In Sweden, reporting is voluntary for most common felled game, and the number of voluntary reports can vary between hunting teams, HMP, and counties. In 2020, an improved harvest estimation model was developed, which reduced the sensitivity to low reporting. However, there were still some limits to the model, where large, credible intervals were estimated. Therefore, additional variables were considered as the model does not take into account landcover among HMPs, [2] the impact of climate, [4] wildlife accidents, and [4] geographical distribution, creating the covariate model. This study aimed to compare the new model with the covariate model to see if covariates would reduce the large, credible intervals. Two hypothesis tests were performed: evaluation of predictive performance using leave one out cross-validation and evaluation of the 95 % credible interval. Evaluation of predictive performance was performed by examining the difference in expected log-pointwise predictive density (ELPD) and standard error (SE) for each species and model. The results show that the covariates model ranked highest for all ten species, and out of the ten species, six had an (ELPD) difference of two to four, which implies that there is support that the covariate model will be a better predictor for other datasets than this one. At least one covariate had an apparent effect on harvest estimates for nine out of ten species. Finally, the covariate model reduced the large uncertainties, which was an improvement of the null model, indicating that harvest estimates can be improved by taking covariates into account.

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / The Constitution of the Republic of South Africa entrenches the status of local government as a distinct sphere of government.1 In terms of section 40(1), the government of the Republic is constituted of three spheres, namely, the national, provincial, and local spheres of government. The local sphere of government has a constitutional mandate of ensuring the provision of services to communities in a sustainable manner.2 Furthermore, municipalities are required ‘to strive to achieve their mandate of the provision of essential services within their financial and administrative capacity.

Text in Afrikaans / Skrywers oar die gesin kom al hoe meer tot die slotsom dat die gesin onvervangbaar is in die sosialiseringsproses van die mens. Die gesin is noodsaaklik vir die modeme mens se soeke na vastigheid, geborgenheid en identiteit. Die oorspronklike verhouding tussen ouer en kind binne die kerngesin is onvervangbaar. Die vraag wat in die studie aan die orde kom is of die modeme gesin wel so 'n belangrike plek inneem in die huidige samelewing. Is die gevolg van al die probleme waarmee die moderne gesin le kampe het en die wisselvallige wereld waarin ons lewe nie juis dat die gesin se plek as veilige hawe al hoe meer bedreig word nie? Daar moet altyd in die bediening aan die gesin onthou word dat die gesin 'n ontwikkelende sisteem is. Daar moet veral by die behoeftes in die verskillende lewensfases aangesluit word. ln God se handeling met. die mens vind ons dat daar 'n baie noue verband is tussen die gesin en die verbond. Soos tewens die hele gemeente, is die gesin ook "'n koninklike priesterdom . .. . . . die eiendomsvolk van God". (1 Pet. 2:9) Die kerk staan voor die wonderlike uitdaging om in die tyd waar daar 'n besondere behoefte aan sosiale verhoudings bestaan, die behoefte te vul met iets wat God self gee, iets wat veel grater as sosiale vriendskap is... . . . koinonia! Des te meer die kerk se invloedsfeer in die samelewing krimp en mense nie meer aktief by die instituut inskakel nie, des te belangriker word die gesin. In die gesekulariseerde samelewing word die gesin die konkrete kontakpunt waarmee die kerk op die plaaslike vlak sy invloedsfeer binne mense se daaglikse leefmilieu kan laat geld. Die studie vra vir 'n andersoortige bediening waarin die behoeftes van die gesin aangespreek word en waar die gesin primer die fokus is. Dit moet 'n bediening aan die gesin en 'n bediening deur die gesin wees. Die gemeente moet gesinne leer en aan hulle demonstreer wat God se doe! met die gesin is. Die kerk is by uitstek in die posisie om die wye verskeidenheid van gesinstipes in die samelewing te kan bedien. Die kerk kan ook gesinne help om aanpassings te maak in 'n veranderende samelewing. 'n Gesinsbediening kan 'n uitstekende nuwe fokus word vir die missie van die kerk. / Researches on the family came to the conclusion that the family is irreplaceable in the socialising process of a person. The family is necessary for the modern persons need for stability, security and identity. The original relationship between a parent and child in the family is irreplaceable. The question which arises in this study is whether the modern family is so important in the current society. Is the result of all the problems which the family faces and the changeable world not that the family as secure harbour is in danger? In the ministry it must always be borne in mind that the family is a developing system. Special attention must be paid so that all the different phases of life are included. In God's involvement with man, we find that there is a very close relationship between the family and the sacrament. As is the entire church, so is the family " ...... priests of the King, ..... God's own people" (1 Pet. 2:19). In a time where there is an exceptional need for social relationships, the church is faced with a great challenge to fill this need with something that is from God, something far more fulfilling than social friendships .... Kononia. The further the churche's influence declines in a society and people withdraw from involvement within the institution, the more important the family becomes. In a secularized society the family becomes the concrete point of contact through which the church can, at local level, use its influence within peoples daily life environment. This study calls for another type of ministry in wt)ich the needs of the family can be addressed and where the family becomes the primary focus.· It must b~ a ministry to the family and through the family. The congregation must educate families as well as demonstrate God's purpose with the family. The church is pre-eminently in a position to serve the various types of families in society. The church is also able to help families to make adjustments in a changing society. A family ministry can become an excellent new point of focus for the mission of the church. / Practical Theology / D.Th. (Practical Theolgy)

