Accurate prediction of mortality is an important component of forest growth and yield prediction systems, yet mortality remains one of the least understood components of the system. Whole-stand and individual-tree mortality models were developed for loblolly pine plantations throughout its geographic range in the United States. The model for predicting stand mortality were developed using stand characteristics and biophysical variables. The models were constructed using two modeling approaches. In the first approach, mortality functions for directly predicting tree number reduction were developed using algebraic difference equation method. In the second approach, a two-step modeling strategy was used where a model predicting the probability of tree death occurring over a period was developed in the first step and a function that estimates the reduction in tree number was developed in the second step. Individual-tree mortality models were developed using multilevel logistic regression and survival analysis techniques. Multilevel data structure inherent in permanent sample plots data i.e. measurement occasions nested within trees (e.g., repeated measurements) and trees nested within plots, is often ignored in modeling tree mortality in forestry applications. Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression takes into account the full hierarchical structure of the data. Multilevel mixed-effects models gave better predictions than the fixed effects model; however, the model fits and predictions were further improved by taking into account the full hierarchical structure of the data. Semiparametric proportional hazards regression was also used to develop model for individual-tree mortality. Shared frailty model, mixed model extension of Cox proportional hazards model, was used to account for unobserved heterogeneity not explained by the observed covariates in the Cox model. / Ph. D.

Parameter estimation is a powerful and adaptable framework that addresses the inherent complexities and uncertainties of financial data. We provide an overview of likelihood functions, and likelihood estimations, as well as the essential numerical approximations and techniques. In the financial domain, where unpredictable and non-stationary market dynamics prevail, parameter estimations of relevant SDE models prove highly relevant. We delve into practical applications, showcasing how SDEs can effectively capture the inherent uncertainties and dynamics of financial models related to time evolution of interest rates. We work with the Vašíček model and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model which describes the dynamics of interest rates over time. We incorporate the Maximum likelihood and Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation methods in estimating the parameters of our models.

Yes / Magnolia champaca Linn. has traditionally been used for medicinal activity in Asia for treating various chronic diseases as well as a source of food, medicines, and other commodities. Due to the long-used history of this plant, the present study was designed to explore the in vitro, in vivo and in silico anti-inflammatory and antineoplastic properties of the methanolic extract and fractions and the pure compound isolated from the most active chloroform fraction (CHF) of the stem bark of the plant. The isolated compound from the most active CHF was characterized and identified as a glycoside, trans-syringin, through chromatographic and spectroscopic (1H-NMR and 13C-NMR) analyses. In the in vitro anti-inflammatory assay, CHF was most effective in inhibiting inflammation and hemolysis of RBCs by 73.91 ± 1.70% and 75.92 ± 0.14%, respectively, induced by heat and hypotonicity compared to standard acetylsalicylic acid. In the egg albumin denaturation assay, CME and CHF showed the highest inhibition by 56.25 ± 0.82% and 65.82 ± 3.52%, respectively, contrasted with acetylsalicylic acid by 80.14 ± 2.44%. In an in vivo anti-inflammatory assay, statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreases in the parameters of inflammation, such as paw edema, leukocyte migration and vascular permeability, were recorded in a dose-dependent manner in the treated groups. In the antineoplastic assay, 45.26 ± 2.24% and 68.31 ± 3.26% inhibition of tumor cell growth for pure compound were observed compared to 73.26 ± 3.41% for standard vincristine. Apoptotic morphologic alterations, such as membrane and nuclear condensation and fragmentation, were also found in EAC cells after treatment with the isolated bioactive pure compound. Such treatment also reversed the increased WBC count and decreased RBC count to normal values compared to the untreated EAC cell-bearing mice and the standard vincristine-treated mice. Subsequently, in silico molecular docking studies substantiated the current findings, and the isolated pure compound and standard vincristine exhibited −6.4 kcal/mol and −7.3 kcal/mol binding affinities with topoisomerase-II. Additionally, isolated pure compound and standard diclofenac showed −8.2 kcal/mol and −7.6 kcal/mol binding affinities with the COX-2 enzyme, respectively. The analysis of this research suggests that the isolated bioactive pure compound possesses moderate to potent anti-inflammatory and antineoplastic activity and justifies the traditional uses of the stem bark of M. champaca. However, further investigations are necessary to analyze its bioactivity, proper mechanism of action and clinical trials for the revelation of new drug formulations.

