The investment and financing instrument AT1, or Contingent Convertible bond, has become popular in the post-crisis capital markets, prompting interest and research in the academic world. The instrument's debt definition but equity boosting properties makes it rather extraordinary, and its stochastic features makes multiple mathematical valuation methodologies relevant, especially with regard to the risk of extending the call date of the instrument. With investors still relying on screening tools for valuation, there is an absence of applications using existing mathematical approaches. This report therefore aims to narrow the gap between academia and industry by evaluating the use of such mathematical approaches in a practical investment setting, in particular the Improved Credit Derivative approach and the Extension Premium Relative Value approach shall be examined. Both models strive to account for the extension risk, a commonly disregarded yet critical risk, adding computational challenges to the implementation. Besides from discovering necessary practical adjustments, and their effects, the two pricing approaches are compared in an attempt to confirm their joint purpose of accounting for extension risk. Ending up with varying results consisting of evident offsets for the improved credit derivative model but significant correlations in the case of the extension premium model, their individual performance was diverse while the hypothesis of joint behaviour could be dismissed. / Investerings- och finansieringsinstrumentet AT1, eller Contingent Convertible bond, har blivit populärt i kapitalmarknaderna efter finanskrisen, vilket lett till intresse och forskning i den akademiska världen. Instrumentets grund som skuld men egenskaper för att tillskjuta eget kapital gör det extraordinärt, och dess stokastiska funktioner öppar upp för flertalet värderingsmetoder, speciellt gällande förlängningsrisken hos datumet för kallning. Eftersom att investerare fortfarande använder sig utav screening-verktyg för värdering finns det endast begränsad forskning rörande användande av matematiska metoder. Denna rapport har därför som mål att minska avståndet mellan den akademiska världen och industrin genom att utvärdera användandet av sådana matematiska metoder för praktiska investeringar, särskillt skall Improved Credit Derivative och Extension Premium Relative Value metoderna användas. Båda modellerna strävar efter att ta hänsyn till förlängningsrisken, en risk vanligtvis bortsedd ifrån men trots det kritisk, vilket tillägger ytterligare beräkningsutmaningar vid implementationen. Bortsätt ifrån att upptäcka praktiska justeringar och dess effekter jämförs de två värderingsmetoderna i ett försök att bekräfta deras gemensamma syfte, att ta hänsyn till förlängningsrisken. Att i slutändan nå blandade resultat besående av uppenbara avvikelser för improved credit derivative modellen men starka korrelationer i fallet av extension premium modellen gjorde att man kunde dra slutsatsen att deras individuella prestanda skilde sig medan hypotesen om gemensamt beteende kunde avfärdas.

Contingent convertible bonds (often referred to as CoCo bonds, or simply CoCos) are a relatively new financial instrument designed to absorb unexpected losses. This instrument became increasingly more common after the financial crisis of 2008, as a way to decrease the risk of insolvency among banks and other financial institutions. In this thesis, we will investigate two mathematical models for valuation of CoCo bonds, known as the credit derivative approach and the equity derivative approach, previously developed by De Spiegeleer and Schoutens [1]. We will investigate how these models can be modified in order to be applied to a large set of bonds available on the market. The effect of parameter alterations will also be studied, in order to determine which parameters that influence the pricing accuracy the most. We reach the conclusion that by estimating market triggers, conversion prices and by computing a continuous interest rate from a discrete rates table, the models are indeed executable on a large set of bonds available on the market. However, these parameter estimations come at the cost of reduced accuracy. In general, both investigated models produces prices which follows the overall movements of the market prices quite well, but at the same time with a relatively large absolute distance from the market prices. In other words, the correlation with the market is often high, but the absolute error (measure by root mean square error) is often large. The sensitivity analysis of the parameters shows that the market trigger is the most influential parameter in both investigated models. The fact that we had to estimate the market trigger in order to be able to price a large number of bonds is believed to be the main cause of reduced accuracy. By utilizing a more bond-specific parameter estimation, the accuracy of the investigated models could most likely be improved. We can conclude that there is a trade-off between being able to price a large set of bonds with a mediocre accuracy, or being able to price a few bonds with high accuracy. / Det finansiella instrumentet contingent convertible bond (ofta benämnt CoCo bond, eller endast CoCo) är en relativt ny obligationstyp som används av banker och andra finansiella institutioner för att absorbera oväntade förluster. Instrumentet blev mer vanligt förekommande efter finanskrisen 2008, som ett sätt att minska risken för insolvens. I detta examensarbete undersöker vi två matematiska modeller för värdering av CoCo bonds, nämligen den så kallade credit derivative approach och equity derivative approach, som tidigare har utvecklats av De Spiegeleer och Schoutens [1]. Vi kommer att undersöka hur dessa modeller kan modifieras för att bli applicerbara på ett stort antal obligationer tillgängliga på marknaden. En omfattande parameterstudie kommer att genomföras, för att dra slutsatser kring de mest betydelsefulla parametrarna för prissättningen. Genom att skatta så kallade market triggers, conversion prices och en kontinuerlig ränta är det möjligt att exekvera de undersökta modellerna på ett stort antal obligationer. Dessa skattningar medför dock en viss försämrad noggrannhet. Generellt sett följer priserna från modellerna marknadens rörelser ganska väl, men är samtidigt ganska långt ifrån marknadspriset. Med andra ord är korrelationen hög, men absolutfelet är relativt stort. Parameterstudien visar att parametern som kallas market trigger är mest betydelsefull för prissättningen. Faktumet att vi måste skatta market triggers för att kunna prissätta ett stort antal obligationer tros vara den största anledningen till försämrad noggrannhet. Genom att använda en mer ”obligationsspecifik” skattning av parametrar bör noggrannheten kunna förbättras. I dessa modeller är det en tydlig avvägning mellan att kunna prissätta många obligationer med relativt låg noggrannhet, och att kunna prissätta få obligationer med hög noggrannhet.

