This thesis tries to determine some of the driving force behind Swedish foreign direct in-vestments into the Baltic counties. The analysis is performed in three steps, first we analyze global FDI into transitional economies, and afterwards we look at Swedish FDI and com-pare it with German FDI. The determinants examined are index of economic freedom, R&D intensity, trade balance, wage level and proximity. The analyzed period is form 1995 to 2005. The analysis use data on the following transition countries Latvia, Lithuania, Esto-nia, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria. The results show that the determinants vary across the countries. The motives of Swedish and German investors differ. Thus, for Swedish investors R&D, economical free-dom and trade balance are the influencing factors, but for Germany only trade balance and wage level are important. The conclusion is that different determinants triggers foreign di-rect investment in transitional economies in different ways.

<p>This thesis tries to determine some of the driving force behind Swedish foreign direct in-vestments into the Baltic counties. The analysis is performed in three steps, first we analyze global FDI into transitional economies, and afterwards we look at Swedish FDI and com-pare it with German FDI. The determinants examined are index of economic freedom, R&D intensity, trade balance, wage level and proximity. The analyzed period is form 1995 to 2005. The analysis use data on the following transition countries Latvia, Lithuania, Esto-nia, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria. The results show that the determinants vary across the countries. The motives of Swedish and German investors differ. Thus, for Swedish investors R&D, economical free-dom and trade balance are the influencing factors, but for Germany only trade balance and wage level are important. The conclusion is that different determinants triggers foreign di-rect investment in transitional economies in different ways.</p>

Cette thèse étudie quelques aspects de la contagion financière en Europe, pendant la crise des subprimes et celle des dettes souveraines européennes. Ainsi, dans le premier chapitre, nous étudions la transmission du stress financier de la zone euro aux pays de l’Europe Orientale, et centrale (PECO). Notre objectif est d’examiner empiriquement le lien entre la dégradation de l’environnement financier de la zone euro -pendant ces deux crises- et les variations de la volatilité sur les marchés boursiers des PECO. Dans le deuxième chapitre, notre objectif est d’étudier la contagion entre les marchés boursiers des PECO et de la zone euro. Pour ce faire, nous optons pour la méthodologie de Flavin et al. (2008) fondée sur une approche unifiée qui permet de tester à la fois la shift et la pure contagion. Enfin, dans le troisième chapitre, nous nous intéressons aux effets des crises financières récentes sur les rendements des actions bancaires de 15 pays. Notre contribution à la littérature est double. Tout d’abord, nous utilisons un modèle multifactoriel des rendements des actions bancaires augmenté par un facteur de risque souverain. En outre, nous optons pour un modèle de régression avec transition douce (STR) qui permet une définition endogène des périodes de crises et capte les changements de paramètres associés à la shift contagion. / This thesis examines some aspects of the financial contagion in Europe during the subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt. The aim of the first chapter is to study the transmission of financial stress in the Eurozone to Central and Eastern European countries (CEE). Our goal is to empirically examine the relationship between the degradation of the financial environment of the Eurozone -during these two crises- and the variations of volatility on the CEE’s stock markets. In the second chapter, we investigate contagion between pairs of Eurozone and CEE’s stock market. For this purpose, we opt for the methodology of Flavin et al. (2008) based on a unified approach that allows for testing both shift and bi-directional pure contagion. In the third chapter, we analyze the influence of the recent European sovereign debt crisis on banks’ equity returns for 15 countries. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, we use an explicit multifactor model of equity returns extended with a sovereign risk factor. Second, we adopt a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) framework that allows for an endogenous definition of crisis periods and captures the changes in parameters associated with shift contagion.

