Invasive species are a growing issue that will compound under climate change. Rising temperatures, fluctuating precipitation and new transportation pathways will create new opportunities for invasive establishment. A direct and impactful consequence of climate change is the removal of climatic barriers to invasive survival. Species distribution modeling (SDM) for invasives must include an evaluation of future establishment potential so that managers can prioritize regions forecasted as high risk under climate change. Climatic SDMs effectively support pan-invasion risk assessments by forecasting potential invaded areas globally where climatic barriers have shifted the potential for establishment. Rarely is regional-scale climate variation considered in invasive SDMs, despite its relevance for pests that establish outside their native regional climate. Here, I apply a climatic pest risk framework to the Spotted Lanternfly grape pest (Lycorma delicatula, SLF). I assess how climate change shifts the establishment potential of SLF across important viticultural regions worldwide. I contrast an ensemble of three regional-scale SDMs to a global-scale SDM, which provided multiple predictions on how future regional climate variation might shift national SLF risk levels, impacting the global wine market. I found that the global suitable area for SLF will increase under climate change, with range expansion outpacing contractions by about 1.1 million km2. Expansions will primarily occur at present northern range edges in Europe, North America, and East Asia, and contractions will occur across the southern hemisphere. Next, 307 global viticultural regions (29% of 1,063 total sampled) will decrease in risk for SLF establishment and only 532 (50% of 1,063) will remain at any risk under climate change. Loss in SLF establishment risk under climate change followed a latitudinal gradient in the northern hemisphere. Meanwhile, only 85 known SLF populations (11% of 769 rarefied sample) will destabilize under climate change. Populations within the US and South Korean invaded ranges will remain stable with respect to climate. Our regional-scale ensemble emphasized the importance of mean winter temperature as a constraint on SLF establishment, with activity dropping sharply at -3°C. This method for regional-scale ensemble modeling should be utilized in similar invasive or climate change SDM applications to make more refined SDM predictions and to reduce uncertainty. Viticulturalists can and should use our provided tools and model framework to understand the risk of SLF establishment at their locality as climate change removes barriers to this pest’s establishment globally. / Biology

A partir da Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima, o Brasil tem publicado inúmeras leis sobre mudança do clima, mas tem-se verificado dificuldades em sua aplicação. Apesar disso, pouco se tem escrito com o objetivo de identificar os aspectos mais críticos que permitam auxiliar a revisão e aprimoramento do marco jurídico-climático no país. O objetivo principal deste estudo foi realizar uma análise crítica da Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima e da Política sobre Mudança do Clima do Estado de São Paulo, a fim de avaliar se o processo de incorporação da dimensão climática no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro, e em especial no Estado de São Paulo, tem sido adequado e, em caso negativo, porque não. Foram identificadas e estudadas mais de 100 leis no Brasil sobre mudança do clima, mas a análise crítica na dissertação limitou-se à lei nacional e paulista sobre mudança do clima. Também foi estudada a bibliografia principal sobre o assunto e foi realizado estudo de casos já levados ao Poder Judiciário. Os resultados da análise permitem verificar que as principais falhas dos marcos legais em nível nacional e estadual apontam para a ausência de clareza na alocação de responsabilidades dos setores envolvidos. Além disso, a legislação paulista adotou uma meta de redução de emissões que tem se mostrado inatingível, o que gera insegurança jurídica e prejudica a eficácia das normas. Finalmente, recomendações são apresentadas para o aprimoramento dos marcos legais. / Since the Brazilian National Climate Change Policy was enacted, Brazil has been issuing many laws on climate change, but implementation of such laws has not been adequate. Nevertheless, there are very few legal assessments on the Brazilian climate change regime that could assist to improve its effectiveness. The main purpose of this masters dissertation is to undertake a critical assessment of Brazilian National Climate Change Policy and of State of São Paulo Climate Change Policy, in order to comprehend whether or not the process of incorporating the climate change dimension on the Brazilian legal system has been adequate, and if not why. More than one hundred laws on climate change in Brazil were researched, but the detailed assessment was limited to the National and State of São Paulo legislation. Court precedents and main doctrine have also been analyzed. The results of the assessment demonstrate that since the National Climate Change Policy, many other climate change laws have been enacted, and most of them present serious uncertainties, which impair the execution of these laws. The main uncertainties of such laws arise from the fact the they do not clearly allocate responsibility and obligations to all stakeholders involved. Besides, the state law adopted a reduction target that is not achievable, which cause legal uncertainty and impairs the execution of these laws. In the end, the dissertation presents recommendations for the improvement of Brazilian climate change legal regime.