This dissertation includes three essays, which investigate contingent claims pricing subject to credit risk based on the structural approach and analyze associated issues of corporate finance. The first essay develops and examines a partial equilibrium model to investigate the effects of macroeconomic condition and firm-level productivity shocks on the determination of optimal debt ratio. The model extends the contingent-claims models of the firm's capital structure by incorporating both the industry demand and firm-level supply factors into the firm's earnings and unlevered asset value. Our model predicts that the optimal debt ratio is negatively correlated to the macroeconomic conditions and the firm-level productivity. Furthermore, the theoretical implications are totally supported by the pooled feasible generalized least squares estimation with 311 Taiwanese listed manufacturing firms' quarterly data over the period from 1994 to 2003. The differences between the high-tech electronics and other manufacturing firms are also investigated, and particularly the high-tech firms are not tied up with the macroeconomic conditions while the others are. The second essay presents a contingent claim valuation of a callable convertible bond with the issuer's credit risk. The optimal call, voluntary conversion and bankruptcy strategies are jointly determined by shareholders and bondholders to maximize the equity value and the bond value, respectively. Our model not only incorporates tax benefits, bankruptcy costs, refunding costs and a call notice period, but also takes account of the issuer's debt size and structure. The numerical results show that the predicted optimal call policies are generally consistent with recent empirical findings; therefore calling convertible bonds too late or too early can be rational. The third essay provides a closed-form valuation formula for the Black-Scholes options subject to interest rate risk and credit risk. Not only does our model allow for the possible default of the option issuer prior to the option's maturity, but also considers the correlations among the option issuer's total asset, the underlying stock, and the default-free zero coupon bond. We further tailor-make a specific credit-linked option for hedging the default risk of the option issuer. The numerical results show that the default risk of the option issuer significantly reduces the option values, and the vulnerable option values may be remarkably overestimated in the case where the default can occur only at the maturity of the option.

近幾年來我國資本市場籌資狀況，可轉換公司債為國內多數企業之首選，企業透過發行可轉換公司債取得所需資金，除考量支付較銀行借款為低之利率水準的利息外，亦希望避免採現金募資方式所造成之資本快速膨脹，導致企業獲利能力遭到稀釋，甚至影響企業經營權之掌控。 海外可轉換公司債(ECB)為歐洲債券(Eurobond)和可轉換公司債(Convertible Bond)的結合，是一種屬於海外金融商品，係以純公司債再附加一不可分割之普通股買進轉換權(Equity Call Option)。持有人可於發行後特定期間內，以約定價格（即轉換價格或轉換比率），將公司債轉換成發行公司之普通股股票，所以海外可轉換公司債係一種可轉換為國內股票，且在境外流通或掛牌之上市公司債，同時具備債券及股票投資兩種功能；當股價上漲時，持有者可享受股價上漲之報酬，當股價下跌時，持有者仍可收取固定之債券利息，故本研究欲以海外可轉換公司債做為探討之主題。 本研究個案公司其營運內容為國際散裝航運業務，主要從事國際間散裝貨運運輸。本研究將分析個案公司於2009年至2012年間，發行海外可轉換公司債之原因，對於個案公司經營績效及財務結構會有何影響？籌資完成後，那些因素造成公司在後續的經營管理過程中，影響公司的經營績效及財務結構。本研究希望藉由上述的實證分析，期望使個案公司之經營管理階層能了解此募資方式，是否有達到公司募集資金時之目的，藉以提供個案公司經營管理階層在爾後籌資時決策之參考。

