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Hydraulic tomography is a cost -effective technique for characterizing the heterogeneity of hydraulic parameters in the subsurface. During hydraulic tomography surveys, a large number of hydraulic heads (i.e., aquifer responses) are collected from a series of pumping or injection tests in an aquifer. These responses are then used to interpret the spatial distribution of hydraulic parameters of the aquifer using inverse modeling. In this study, we developed an efficient sequential successive linear estimator (SSLE) for interpreting data from transient hydraulic tomography to estimate three-dimensional hydraulic conductivity and specific storage fields of aquifers. We first explored this estimator for transient hydraulic tomography in a hypothetical one-dimensional aquifer. Results show that during a pumping test, transient heads are highly correlated with specific storage at early time but with hydraulic conductivity at late time. Therefore, reliable estimates of both hydraulic conductivity and specific storage must exploit the head data at both early and late times. Our study also shows that the transient heads are highly correlated over time, implying only infrequent head measurements are needed during the estimation. Applying this sampling strategy to a well -posed problem, we show that our SSLE can produce accurate estimates of both hydraulic conductivity and specific storage fields. The benefit of hydraulic tomography for ill -posed problems is then demonstrated. Finally, to affirm the robustness of our SSLE approach, we apply the SSLE approach to transient hydraulic tomography in a hypothetical two- dimensional aquifer with nonstationary hydraulic properties, as well as a hypothetical three-dimensional heterogeneous aquifer.

La evaluación de recursos minerales es esencial para el diseño y la planificación minera, dado que cuantifica la distribución de elementos de interés, subproductos y contaminantes dentro del depósito. Tradicionalmente, los modelos de recursos se elaboran considerando una variable a la vez e ignoran las correlaciones espaciales entre las especies minerales. Los enfoques multivariables, que apuntan a la evaluación conjunta de variables, se ven complicados en la práctica por la dificultad del modelamiento variográfico, más aún si algunos elementos están sub-muestreados. Este trabajo se centra en el problema de la selección de datos para estimar una corregionalización, usando la técnica geoestadística conocida como cokriging. La estimación de cada bloque en el depósito depende del conjunto de datos que se utilice para el cokriging, el que se determina de acuerdo a una vecindad móvil. Se prueban y comparan cuatro vecindades. La primera considera sólo datos de la variable a estimar; la segunda selecciona los datos más cercanos, sin importar si corresponden a la variable a estimar o a covariables; la tercera corresponde a una búsqueda diferenciada de datos de la variable a estimar y de las covariables; la cuarta es similar a la segunda, pero incluye diez veces más datos que ésta. Se consideran tres casos de estudio, que se diferencian en el tipo de muestreo y en la correlación espacial entre variables: un depósito de fierro, donde se quiere estimar los contenidos de fierro, fierro magnético y sílice; un depósito polimetálico, donde las variables de interés son las leyes de cobre, plata, arsénico y antimonio; y un depósito de cobre con información de sondajes de exploración y pozos de tronadura. Para cada caso, se compara las leyes estimadas y la desviación estándar del error de cokriging. Como regla general se demuestra la ventaja del enfoque multivariable, ya que las vecindades que incorporan datos de las covariables tienden a bajar la desviación estándar del error, hasta en un 25%, indicando una mayor precisión. El estudio entrega guías generales para seleccionar adecuadamente los datos para este tipo de estimación.

