Thickness distributions of sea ice (g(h)) display a ubiquitous exponential decay (’tail’) in ice above approximately 2 meters thick. This work uses idealised models to examine the root causes of the exponential tail of the sea ice thickness distribution. The ice of thickness greater than 2 meters is formed through the fracture and piling of ice caused by interactions between floes, driven by winds and currents. The material properties of sea ice are complex and mathematical descriptions of the relationship between force and deformation of a floe are still a topic of study. Smoluchowski Coagulation Models (SCMs) are used to develop an abstract representation of redistribution dynamics. SCMs describe populations whose members of fixed size combine at size-dependent rates. SCMs naturally produce exponential or quasi-exponential distributions. An SCM coupled with a thermodynamic component produces qualitatively realistic g(h) under a wide range of conditions. Using the abstract representation of redistribution dynamics from SCMs, a model developed from physical processes specific to sea ice is introduced. Redistribution events occur at rates dependent on the change in potential energy. This model is demonstrated to produce qualitatively realistic g(h). Sensitivity analysis shows that primary model sensitivities are to the relative strengths of the dynamic and thermodynamic components of the model; and to the relative occurrence of ice ridging, shearing and rafting. The exact relationship between the rate of redistribution events and the energy they consume is shown to be of lesser importance. We conclude that the exponential tail of g(h) is a mathematical consequence of the coagulative nature of the ice thickness redistribution process, rather than the material properties of sea ice. These model results suggest the strongest controls on the form of the tail are the relative strengths of thermodynamic and dynamic action, and the relative occurrence of ice ridging, shearing and rafting. / Graduate / 0415 / 0768

No description available.

No description available.

The Antarctic grounding zone has a disproportionately large effect on glacier dynamics and ice sheet stability relative to its size but remains poorly characterised across much of the continent. Accurate ice velocity and thickness information is needed in the grounding zone to determine glacier outflow and establish to what extent changing ocean and atmospheric conditions are affecting the mass balance of individual glacier catchments. This thesis describes new satellite remote sensing techniques for measuring ice velocity and ice thickness, validated using ground measurements collected on the Beardmore, Skelton and Darwin Glaciers and applied to other Transantarctic Mountain outlet glaciers to determine ice discharge. Outlet glaciers in the Transantarctic Mountains provide an important link between the East and West Antarctic Ice Sheets but remain inadequately studied. While long-term velocities in this region are shown here to be stable, instantaneous velocities are sensitive to stresses induced by ocean tides, with fluctuations of up to 50% of the mean observed in GPS measurements. The potential error induced in averaged satellite velocity measurements due to these effects is shown to be resolvable above background noise in the grounding zone but to decrease rapidly upstream. Using a new inverse finite-element modelling approach based on regularization of the elastic-plate bending equations, tidal flexure information from differential InSAR is used to calculate ice stiffness and infer thickness in the grounding zone. This technique is shown to be successful at reproducing the thickness distribution for the Beardmore Glacier, eliminating current issues in the calculation of thickness from freeboard close to the grounding line where ice is not in hydrostatic equilibrium. Modelled thickness agrees to within 10% of ground penetrating radar measurements. Calibrated freeboard measurements and tide-free velocities in the grounding zones of glaciers in the western Ross Sea are used to calculate grounding zone basal melt rates, with values between 1.4 and 11.8 m/a⁻¹ in this region. While strongly dependent on grounding line ice thickness and velocity, melt rates show no latitudinal trend between glaciers, although detailed error analysis highlights the need for much improved estimates of firn density distribution in regions of variable accumulation such as the Transantarctic Mountains.

Thèse (M.Eng.) -- Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, 2005. / La p. de t. porte en outre: Mémoire présenté à l'Université du Québec à Chicoutimi comme exigence partielle de la maîtrise en ingénierie. CaQCU Bibliogr.: f. 138-144. Document électronique également accessible en format PDF. CaQCU