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by Matthew Bailey Greenberg, Ng Hin Wah. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1998. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 61-62). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iv / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- CONVERTIBLE BONDS AND WARRANTS --- p.3 / ConvertIBle Bonds --- p.3 / Value At Maturity --- p.5 / Value Before Maturity --- p.6 / Warrants --- p.8 / The Difference Between Convertible Bonds and Warrants --- p.11 / Considerations of Issuing Convertibles and Bond with Warrants --- p.13 / Valuation of Convertible Bond --- p.15 / Valuation of Warrants --- p.18 / Chapter III. --- CALLABLE BONDS --- p.20 / Performance Characteristics of Callable Bonds --- p.21 / Valuation of a Two-year Callable Bond with the Salomon Brothers Model --- p.22 / Valuation of a Three-year Callable Bond with the Salomon Brothers Model --- p.25 / Step1: Determination of ru and rd --- p.27 / "Step 2: Determination of ruu, rud and rdd " --- p.28 / "Black, Derman & Toy Model (BDT) " --- p.30 / Step 1: Determination of ru and rd --- p.31 / "Step 2: Determination of ruu, rud and rdd " --- p.32 / Chapter IV. --- SINKING-FUND BONDS --- p.37 / Advantages for the Investor --- p.38 / Disadvantages for the Investor --- p.38 / Methods Used by Issuers for Early Bond Redemption --- p.39 / Valuation of Non-callable Sinking Fund Bonds --- p.40 / Valuation of Callable Sinking Fund Bond --- p.45 / Chapter V. --- VALUATION OF A CALLABLE BOND BY A COMPUTERIZED PROGRAM… --- p.47 / System requirements --- p.48 / Opening the program file --- p.48 / Manual for using the program --- p.48 / Construction of Interest Rate Tree --- p.48 / Valuation of a Callable Bond --- p.50 / APPENDIX --- p.55 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.61

本研究主要著重信用風險對於可轉換公司債評價之影響。因可轉換公司債兼具股權與債權之特性，使得它在某些時候亦與一般債權一樣面臨公司無法完全清償的風險。本文的研究架構主要分為兩項：以公司資產價值及以普通股股價為可轉換公司債之標的資產，並將信用風險的設定融入模型之中。在實證部份，則以茂矽二與新纖二這兩檔可轉換公司債為樣本。當以公司價值做為標的時，可再區分為Merton模型的設定或是首次通過時間模型(First Passage Time Model)的設定，此二者並無明顯的差異，主要原因來自於可轉換公司債同時具有債券及股票的性質，公司提前破產與否對可轉換公司債的影響並不大。此外，當以公司普通股股價做為標的時，可再分為以信用價差(credit spread)與Jarrow and Turnbull (1995)來評價其價值，此時，需將不同的信用品質分離出來，給予不同的折現率，當股價處於深度價外時，可轉換公司債對信用風險的敏感度較高。若再以理論價值與市價做比較，則可發現無論是茂矽二或新纖二的理論價值皆高於市價，其中一部份來自於模型設定已將部份發行條款予以簡化所造成的誤差，更重要的原因乃是可轉換公司債的市場流動性不足，造成效率性低落所導致。

The Company often enlarge its scale to maintain its competitive advantage by investing. When company lacks of internal funds, it will raise funds from outside. The purpose of this study is to explore how company chooses financial instruments and influence of the announcement effect on stock price. This study analyzes Taiwan listed company by the the sample period from 1993 to 2005. There are two parts of the thesis. The first is the factor of choosing certain financial instrument. We use logistic regression model, both binary and multinomial, to figure it out. The second is the influence of the announcement effect has on the stock price. We use event study to find whether abnormal return exists. Conclusion: 1. If the company¡¦s size is larger, it will choose debt to raise funds. 2. If R&D expense relative to net sales, debt ratio, the proportion of intangible asset are higher, the company will be tend to raise funds by choosing convertible bond 3. If the stock price is overvalued, the company will choose stock. 4. Taiwan listed company will experience negative stock return whatever it chooses stock, debt, or convertible bond.