Submitted by (ana.araujo@ufrpe.br) on 2016-08-18T13:50:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Wellington Jorge Cavalcanti Lundgren.pdf: 2967872 bytes, checksum: c5e5d3f6f8e164ddd738d528b9159fc1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-18T13:50:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Wellington Jorge Cavalcanti Lundgren.pdf: 2967872 bytes, checksum: c5e5d3f6f8e164ddd738d528b9159fc1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2004-03-31 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / This work has analysed the relation among the hydraulic conductivity and the sand, clay and silt content of the soil, in the Ipanema River watershed, in Pesqueira town, Pernambuco State. The measurements have been carried out between february 2003 and april 2003. The principal interest is modeling spacial distribuition of the hydraulic conductivity using cokriging. It has been analised 52 tests of the hydraulic conductivity using a Guelph permeameter in a regular mesh. A transformation was applied to the hydraulic conductivity data to obtain Normality. Although linear correlation between hydraulic conductivity and texture was weak, spatial correlation has been observed. The cokriging produced better precision than kriging, and the maps kept spatial structure. / Este trabalho analisou a relação existente entre a condutividade hidráulica e a granulometria do solo da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Ipanema, em Pesqueira – PE. As medidas foram realizadas no período de Fevereiro de 2003 a Abril de 2003. O interesse principal foi modelar espacialmente através de técnicas geoestatísticas a propriedade condutividade hidráulica, e a granulometria do local, verificar a existência de correlação clássica ou espacial entre estas variáveis, e utilizar a co-krigagem com dois objetivos: melhorar os resultados conseguidos com a krigagem e diminuir o número de pontos amostrais necessários para o mapeamento da condutividade hidráulica da área, utilizando como variável secundária os teores de areia, argila e silte. Foram analisados 52 pontos com medidas de condutividade hidráulica obtidas através do Permeâmetro de Guelph, e o mesmo número de pontos com análise de granulometria em laboratório. As medidas e as sondagens foram efetuadas seguindo uma malha regular. As técnicas geoestatísticas utilizadas foram a krigagem e a co-krigagem.Foi necessária uma transformação raiz quadrada para a obtenção de normalidade dos dados da condutividade hidráulica. As medidas de textura mostraram-se normalmente distribuídas, e a correlação estatística entre cada uma das texturas e a condutividade hidráulica foi muito fraca. Contudo, verificou-se que havia uma correlação espacial entre o conjunto das três medidas de textura e a condutividade hidráulica. A condutividade hidráulica mostrou possuir uma estrutura espacial, assim como também os teores de areia, argila e silte. A transformação raiz quadrada forneceu resultados melhores que a transformação logarítmica, mais comumente usada. A co-krigagem melhorou os resultados obtidos com a krigagem, e permitiu a diminuição de pontos amostrais pela metade sem um aumento significativo dos erros.Pode-se afirmar que para este caso a co-krigagem pode ser usada, pois permite uma diminuição dos pontos amostrais de condutividade hidráulica sem perda significativa de informação, além de melhorar os resultados conseguidos com a krigagem

Ingeniero Civil de Minas / Encontrar un modelo que se ajuste a la distribución conjunta de varios elementos de interés, dependiendo del soporte en el que se estudie (compósito o bloque), es un problema que atañe a la evaluación de yacimientos polimetálicos. Por este motivo, el presente trabajo busca generalizar un modelo de cambio de soporte (a saber, el modelo Gaussiano discreto) al contexto multivariable, aplicándolo a la estimación global de los recursos recuperables sobre determinadas leyes de corte. Se cuenta con una base de datos referente a una veta polimetálica con cinco elementos de interés: plata, oro, plomo, zinc y cobre, siendo la variable de mayor interés la plata. Los datos de leyes son transformados a datos de potencia y acumulaciones, con la finalidad de trabajar con variables aditivas, pasando entonces de un estudio tridimensional a un estudio bidimensional en el plano de la veta. Para validar los resultados obtenidos por el modelo de cambio de soporte, se construye un modelo de referencia, utilizando una cosimulación seguida de un rebloqueo, el que entrega una distribución al mismo soporte que el modelo Gaussiano discreto (bloques de cinco metros de lado). El modelo de referencia es considerado como el escenario real y con ello se tiene un punto de comparación. Los resultados del modelo de cambio de soporte se estudian por medio de análisis de medias, varianzas, histogramas, nubes de correlación y curvas de selectividad (tonelaje-ley, tonelaje-ley equivalente y fino-tonelaje), obteniendo tonelajes, leyes medias y finos a diferentes leyes de corte del elemento principal (plata) o de una combinación de los diferentes elementos (plata equivalente). Se verifica que el cambio de soporte genera una simetrización de las distribuciones y una disminución de la dispersión, generando leyes medias más bajas, mayor tonelaje y una disminución en la cantidad de finos, indicativo de una pérdida de selectividad. Al considerar una ley de corte de plata equivalente de 1000 [g/t], el modelo indica que la cantidad total de roca a extraer es del orden de las 60.000 toneladas y que las leyes medias son de 2269 [g/t] para la plata, 0,25 [g/t] para el oro, 1,53% para el plomo, 2,18% para el zinc y 1,16% para el cobre. La explotación minera selecciona bloques de mineral, de tamaño definido para cada método de explotación, por lo que obtener una buena estimación de las distribuciones al soporte de los bloques de selección es trascendente para evaluar los recursos recuperables por sobre determinadas leyes de corte y el beneficio económico asociado. Puesto que las distribuciones concuerdan globalmente con el modelo de referencia, se recomienda el modelo Gaussiano discreto para ser utilizado en etapas preliminares o de prefactibilidad del proyecto minero, debiendo ser completado por estimaciones locales en etapas posteriores.