A partir da Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima, o Brasil tem publicado inúmeras leis sobre mudança do clima, mas tem-se verificado dificuldades em sua aplicação. Apesar disso, pouco se tem escrito com o objetivo de identificar os aspectos mais críticos que permitam auxiliar a revisão e aprimoramento do marco jurídico-climático no país. O objetivo principal deste estudo foi realizar uma análise crítica da Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima e da Política sobre Mudança do Clima do Estado de São Paulo, a fim de avaliar se o processo de incorporação da dimensão climática no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro, e em especial no Estado de São Paulo, tem sido adequado e, em caso negativo, porque não. Foram identificadas e estudadas mais de 100 leis no Brasil sobre mudança do clima, mas a análise crítica na dissertação limitou-se à lei nacional e paulista sobre mudança do clima. Também foi estudada a bibliografia principal sobre o assunto e foi realizado estudo de casos já levados ao Poder Judiciário. Os resultados da análise permitem verificar que as principais falhas dos marcos legais em nível nacional e estadual apontam para a ausência de clareza na alocação de responsabilidades dos setores envolvidos. Além disso, a legislação paulista adotou uma meta de redução de emissões que tem se mostrado inatingível, o que gera insegurança jurídica e prejudica a eficácia das normas. Finalmente, recomendações são apresentadas para o aprimoramento dos marcos legais. / Since the Brazilian National Climate Change Policy was enacted, Brazil has been issuing many laws on climate change, but implementation of such laws has not been adequate. Nevertheless, there are very few legal assessments on the Brazilian climate change regime that could assist to improve its effectiveness. The main purpose of this masters dissertation is to undertake a critical assessment of Brazilian National Climate Change Policy and of State of São Paulo Climate Change Policy, in order to comprehend whether or not the process of incorporating the climate change dimension on the Brazilian legal system has been adequate, and if not why. More than one hundred laws on climate change in Brazil were researched, but the detailed assessment was limited to the National and State of São Paulo legislation. Court precedents and main doctrine have also been analyzed. The results of the assessment demonstrate that since the National Climate Change Policy, many other climate change laws have been enacted, and most of them present serious uncertainties, which impair the execution of these laws. The main uncertainties of such laws arise from the fact the they do not clearly allocate responsibility and obligations to all stakeholders involved. Besides, the state law adopted a reduction target that is not achievable, which cause legal uncertainty and impairs the execution of these laws. In the end, the dissertation presents recommendations for the improvement of Brazilian climate change legal regime.

This dissertation analyzes the impact of climate, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on crop yields and grain transportation. The analysis of crop yields endeavors to advance the literature by statistically estimating the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on observed crop yields. This is done using an econometric model estimated over pooled historical data for 1950-2009 and data from the free air CO2 enrichment experiments. The main findings are: 1) yields of soybeans, cotton, and wheat directly respond to the elevated CO2, while yields of corn and sorghum do not; 2) the effect of crop technological progress on mean yields is non-linear; 3) ignoring atmospheric CO2 in an econometric model of crop yield likely leads to overestimates of the pure effects of climate change and technological progress on crop yields; and 4) average climate conditions and climate variability contribute in a statistically significant way to average crop yields and their variability. To examine climate change impacts on grain transportation flows, this study employs two modeling systems, a U.S. agricultural sector model and an international grain transportation model, with linked inputs/outputs. The main findings are that under climate change: 1) the excess supply of corn and soybeans generally increases in Northern U.S. regions, while it declines in Central and Southern regions; 2) the Corn Belt, the largest producer of corn in the U.S., is anticipated to ship less corn; 3) the importance of lower Mississippi River ports, the largest current destination for U.S. grain exports, diminishes under the climate change cases, whereas the role of Pacific Northwest ports, Great Lakes ports, and Atlantic ports is projected to increase; 4) the demand for grain shipment via rail and truck rises, while demand for barge transport drops.

