Climate change presents a clear threat to the future of global food security. Changes in the patterns of temperature and precipitation have the potential to greatly decrease agri- cultural production. Developing successful adaptation strategies is dependent on under- standing both the potential changes in yield of a given crop, as well as the likelihood those changes occurring. This requires an understanding of the uncertainty in the geographic patterns of future climate change, as well as the response of a crop to those changes. In this dissertation I explore a framework for generating rapid estimates of the risk of climate change to agricultural yields. Using data from multiple climate models I use a regression based pattern scaling ap- proach in conjunction with a multi-resolution Gaussian spatial process model to emulate the output of a multi-model ensemble of global climate models. The approach is flexible across climate scenarios, allowing it to be easily used in conjunction with other impact models. Using this model I am able to rapidly emulate thousands of runs of a climate model on a laptop computer. The resulting synthetic distributions retain the spatial variability of the initial emulated models and provide a tool for generating probabilistic forecasts of regional climate change. Next I use a generalized additive model approach to estimate the stable manifold yield response surface of a set of irrigated and rained crops in China. This approach highlights the nonlinear relationship between changes in temperature and precipitation and yield. Results suggest that irrigation alone cannot prevent losses from climate change. Predictions of future temperature and precipitation show a trend towards temperatures above the critical threshold for many crops, indicating the potential for large losses. In the final chapter I combine the previously described methods to assess the impact of climate change on the spatial patterns of crop yield change in China. Result indicate overall losses to crop yield in the majority of cropped regions for both irrigated and non irrigated crops. These results represent a new methodology for rapidly assessing the risk of climate change to crop yield, and provide a new tool for prioritizing adaptation measures.

A expectativa de alterações climáticas é especialmente importante para o setor agropecuário, uma vez que se trata de atividade que possui dependência dos ciclos naturais. O objetivo desta tese é avaliar impactos econômicos de cenários de mudança climática para a agricultura brasileira. Efeitos sobre áreas aptas de oito culturas (feijão, milho, soja, algodão, arroz, cana de açúcar, mandioca e café) são avaliados através de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, o The Enormous Regional Model for Brazil - TERM-BR, e cenários disponibilizados pela Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária - EMBRAPA, baseados no Painel Intergovernamental para a Mudança Climática - IPCC. Dois cenários são simulados com horizontes distintos, um para 2020 desconsiderando mudanças sociais e econômicas (2020/A2) e outro para 2070 com adaptações sociais e econômicas, nas projeções do IPCC (2070/B2). Para 2020/A2 os efeitos negativos concentram-se nas regiões Nordeste, conseqüência do clima semi-árido e perfil produtivo da região, além dos estados de Mato Grosso e Mato Grosso do Sul, resultado de impactos sobre a área apta para o produto soja. Em oposição, neste cenário, a região Sudeste beneficia-se, pois o produto cana de açúcar observa aumentos de rendimento sob aquecimento climático brando. O resultado líquido aponta para uma pequena redução da atividade econômica (PIB), elevação de preços de gêneros alimentícios e deslocamentos regionais da mão de obra, do Nordeste e Centro Oeste para as demais regiões. Para o segundo cenário, 2070/B2, novamente o Nordeste e o Centro Oeste são as regiões mais afetadas. Porém, os ganhos para a atividade econômica da região Sudeste são menores, uma vez que o efeito benéfico sobre a cana de açúcar desaparece em cenários mais severos de mudança climática. Como conseqüência, há um declínio nacional da atividade econômica superior ao cenário anterior. Naquilo que diz respeito ao mercado de trabalho permanecem as tendências de migração da mão de obra das regiões Nordeste e Centro Oeste para as demais regiões. Contudo, esta migração concentrase, proporcionalmente, nos estratos mais qualificados do mercado de trabalho. A mudança climática, na ausência de medidas de adaptação e mitigação mais intensas pode representar um risco para regiões historicamente subdesenvolvidas ou de desenvolvimento recente. Em especial, demonstra-se que os impactos econômicos no território brasileiro são heterogêneos entre as grandes regiões e os estados que o compõem. / The outlook of climate change is especially important for the farming sector, an economic activity where connection with natural cycles is strong. The objective of this thesis is to calculate economic impacts in scenarios of climatic change for Brazilian agriculture. Effect on appropriate areas of eight harvests (beans, maize, soy, cotton, rice, sugar cane, cassava and coffee) are evaluated through a model of computable general balance, the TERM-BR, and scenes available from EMBRAPA, based on the IPCC. Two scenarios are simulated with divergent perspectives, one for 2020 disrespecting social and economic changes (2020/A2) and another one for 2070 with social and economic adaptations, in the projections of the IPCC (2070/B2). For 2020/A2 the negative effect are concentrated in the regions Northeast, consequence of the several dry climate and production profile of the region, beyond the states of Mato Grosso and South´s Mato Grosso, outcome of impacts on the appropriate region for the soy. In antagonism, in this simulation, the Southeastern region is benefited; therefore the product sugar cane registers increases of income under soft climatic change scenario. The net result points with respect to a small reduction of the economic activity (GDP), rise of prices of foodstuffs and regional migration of the labor force, from Northeast and Center West for the other regions. For as the scenario, 2070/B2, the Northeast and the Center West are the affected regions also. However, the positive results for the economic activity in the Southeastern region are lesser, outcome of the smaller beneficial shock on the sugar cane in more severe scenarios of climate change. In this sense it has a national decline of the economic activity to the previous simulation. In labor market remain the trends of migration of the labor force from Northeast and Center West regions for the other regions. Nevertheless, this migration is intense, proportionally, in most qualified persons of the labor market. The climate change, in the lack of measures of intense adaptation and mitigation can represent a risk for historically underdeveloped regions or regions of recent development. In special, shows that the economic impacts in the Brazilian territory are heterogeneous between the great regions and the states that compose it.