The paper deals with the issue of contemporary flat-tax reforms in Eastern Europe and aims to account for the different approaches that various European countries adopted towards the idea of a flat-tax. Empirically, the work is based on detailed studies of Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Germany. The analysis considers three factors being decisive for the flat-tax feasibility: 1./ party system institutionalization, 2./ coalition/opposition cohesiveness, 3./ labor union institutionalization. First, the study is concerned with each of the factor's influence on the political decision-making process in the three country cases. Secondly, on country paired comparisons the findings for each of the countries are mutually contrasted. Although all identified factors seem to be at play with regard to flat-tax feasibility, I argue that it is either the strength or the weakness of labor unions' institutionalization and welfare identity that underlie the political decision-making in the East and the West and as a result determine the flat-tax (un-)feasibility. The absence of welfare identity in the East allows for higher coalition cohesion in favor and weaker opposition against the flattax adoption in contrast to the West. / Series: Discussion Papers SFB International Tax Coordination

The Master Thesis deals with offshoring and its logistic requirements. The first part of thesis characterizes terms as outsourcing, offshoring and offshore outsourcing. The main reasons for foreign production are seeking of resources (typically low cost labour) and expansion into new markets. Benefits and risks of offshoring are analyzed in the thesis, as well as criteria for selection of suitable host destination. Often overlooked impacts of globalization on integrated supply chain are also considered in this thesis. Central and Eastern Europe is one of important offshoring regions. CEE offers relatively cheap and qualified labour. However, its main benefit is its small geographical distance from Western Europe. The costs of servicing markets at Western Europe from CEE are much lower compared to servicing these markets from Asia.

The primary goal of this thesis is to address the validity of a popular premise that China has deployed a “divide et impera” strategy in relations with the European Union through the 16+1 Initiative. The contemporary literature predominantly focuses on the analysis of economic aspects. The thesis, however, deploys unique techniques to study non-economic aspects. As such the analysis was conducted via both comparison of state positions derived from the United Nation roll-call data and the speech similarities derived from the United Nations statements. The author concluded that the 16+1 initiative has led to only a very slight increase in similarity of the state’s preferences between the CEE countries and China.

À la suite de la Seconde Guerre mondiale, l’Europe est affaiblie et divisée. Les horreurs de la guerre amènent les Européens à repenser leur cohabitation et l’idée d’une Europe, unie par des liens économiques et politiques forts, germe dans l’esprit des Européens. Ils créent alors la CECA en 1951 puis, sept ans plus tard, la Communauté économique européenne. Puisque cette dernière aura du succès, certains pays européens, dont la Grande-Bretagne, demandent à la rejoindre. La France d’alors, sous la présidence de Charles de Gaulle, s’oppose à cette demande d’adhésion à deux reprises, en 1963 et en 1967. Il faut attendre l’arrivée de Georges Pompidou à l’Élysée pour que Londres intègre la CEE. L’élargissement de la Communauté est un évènement important; il a un impact direct sur le rôle de la France en Europe et dans le monde. Il a également une incidence certaine sur le rôle de l’Europe dans le monde bipolaire de l’époque, ainsi que sur ses relations avec l’allié américain. La presse des pays concernés suivra ces évènements avec intérêt, telle la presse quotidienne française, qui commente abondamment les décisions prises par son gouvernement. Le présent mémoire, qui étudie certains journaux d’importance à la lumière des ouvrages d’érudition et des sources primaires, analyse thématiquement la position de journaux français de diverses tendances politiques sur la politique française au cours des trois demandes. / Following the Second World War, Europe was divided and weak. The horrors of war forced Europeans to rethink how to co-exist and the idea of a united Europe with strong economical and political ties grew among them. The ECSC was created in 1951 and then, seven years later, the European Economic Community. When the latter succeeded, some European countries, like Great Britain, asked to join. France, and its president Charles de Gaulle, objected to the British application on two occasions, in 1963 and in 1967. London had to wait for the arrival of a new French president, Georges Pompidou, to be officially accepted in the EEC. The enlargement of the Community was an important event because it had an impact on France’s role in Europe and in the world. It also influenced Europe’s role in the then bipolar world and on its relations with the United States. The national press of the countries involved covered the events surrounding the enlargement with interest. The French daily press commented on them at length. Using both historical studies and primary sources, this thesis thematically analyzes the views of French newspaper of different political horizons on French policy surrounding the three British applications.