The literatures on venture financing mainly focus on proposing resolutions of entrepreneurial moral hazard. However, those researches ignore the fact that venture capital firms might behave opportunistically as well. Hence, this paper offers an effective mechanism to resolve the double moral hazard raised between venture capital firms and entrepreneurs. Three main conclusions are drawn as follow: It is shown that although convertible preferred stock could prevent venture capital firms from opportunistic behavior, it has poor efficiency in dealing with entrepreneurial moral hazard. On the other hand, staged financing, as opposed to convertible preferred stock, could effectively mitigate entrepreneurial moral hazard, but hardly avert from moral hazard raised from venture capital firms. In its conclusion, this study illustrates that both convertible preferred stock and staged financing act as an effective complementary mechanism for each other. Compared with any single approach, this joint mechanism could relatively resolve a certain extent of double moral hazard.

The thesis presents three studies that focus on the wealth effects of hybrid securities namely: convertible bonds and warrant-bonds. The wealth effects of these hybrid securities are investigated through both meta-analysis and event-studies. Chapter 2 incorporates a review of the literature on wealth effects associated with the announcement of convertible bonds and warrant-bond loans. The findings of 35 event studies, which include 84 sub-samples and 6,310 announcements, are analysed using meta-analysis. A mean cumulative abnormal return of 1.14% for convertible bonds compared with 0.02% for warrant-bonds are observed, the significant difference confirming a relative advantage for warrant-bonds. Abnormal returns for hybrid securities issued in the United States are significantly more negative than for those issued in other countries. In addition, issuing hybrid securities to refund debt does not seem to be favoured by investors. Finally, several factors identified as important by theory or in prior research are not significant within the cross-study models, suggesting that more evidence is needed to confirm whether they are robust. Chapter 3 presents a study that examines the market reaction to hybrid security announcements in an emerging country, specifically Malaysia, from January 1996 to December 2009. The results indicate that announcements of the intention to issue convertible bonds in Malaysia are associated with significantly negative abnormal returns of 1.10% (significant at the 10% level) on the event window of (-1, 1). On the other hand, announcements of the intention to issue warrant-bonds document significantly positive abnormal returns of 2.25% (significant at the 10% level) on the same event window. The ‘univariate’ test confirms that the wealth effects associated with the announcement of the intention to issue warrant-bonds is larger (i.e., more positive) than convertible bonds in line with few studies in different markets: Japan (Kang, Kim, Park, and Stulz, 1995), the Netherlands (De Roon and Veld, 1998), and German (Gebhardt, 2001). Non-significant abnormal returns of 0.81% and 0.23% on the event window ( 1, 1) are reported for announcements of hybrid securities by means of private placements and rights offerings, respectively, contradict with the ‘certification hypothesis’ of Hertzel and Smith (1993), and ‘signalling hypothesis’ of Heinkel and Schwartz (1986). This chapter also finds that there is no support for ‘information-signalling’ hypothesis (Ross, 1977), as non-significant abnormal returns are observed in the event window ( 1, 1) for announcements of hybrid securities for all purposes of offering (i.e., debt restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, capital expenditure, and working capital). These findings also highlight that listed firms in Malaysia with high risk uncertainty contribute to more negative abnormal returns in comparison to lower risk uncertainty firms, which contradicts with the ‘risk uncertainty hypothesis’. The final study presented in this thesis, Chapter 4, considers the wealth effects of hybrid security announcements in a developed country, the United Kingdom. This third study investigates the wealth effects of announcements of the intention to issue convertible bonds in the UK market over a period from January 1990 until July 2010. The study period also allows for an investigation on the market reaction to announcements of convertible bonds during the financial crisis that started in August 2007. Using the standard event study methodology, a negative abnormal return of 1.75% (significant at the 5% level) on the two-day event window is reported, confirming the findings of previous UK studies (Abyhankar and Dunning, 1999, and Wolf et al., 1999) which are also in line with studies performed using data from other countries such as US, Canada, Australia, and others. There are no significant differences between the results of the sub-samples before and during the financial crisis, suggesting that the economic conditions do not influence the market response. The results of the event study and the multivariate analysis in this chapter are consistent with the ‘market timing hypothesis’ implying that managers in the UK announce their intention to issue convertible bonds after a period of good stock price performance.