No / Nutritionally important PUFAs (polyunsaturated fatty acids) mediate some of their bioactivities through formation of oxygenated metabolites. These bioactive lipids are formed by COX (cyclo-oxygenase), LOX (lipoxygenase) and cytochrome-P450-catalysed reactions, as well as non-enzymatic lipid peroxidation. These reactions produce numerous species, some of which can be formed through more than one pathway. MS-based lipidomics offers the selectivity and sensitivity required for qualitative and quantitative analysis of multiple lipid species, in a variety of biological systems, and can facilitate the study of these mediators.

Inhibition of cyclooxygenase (COX)-2 increases cardiovascular deaths. Identifying a biomarker of COX-2 is desirable but difficult, since COX-1 and COX-2 ordinarily catalyze formation of an identical product, prostaglandin H2. When acetylated by aspirin, however, COX-2 (but not COX-1) can form 15(R)-HETE, which is metabolized to aspirin-triggered lipoxin (ATL), 15-epi-lipoxin A4. Here we have used COX-1- and COX-2-knockout mice to establish whether plasma ATL could be used as a biomarker of vascular COX-2 in vivo. Vascular COX-2 was low but increased by LPS (10 mg/kg; i.p). Aspirin (10 mg/kg; i.v.) inhibited COX-1, measured as blood thromboxane and COX-2, measured as lung PGE2. Aspirin also increased the levels of ATL in the lungs of LPS-treated wild-type C57Bl6 mice (vehicle: 25.5±9.3 ng/ml; 100 mg/kg: 112.0±7.4 ng/ml; P<0.05). Despite this, ATL was unchanged in plasma after LPS and aspirin. This was true in wild-type as well as COX-1−/− and COX-2−/− mice. Thus, in mice in which COX-2 has been induced by LPS treatment, aspirin triggers detectable 15-epi-lipoxin A4 in lung tissue, but not in plasma. This important study is the first to demonstrate that while ATL can be measured in tissue, plasma ATL is not a biomarker of vascular COX-2 expression.—Kirkby, N. S., Chan, M. V., Lundberg, M. H., Massey, K. A., Edmands, W. M. B., MacKenzie, L. S., Holmes, E., Nicolaou, A., Warner, T. D., Mitchell, J. A. Aspirin-triggered 15-epi-lipoxin A4 predicts cyclooxygenase-2 in the lungs of LPS-treated mice but not in the circulation: implications for a clinical test.

In this investigation, I explored the praxes of three Black women multimodal artists--including their perspectives, artistic strategies, and creation of material culture objects--to illuminate the myriad ways their work may inspire teachers and learners across various settings. I examined the complex interplay between art, education, and social justice through the lens of Black women's artistic practices. In this research project, I sought to illuminate the transformative potential these practices hold for formal and informal educational settings and assert the need to recognize and integrate Black women artists' diverse epistemologies and aesthetic experiences into broader educational discourses. A central goal entails recognizing the knowledge these artists draw upon and produce. Therefore, this study centers Black women artists’ multimodal production and creative values from an inter-arts perspective that reckons with socio-political critique and aesthetic sensibilities. Theoretical underpinnings for this research are grounded in interlocking critical discourses involving gender, race, power relations, and education. Using a critical arts-knowledge lens, this arts-based project dialogues with and explores ways to make visible the radical aims, unorthodox practices of belonging (McKittrick, 2021), and artistic strategies of Black women artists to reflect on and reimagine the world as they see and experience it. Employing a critical arts-based research methodology, the research engages with the work and perspectives of three Black multimodal artists—Sable Elyse Smith, Renée Cox, and Nanette Carolyn Carter. By examining their artistic strategies, creations, and the socio-political critique embedded in their work, the dissertation reveals how their art challenges conventional educational paradigms and offers radical curricular and pedagogical possibilities. The study is grounded in interlocking critical discourses on gender, race, power relations, and education, utilizing a rhizomatic conceptual framework to explore the interconnectedness of these themes. This research's findings illuminate art's significant role in fostering critical consciousness, challenging existing norms, and advocating for change. Through the narratives and artistic expressions of Black women artists and Black women art educators, the dissertation underscores the urgency of integrating multisensory and multimodal approaches into educational curricula. Such integration enriches the academic experience and prepares students to navigate the complexities of a multicultural world with a deeper understanding and appreciation for the diversity of human expression and knowledge."Beyond Beauty" calls for expanding curriculum and pedagogy that centers on Black women artists' aesthetic encounters, creative processes, and social justice commitments. I advocate for a more inclusive, dynamic, and transformative educational landscape by highlighting these women's narratives and artistic insights. This research contributes to the ongoing discourses on the importance of art in and as education, pushing for a future where the rich tapestry of human experiences is fully recognized and integrated into the very fabric of learning and teaching.

