A sociedade sofre mudanças constantes em razão das transformações econômicas e políticas e do avanço tecnológico. Com isso, as organizações têm de ser ágeis para enfrentar situações adversas ou aproveitar oportunidades. Nesse contexto de mudanças constantes surgem novos padrões de competição e, para enfrentá-los, as organizações necessitam de instrumentos que possibilitem identificar sua situação atual e futura: a análise da situação estratégica, que permite à organização identificar os pontos fortes e fracos e as oportunidades e as ameaças; a construção de cenários, que na análise ambiental procura reduzir as incertezas; a formulação de estratégias, que possibilita contemplar as ações para a organização se tornar competitiva. Este estudo propõe um método que possibilita verificar o que pode sair de errado na construção de cenários e na formulação de estratégias e também identificar as conseqüências adversas que os problemas potenciais detectados podem trazer para a organização. Dessa maneira, as estratégias são reformuladas considerando problemas potenciais identificados no processo, de forma a minimizar as conseqüências adversas e atingir os fins propostos. Para confrontar a visão teórica do problema – o método proposto – com os dados da realidade é apresentado estudo de caso desenvolvido em uma empresa de química de especialidades. / The society is constantly changing by virtue of economic and political transformations and of the technology improvement. Therefore, organizations have to be faster in overcoming adversities or seizing opportunities. In such constantly changing context, new competition standards arise and, in order to face them, organizations need tools that identify its present and future situation: the analysis of the strategic situation that allows the organization to identify strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats; the construction of scenarios that attempt to reduce uncertainties in environmental analysis; and the formulation of strategies that allow to contemplate the actions for the organization to become competitive. This study proposes a method makes possible to verify what can go wrong in the construction of scenarios and in the formulation of strategies, trying to identify the adverse consequences that the potential problems identified may cause to the organization. Thus, the strategies are reformulated, considering potential problems identified in the process so as to minimize the adverse consequences and achieve the goals proposed. To compare the theoretical vision of the problem – the proposed method – with facts, a case study developed in a specialty chemical company is presented.

A sociedade sofre mudanças constantes em razão das transformações econômicas e políticas e do avanço tecnológico. Com isso, as organizações têm de ser ágeis para enfrentar situações adversas ou aproveitar oportunidades. Nesse contexto de mudanças constantes surgem novos padrões de competição e, para enfrentá-los, as organizações necessitam de instrumentos que possibilitem identificar sua situação atual e futura: a análise da situação estratégica, que permite à organização identificar os pontos fortes e fracos e as oportunidades e as ameaças; a construção de cenários, que na análise ambiental procura reduzir as incertezas; a formulação de estratégias, que possibilita contemplar as ações para a organização se tornar competitiva. Este estudo propõe um método que possibilita verificar o que pode sair de errado na construção de cenários e na formulação de estratégias e também identificar as conseqüências adversas que os problemas potenciais detectados podem trazer para a organização. Dessa maneira, as estratégias são reformuladas considerando problemas potenciais identificados no processo, de forma a minimizar as conseqüências adversas e atingir os fins propostos. Para confrontar a visão teórica do problema – o método proposto – com os dados da realidade é apresentado estudo de caso desenvolvido em uma empresa de química de especialidades. / The society is constantly changing by virtue of economic and political transformations and of the technology improvement. Therefore, organizations have to be faster in overcoming adversities or seizing opportunities. In such constantly changing context, new competition standards arise and, in order to face them, organizations need tools that identify its present and future situation: the analysis of the strategic situation that allows the organization to identify strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats; the construction of scenarios that attempt to reduce uncertainties in environmental analysis; and the formulation of strategies that allow to contemplate the actions for the organization to become competitive. This study proposes a method makes possible to verify what can go wrong in the construction of scenarios and in the formulation of strategies, trying to identify the adverse consequences that the potential problems identified may cause to the organization. Thus, the strategies are reformulated, considering potential problems identified in the process so as to minimize the adverse consequences and achieve the goals proposed. To compare the theoretical vision of the problem – the proposed method – with facts, a case study developed in a specialty chemical company is presented.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2017-09-28T14:18:05Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Clarissa Gonçalves Pereira_.pdf: 8670836 bytes, checksum: 533233f8fd5ced1f57703f2449cef5ee (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-28T14:18:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Clarissa Gonçalves Pereira_.pdf: 8670836 bytes, checksum: 533233f8fd5ced1f57703f2449cef5ee (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-21 / Nenhuma / A indústria audiovisual faz parte do conjunto de setores que compõem a economia criativa. Sua atuação baseia-se principalmente no desenvolvimento de projetos e na busca de conciliar o raciocínio objetivo da indústria com o pensamento subjetivo da criação. A complexidade de encontrar o equilíbrio entre estas esferas em um ambiente dinâmico e caracterizado por incertezas configura-se como um desafio para o setor e transparece no seu processo decisório. O presente estudo parte do pressuposto que a indústria audiovisual poderia aprimorar seus processos de projeto se as tomadas de decisões estratégicas fossem apoiadas por instrumentos capazes de conjugar estas visões distintas. O design é um campo que está familiarizado em articular o conhecimento e a criatividade com o propósito de gerar aprendizagem, realizar escolhas e resolver problemas. Dentre os recursos estratégicos que o design utiliza para trabalhar com aspectos divergentes, a construção de cenários apresenta-se como um exercício capaz lidar com múltiplas perspectivas, auxiliar a tomada de decisão e consequentemente aprimorar o processo de projeto. Nesse sentido, o objetivo geral desta pesquisa é compreender como a construção de cenários contribui para a tomada de decisão