BAKGRUND: Kryptovalutor saknar de makroekonomiska faktorer som ligger till grund för prissättningen av vanliga valutor. Istället visar forskning att spekulativ handel och trendsökande handlare är vanligt förekommande och att det bidrar till ökad volatilitet på marknaden. Forskning visar också att overconfidence och confirmation bias bidrar med såväl ökad volatilitet som påverkan på investeringars resultat. Kunskapen om psykologiska bias och hanteringen av dem kan få stora konsekvenser på resultatet men hur privata kryptoinvesterare ser på dem är fortfarande ett outforskat ämne. SYFTE: Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka och analysera hur väl privatsparare på kryptovalutamarknaden känner till overconfidence och confirmation bias, vilka erfarenheter de har och vilka åtgärder de gör för att hantera dessa bias. GENOMFÖRANDE: Studien har genomförts genom kvalitativa intervjuer med åtta privata kryptoinvesterare. Intervjuerna har utgått från en intervjumall konstruerad för att på djupet kunna ta del av respondenternas kunskaper och erfarenheter. Intervjun har även inkluderat ett test för overconfidence för att möjliggöra för respondenternas egna reflektioner kring sin egen eventuella overconfidence.   SLUTSATS: Studien visar att den teoretiska kunskapen om overconfidence och confirmation bias är låg men att den erfarenhetsbaserade kunskapen är hög. Vad gäller hanteringen av risk och psykologiska bias ligger inte respondenternas strategier i linje med forskningen men marknadens säregna egenskaper möjliggör för ekonomisk vinning i utnyttjandet av andra investerares bias.

A significativa prevalência da infecção pelo HTLV-1/2 no Brasil tornou compulsória a triagem sorológica em bancos de sangue desde 1993. A realização de um diagnóstico eficaz e seguro desta infecção tem importância no correto aconselhamento dos pacientes, bem como na adoção de medidas preventivas em relação à transmissão do HTLV-1/2. Entretanto, a ineficiência dos testes confirmatórios disponíveis somado ao alto custo, são fatores limitantes para a conclusão segura do status clínico do paciente. O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver, padronizar e validar uma plataforma molecular (NAT) multiplex utilizando a metodologia de PCR em tempo real para o diagnóstico confirmatório e discriminatório da infecção pelo HTLV-1/2. Para tanto, foi padronizada a PCR em tempo real utilizando o sistema de sondas de hidrólise (TaqMan®) e a região gênica viral pol foi utilizada como alvo dessas reações. As reações foram otimizadas e validadas em amostras de DNA de controles positivos e negativos, amostras de DNA obtidas a partir do sangue total de indivíduos infectados pelo HTLV-1/2, candidatos à doação de sangue e de pacientes infectados por outras viroses (HIV, HBV e HCV). Após a padronização, a plataforma molecular foi validada em relação aos seguintes parâmetros: sensibilidade analítica, sensibilidade diagnóstica, especificidade analítica, especificidade diagnóstica, precisão e robustez. O limite de detecção do teste (LoD) foi de 3,85 cópias/reação para HTLV-1 e 10,88 cópias/reação para HTLV-2. Para a especificidade, não foi observada reação cruzada com os vírus HAV, HBV, HCV, HIV-1 e HIV-2 e B19V obtidos a partir de um painel de referência viral e nem com amostras de indivíduos portadores de HIV, HBV ou HCV. A sensibilidade diagnóstica foi de 94,6% para HTLV-1 e 78,6% para HTLV-2. O coeficiente de variação encontrado no parâmetro precisão foi de até 0,475%. A metodologia desenvolvida é uma ferramenta simples, de baixo custo, sensível e altamente específica, portanto, adequada para detecção e discriminação da infecção por este retrovírus. A padronização desta plataforma tem um importante impacto no fortalecimento da capacitação tecnológica nacional. Além disso, propõe seu uso no algoritmo diagnóstico, o qual permitirá a conclusão segura do diagnóstico do HTLV-1/2. / The significant prevalence of HTLV-1/2 infection in Brazil has turned the serological testing for this virus mandatory in national blood banks since 1993. The performance of efficient and safe diagnosis of this infection has importance on the correct counseling of the patients and the prevention of the transfusion/hemoderivatives transmitted HTLV-1/2 infection. However, the inefficiency of the available confirmatory tests combined with their high cost present limiting factors for adequate conclusions over the clinical status of the patient. A safe diagnosis of the HTLV-1/2 infection is of crucial importance for the correct counseling of the patients and prevention of the transmission of the infection by blood transfusions, breastfeeding and solid organ transplantations. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop, optimize and validate a molecular multiplex platform (NAT) utilizing the real-time PCR methodology for confirmatory and discriminatory diagnosis of the HTLV-1/2 infection. DNA samples obtained from HTLV-1/2 positive patients, blood donor candidates, and HIV, HBV and HCV infected patients were used in this study. The real-time PCR was optimized using the TaqMan® system (hydrolysis probes) and the pol gene was a target for real-time amplification. After optimization, the molecular platform was validated by analysis of the analytic and diagnostic sensitivity, analytic and diagnostic specificity, precision, and robustness. The detection limit (LoD) of the test was 3.85 copies/reaction for HTLV-1 and 10.88 copies/reaction for HTLV-2. Evaluation of the specificity did not demonstrate cross reaction with human viruses like HAV, HBV, HCV, HIV-1, HIV-2 and B19V obtained from a diagnostic panel and also with samples obtained from HIV, HBV or HCV positive individuals. The diagnostic sensitivity was 94.6% for HTLV-1 and 78.6% for HTLV-2. The estimated variation coefficient of the precision analysis was not more than 0.475%. Therefore, this methodology presents simple, inexpensive, sensitive and highly specific test, and can be used adequately for the detection and discrimination of this retroviral infection. The optimization of this molecular platform have important impact on the improvement of the technologic capability and it can be used for the definition of a national diagnostic algorithm which will permit a safe conclusion of the HTLV-1/2 diagnosis.