Time series of brightness temperature (TB) measurement obtained at various frequencies by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) are investigated to determine ice phenology parameters and ice thickness on Great Bear Lake (GBL) and Great Slave Lake (GSL), Northwest Territories, Canada. TB measurements from the 6.9, 10.7, 18.7, 23.8, 36.5, and 89.0 GHz channels (H- and V- polarization) are compared to assess their potential for detecting freeze-onset (FO)/melt-onset (MO), ice-on/ice-off dates, and ice thickness on both lakes. The sensitivity of TB measurements at 6.9, 10.7, and 18.7 GHz to ice thickness is also examined using a previously validated thermodynamic lake ice model and the most recent version of the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) model, which accounts for the presence of a lake-ice layer under snow. This study shows that 18.7 GHz H-pol is the most suitable AMSR-E channel for detecting ice phenology events, while 18.7 GHz V-pol is preferred for estimating lake ice thickness on the two large northern lakes. These two channels therefore form the basis of new ice cover retrieval algorithms. The algorithms were applied to map monthly ice thickness products and all ice phenology parameters on GBL and GSL over seven ice seasons (2002-2009). Through application of the algorithms much was learned about the spatio-temporal dynamics of ice formation, decay and growth rate/thickness on the two lakes. Key results reveal that: 1) both FO and ice-on dates occur on average 10 days earlier on GBL than on GSL; 2) the freeze-up process or freeze duration (FO to ice-on) takes a comparable amount of time on both lakes (two to three weeks); 3) MO and ice-off dates occur on average one week and approximately four weeks later, respectively, on GBL; 4) the break-up process or melt duration (MO to ice-off) lasts for an equivalent period of time on both lakes (six to eight weeks); 5) ice cover duration is about three to four weeks longer on GBL compared to its more southern counterpart (GSL); and 6) end-of-winter ice thickness (April) on GBL tends to be on average 5-15 cm thicker than on GSL, but with both spatial variations across lakes and differences between years.

Time series of brightness temperature (TB) measurement obtained at various frequencies by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) are investigated to determine ice phenology parameters and ice thickness on Great Bear Lake (GBL) and Great Slave Lake (GSL), Northwest Territories, Canada. TB measurements from the 6.9, 10.7, 18.7, 23.8, 36.5, and 89.0 GHz channels (H- and V- polarization) are compared to assess their potential for detecting freeze-onset (FO)/melt-onset (MO), ice-on/ice-off dates, and ice thickness on both lakes. The sensitivity of TB measurements at 6.9, 10.7, and 18.7 GHz to ice thickness is also examined using a previously validated thermodynamic lake ice model and the most recent version of the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) model, which accounts for the presence of a lake-ice layer under snow. This study shows that 18.7 GHz H-pol is the most suitable AMSR-E channel for detecting ice phenology events, while 18.7 GHz V-pol is preferred for estimating lake ice thickness on the two large northern lakes. These two channels therefore form the basis of new ice cover retrieval algorithms. The algorithms were applied to map monthly ice thickness products and all ice phenology parameters on GBL and GSL over seven ice seasons (2002-2009). Through application of the algorithms much was learned about the spatio-temporal dynamics of ice formation, decay and growth rate/thickness on the two lakes. Key results reveal that: 1) both FO and ice-on dates occur on average 10 days earlier on GBL than on GSL; 2) the freeze-up process or freeze duration (FO to ice-on) takes a comparable amount of time on both lakes (two to three weeks); 3) MO and ice-off dates occur on average one week and approximately four weeks later, respectively, on GBL; 4) the break-up process or melt duration (MO to ice-off) lasts for an equivalent period of time on both lakes (six to eight weeks); 5) ice cover duration is about three to four weeks longer on GBL compared to its more southern counterpart (GSL); and 6) end-of-winter ice thickness (April) on GBL tends to be on average 5-15 cm thicker than on GSL, but with both spatial variations across lakes and differences between years.

No description available.

Arctic sea ice has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent decades, including a substantial reduction in sea ice extent in summer months. Such changes, combined with relatively recent advancements in seasonal (1-12 months) to decadal forecasting, have prompted a rapidly-growing body of research on forecasting Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales. These forecasts are anticipated to benefit a vast array of end-users whose activities are dependent on Arctic sea ice conditions. The research goal of this thesis is to address fundamental challenges pertaining to seasonal forecasts of Arcitc sea ice, with a particular focus placed on improving operational sea ice forecasts in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS). Seasonal forecasts are strongly dependent on the accuracy of observations used as initial condition inputs. A key challenge initializing Arctic sea ice is the sparse availability of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) observations. I present on the development of three statistical models that can be used for estimating Arctic SIT in real time for sea ice forecast initialization. The three statistical models are shown to vary in their ability to capture the recent thinning of sea ice, as well as their ability to capture interannual variations in SIT anomalies; however, each of the models is shown to dramatically improve the representation of SIT compared to the climatological SIT estimates used to initialize CanSIPS. I conduct a thorough assessment of sea ice hindcast skill using the Canadian Climate Model, version 3 (one of two models used in CanSIPS), in which the dependence of hindcast skill on SIT initialization is investigated. From this assessment, it can be concluded that all three statistical models are able to estimate SIT sufficiently to improve hindcast skill relative to the climatological initialization. However, the accuracy with which the initialization fields represent both the thinning of the ice pack over time and interannual variability impacts predictive skill for pan-Arctic sea ice area (SIA) and regional sea ice concentration (SIC), with the most robust improvements obtained with two statistical models that adequately represent both processes. The final goal of this thesis is to improve the quantification of uncertainty in seasonal forecasts of regional Arctic sea ice coverage. Information regarding forecast uncertainty is crucial for end-users who want to quantify the risk associated with trusting a particular forecast. I develop statistical post-processing methodology for improving probabilistic forecasts of Arctic SIC. The first of these improvements is intended to reduce sampling uncertainty by fitting ensemble SIC forecasts to a parametric probability distribution, namely the zero- and one- inflated beta (BEINF) distribution. It is shown that overall, probabilistic forecast skill is improved using the parametric distribution relative to a simpler count-based approach; however, model biases can degrade this skill improvement. The second of these improvements is the introduction of a novel calibration method, called trend-adjusted quantile mapping (TAQM), that explicitly accounts for SIC trends and is specifically designed for the BEINF distribution. It is shown that applying TAQM greatly reduces model errors, and results in probabilistic forecast skill that generally surpasses that of a climatological reference forecast, and to some degree that of a trend-adjusted climatological reference forecast, particularly at shorter lead times. / Graduate