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Since the Industrial Revolution at the end of the 18th century, anthropogenic changes in the environment have shifted from the local to the global scale. Even remote environments such as the high Arctic are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Similarly, anthropogenic mercury (Hg) has had a global reach because of atmospheric transport and deposition far from emission point sources. Whereas some effects of climate change are visible through melting permafrost, or toxic effects of Hg at higher trophic levels, the often-invisible changes in microbial community structures and functions have received much less attention. With recent and drastic warming-related changes in Arctic watersheds, previously uncharacterized phylogenetic and functional diversity in the sediment communities might be lost forever. The main objectives of my thesis were to uncover how microbial community structure, functional potential and the evolution of mercury specific functions in lake sediments in northern latitudes (>54ºN) are affected by increasing temperatures and Hg deposition. To address these questions, I examined environmental DNA from sediment core samples and high-throughput sequencing to reconstruct the community composition, functional potential, and evolutionary responses to historical Hg loading. In my thesis I show that the microbial community in Lake Hazen (NU, Canada) sediments is structured by redox gradients and pH. Furthermore, the microbes in this phylogenetically diverse community contain genomic features which might represent adaptations to the cold and oligotrophic conditions. Finally, historical Hg pollution from anthropogenic sources has likely affected the evolution of microbial Hg resistance and this deposition can be tracked using sediment DNA on the Northern Hemisphere. My thesis underscores the importance of using culture-independent methods to reconstruct the structure, functional potential and evolution of environmental microbial communities.

No description available.

The purpose of this thesis is to understand the reasons for the varying adaptation policies in place for coastal states that will experience flooding as result of climate change. Responses to excessive precipitation and worsened flooding differ widely between predominantly conservative and predominantly progressive states. The levels of flooding aren’t fully known, but they are predicted to be increasingly catastrophic as climate change worsens. Coastal populations will only grow more vulnerable to flooding without adaptive measures put in place. Increasing green infrastructure is one of the most effective methods. Adaptation measures vary widely by state and more progressive states have greater amounts of adaptive measures in place. Conservative states have a long history that results in their lack of climate policy and environmental governance.

Inuit constructions of gender in the pre-colonial period were centered around a gendered division of subsistence tasks. It is through this division of labor which gender roles, gendered socialization and spousal roles were formed. However, during the colonial period Inuit subsistence and the role it plays in Inuit society was rapidly and drastically changed. By analyzing the work of three different Arctic ethnographers documenting Inuit subsistence in different time periods and national contexts, this thesis will analyze how political, economic and environmental change in the Arctic has altered Inuit subsistence practices from European contact through the contemporary era. By analyzing how subsistence has changed overtime, this paper will assess the contemporary Inuit food system and the current crisis of food insecurity in Inuit communities. This analysis will be used to understand the social impacts of an evolving Inuit food system and how the emerging mixed wage and subsistence economy has constructed a new gendered division of labor in which Inuit women act as the primary providers of financial capital while men maintain access to natural resources through traditional subsistence pursuits.