Previous research has demonstrated that the political ideology one adopts is strongly influenced by three social-cognitive motives: motives to reduce uncertainty, manage threats, and experience solidarity. The goal of the current studies was to examine the possibility that this relationship might also work in reverse, with political ideology influencing social-cognitive motives. To this end, four studies examined the impact of conservative cues on need for cognitive closure (NFCC), a measure of motivation to reduce uncertainty, and tested between three accounts of the impact of conservative cues on selective exposure (SE) to confirming information, the primary measure of NFCC in the current studies. Studies 1-3 examined how exposure to the American flag, a conservative cue, impacted SE (Studies 1 and 3) and the accessibility of NFCC (Study 2). Study 4 examined how exposure to partisan news sources impacted SE. Exposure to conservative cues may increase SE by making political group membership salient, resulting in the defensive engagement in SE to maintain a positive view of one's political in-group (social identity account), or by priming the political stereotype that conservatives are high in NFCC, which individuals (stereotype priming account) or only conservatives (active self-concept account) assimilate towards. The four studies produced mixed results, but overall, were most supportive of the stereotype priming account. Specifically, there was evidence that exposure to conservative cues increased SE (Studies 1 and 3) and made NFCC more accessible (Study 2). Additionally, these results were not moderated by political ideology, as predicted by the active self-concept account, and there was no evidence of increased affiliation with one's political in-group, as predicted by the social identity account. In Study 4, exposure to the conservative news source reduced SE compared to exposure to the moderate and liberal news sources, results inconsistent with all three accounts. Theoretical and practical implications, as well the complexities of the current studies' results, are discussed.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(情報学) / 甲第22805号 / 情博第735号 / 新制||情||126(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院情報学研究科社会情報学専攻 / (主査)教授 吉川 正俊, 教授 森 信介, 教授 田島 敬史 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Informatics / Kyoto University / DFAM

The thesis deals with the problematics of confirmation of the climatic chamber CTS 65/50, which is a component of CVVOZE testing laboratory. Theoretical part deals with the analysis and description of methods of confirmation of climatic chambers based primarily on technical standards. This part then contains a brief description of a theory of measurement uncertainty. Practical part deals with the design of measurement procedure, which was used for confirmation measurement of ten temperature setpoints. This section then also contains an analysis of the measured data with the evaluation of standard combined uncertainty of temperature measurement. The last part contains an evaluation of the confirmation results, which were the basis for the determination of whether the climatic chamber meets the requirements for the steady-state temperature stability inside the workspace resulting from the standards for the climatic testing

The master's thesis deals with the confirmation of temperature chambers, with the greatest emphasis on the determination of standard measurement uncertainty, both by the classical method (GUM) and the Monte Carlo method. It includes the design of a measuring system with data transfer to a computer using the USB communication interface and an analysis of the sources of uncertainty entering the system, which are then practically quantified. To obtain the data, a measuring experiment was carried out in the CVVOZE testing laboratory. The LabView program was used for virtual instrumentation, in which a measuring application was designed and created, which takes care of the collection and processing of measured data. The result of the application is, in addition to recording temperatures from all measured points in the chamber, also the standard uncertainty calculated by the GUM and Monte Carlo methods, including plotting a histogram from the results obtained by both methods in order to compare them. Finally, the achieved results are compared and evaluated.

This thesis solves procedures of the management of the calibration laboratory to prove agreement of calibration results in specified types of gauges. These are gauge blocks (Johansson gauge), vernier height gauge, deformation manometer pressure and torque spanner. Furthermore designs documentation in accord with metrological confirmation. These are mainly calibration procedures of these gauges and procedures of definition measurement uncertainly and interpretation of results. Completed procedures of calibration are processed as attachment to this thesis with graphic design like as in experimental technician institute of ground forces.

This essay examines the argument given by Richard Dawid (2013, 2019) for the viability of non-empirical assessment of scientific theories. Dawid's argument is supposed to show that trust in a scientific theory can be justified without any direct empirical testing of the theory. This view is fundamentally different from what will be called the classical paradigm of theory assessment. The classical paradigm holds that only empirical testing can justify belief in a theory. It is argued in this essay that Dawid's argument does not provide sufficient reasons for claiming that non-empirical assessment can be seen as a valid form of justification of scientific theories. However, it is further argued that non-empirical assessment still can play an important role when evaluating the status of a theory that cannot yet be tested empirically.

The study addresses whether differently ordered accounts receivable workprograms and task experience relate to differences in judgments, confidence levels, and recall ability. The study also assesses how treated and untreated inexperienced and experienced auditors store and recall accounts receivable workprogram steps in memory in a laboratory environment. Additionally, the question whether different levels of experienced auditors can effectively be manipulated is also addressed.

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