The golf industry is an important sector of the recreation and tourism economy in Canada. In 2009, the Canadian golf industry generated an estimated total direct economic activity of CND$29.4 billion dollars and created over 300,000 jobs for Canadian residents. Within Canada, Ontario is the dominant province with regards to golf’s gross domestic product (GDP). In 2009, the 848 golf courses in Ontario generated $11.5 billion, which equates to 38.7% of Canada’s golf GDP (Strategic Networks Group, 2009). Due to the economic and employment benefits of the Ontario golf industry and its sizeable land use, it is important to fully understand the environmental impacts of golf courses. While concerns have been raised regarding water consumption by the Ontario golf industry, the golf industry in Ontario has never responded to these criticisms with actual water taking data to support their claims of environmental sustainability. Water withdrawals and water use efficiency among golf courses have yet to be quantified by the Province, the golf industry or its critics. This study uses daily water withdrawal data, self reported by 129 golf courses, to the Ministry of Environment (MOE) from 2007 to 2012. The water taking data is used to examine biophysical golf course characteristics that influence water use, to estimate annual water use by golf courses in Ontario, to identify the potential for water use reductions through best management practices (BMPs) and to explore how climate change may influence future golf course water use in Ontario. This study provides a first approximation of water use by irrigation for golf courses in Ontario. The analyses that examined the biophysical characteristics of golf courses indicated that soil type and golf course type influenced water use. During a dry season, golf courses composed of sand and silt dominated soils were found to require more water than they did during a climatically normal season. With regards to golf course type, premier private and private golf courses were found to use a greater quantity of water during both normal and dry seasons when compared to public and semi-private golf courses. The provincial water use analysis revealed that during a climatically normal season, 50.5 billion L of water is used to irrigate Ontario golf courses. Irrigation increased (58%) to 79.9 billion L during a season that was 1.2°C warmer and 29% dryer than normal. This finding indicates that under anticipated climate change by the 2050s, water use on golf courses in southern Ontario could increase by 151% current levels. The analysis for potential water savings for Ontario golf courses revealed that water use reductions of 35% are possible if golf courses adopt similar maintenance and irrigation practices to more efficient golf courses (80th percentile) in Ontario. Further research regarding maintenance practices on golf courses should be carried out to understand what best management practices result in water efficiency among courses. Also, due to the self-reporting nature of the water taking program with the MOE, it has been recommended that a more strict and automated monitoring system be implemented. Lastly, it is strongly believed that in order for the province wide water savings to be achieved, collaboration between the government and the golf industry will be needed. This study is the first approximate of water use for Ontario golf courses, however, more research is needed to examine the MOE’s water taking data in detail to better understand the determinants of water use among similar golf courses.

<p> Natural disasters can be very devastating to the public during their impact phase. After a natural disaster impacts a region, the response and recovery phases begin immediately. Weather conditions may interrupt emergency response and recovery in the days following the disaster. This study analyzes the climatology of weather conditions during the response and recovery phases of hurricanes and tornadoes to understand how weather may impact both environment and societal needs. Using specific criteria, 66 tornadoes and 16 hurricane cases were defined. National Weather Service (NWS) recognized weather stations were used to provide temperature, precipitation, snowfall, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction data. Regional and temporal groups were defined for tornado cases, but only one group was defined for hurricanes. By applying statistical analysis to weather observations taken in the week following the disasters, a climatology was developed for the response and recovery phase. Tornado and hurricane post-disaster climate closely mimicked their synoptic climatology with cooler and drier weather prevailing in days 2-4 after a disaster until the next weather system arrived about 5 days later. Winter tornadoes trended to occur in the Southeast and were associated with more extreme temperature differences than in other regions and season. The results of this study may help governmental and non-governmental organizations prepare for weather conditions during the post-disaster phase.</p>