No description available.

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No. of bitstreams: 1 TeseEAMms.pdf: 1490434 bytes, checksum: e7a807666b453630ffb423774d2539b9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-23 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / From the generalized normal distribution and concepts of the generalized autoregressive moving averages models we introduce the generalized normal-ARMA model as an alternative way to model time series exhibiting symmetry and tails that may be lighter or heavier when compared the normal distribution. We present application for proposed model using three time series in the hydrology, economy and publics policy areas. The proposed model is presented as good alternative when compared to ARMA model with normal distribution. We extended this model the case of the asymmetric time series. In this case we used the Box-Cox transformation, denoted by Box-Cox generalized normal ARMA. The particular case, when we use the logarithmic transformation is called generalized log-normal ARMA. We adjusted the models with transformation to the series on monthly average affluent streamflow of the Furnas and Sobradinho hydroelectric plants. We obtain the prediction values for the model with transformation, that are better when compared with the model without transformation. To treat time series that exhibit periodic in the correlation function we defined three extensions for periodic autoregressive model, called generalized normal periodic autoregressive model, generalized log-normal periodic autoregressive model and Box-Cox generalized normal periodic autoregressive model. We can observed that the series on monthly average affluent streamflow of the Furnas and Sobradinho hydroelectric plants have periodic correlation. We present two applications of periodic models from these series. In the models, we note that is not necessary the use of generalized normal distribution in every months, just in some the generalized normal distribution presented better results than the normal distribution. Finally, we define the generalized normal zero inflated distribution and the generalized normal zero inflated ARMA model for time series. Adopting the model for series that have zero inflation and the maximum likelihood method for estimation of parameters, we analyze the serie of the amount of rainfall in the city of São Carlos. / A partir da distribuição normal generalizada e dos conceitos do modelo autorregressivo e de médias móveis generalizado, introduzimos o modelo normal generalizada- ARMA, como alternativa para modelar séries temporais, que exibem simetria e caudas mais leves ou mais pesadas quando comparadas com a distribuição normal. Apresentamos aplicações do modelo proposto, usando três séries temporais, das áreas de hidrologia, políticas públicas e economia. O modelo proposto se apresentou como uma boa alternativa ao modelo ARMA com distribuição normal. Estendemos o modelo para o caso de séries que apresentam assimetria. Neste caso, utilizamos a transformação de Box-Cox, denotado por Box-Cox normal generalizada-ARMA. O caso particular quando utilizamos a transformação logarítmica é chamado de log-normal generalizada-ARMA. Ajustamos os modelos com transformação à séries de vazões das usinas hidrelétricas de Furnas e Sobradinho. Calculamos predições, que para o modelo com transformação, foram melhores, quando comparado ao modelo sem transformação. Com o objetivo de tratar séries que apresentam periodicidade na função de correlação, definimos três extensões do modelo autorregressivo periódico, chamando-os de modelo normal generalizada autorregressivo periódico, modelo log-normal generalizada autorregressivo periódico e modelo Box-Cox normal generalizada autorregressivo periódico. Constatamos que as séries de vazões das usinas hidrelétricas de Furnas e Sobradinho apresentam correlação periódica. Apresentamos duas aplicações dos modelos periódicos propostos usando estas séries. Nos ajustes dos modelos, notamos que não há necessidade da utilização da distribuição normal generalizada em todos os meses, mas em alguns a distribuição normal generalizada se sobressaiu em relação a distribuição normal. Por último, definimos a distribuição normal generalizada zero inflacionada e o modelo para séries temporais normal generalizada zero inflacionada-ARMA. Adotando o método de máxima verossimilhança e o modelo para séries que apresentam inflação de zeros, analisamos a série da quantidade de precipitação pluviométrica da cidade de São Carlos.

Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / This thesis is a theoretical contribution to the debate about statehood in Sub-Saharan Africa. My primary aims have been to interrogate the use of the state concept on the continent, and to open up new theoretical avenues to analyse the state. My starting point has been that the state is a key to solving socio-economic challenges. Yet the social theory that purports to make sense of the state in Africa is poor. Mainstream scholars use prefixes such as ‘failed’, ‘weak’ and ‘quasi’ to make sense of existing African states. If they call for such labels, it is only because an unhelpful ideal type based on the ‘modern’ European state is postulated. Such scholarship is limited to theorising the distance between the ideal type and real states. This approach gives a functionalist account of the state’s relationship with society and economy, but fails to explain the state as a historical product and expression of the distribution of power between social groups. As an alternative way to theorise states, I propose a synthesis between Robert W. Cox and Mahmood Mamdani. Combining Mamdani’s and Cox’s theoretical frameworks avoids the problems that arise when Eurocentric International Relations (IR) theories are applied to an African context. The synthesis adds to both frameworks by addressing a shortcoming in Cox by paying more attention to power struggles in the periphery, and redresses the exclusive focus on Africa in Mamdani. Adding Cox to Mamdani contextualises Mamdani’s African state in space as well as time, whereas adding Mamdani to Cox shows how African states respond to outside pressures and in the process (re)constitute the world order by adding an inside-out pressure. I use a single case study of the Angolan state to illustrate how a Coxian / Mamdanian synthesis contributes to the debate. This theoretical framework turns the attention to four aspects. First, there is a close historical link between the economic structure and the form of the state in the country, from the slave trade to today’s political economy of oil. Second, I look at the attempts of the Angolan state elite to legitimise its own power. I posit that in the context of social destitution and poverty, strategies to sustain consent based rule assumes particular importance. Third, the Angolan state is an expression of internal powers struggles between social groups in the country. The contemporary balance of power is volatile: recent economic growth has the potential of unsettling old power structures, as the relative balance of who has access to economic power changes. Lastly, the world order supports the current structure of power in Angola, largely thanks to the political economy of oil. Oil gives the Angolan regime ample economic resources, as well as crucial support from oil companies and the states that import the oil. This foreign support underwrites the regime and constitutes an important element in its support base