Agricultural adaptation to climate change is notoriously context specific. Recently updated projections for the Northeastern US forecast increasingly severe and erratic precipitation events which pose significant risks to every sector of agricultural production in the region. Vegetable and berry farmers are among the most vulnerable to the risks of severe precipitation and drought due to the intensive soil and crop management strategies which characterize of this kind of production. To successfully adapt to a changing climate, these farmers need information which is tailored for the unique challenges of vegetable and berry production, framed at the level of climate impacts, and delivered through the familiar lexicon used by farmers in the region. My approach is grounded by partnerships with farmer networks to inform both the relevance of this information and my outreach strategy for sharing results. This research presents complimentary quantitative and qualitative data sets on adaptive management, and highlights the insight of farmers voices on innovative and promising solutions for managing climate related risks. The goal of the project was to create usable information for producers through a Farmer First approach which privileges the voices and experiences of farmers in determining the information and resources they need. As part of a broader project, this thesis analyzed the results of a regional survey of vegetable and berry growers conducted over the winter months of 2017-2018. The first chapter reviews theoretical foundations for academic study of agricultural management and climate change, with a focus on information usability. The second chapter applies theories of adaptation and resilience to identify agroecological principles for adapting farm management to water extremes and innovative practices emerging in the region. The third chapter uses a regression modelling approach to explore how adaptive management practices vary across site specific characteristics. Our analysis identifies trends and principles for adapting to water excess and water deficits on diversified vegetable and berry farms in the Northeast. The research findings highlight how site characteristics influence the selection of adaptive management practices on farms in the Northeast.

Northeastern forests are in a period of immense change. While forests are inherently dynamic ecosystems, a range of environmental challenges may cause unique and uncertain transformations within forests moving forward. How trees in northern forests respond to these environmental and anthropogenic changes remains uncertain; reductions and increases in the growth of various species and shifts in current species’ ranges may take place. I analyzed associations between tree growth (assessed using xylem increment cores) and a range of site, climate, and pollution deposition variables for seven major tree species in Vermont. First, I looked at red oak (Quercus rubra L.), a species that is projected to expand into the northern hardwood forest. Summer moisture metrics were consistently and positively associated with growth, while higher summer temperatures were often negatively associated with growth. Several pollution metrics were associated with reduced growth – a surprising result for a species not known to be sensitive to inputs of acid deposition. Second, I examined growth of three tree species emblematic of the northern hardwood forest: sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh), American beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.), and yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britton), plus a fourth species, red maple (Acer rubrum L.), whose abundance has increased within the region. Winter moisture (likely snow) was important for all species except for red maple, and either summer moisture (positively associated) or temperature (mostly negatively associated) variables were important for all species, with some differences in relationships based on the elevation or time period evaluated. Pollution metrics were also negatively associated with growth for all species except beech. Third, I studied correlations of growth and environmental parameters for two temperate conifers: eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.) and eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière). For both species, growth was positively associated with warmer spring temperatures but negatively associated with summer temperatures. Negative relationships between pollution deposition and growth for white pine, and to a far lesser extent, eastern hemlock, were also detected. If growing seasons lengthen as projected, temperate conifers may be at a competitive advantage for increased growth if changes in summer temperature and moisture regimes do not add excessive stress that offset possible increases in spring growth. These three studies highlight the importance of considering the distinct seasonal projections for moisture availability and temperature when evaluating the likely growth trajectories of these keystone species.

Global Climate Change has empirical evidence to support the idea that CO2 levels may be affecting weather and health, including rates of infectious diseases. The Midwest region of the United States of America has had the highest increase in giardiasis rates in recent years, and Missouri was chosen for this study as a representative state in the Midwest. There is no definitive answer as to why the rates of giardiasis have changed from 2003 - 2013. The Theory of Climate Change was used as the theoretical framework for this study. The purpose of this research was to determine whether temperature, precipitation and CO2 levels are associated with giardiasis. A cross-sectional design was used for this study with a non-probability sample of reported cases of giardiasis for 2003 - 2013, and data were analyzed using a bivariate analysis and multivariate analysis. There was a negative association between precipitation and number of cases of giardiasis in Missouri residents (p < .05), a positive association between temperature and number of cases of giardiasis in Missouri residents (p < .05), and a positive association between CO2 levels and number of cases of giardiasis in Missouri residents (p < .05). Levels of CO2 modified the association between precipitation and number of cases of giardiasis in Missouri residents (p < .05). Levels of CO2 modified the association between temperature and number of cases of giardiasis in Missouri residents (p < .05). These results demonstrate that climatic factors impact public health significantly. The implications for social change are to have the waterways, wells, and public water tested more often, to reinforce the waterway closures with increased measures to prevent morbidity and mortality with giardiasis when possible, and to raise awareness of the climatic impact on health.