The object of this study is a program of government that has, as its immediate objective, the modification and regulation of consumer conduct deemed pertinent to climate change. Drawing from the analytical grid and conceptual tools of governmentality, this study has organized and analyzed an archive of documents related to the One-Tonne Challenge, a ‘public education’ program implemented by the Government of Canada from 2003 to 2006. There are numerous forms of conduct targeted by this program, involving many of the mundane and routine practices of everyday life. Despite their heterogeneity, the targeted forms of conduct can all be measured and evaluated according to the greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory, an ecological technology of government that has had its application extended to the ‘personal’ level. As consumers increasingly engage in practices that are energy efficient, a ‘low intensity GHG emission lifestyle’ will emerge as a new societal norm, which is declared to be the ‘ultimate strategic objective’ of the program. The analysis indentifies and describes two rationalities of government articulated within the archive of the program. Liberal principles and assumptions regarding the market economy are ascendant in practice; they delimit the range of governmental techniques that can be put into operation by the state. Nevertheless, the objectives and technologies of this program belong to an ecological rationality of government. It problematizes the liberal emphasis on ‘voluntary action’ and advances state planning of the market economy through price formation as a necessary governmental technique with which to manipulate the demand for energy and ensure that consumers become energy-efficient. The conclusion interprets and diagnoses the main dangers that could arise from the radical transformation of the market economy that would be brought about by an ecological political reason.

The objective of this research was to determine the impact of climate change on the Churchill River basin and perform analysis on uncertainty related to this impact. Three hydrological models were used to determine this impact and were calibrated to approximately equivalent levels of efficiency. These include WATFLOODTM, a semi-physically based, distributed model; HBV-EC, a semidistributed, conceptual model; and HMETS, a lumped, conceptual model. These models achieved Nash-Sutcliffe calibration values ranging from 0.51 to 0.71. Climate change simulations indicated that the average of simulations predict a small increase in flow for the 2050s and a slight decrease for the 2080s. Each hydrological model predicted earlier freshets and a shift in timing of low flow events. Uncertainty analysis indicated that the chief contributor of uncertainty was the selection of GCM followed by hydrological model with less significant sources of uncertainty being parameterization of the hydrological model and selection of emissions scenario.

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of Western Canada is characterized by productive cropland, grasslands, and millions of ‘potholes’ caused by receding glaciers. These potholes fill up with water and form wetlands habitat that is a rich and valuable ecosystem, and is one of the most productive waterfowl habitats in the world. However, the social benefits from wetland ecosystems are not paid to farmers, whose lands support wetlands, leading farmers in the PPR of Canada to drain wetlands. Wetlands habitat in the PPR is also threatened by climate change, due to potentially drier conditions, as well as biofuel policies that are aimed at mitigating climate change (which increase the value of grains relative to wetlands). This research is comprised of four empirical papers that study the optimal level of wetlands retention, as well as the effect of potential future climate change on wetlands. The methods employed include bioeconomic modeling, which maximizes an economic objective (utility of cropping, harvesting ducks) subject to biological constraints (wetlands and waterfowl retention), as well as positive mathematical programming to develop a land use model. In the first paper, a previous bioeconomic model of optimal duck harvest and wetland retention is updated and extended to include the nonmarket value of waterfowl and the ecosystem service and other amenity values of wetlands. Results indicate that wetlands and duck harvests need to be increased relative to historical levels. In the second paper, regression analysis is used to determine the casual effect of climate change on wetlands in the PPR. The model developed in the first paper is then adapted to solve the socially optimal levels of duck harvests and wetlands retention under current climate conditions and various climate change scenarios. Results indicate that the optimal number of wetlands to retain could decrease by as much as 38 percent from the baseline climate. In the third paper, the earlier bioeconomic model is extended to include cropping decisions. Further, the model is solved for disaggregated regions of the PPR. By including cropping decisions, this model can estimate the direct climate effects on wetlands and waterfowl management, as well as land use change due to biofuel policies. The model predicts that climate change will reduce wetlands by 35-56 percent from historic levels, with the majority of this change due to land use change. Wetlands loss is geographically heterogeneous, with losses being the largest in Saskatchewan. Finally, the fourth paper develops a multi-region Positive Mathematical Programming model that calibrates land use in the area to observed acreage in 2006. Policy simulations for both climate effects as well as the effects of biofuel policies determine how climate change will affect land use and wetlands. This model has the advantage of modeling the trade off between all major land uses in the area and is also solved on a region basis. Results indicate that climate change could decrease wetlands in this area by as much as 34 percent; the results are spatially heterogeneous. / Graduate

