understanding of a Rural Territorial Development (RTD) intervention in a context of conflict dynamics, by looking at the case of the Programme for Development and Peace in Middle Magdalena (PDPMM) - Colombia. To accomplish this task the research process discussed both theoretical and empirical inputs. Firstly, a theoretical framework was developed to understand the dynamics of the development-conflict nexus in rural territories. Secondly, supported by the examination of a case-study, systematic empirical information was collected, incorporating quantitative and qualitative evidence in order to explore the explicit conflict dynamics, namely the practical and theoretical incommensurability between opposite views of rural development taking place in the Middle Magdalena region. Such analysis was further elaborated in three steps: first, the research characterized the main visions of rural development that are being pursued in Middle Magdalena; second, a comparative analysis was carried out in order to identify incommensurabilities and contradictions among those views of development; and third, the study focused on the PDPMM in order to examine how its rural territorial development strategy influences the course of conflict dynamics. On the basis of this methodology, the study shows that rural territorial interventions should focus on building pragmatic articulations among opposite views of development to establish a common development proposal that overcomes conflict and poverty in rural territories.

Cette étude analyse l’impact du processus libéral de paix en République Démocratique du Congo sur la poursuite des violences dans les provinces du Nord et du Sud Kivu. Elle soutient que les dynamiques conflictuelles dans ces deux régions sont entretenues par l’établissement d’un programme de partage de pouvoir (power sharing), inclusif, jumelé à l’application des réformes économiques libérales. En se concentrant sur la réforme du secteur de sécurité et l’harmonisation de la politique nationale (en vue des élections post-conflictuelles de 2006), le processus de paix néglige les enjeux politiques et socio-économiques locaux. Le désengagement de l’État et la libéralisation du secteur minier accentuent le taux de corruption du gouvernement de transition et renforcent l’exploitation illégale des ressources par les groupes armés. Cette recherche soutient que l’implantation massive d’entreprises minières multinationales dans les provinces du Nord et du Sud Kivu aggrave la déformation des tissus socio-économiques locaux, accentue la dépendance des populations aux réseaux de gouvernance informelle et renforce les divers groupes armés présents sur le terrain. Par conséquent, les réformes structurelles menées dans le cadre du processus libéral de paix font perdurer les violences et occasionnent de nouvelles dynamiques conflictuelles localisées autour du contrôle des ressources locales, qu’elles soient d’ordre économique ou politique. / This study analyzes the impact of the liberal peace process on the continuation of violence in the provinces of North and South Kivu in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The study finds that conflict dynamics in the two regions are maintained by the establishment of an inclusive power sharing program that is paired with the application of liberal economic reforms. By focusing on reforms in the security sector and on the harmonization of national politics (with the post-conflict elections of 2006 in view), the peace process neglects local political and socio-economic issues. The disengagement of the state and the liberalization of the mining sector increase the corruption levels of the transition government and reinforce the illegal exploitation of resources by armed groups. This research supports that the massive establishment of multinational mining companies in the provinces of North and South Kivu contributes to the deformation of the local socio-economic fabric, increasing the dependence of local populations to informal governance networks and strengthening the diverse armed groups present in the region. Thus, the structural reforms carried within the framework of the liberal peace process perpetuate violence and cause new conflict dynamics centered around the control of local resources, whether economic or political.

Cette étude analyse l’impact du processus libéral de paix en République Démocratique du Congo sur la poursuite des violences dans les provinces du Nord et du Sud Kivu. Elle soutient que les dynamiques conflictuelles dans ces deux régions sont entretenues par l’établissement d’un programme de partage de pouvoir (power sharing), inclusif, jumelé à l’application des réformes économiques libérales. En se concentrant sur la réforme du secteur de sécurité et l’harmonisation de la politique nationale (en vue des élections post-conflictuelles de 2006), le processus de paix néglige les enjeux politiques et socio-économiques locaux. Le désengagement de l’État et la libéralisation du secteur minier accentuent le taux de corruption du gouvernement de transition et renforcent l’exploitation illégale des ressources par les groupes armés. Cette recherche soutient que l’implantation massive d’entreprises minières multinationales dans les provinces du Nord et du Sud Kivu aggrave la déformation des tissus socio-économiques locaux, accentue la dépendance des populations aux réseaux de gouvernance informelle et renforce les divers groupes armés présents sur le terrain. Par conséquent, les réformes structurelles menées dans le cadre du processus libéral de paix font perdurer les violences et occasionnent de nouvelles dynamiques conflictuelles localisées autour du contrôle des ressources locales, qu’elles soient d’ordre économique ou politique. / This study analyzes the impact of the liberal peace process on the continuation of violence in the provinces of North and South Kivu in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The study finds that conflict dynamics in the two regions are maintained by the establishment of an inclusive power sharing program that is paired with the application of liberal economic reforms. By focusing on reforms in the security sector and on the harmonization of national politics (with the post-conflict elections of 2006 in view), the peace process neglects local political and socio-economic issues. The disengagement of the state and the liberalization of the mining sector increase the corruption levels of the transition government and reinforce the illegal exploitation of resources by armed groups. This research supports that the massive establishment of multinational mining companies in the provinces of North and South Kivu contributes to the deformation of the local socio-economic fabric, increasing the dependence of local populations to informal governance networks and strengthening the diverse armed groups present in the region. Thus, the structural reforms carried within the framework of the liberal peace process perpetuate violence and cause new conflict dynamics centered around the control of local resources, whether economic or political.

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