Dans le cadre de calcul des assemblages de structures, les bureaux d'études sont à l'heure actuelle encore limités dans la possibilité de mener des travaux d'optimisation. En effet, la résolution numérique des assemblages nécessite la mise en œuvre de méthodes capables de prendre en compte différents types de non-linéarités (frottement, contact et jeux entre pièces). Le coût de calcul associé à ces méthodes est généralement trop important pour mener une optimisation globale nécessitant un trop grand nombre d'évaluations. Afin de pallier à ce problème, ce travail s'appuie sur une démarche d'optimisation à deux niveaux de modèles. Le premier niveau d'optimisation consiste à la création d'un métamodèle sur lequel est effectué une optimisation globale. Le second niveau d'optimisation consiste à mener à bien une optimisation locale sur le modèle mécanique réel. Cette optimisation locale s'appuie sur les résultats trouvés au premier niveau. Deux outils sont principalement utilisés au cours de cette thèse. Tout d'abord les simulations numériques sont réalisées à l'aide de la méthode LaTIn multiparamétrique qui assure la réduction des temps de calcul associés aux multiples résolutions du problème mécanique. L'autre outil plus largement développé au cours de ce travail s'appuie sur la construction de métamodèles multi-fidélité. En effet, la méthode LaTIn est une méthode de calcul itérative, il est alors possible d'avoir accès à un indicateur d'erreur servant de niveau de convergence pour les différents calculs numériques effectués. La construction de métamodèles multi-fidélité a pour particularité de pouvoir incorporé différentes sources d'informations qui sont dans ce travail dites "totalement convergé" lorsqu'un calcul est effectué à convergence et "partiellement convergé" lorsqu'un calcul est stoppé avant convergence. Différentes méthodes multi-fidélité sont testées dans ce travail sur plusieurs exemples mécaniques afin de déterminer les plus performantes. Deux cas industriels sont également traités. / Optimisation strategies on assembly design are often time expensive on industrial case. The main difficulties are due to the non-linearties of the calculation (contact, friction and gap between pieces). The computation cost can be too expensive to lead a global optimization with a large number of evaluation of the mechanical problem.In order to achieve this kind of optimization problems, this work purposes to use a two-levels models optimization strategy. THe first level is defined thanks to the construction of a metamodel which is used to lead a global optimization. On the second level, a local optimization is used on the real mechanical model thanks to the results got from the first level.Two main tools are used in this work. The first one is the multiparametric LaTIn method which enables to reduce drastically the computational time for solving several similar mechanical assembly design problems. The other tool is the one which is the most developped in this work is the constrcution of multi-fidelty surrogate models. Indeed, the LaTIn method in an iterative method, so it is possible to define an error indicator which can be used as a level of convergence of the calculation. The construction of multi-fidelity metamodels has for particularity to incorpore several kind of information which are named as "totally converged" if the calculation has been converged and "partially converged" if the calculation has been stopped premarturly.Different multi-fidélity methods have been investigated in this work on several mechnaical examples in the aim to define the most performant. Industrial case test are trated in this thesis.In order to achieve this kind of optimization problems with an acceptable computational time, this work propose to use a two-levels model optimization strategy based on two main tools: (1) the multiparametric strategy based on the LaTIn method that enables to reduce significantly the computational time for solving many similar mechanical assembly problems and (2) a cokriging metamodel built using responses and gradients computed by the mechanical solver on few sets of design parameters. The metamodel provides very inexpensive approximate responses of the objective function and it enables to achieve a global optimisation and to obtain the global optimum. The cokriging metamodel was reviewed in detail using analytical test functions and some mechanical benchmarks. The quality of the approximation and the building cost were compared with classical kriging approach. Moreover, a complete study of the multiparametric strategy was proposed using many mechanical benchmarks included many kinds and numbers of design parameters. The performance in term of computational time of the whole optimisation process was illustrated.