Thickness distributions of sea ice (g(h)) display a ubiquitous exponential decay (’tail’) in ice above approximately 2 meters thick. This work uses idealised models to examine the root causes of the exponential tail of the sea ice thickness distribution. The ice of thickness greater than 2 meters is formed through the fracture and piling of ice caused by interactions between floes, driven by winds and currents. The material properties of sea ice are complex and mathematical descriptions of the relationship between force and deformation of a floe are still a topic of study. Smoluchowski Coagulation Models (SCMs) are used to develop an abstract representation of redistribution dynamics. SCMs describe populations whose members of fixed size combine at size-dependent rates. SCMs naturally produce exponential or quasi-exponential distributions. An SCM coupled with a thermodynamic component produces qualitatively realistic g(h) under a wide range of conditions. Using the abstract representation of redistribution dynamics from SCMs, a model developed from physical processes specific to sea ice is introduced. Redistribution events occur at rates dependent on the change in potential energy. This model is demonstrated to produce qualitatively realistic g(h). Sensitivity analysis shows that primary model sensitivities are to the relative strengths of the dynamic and thermodynamic components of the model; and to the relative occurrence of ice ridging, shearing and rafting. The exact relationship between the rate of redistribution events and the energy they consume is shown to be of lesser importance. We conclude that the exponential tail of g(h) is a mathematical consequence of the coagulative nature of the ice thickness redistribution process, rather than the material properties of sea ice. These model results suggest the strongest controls on the form of the tail are the relative strengths of thermodynamic and dynamic action, and the relative occurrence of ice ridging, shearing and rafting. / Graduate / 0415 / 0768

<p>How do we, as humans and as scientists, learn about the world around us? In this dissertation, I explore how models--epistemological tools that connect theory and reality--not only structure scientific inquiry (including the social sciences), but also reflect how humans experience and understand the world. Using this insight enables anthropologists and other social scientists to build more ontologically powerful understandings of human behavior. Here, I focus on how humans experience physical and social landscapes--the environments in which they live and with which they interact. The dissertation consists of three studies, each of which build on the previous by adding to the complexity of modeled landscapes. The first concerns static landscapes--those that are unchanging over the temporal timescales relevant to human experience. I develop a topographically-derived index of defensibility and use it to infer defensive behavior among prehistoric populations in the Northwest Coast of North America. The second paper introduces dynamic landscapes--those that change at scales experienced by humans, but whose changes are primarily driven by external forces. An example relevant to agrarian societies is climate change. I develop a new method for reconstructing past climate landscapes and explore the potential impacts of those changes on Ancestral Pueblo maize farmers in the southwestern United States over the past two millennia. Finally, the third paper grapples with complex landscapes--dynamic landscapes in which human behaviors play important and recursive causal roles. I highlight the coevolution of locally-adapted maize varieties and human selection and cultivation strategies as an example of these types of landscapes, and develop frameworks for modeling maize paleoproductivity that can better honor the realities of Pueblo agricultural strategies.

<p> Climate change is a global process that will impact local places in heterogeneous and unpredictable manners. This dissertation considers whose knowledge and observations could contribute to conservation and climate adaptation planning, how perceptions influence social-ecological feedbacks, and how science could be more relevant to decision-makers and local residents. In Chapter 2, I report on interviews (n=36) conducted with ranchers and recreation-based business owners in Colorado to understand their self-perceptions of resilience and vulnerability. I find that ranchers perceive more exposure and sensitivity to climate change and they also demonstrate more adaptive capacity than recreation businesses. In Chapter 3, I convey results from interviews (n=83) completed with various long-term residents of the region surrounding Denali National Park and Preserve. I find that people who have more direct and ongoing experience with natural resources (subsistence users, bus drivers, business owners) have a greater number and more diverse observations of change than Park employees or scientists. In Chapter 4, I describe results from interviews (n=26) with community-defined Gunnison Sage-grouse experts. I find that formal and observational experts had very different explanations of the decline of Gunnison Sage-grouse and disagreed about potential conservation strategies. In Chapter 5, I describe multi-method surveys (41) conducted with ranchers in the Gunnison Basin to understand their perceptions of the potential listing of the Gunnison Sage-grouse under the Endangered Species Act, and their planned responses. I find that ranchers tend to have negative perceptions of the listing and that they plan to take actions, including sales of land and water and decreased participation in conservation efforts, which may result in harm to the Gunnison Sage-grouse. In Chapter 6, I review stakeholder-generated climate change needs assessments (63) to assess the suggestions made to make science more relevant to decision-making. Their suggestions include: interdisciplinary approaches, place-based focus, increased data-sharing and collaboration, and user-driven research. This dissertation demonstrates the importance of understanding perceptions for effective conservation and adaptation, identifies the existence of proactive adaptation strategies, highlights the value of local knowledge in specific situations, and reveals how failure to engage local people may lead to inequitable outcomes.</p>

