The studies of exchange rate theory in international finance are divided into several schools. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is one important hypothesis in both the Monetary Exchange Rate theory and the main theory in the Open Macroeconomics Model. Although many models are found upon the existence of PPP, but it still has not been proved empirically. That is why it¡¦s important to examine the existence of PPP. In the past, the statistic analyzing processes are all made directly under the models since all variables have been assumed stationary. However, regressing two non-stationary variables may result in Spurious Regression. The Unit Roots Test and Cointegration Test are developed in order to avoid the problem of spurious regression. Therefore, Unit Roots Test and Cointegration Test should be applied to the variables before estimating during regression analyses. Concerning the power deficiency of Unit Roots Test and Cointegration Test, many researches have adopted the combination time-series and cross-section Panel Data Model in order to improve the power and limitation of small samples. The Panel-Unit Root Test and Panel-Cointegration Test have therefore been developed to avoid Spurious Regression. However, Panel-Unit Root Test and Panel-Cointegration Test are applied with long time-series and large cross-section. Nevertheless, obtaining the data has always been the toughest difficulty during empirical researches, let alone the need for long period and large unit data. These Panel Data Models can only be applied to studies for long period, but not to the short periods. In order to avoid these problems; Binder, Hsiao and Pesaran (2004) have developed the Short Panel Vector Autoregressions (sPVAR) Model, a Panel Data Model developed with short time-series and large cross-section. Therefore, this paper will focus on Purchasing Power Parity under the sPVAR Model with the examination of PPP for the 30 countries since the introduction of Euro (1998 to 2004).

Abstract Due to the arrival of global zoned economy, the fluent fund has promoted the intercommunication of international politics and economy. The multiple investments have become research focus in recent years, leading to the reasons of the relationship and fluctuation in various countries. Thus this research, taking Taiwan as a starting point, analyzes the relationship of stock price with one of our neighbor countries, South Korea, including their deep bid, four major type stocks ( plastics, transportation, steel, electronics), nine major personal shares( Taiwan Plastics and S.K. Chemical Industry, Evergreen Shipping and Han Jin Shipping Co., China Steel Co. and Posco, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics, AUO and Samsung Electronics). By use of E-view software, it analyzes their closing price from June 2001 till June 2005, expecting to improve the investment performances of the government, investors and relevant industries. The study shows that every stock price index has arrays of single root. Going on with Johansen Cointegration relationship with Granger Causality, it can get the following results: I) Only short term relation exists for deep bid, other three major type stocks and nine main industries¡¦ personal shares between S. Korea and Taiwan, except electronic stocks. II) No short term relation exists among deep bid, electronic type stock, Evergreen and Han Chin Shipping Co. personal shares. As for plastics, transportation, steel type stock, China and Posco, Taiwan Electronics and Samsung¡¦s personal shares, S. Korea is a leading indicator as it influences Taiwan¡¦s present situation. On the other hand, Taiwan influences S. Korea as a leading indicator for Taiwan Plastics and S.K. Chemical Industry. These mentioned above are mono-way cause and effect. Finally, research even shows that there¡¦s a mutual cause and effect relation between AUO and Samsung Electronics. III) Taking a general view of weigh value of equity market and short term relation, it can sum up to the following results : 1) The results are the same comparing the leading and backward relation of type stocks to large proportion personal shares. 2) The leading and backward relation of small proportion does not have the same influence as type stocks. 3) The type stocks, that originally do not have cause and effect relation, will appear mutual influence relation if the personal shares take large proportion in type stocks, due to high similarity of production among industries. Key Words: Taiwan stock market , South Korea stock market, Cointegration relationship.

The motivation of capitalism society keeping to make progress is basis on innovation. The text is established in extended type of Cobb-Douglas production function to discuss if the relationship of long term balance existed between R&D capital stock and gross domestic production. First, Dickey and Fuller mentioned Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF test) to examine if all the variables possess unit root particularity. If they do, we can test them by Johansen¡¦s Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to make cointegration relation numbers and cointegration vectors. According them to describe the long term balance relationships between R&D capital stock and gross domestic production. Conclusion of the text , by ADF test to examine the macroeconomic variables of R&D capital stock and gross domestic production are time series. Johansen¡¦s MLE test examined there¡¦s one cointegration vector existed. Apparently the long term balance relationship existed between the R&D capital stock and the gross domestic production. And we can take the normalized cointegrating coefficients back to the Cobb-Douglas production function to recognize the R&D capital stock will be the positive function of the gross domestic production. Thus we can get in R&D expenses to make the economic growth.

In stead of assuming the starting observations as zero, the cointegration test statistic derived in this paper takes the initial conditions into consideration. The statistic helps us understand how the initial conditions affect the test and helps us recognize whether the cointegration relationship exists in the data generation process or not. Beside, with this statistic derived with the concept of discriminant function and residual based test, we can simulate our own critical value table in according to what starting observations we have in hand, what significant level we want and what value of rho we meet under H_1.