Questões centrais em diversas áreas do conhecimento como ciências ambientais, geologia, agronomia, dentre outras, envolvem a compreensão da distribuição espacial de processos a partir de dados espacialmente referenciados. Os interesses de pesquisa podem estar na descrição espacial de duas ou mais variáveis e, desta forma, tem-se dois ou mais atributos para modelar. Modelos multivariados são propostos para o estudo se há evidências e/ou explicações contextuais de que os processos não são independentes. Diferentes modelos propostos na literatura foram avaliados e comparados ao modelo Matérn multivariado, recentemente proposto na literatura. Foram considerados o modelo linear de corregionalização, o modelo bivariado gaussiano de componente comum e um modelo bayesiano de regressão espacial. Estes modelos foram ajustados e utilizados para predição espacial geoestatística (krigagem) em um conjunto de dados com duas variáveis climáticas no qual uma parte dos dados foi separada para avaliação das predições. Além disso, foi realizado um estudo de simulação para avaliar a estimação e predição sob o modelo Matérn multivariado. / Key issues in a diversity of subject areas such as environmental sciences, geology, agronomy, among other, require the understanding of the spatial distribution of natural processes from spatially referenced data. Research interests may include the spatial description of two or more variables and therefore, there are tow or more attributes to be modeled. Multivariate models are adopted when there is evidence and/or contextual explanations the two processes are not independent. Different models presented in the literature are assessed and compared to the recently introduced multivariate Matérn model. The linear model of corregionalization, the bivariate Gaussian common component model and a bayesian spatial reression model were considered. The models were fitted and used for geostatistical spatial prediction (kriging) for a pair of weather related variables with part of the data used only for comparing the predicions. Additionally a simulation study assessed estimation and prediction under the multivariate Matérn model.

The study employed Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to investigate the vulnerability of groundwater to NO3 content in Buncombe County, North Carolina in two different approaches. In the first study, the spatial distribution of NO3 contamination was analyzed in a GIS environment using Kriging Interpolation. Cokriging interpolation was used to establish how NO3 relates to land cover types and depth to water table of wells in the county. The second study used DRASTIC model to assess the vulnerability of groundwater in Buncombe County to NO3 contamination. To get an accurate vulnerability index, the DRASTIC parameters were modified to fit the hydrogeological settings of the county. A final vulnerability map was created using regression based DRASTIC, a statistic method to measure how NO3 relates to each of the DRASTIC variables. Although the NO3 concentration in the county didn’t exceed the USEPA standard limit (10mg/L), some areas had NO3 as high as 8.5mg/L.