Ce mémoire porte sur la simulation d'intervalles de crédibilité simultanés dans un contexte bayésien. Dans un premier temps, nous nous intéresserons à des données de précipitations et des fonctions basées sur ces données : la fonction de répartition empirique et la période de retour, une fonction non linéaire de la fonction de répartition. Nous exposerons différentes méthodes déjà connues pour obtenir des intervalles de confiance simultanés sur ces fonctions à l'aide d'une base polynomiale et nous présenterons une méthode de simulation d'intervalles de crédibilité simultanés. Nous nous placerons ensuite dans un contexte bayésien en explorant différents modèles de densité a priori. Pour le modèle le plus complexe, nous aurons besoin d'utiliser la simulation Monte-Carlo pour obtenir les intervalles de crédibilité simultanés a posteriori. Finalement, nous utiliserons une base non linéaire faisant appel à la transformation angulaire et aux splines monotones pour obtenir un intervalle de crédibilité simultané valide pour la période de retour. / This master's thesis addresses the problem of the simulation of simultaneous credible intervals in a Bayesian context. First, we will study precipation data and two functions based on these data : the empirical distribution function and the return period, a non-linear function of the empirical distribution. We will review different methods already known to obtain simultaneous confidence intervals of these functions with a polynomial basis and we will present a method to simulate simultaneous credible intervals. Second, we will explore some models of prior distributions and in the more complex one, we will need the Monte-Carlo method to simulate simultaneous posterior credible intervals. Finally, we will use a non-linear basis based on the angular transformation and on monotone splines to obtain valid simultaneous credible intervals for the return period.

Accurate self-report assessment of psychopathology depends on individuals responding honestly and accurately. Some respondents, however, may respond in a manner not representative of their traits/symptoms. The MMPI-2-RF contains “validity” scales to detect elevations on over-reporting (OR) or under-reporting (UR) scales which typically correspond to elevations on MMPI-2-RF substantive scales and on instruments administered alongside the MMPI-2-RF. We examined effects of OR and UR on the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5); a self-report instrument that assesses 25 pathological traits used with other diagnostic criteria to diagnose personality disorders (PDs) in Section III of the DSM-5. Using MMPI-2-RF validity scale scores, 908 students and 255 psychiatric outpatients were classified into OR, UR or within normal limit response groups. Significant group differences were found such that differences in the frequency of PD diagnosis emerged across response groups. We believe the PID-5 is vulnerable to OR and UR responding, which potentially compromises its validity.

Accurate self-report assessment of psychopathology depends on individuals responding honestly and accurately. Some respondents, however, may respond in a manner not representative of their traits/symptoms. The MMPI-2-RF contains “validity” scales to detect elevations on over-reporting (OR) or under-reporting (UR) scales which typically correspond to elevations on MMPI-2-RF substantive scales and on instruments administered alongside the MMPI-2-RF. We examined effects of OR and UR on the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5); a self-report instrument that assesses 25 pathological traits used with other diagnostic criteria to diagnose personality disorders (PDs) in Section III of the DSM-5. Using MMPI-2-RF validity scale scores, 908 students and 255 psychiatric outpatients were classified into OR, UR or within normal limit response groups. Significant group differences were found such that differences in the frequency of PD diagnosis emerged across response groups. We believe the PID-5 is vulnerable to OR and UR responding, which potentially compromises its validity.