This thesis provides evidence of how macroeconomic surprises, constructed as deviations from market expectations, impact daily spread changes of Czech, Polish and Hungarian (CEEC-3) government bonds and sovereign credit default swaps. Firstly, we carried out series of event studies that inspect the spreads' reactions to the announcements. Subsequently, we employed the general-to-specific modeling approach and arrived at thirty GARCH-type models that consider surprises' impact on both conditional mean and variance. We have found significant impacts on the mean, yet in terms of magnitude, the impact of macroeconomic surprises has not been superior to that of broad financial factors. The impact on spreads' volatility appears more consequential though it lacks a clear pattern: Both good and bad news have been found to affect the volatility in either direction. Our findings suggest that with respect to macroeconomic news, daily changes of the bond spreads are driven rather by inflation expectations than by credit risk considerations. Foreign news proxied by the German surprises seems to affect the CEEC-3 bond spreads mainly through the risk-free proxy - the German Bund yield. Contrary to studies using low-frequency macroeconomic data, we have found no evidence for the "wake-up call" hypothesis.

This thesis examines the output-variability relationship and causal relationships among the inflation, the output growth and their uncertainties for the Central and Eastern European region during the period of time that covers the economic crisis of 2008. We apply the bivariate GARCH(1,1) model with the constant conditional correlation covariance matrix to obtain conditional variances that proxy the two uncertainties and use Granger causality test to determine the causal effects among four variables. We come up with a number of interesting results. First, we did not find statistical evidence neither for the inflation-output variability relationship nor for the Phillips curve. Second, we uncovered support for the positive causal effect of the inflation on its uncertainty and negative causal effect for the reverse direction. Additionally, we also found some support for the indirect negative causal effect of the inflation on the output growth. These results support the policy of low and stable inflation in the countries. Finally, we showed that crisis has a significant impact on the results, changing the behaviour of conditional variances and causal effects among the variables. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

Les années 70 voient l’émergence d’un monde multipolaire qui exige de nouvelles échelles de négociations. Quelle place le bilatéral peut-il jouer dans la réorganisation des relations internationales ? La question interpelle tout particulièrement deux puissances européennes « moyennes » aux ambitions mondiales : la France et la Grande-Bretagne. Les chocs monétaire, économique et énergétique dans un contexte de mondialisation accélérée, rendent indispensable la coordination entre les Etats et justifient des solutions régionales : Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, qui voit dans l’intégration européenne le moyen de préserver le poids de l’Europe et de la France dans le monde, doit composer avec les Britanniques qui adhèrent à la CEE en 1973. Aux défis économiques s’ajoutent des déséquilibres politiques : inconnues de la détente, divergences transatlantiques, recul du leadership américain, apparition de nouveaux acteurs sur l’échiquier mondial. Pour sauvegarder l’équilibre européen, le consensus est plus que jamais nécessaire. L’arrivée au pouvoir au milieu des années 70 en France, en Grande-Bretagne, en Allemagne et aux États-Unis, d’une nouvelle génération de dirigeants, favorise la restructuration des modes de concertation. La création par Valéry Giscard d’Estaing du Conseil européen et du G7 cristallise cette évolution et offre de nouvelles perspectives aux relations bilatérales. Celles-ci s’inscrivent de plus en plus dans le système des relations internationales par un jeu d’échelles qui permet de coordonner les stratégies. Le sommet franco-britannique créé en 1976 prend toute sa dimension en tant que relais entre gouvernance européenne et gouvernance mondiale. / The 70’s see the emergence of a multipolar world that requires new scales of negotiations. What role can bilateralism play in the reorganization of global relations? The question especially calls out two medium-sized European powers with worldwide ambitions: France and Great Britain.The monetary, economical, and energy crises in a context of accelerated globalization make the coordination between states vital and justify regional solutions. Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, who sees in the European integration the mean to preserve the weight of Europe and France in the world, has to compose with the British who join the EEC in 1973. To the economic challenges are added political imbalances: the unknowns of Détente, transatlantic divergences, the decline of the American leadership, and the emergence of new key players on the world stage. In order to protect the European balance, the consensus is more necessary than ever. The coming to power, in the mid 70’s, of a new generation of political leaders in France, Great Britain, Germany, and the US promotes the restructuring of dialogue. The creation of the European Council and the G7 by Valéry Giscard d’Estaing crystallizes this evolution and offers new perspectives to bilateral relations. These fit more and more into the international relation system by an interplay of scales that allows the coordination of the strategies. The Franco-British summit introduced in 1976 comes into full view as a relay between the European governance and the worldwide governance.