<p>Ingen vätska kan ersätta vatten och utan vatten kan inget liv existera. Markens fysikaliska egenskaper och kemiska förhållanden styr spridningen av de föroreningsämnen som före¬kommer i mark och i vatten.</p><p>Katrineholms kommun vill i framtiden kunna utnyttja vattenmagasinen i Forssjö. Ett antal observationsrör har placerats i Forssjö, vilket är beläget cirka 8 km sydost om Katrineholm. I dagsläget används inte GIS i kommunen och detta gjorde att jag blev intresserad av vilka möjligheter som GIS skulle kunna tillföra med utgångspunkt i den brunnsdatabas med vatten¬kvalitetsmätningar som finns i kommunen.</p><p>Detta examensarbete består av två delar. Den första delen granskar risken för föroreningar från den del av väg 52 mellan Katrineholm och Nyköping som passerar Katrineholmsåsen sydost om Katrineholm. Inom riskkartan visade det sig att de jordlager som täcker akviferen, Katrineholmsåsen, inte ger naturligt skydd åt grundvattnet mot nedträngande föroreningarna. Den metod som används för att beräkna riskerna för förorenat grundvatten är den hydrogeologiska sårbarhetsmodell som Lena Maxe och Per-Olof Johansson har utarbetat i Bedömning av grundvattnets sårbarhet, 1998.</p><p>I Katrineholms kommun finns fullständiga data om jordarter och en utmärkt brunnsdatabas. För att utredda risken för en förorening av akviferen i Katrineholmsåsen från väg 52, behövs ett bra verktyg. Detta arbete kommer att visa hur och på vilka sätt GIS kan utföra detta. Under arbetets gång har kontakt tagits med Räddningsverket i Karlstad. Via den kontakten har mycket värdefull information skaffats, till exempel hur genomströmnings¬hastigheter beräknas för föroreningsämnen, vilka program som de använder för att beräkna risker vid spill och utsläpp av kemikalier.</p><p>I andra delen av mitt arbete har jag granskat vilken metod som lämpar sig bäst för interpolering av situationen mellan mätpunkterna; kriging eller cokriging, i geostatistiska analyser. För att hitta den bäst anpassade modellen har jag använt ekvationen: fel = r = ύ – v. Här gäller det att söka en modell som ger felet ett värde så nära noll som möjligt.</p><p>Utryckning vid utsläpp av bensin, diesel och övriga petroleumprodukter utgjorde 75 % av fallen enligt Räddningsverket insatsstatistik 2000 – 2003. Dessa ämnen ingår i gruppen kemikalier med benämningen NAPL, Non Aqueous Phase Liquid. I mitt arbete har jag koncentrerat mig på hur utsläpp av denna grupp av kemikalier på väg 52 skulle kunna förorena akviferen i Katrineholmsåsen.</p>

Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) and geostatistical techniques were used to predict diet quality of sub-Saharan African (SSA) livestock, and to create cokriged estimated diet quality maps for cattle across a landscape. Rations of native vegetation were stall-fed to cattle (Bos indicus), sheep (Ovis aries), and goats (Capra hircus) to generate diet-fecal pair data. Trials were conducted in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Ghana. Historical data from Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Niger were included. Diet samples were analyzed for crude protein (CP%), and digestible organic matter (DOM%), while feces were scanned for NIR spectra. NIRS equations were developed from data using modified partial least square (MPLS) regression. Coefficients of determination (R2) of CP for cattle, sheep, and goats were 0.92, 0.95, and 0.97, with corresponding standard errors of calibration (SEC) being 0.90, 0.79, and 0.80, respectively. Standard errors of cross validation (SECV) for CP were 1.12%, 1.08%, and 1.03% for cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. R2 and SEC values for DOM were 0.88, 0.94, 0.94 and 2.82%, 1.68%, and 2.65%, for cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. Corresponding SECV values for DOM were 3.26%, 2.07%, and 3.30%, respectively. The statistics reported were within the acceptable limits for NIRS calibrations. The results indicate that dietary CP and DOM of free-ranging SSA livestock can be predicted with the same precision as that of conventional wet chemistry methods. The cattle equation was used to predict cattle fecal samples collected, from February to August 2000, from selected households located within the northern Ghana savanna. The predicted CP% and DOM% were used with Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, and cokriging technique to create diet quality maps for March and July 2000 for the northern Ghana savanna. Cross validation results indicated a moderate capability of cokriging to estimate predicted CP% for March (r2 = 0.687, SEp = 1.736) and July (r2 = 0.513, SEp = 1.558). Cokriged-estimated DOM value for July was above average (r2 = 0.584, SEp = 3.611), while March DOM% estimation was rather poor (r2 = 0.132, SEp = 3.891). The techniques of cokriging and creation of diet quality maps were moderately successful in this study.