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Abstract Divident discount model found further expected dividend discounting to some fix period. The dividends are determined from the the core of company and relates retain earning. In Taiwan stock market, divedneds are not paid per season. So, I adept earning per share to proxy variable and employ market value weight to conduct dividends for Taiwan stock idnex. The next step, investgate the relationship between price index and diviednds using the econometric model was created by Kapetanios et al. (2006). Consequencely, the relationship are fitted discribtion by ESTR cointegration rather than linear cointegration.

The methodology is based on an application of nonlinear ESTR ECM by Kapetanios et al. (2006) to analyze the short-run dynamic adjustment to long-run equilibrium in Taiwan money demand function. We take consideration of Taiwan as a small open economy system, the exchange rate could be included in money demand function. The result indicate that using ESTR ECM to analyze the adjustment behavior of money demand function in Taiwan is better than linear ECM. Our findings point out that the public adjusts at any time for holding money and the speed of adjustment for real balances depends on the size of deviation.

<p>This bachelor thesis examines the convergence properties of inflation rates of the Euro-pean Monetary Union (EMU) countries over the period 1992 to 2007. The period can be naturally split into two periods, according to the Maastricht Treaty and the introduction of the Euro. Since countries were striving to meet the Maastricht inflation criterion for 1997 we will analyse inflation behaviour of the pre-Euro period (1992 to 1997) and post-Euro period (1998 to 2007), in order to see whether each country’s inflation rates have con-verged to the calculated mean of the sample. To analyse the issue we used CPI inflation rate data from IMF Statistical Database over the period 1992 to 2007.</p><p>We study convergence by means of ADF unit-root tests, Engle-Granger cointegration tests and Johansen cointegration tests. These are complemented with descriptive statistics that measure dispersion of inflation rates within the EMU.</p><p>The conclusion to the research problem can be summaries as follows: Our analysis pre-sents clear evidence of reduction in inflation rate dispersion for the period 1992 to 1997, indicating that the Maastricht Treaty had a major impact on the convergence of inflation rates within the EMU for that period. However, we found that only two countries, Austria and Portugal, had a cointegration relationship with the average rate of inflation of the other countries in the sample. For the period 1998 to 2007, the descriptive statistics indicated that the introduction of the Euro resulted in a divergence of inflation rates within the EMU. Those results were further strengthened by the fact that no cointegration relation-ship was found for that period.</p>

This bachelor thesis examines the convergence properties of inflation rates of the Euro-pean Monetary Union (EMU) countries over the period 1992 to 2007. The period can be naturally split into two periods, according to the Maastricht Treaty and the introduction of the Euro. Since countries were striving to meet the Maastricht inflation criterion for 1997 we will analyse inflation behaviour of the pre-Euro period (1992 to 1997) and post-Euro period (1998 to 2007), in order to see whether each country’s inflation rates have con-verged to the calculated mean of the sample. To analyse the issue we used CPI inflation rate data from IMF Statistical Database over the period 1992 to 2007. We study convergence by means of ADF unit-root tests, Engle-Granger cointegration tests and Johansen cointegration tests. These are complemented with descriptive statistics that measure dispersion of inflation rates within the EMU. The conclusion to the research problem can be summaries as follows: Our analysis pre-sents clear evidence of reduction in inflation rate dispersion for the period 1992 to 1997, indicating that the Maastricht Treaty had a major impact on the convergence of inflation rates within the EMU for that period. However, we found that only two countries, Austria and Portugal, had a cointegration relationship with the average rate of inflation of the other countries in the sample. For the period 1998 to 2007, the descriptive statistics indicated that the introduction of the Euro resulted in a divergence of inflation rates within the EMU. Those results were further strengthened by the fact that no cointegration relation-ship was found for that period.

In this paper we examine, by Monte Carlo simulation, size and power of the Johansens trace test when the error covariance matrix is nonstationary, and we also investigate the properties of three different bootstrap cointegration tests. Earlier studies indicate that the Johansen trace test is not robust in presence of heteroscedasticity, and tests based on resampling methods have been proposed to solve the problem. The tests that are evaluated is the Johansen trace test, nonparametric bootstrap test and two different types of wild bootstrap tests. The wild bootstrap test is a resampling method that attempts to mimic the GARCH model by multiplying each residual by a stochastic variable with an expected value of zero and unit variance. The wild bootstrap tests proved to be superior to the other tests, but not as good as earlier indicated. The more the error terms differs from white noise, the worse these tests are doing. Although the wild bootstrap tests did not do a very bad job, the focus of further investigation should be to derive tests that does an even better job than the wild bootstrap tests examined here.