The increased temperatures in the Arctic accelerate the loss of land based ice stored in glaciers. The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere and holds ~10% of all the freshwater on Earth, equivalent to ~7 metres of global sea level rise. A few decades ago, the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet was poorly known and assumed to have little impact on global sea level rise. The development of regional climate models and remote sensing of the ice sheet during the past decade have revealed a significant mass loss. To monitor how the Greenland Ice Sheet will affect sea levels in the future requires understanding the physical processes that govern its mass balance and movement. In the southeastern and central western regions, mass loss is dominated by the dynamic behaviour of ice streams calving into the ocean. Changes in surface mass balance dominate mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet in the central northern, southwestern and northeastern regions. Little is known about what the hydrological system looks like beneath the ice sheet; how well the hydrological system is developed decides the water’s impact on ice movement. In this thesis, I have focused on radar sounding measurements to map the subglacial topography in detail for a land-terminating section of the western Greenland Ice Sheet. This knowledge is a critical prerequisite for any subglacial hydrological modelling. Using the high-resolution ice thickness and bed topography data, I have made the following specific studies: First, I have analysed the geological setting and glaciological history of the region by comparing proglacial and subglacial spectral roughness. Second, I have analysed the subglacial water drainage routing and revealed a potential for subglacial water piracy between adjacent subglacial water catchments with changes in the subglacial water pressure regime. Finally, I have looked in more detail into englacial features that are commonly observed in radar sounding data from western Greenland. In all, the thesis highlights the need not only for accurate high-resolution subglacial digital elevation models, but also for regionally optimised interpolation when conducting detailed hydrological studies of the Greenland Ice Sheet. / De ökade temperaturerna i Arktis påskyndar förlusten av landbaserad is lagrad i glaciärer och permafrost. Grönlands inlandsis är den största ismassan på norra halvklotet och lagrar ca 10% av allt sötvatten på jorden, vilket motsvarar ca 7 meter global havsnivåhöjning. För ett par decennier sedan var inlandsisens massbalans dåligt känd och antogs ha liten inverkan på dagens havsnivåhöjning. Utvecklingen av regionala klimatmodeller och satellitbaserad fjärranalys av inlandsisen har under de senaste decenniet påvisat en betydande massförlust. För att förutse vilken inverkan inlandsisen har på framtida havsnivåhöjningar krävs en förståelse för de fysikaliska processerna som styr dess massbalans och isrörelse. I de sydöstra och centrala västra delarna av inlandsisen domineras massförlusten av dynamiska processer i isströmmar som kalvar ut i havet. Massförlusten i de centrala norra, sydvästra och nordöstra delarna domineras av isytans massbalans. Ytterst lite är känt om hur det hydrologiska systemet ser ut under inlandsisen; hur väl det hydrologiska systemet är utvecklat avgör vattnets påverkan på isrörelsen. I denna doktorsavhandling har jag använt markbaserade radarmätningar för att kartlägga den subglaciala topografin för en del av den västra landbaserade inlandsisen. Denna kunskap är en viktig förutsättning för att kunna modellera den subglaciala hydrologin. Med hjälp av rumsligt högupplöst data över istjockleken och bottentopografin har jag gjort följande specifika studier: Först har jag analyserat de geologiska och glaciologiska förhållandena i regionen genom att jämföra proglacial och subglacial spektralanalys av terrängens ytojämnheter. Sedan har jag analyserat den subglaciala vattenavrinningen och påvisat en potential för att avrinningsområdena kan ändras beroende på vattentryckförhållandena på botten. Slutligen har jag tittat mer i detalj på englaciala radarstrukturer som ofta observerats i radardata från västra Grönland. Sammanfattningsvis belyser avhandlingen behovet av inte bara noggranna rumsligt högupplösta subglaciala digitala höjdmodeller, utan även regionalt optimerad interpolering när detaljerade hydrologiska studier ska utföras på Grönlands inlandsis.