The Mexican Caribbean tourism sector is highly exposed to hurricane activity, yet coastal tourism is also a major driver influencing regional biophysical and social vulnerability to climate risks. Drawing on a political ecology approach and a vulnerability assessment, this study asks how experiences with extreme hurricane events in the Mexican Caribbean shape climate change adaptation in the regional tourism sector. This study uses multiple methods, scales and field sites to (a) examine how biophysical vulnerability to extreme hurricanes affects the tourism sector, (b) explain the changing conditions of social vulnerability linked to hurricane damage in the tourism sector and (c) assess the present and future opportunities and obstacles for adaptation planning. The main findings show that the region is experiencing a phase of unprecedented high intensity hurricanes. It is uncertain, however, whether changes in hurricane activity exceed natural multi-decadal variability. Tourism is one major driver of land use changes which have resulted in some of the world’s fastest increase in coastal urban sprawl. Most tourism infrastructure is located in areas with the greatest exposure to hurricanes. Hurricane Wilma which hit the region in 2005 is the most expensive natural disaster in the history of the Mexican insurance industry. Hotels have showed a high ability to recover operations after hurricanes. There is a high penetration of insurance ownership in hotels and there is substantial mobilization of public and private financial and human resources during hurricane disasters. Hotel responses to hurricanes, however, tend to be reactive and autonomous. One important consequence of hurricanes is that hoteliers in the interest to reduce operational costs, fire those workers with the weakest labour rights. Thus, hotel workers suffer from ‘double exposure’, a situation where hotel workers are confronted with the consequences of climate change while simultaneously suffering the consequences of globalization and neoliberal policies which have reduced the power of unions and weakened access to social security. The Mexican government has created a national climate change strategy and its operational programme which has led to the consolidation of an adaptation organizational structures at the national and state levels. I conclude, however, that adaptation planning may not result in the necessary actions on the ground since local actors are not well integrated yet into such efforts. This study shows the importance of regional adaptation research that takes into account perspectives from both the physical and social sciences. This study highlights the importance of interactions between local actors, the larger socioeconomic and political economy context to inform adaptation planning and policy.

abstract: Energy consumption in buildings, accounting for 41% of 2010 primary energy consumption in the United States (US), is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to the direct relationship between space heating/cooling and temperature. Past studies have assessed the impact of climate change on long-term mean and/or peak energy demands. However, these studies usually neglected spatial variations in the “balance point” temperature, population distribution effects, air-conditioner (AC) saturation, and the extremes at smaller spatiotemporal scales, making the implications of local-scale vulnerability incomplete. Here I develop empirical relationships between building energy consumption and temperature to explore the impact of climate change on long-term mean and extremes of energy demand, and test the sensitivity of these impacts to various factors. I find increases in summertime electricity demand exceeding 50% and decreases in wintertime non-electric energy demand of more than 40% in some states by the end of the century. The occurrence of the most extreme (appearing once-per-56-years) electricity demand increases more than 2600 fold, while the occurrence of the once per year extreme events increases more than 70 fold by the end of this century. If the changes in population and AC saturation are also accounted for, the impact of climate change on building energy demand will be exacerbated. Using the individual building energy simulation approach, I also estimate the impact of climate change to different building types at over 900 US locations. Large increases in building energy consumption are found in the summer, especially during the daytime (e.g., >100% increase for warehouses, 5-6 pm). Large variation of impact is also found within climate zones, suggesting a potential bias when estimating climate-zone scale changes with a small number of representative locations. As a result of climate change, the building energy expenditures increase in some states (as much as $3 billion/year) while in others, costs decline (as much as $1.4 billion/year). Integrated across the contiguous US, these variations result in a net savings of roughly $4.7 billion/year. However, this must be weighed against the cost (exceeding $19 billion) of adding electricity generation capacity in order to maintain the electricity grid’s reliability in summer. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Environmental Social Science 2016

In this thesis, the framework within which long-term goals are set and subsequently achieved or approached is analyzed. Sustainable development and climate change are areas in which goals have tobe set despite uncertainties. The analysis is divided into the normative motivations for setting such goals, what forms of goals could be set given the empirical and normative uncertainties, and how tomanage doubts regarding achievability or values after a goal has been set. Paper I discusses a set of questions that moral theories intended to guide goal-setting should respond to. It is often claimed that existent normative theories provide only modest guidance regarding climate change, and consequently have to be revised or supplemented. Two such suggested revisions or supplements are analyzed in order to determine whether they provide such guidance. Paper II applies the deep ecological framework to survey the extent to which it can be utilized to discuss issues concerning the management of climate change. It is suggested that the deep ecological framework can provide guidance by establishing a normative framework and an analysis of how the overarching values and principles can be specified to be relevant for actions. Paper III is focused on normative political theory, and explicates the two dimensions of empirical and normative uncertainty. By applying recent discussions in normative political theory on ideal/non-ideal theory, political realism, and the relation between normative demands and empirical constraints,strategies for managing the proposed goals are suggested. Paper IV suggests a form of goal that incorporates uncertainties. Cautious utopias allow greater uncertainty than realistic goals (goals that are known to be achievable or approachable, and desirable),but not to the same extent as utopian goals (goals wherein it is highly uncertain whether the goal can actually be achieved). Such goals have a performance-enhancing function. A definition and quality criteria for such goals are proposed. Paper V considers whether a goal that is becoming all the more unlikely to be achievable should be reconsidered. The paper focuses on the two degrees Celsius target, and asks whether it could still be a sensible goal to aspire to. By applying the principle that ‘ought’ implies ‘can’, the role of such obligations is investigated. Paper VI surveys how to treat circumstances in which an already set goal should be reconsidered and possibly revised, and what would evoke doubt in the belief upon which those goals have been set.Two situations are analyzed: (i) a problematic or surprising event occurs, upsetting confidence in one’s relevant beliefs, or (ii) respectable but dissenting views are voiced concerning one’s means and/or values. It is suggested that the validity of doubt has to be considered, in addition to the level in a goal-means hierarchy towards which doubt is raised. / <p>QC 20151204</p>