While climate change mitigation has been on the agenda of spatial planning practitioners for over two decades, adaptation has only become influential in spatial planning practice in recent years. This trend is evident not only at the municipal levelbut also at the regional and national levels. The revised planning and building law from 2011 states that municipalities must consider climate change. In parallel, a body of research focusing on the relationship between gender and concern for environmental and climate change and arguing that women are more concerned and proactive with respect to environmental issues has emerged. However, this research has been criticized for being essentialist and for stigmatizing women and men. The long-term aim of the present dissertation is to contribute to knowledge on how a gender perspective on municipal spatial planning can contribute to efficient and well-informed climate change response, as well as on how a gender perspective, as an analytical framework, can be developed to analyze, on the one hand, spatial planning related to climate change and, on the other, spatial planning more generally. One of the main contributions of my dissertation is to demonstrate that, by including a gender perspective in municipal climate change response, aspects that may be important for achieving efficient and well-informed spatial planning related to climate change response that are not typically prioritized can be afforded prominent places on the agenda. In this dissertation, I refer to these aspects as feminine values and perspectives—or attributes. I also contribute to the development of an analytical framework that can be used by policy makers and scientists to assess how a gender perspective is and can be integrated within municipal spatial planning processes related to climate change response, as well as spatial planning more generally. Furthermore, in addition to the development of efficient and well-informed responses, a dimension of gender equality must be considered. My dissertation contributes to the understanding that planners who adopt a gender perspective must consider the general level of gender equality in a country. Although the primary objective of this dissertation is to contribute to the development of efficient and well-informed policy, issues of equality and democracy cannot be overlooked. As I argue in my dissertation, participatory approaches to spatial planning are imperative for municipal efforts related to climate change. Nonetheless, participatory approaches require spatial planners to ensure that democracy and equality, on the one hand, and efficient and well-informed policy delivery, on the other, do not conflict. / <p>QC 20140214</p>

Abbasi, S., M.Sc., University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, September 2013. Adaptation to Drought in Saskatchewan Rural Communities: A Case study of Kindersley and Maidstone, Saskatchewan. Joint Supervisors: S. Kulshreshtha and E. Wheaton The main aim of this thesis is to gain knowledge of the processes of adaptation that have enabled communities and agricultural producers to function in a relatively dry and drought prone region of Saskatchewan. This investigation was limited to two rural communities – Kindersley and Maidstone. Historically, vulnerability to natural hazards has been considered only a physical phenomenon. As a result, the social characteristic of a place\system, which contribute to vulnerability to natural hazards, are not well studied. This study used both secondary (quantitative in nature) and primary (qualitative in nature) methods to understand exposure, sensitivity and adaption to droughts in two study communities. Quantitative method included estimating drought condition from time series data for both communities. Intensity of the drought was based on Palmer Drought Severity index and Standard Precipitation Index. Given this background, qualitative techniques (semi-structured interviews and participation observations) were employed to explore the sensitivity and adaptation to droughts in the two communities. The results indicated that drought had caused significant economic hardships for farmers and ranchers during the 2001- 2003 period. Crop yield declined more than 50% of normal level for some crops during this period. Producers had undertaken some adaptive actions to counteract the adverse effect of the drought. These included changing their farming practices -- intensive tillage to minimum or zero tillage, diversification in terms of types of crops grown, off-farm employment, and participation in business risk management programs. Respondents reported that drought was not the sole cause of their vulnerability. Social factors such as changing government policies, reduced profit margins, insufficient business risk management programs, and international markets shaped their vulnerability to climate-related natural hazards. The study found a strong sense of alienation between respondents and federal government agencies. The combination of economic stress, inadequate government risk management programming translates into a very narrow window of sustainability for producers should they face a severe multi-year drought in the future.