estratégica no âmbito audiovisual. Para tanto, realizou-se entrevistas com experts do setor audiovisual e foi utilizada a análise de protocolo para explorar a construção dos cenários com a técnica think aloud. Como principais resultados, percebeu-se que os cenários de design atuam como uma ponte estratégica capaz de propiciar a compreensão de conceitos diferentes, esclarecer ideias e negociar critérios. A conversa estimulada pelo exercício promove além da geração de novos conhecimentos a aproximação entre os envolvidos, a qual produz uma sensação de segurança e confiança que são aspectos valorizados na tomada de decisão no audiovisual. Para que sejam alcançados os resultados considerados característicos dos cenários como a amplitude do modelo mental e o deslocamento de antigas visões, a pesquisa indicou que é fundamental que as propriedades da prática sejam bem exploradas e que, em especial, o fator “tempo” seja considerado como uma condição chave para a realização do exercício. Além disso, estudo propõe um modelo conceitual que sintetiza de que maneira a construção de cenários de design pode contribuir com a tomada de decisão estratégica do audiovisual e, eventualmente, contribuir com outras áreas do saber, enriquecendo os conhecimentos sobre este tema. / The audiovisual industry is part of the set of sectors that makes up the creative economy. Its performance is based mainly on the development of projects and steadfast search to reconcile the industry objective reasoning with creation subjective thought. The complexity of finding the balance between these spheres in a dynamic environment characterized by uncertainties is a challenge for the industry and is evident in its strategic decision-making process. This study assumes that the audiovisual industry could improve its project procedures if strategic decision-making were supported by instruments capable of combining these different visions. Design is used to articulate knowledge and creativity (taken in this research as objective and subjective thinking), with the purpose of learning process, making choices and solving problems. Among the strategic resources that design uses to deal with divergent aspects, the construction of scenarios is a practice able to handle with multiple perspectives, helping decision making and eventually improving the project process. Thus, this research general aim is to understand how building different scenarios up may help to the strategic decision making in the audiovisual industry. For this purpose, experts from the audiovisual sector were interviewed and protocol analysis was evaluated to explore the construction of scenarios using the think aloud technique. As main results, it was noticed that designing scenarios have effect on providing knowledge of different concepts as well as clarifying ideas and negotiating criteria. Practice stimulated changing impressions and promotes not only the generation of new knowledge, but also the approach between the involved, which produces security and confidence that are important aspects in the decision making process in the audiovisual. In order to achieve the results considered characteristic of building the scenarios up, for instance the mental model amplitude and old visions displacement, the research demonstrated that it is fundamental that the properties of the practice should be well explored and, especially, time must be considered as a key condition for performing the exercise. In addition, the study proposes a conceptual model that synthesizes how the construction of design scenarios can contribute to the strategic decision making of the audiovisual sector and, possibly, contribute with other areas of knowledge, enriching the knowledge on this theme.

This thesis examines strategies of anticipation in contemporary post-cinematic art. In the Introduction and the first chapter, I make the case for anticipation as a cultural technique for the construction of and adjustment to future scenarios. This framing allows analysis of constructions of futures as culturally and media-historically specific operations. Via anticipation, constructions of futures become addressable as embedded in specific performative and material economies: as regimes of prediction. The hypothesis is that cultural techniques of anticipation do not only serve to construct particular future scenarios, but also futurity, the very condition for the construction of futures. Drawing upon the philosophical works of, in particular, Vilem Flusser, Jacques Derrida and Elena Esposito, and the theory of cultural techniques, I conceptualize anticipation through the analysis of post-cinematic strategies. I argue that post-cinematic art is particularly apt for the conceptualization of anticipation. The self-reflexive multi-media interventions of post-cinematic art can expose the realisms that govern regimes of prediction. Three cultural techniques of anticipation and their use as artistic strategies in post-cinematic art are theorized: enactment, soft montage and rendering. Each of these techniques is examined in its construction of futures through performative and material operations in art gallery spaces. The second chapter examines strategies of enactment in post-cinematic installations by Neïl Beloufa. My readings of Kempinski (2007), The Analyst, the Researcher, the Screenwriter, the CGI tech and the Lawyer (2011), World Domination (2012) and Data for Desire (2014) propose that enactment allows for an engagement with futures beyond extrapolation. With Karen Barad's theory of agential realism, the construction of futures becomes graspable as a political process in opposition to a mere prolonging of the present into the future. The third chapter focuses on the strategy of soft montage in works by Harun Farocki. I interpret Farocki's application of soft montage in the exhibition Serious Games I-IV (2009-2010) as a critical engagement with anticipatory forms of organizing power and distributing precarity. His work series Parallel I-IV (2012-2014) is then analyzed as a speculation on the future of image production technologies and their role in constructing futures. The final chapter analyses the self-referential use of computer-generated renderings in works by Hito Steyerl. The installations How Not To Be Seen (2013), Liquidity Inc. (2014), The Tower (2015) and ExtraSpaceCraft (2016) are read as interventions in the performative economies of contemporary image production. I argue that these works allow us to grasp the reality-producing and futurity-producing effects of rendering as anticipatory cultural technique. My thesis aims to contribute to the discussions on a 'turn towards the future' in contemporary philosophy and cultural criticism. My research thus focuses on the following set of questions. What can we learn about the operations of future construction through encounters with post-cinematic art? How are futures and future construction framed in such art? What realisms do future constructions rely on? And how can anticipation as a cultural technique be politicized and democratized?