Climate change is expected to have a large impact on northern ecosystems. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation and snow cover patterns will have a great impact on subarctic tundra. Bryophytes form an important component of tundra ecosystems because of their high abundance and their importance in many ecological processes. The effect of elevation and snow cover on freezing damage in shoots of three subarctic bryophytes: Ptilidium ciliare, Hylocomium splendens and Sphagnum fuscum, was studied in a snow manipulation field experiment at different elevations in Abisko, Sweden, during early spring. The treatments included snow addition, snow removal and control. In addition, bryophyte healthiness at the plot scale was determined by image analysis using colour selection, and soil temperature and moisture data were collected. Freezing damage differed significantly among bryophyte species with P. ciliare having the lowest freezing damage. There was a decrease in freezing damage over time due to the increase in temperature as spring progressed. Counter expectation, freezing damage was higher at low elevation although the mean daily minimum temperature was lower at higher elevation, which might be due to adaptation effects. Snow treatment had only a minor effect on freezing damage, but it did have an effect on proportion of undamaged tissue at the plot scale which increased with increasing snow cover at high elevation, but decreased with increasing snow cover at low elevation. Soil moisture content was also affected by snow treatment. The number of freeze-thaw cycles was less for S. fuscum and H. splendens compared to bare soil plots, which indicates insulating capacities of these bryophytes. Freezing damage could not be explained by the measured climate variables alone; therefore, it is likely the result of a complex set of factors, possibly including solar radiation and disturbance by herbivores.

Ecosystems transition quickly in the Anthropocene, whereas biodiversity adapts more slowly. Here we simulated a shifting woodland ecosystem on the Colorado Plateau of western North America by using as its proxy over space and time the fundamental niche of the Arizona black rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus). We found an expansive (= end-of-Pleistocene) range that contracted sharply (= present), but is blocked topographically by Grand Canyon/Colorado River as it shifts predictably northwestward under moderate climate change (= 2080). Vulnerability to contemporary wildfire was quantified from available records, with forested area reduced more than 27% over 13 years. Both 'ecosystem metrics' underscore how climate and wildfire are rapidly converting the Plateau ecosystem into novel habitat. To gauge potential effects on C. cerberus, we derived a series of relevant 'conservation metrics' (i.e. genetic variability, dispersal capacity, effective population size) by sequencing 118 individuals across 846 bp of mitochondrial (mt)DNA-ATPase8/6. We identified five significantly different clades (net sequence divergence = 2.2%) isolated by drainage/topography, with low dispersal (F-ST = 0.82) and small sizes (2N(ef) = 5.2). Our compiled metrics (i.e. small-populations, topographic-isolation, low-dispersal versus conserved-niche, vulnerable-ecosystem, dispersal barriers) underscore the susceptibility of this woodland specialist to a climate and wildfire tandem. We offer adaptive management scenarios that may counterbalance these metrics and avoid the extirpation of this and other highly specialized, relictual woodland clades.

This thesis seeks to investigate the changes in the characteristics of 20th and 21st century meteorological droughts in the UK to address the following lines of inquiry: 1) How credible are rainfall-based indices in representing hydrological droughts, 2) How coherent are droughts?, 3) Can alternative method of analysis provide new (or additional) information on the uncertainties in climate models?, and 4) Will future drought characteristics change?. Key results, respectively, are summarized as follows: • The drought severity index (DSI), can be considered a good proxy for assessing hydrological droughts as can be seen in its ability to capture the major hydrological events. The main caveat of the DSI is that there is often an underestimation of drought intensity and duration, • Drought covariance is higher for the (i) wet season, (ii) moderate and (iii) shorter duration droughts, • Evaluating climate models using drought statistics produces contrasting results compared with that using the model's precipitation fields. Drought statistics show biases which are largely negative, more intense, and have a greater spatial coverage. • The projected ensemble-mean change is generally greater (and more widespread) for (i) moderate droughts and (ii) wet season compared with extreme droughts and the dry season, respectively with increases in drought intensity, drought covariance index, frequency of drought months and frequency of drought events for a given duration shown for England.