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / Bibliography / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study seeks to analyse regionalism in theory as well as in practice with regard to the Southern African region. Its purpose is thereby twofold: Firstly, this work claims to make a contribution to critical and reflectivist theorising of regionalism. The study of regionalism remains highly dominated by rationalist theories focusing predominantly on states as regionalising actors as well as on formal inter-state frameworks and market-led processes of regional integration. The hegemonic status of these approaches reinforces a specific form of regionalism which is compatible with neoliberal practices in the world economy. In order to reveal shortcomings and normative tenets of conventional theories and to account for the complexity and multidimensionality of regional projects and processes, a combination of theoretical insights from Robert W. Cox’s Critical Theory (CCT) as well as from the New Regionalism(s) Approach (NRA) are proposed as the theoretical framework for the study. The second objective is to bring civil society as a regionalising actor into the debate. Focusing on the highly exclusive and elite-driven regional project pursued by the region’s most comprehensive inter-state framework, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the study addresses the question, as to what extent civil society at the regional level can act as a transformative force in terms of people-centred socio-economic development and social equity. After introducing crucial meta-theoretical, conceptual and methodological considerations, the major theoretical contributions to the study of regionalism are reviewed critically and a critical/reflectivist approach is proposed as an alternative to mainstream rationalist theorising. In a broad historical overview, the social, political, economic and cultural contexts which characterize the contemporary region of Southern Africa are discussed. Subsequently, four regional civil society organisations, namely the SADC Council of Non-governmental Organisations (CNGO), the Southern African Trade Union’s Co-ordination Council (SATUCC), the Economic Justice Network (EJN) of the Fellowship of Christian Councils in Southern Africa (FOCCISA) and the Southern African People’s Solidarity Network (SAPSN), are scrutinized with the intention to assess their transformative potential within SADC. The research conducted for the study is based on an eclectic employment of a combination of mostly qualitative methods, among them field research interviews, participatory observations as well as the analysis of primary and secondary sources/data. Two important conclusions can be drawn from this work: Firstly, an explicitly anti-reductionist and critical theoretical approach is seen as essential to account for the myriad of multi-level structural as well as agency-related factors influencing regionalism and regionalisation in Southern Africa. Secondly, the impact of regional civil society actors investigated in this study with regard to a more socio-economically inclusive form of regionalism remains limited, because of institutional and structural constraints, limited representativeness and a lack of strategic coordination among civil society organisations. Nevertheless, recent developments within civil society at the regional level also provide some reasons for optimism that a broader societal movement might be evolving which, as a transformative alliance, could challenge SADC’s contemporary approach to regionalism. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die studie probeer om regionalisme teoreties en empiries te analiseer met as fokus die Suider-Afrikaanse streek. Derhalwe is die navorsingsdoelstelling tweevoudig, eerstens, is die navorsing daarop gemik om ’n bydrae te lewer tot die kritiese en reflektiewe teoretisering van regionalisme. Die bestudering van regionalisme word steeds oorweldigend oorheers deur rasionalistiese teorieë, en fokus primêr op state as die belangrikste streeks-akteurs, asook op formele inter-staat raamwerke en mark-verwante prosesse van streeksintegrasie. Die hegemoniese status van hierdie benaderinge bekragtig ’n spesifieke vorm van regionalisme wat saamhang met neoliberale praktyk in die wêreld-ekonomie. Ten einde die tekortkominge en normatiewe aannames van konvensionele teorieë uit te wys, asook om rekening te gee van die kompleksiteit en multi-dimensionaliteit van streeks-projekte en prosesse, word ’n kombinasie van teoretiese insigte gebruik uit Robert W. Cox se Kritiese Teorie (CCT), asook insigte uit die Nuwe Regionalisme-benadering (NRA) en aan die hand gedoen as teoretiese vertrekpunt vir die studie. Die tweede navorsingsdoelwit is om die burgerlike samelewing as streeks-akteur binne die analise te inkorporeer. Met as empiriese fokus, die hoogs eksklusiewe en elite-gedrewe streeks-projek wat bedryf word deur die mees omvattende inter-staat streeksinstelling, die Suider-Afrikaanse Ontwikkelingsgemeenskap (SAOG), evalueer en assesseer die studie die vraag tot watter mate die burgerlike samelewing op streeksvlak kan optree as ’n krag vir verandering binne die raamwerk van mensgesentreerde sosio-ekonomiese ontwikkeling en sosiale gelykberegtiging. Na die bekendstelling van ’n aantal meta-teoretiese, konseptuele en metodologiese oorweginge wat van kardinale belang is, word die hoofstroom teoretiese bydraes tot die bestudering van regionalisme krities beskou, en word ’n krities/reflektiewe benadering voorgestel as ’n alternatiewe benadering. Vervolgens word ’n breë historiese oorsig van die sosiale, politieke, ekonomiese en kulturele kontekste wat kenmerkende is van die teenswoordige Suider-Afrikaanse streek gelewer. Hierna word vier burgerlike samelewings-organisasies, naamlik, die SAOG Raad vir Nie-regeringsorganisasies (CNGO), die Suider-Afrikaanse Vakbonde Koördineringsraad (SATUCC), die Ekonomiese Regverdigheidsnetwerk (EJN) van die Gemeenskap van Christelike Rade in Suider-Afrika (FOCCISA) en die Suider-Afrikaanse Mense Solidariteitsnetwerk (SAPSN), onder die loep geneem ten einde hul veranderingspotensiaal binne SAOG te assesseer. Die navorsing wat hiervoor onderneem is, is gegrond binne ’n eklektiese vermenging van hoofsaaklik kwalitatiewe metodes, insluitende veldnavorsing-onderhoude, deelnemende waarneming, asook die analise van primêre en sekondêre bronne en data. Twee belangrike gevolgtrekking word, ten slotte, gemaak. Eerstens, ’n eksplisiete en anti-reduksionistiese, krities-teoretiese benadering word as essensieël beskou om rekenskap te kan gee vir die meervoudige en meervlakkige strukturele asook agent-verwante faktore wat regionalisme en regionalisasie in Suider-Afrika beïnvloed. Tweedens, die impak van die burgerlike samewelings-akteurs waarop hierdie studie gefokus het, om ’n meer sosio-ekonomiese inklusiewe vorm van regionalisme tot stand te bring, is beperk. Die redes hiervoor is van ’n institutionele en strukturele aard, beperkte verteenwoordiging en ’n gebrek aan strategiese koördinering tussen burgelike samelewings-organisasies in die streek. Nietemin, is daar redes vir optimisme wat voortspruit uit onlangse ontwikkelinge binne die streek se burgerlike samelewings organisasies. Hieruit is dit moontlik dat ’n breë sosiale beweging sou kon ontwikkel wat, in die vorm van ’n veranderings-gerigte alliansie, die SAOG se huidige benadering tot regionalisme kan uitdaag.