Text in Afrikaans / Skrywers oar die gesin kom al hoe meer tot die slotsom dat die gesin onvervangbaar is in die sosialiseringsproses van die mens. Die gesin is noodsaaklik vir die modeme mens se soeke na vastigheid, geborgenheid en identiteit. Die oorspronklike verhouding tussen ouer en kind binne die kerngesin is onvervangbaar. Die vraag wat in die studie aan die orde kom is of die modeme gesin wel so 'n belangrike plek inneem in die huidige samelewing. Is die gevolg van al die probleme waarmee die moderne gesin le kampe het en die wisselvallige wereld waarin ons lewe nie juis dat die gesin se plek as veilige hawe al hoe meer bedreig word nie? Daar moet altyd in die bediening aan die gesin onthou word dat die gesin 'n ontwikkelende sisteem is. Daar moet veral by die behoeftes in die verskillende lewensfases aangesluit word. ln God se handeling met. die mens vind ons dat daar 'n baie noue verband is tussen die gesin en die verbond. Soos tewens die hele gemeente, is die gesin ook "'n koninklike priesterdom . .. . . . die eiendomsvolk van God". (1 Pet. 2:9) Die kerk staan voor die wonderlike uitdaging om in die tyd waar daar 'n besondere behoefte aan sosiale verhoudings bestaan, die behoefte te vul met iets wat God self gee, iets wat veel grater as sosiale vriendskap is... . . . koinonia! Des te meer die kerk se invloedsfeer in die samelewing krimp en mense nie meer aktief by die instituut inskakel nie, des te belangriker word die gesin. In die gesekulariseerde samelewing word die gesin die konkrete kontakpunt waarmee die kerk op die plaaslike vlak sy invloedsfeer binne mense se daaglikse leefmilieu kan laat geld. Die studie vra vir 'n andersoortige bediening waarin die behoeftes van die gesin aangespreek word en waar die gesin primer die fokus is. Dit moet 'n bediening aan die gesin en 'n bediening deur die gesin wees. Die gemeente moet gesinne leer en aan hulle demonstreer wat God se doe! met die gesin is. Die kerk is by uitstek in die posisie om die wye verskeidenheid van gesinstipes in die samelewing te kan bedien. Die kerk kan ook gesinne help om aanpassings te maak in 'n veranderende samelewing. 'n Gesinsbediening kan 'n uitstekende nuwe fokus word vir die missie van die kerk. / Researches on the family came to the conclusion that the family is irreplaceable in the socialising process of a person. The family is necessary for the modern persons need for stability, security and identity. The original relationship between a parent and child in the family is irreplaceable. The question which arises in this study is whether the modern family is so important in the current society. Is the result of all the problems which the family faces and the changeable world not that the family as secure harbour is in danger? In the ministry it must always be borne in mind that the family is a developing system. Special attention must be paid so that all the different phases of life are included. In God's involvement with man, we find that there is a very close relationship between the family and the sacrament. As is the entire church, so is the family " ...... priests of the King, ..... God's own people" (1 Pet. 2:19). In a time where there is an exceptional need for social relationships, the church is faced with a great challenge to fill this need with something that is from God, something far more fulfilling than social friendships .... Kononia. The further the churche's influence declines in a society and people withdraw from involvement within the institution, the more important the family becomes. In a secularized society the family becomes the concrete point of contact through which the church can, at local level, use its influence within peoples daily life environment. This study calls for another type of ministry in wt)ich the needs of the family can be addressed and where the family becomes the primary focus.· It must b~ a ministry to the family and through the family. The congregation must educate families as well as demonstrate God's purpose with the family. The church is pre-eminently in a position to serve the various types of families in society. The church is also able to help families to make adjustments in a changing society. A family ministry can become an excellent new point of focus for the mission of the church. / Philosophy, Practical and Systematic Theology / D.Th. (Practical Theolgy)

Pourquoi les négociations de paix échouent-elles? Pour répondre à cette question, ce mémoire synthétise la littérature sur les théories de la négociation et l’intervention de tierces parties dans les conflits intra-étatiques. À l’aide de la méthode de l’étude de cas, j’applique ce cadre théorique au troisième cycle de négociations de paix entre la Turquie et le Parti des travailleurs du Kurdistan, qui s’est tenu de la fin décembre 2012 à Juillet 2015. Le modèle de négociation de guerre met l’accent sur les problèmes d’information asymétrique et engagement crédible qui mènent à l’échec de négociations. Les problèmes d’information asymétrique et engagement crédible sont habituellement plus aigus dans les conflits intra-étatiques. Car il est plus difficile d’obtenir les informations sur les capacités militaires des groupes armés non-étatiques (GANE) et il y a généralement de grandes asymétries de pouvoir entre les États et les GANE. Cette étude de cas apporte ainsi quatre contributions à la compréhension du sujet. Premièrement, lors d’un processus de paix, les deux parties impliquées peuvent consciemment faire des choix qui ne leur permettront pas d’atteindre leurs objectifs. Deuxièmement, ces choix résultent des mesures mal-conçues dans les pratiques de négociation et/ou l’absence de tierce partie qui rétablirait l’équilibre relatif de pouvoir et qui le maintiendrait pendant les négociations de paix. En fin de compte, cela accentue les problèmes d’engagement crédible. Troisièmement, les changements exogènes perturbateurs en matière des capacités relatives, en particulier en faveur des GANE, peuvent produire les problèmes d’information asymétrique. Quatrièmement, certains conflits ne se prêtent pas à l’intervention de tierce partie. Il peut être très difficile ou lourd de conséquence pour les tierces parties de rétablir l’équilibre relatif des pouvoirs. / Why do peace negotiations fail? Answering this question, this dissertation synthesizes the literature on bargaining theory and third party involvement in intrastate conflicts. Using qualitative case study methods, I employ this theoretical framework to the third round of the peace talks between Turkey and Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which was held between December 2012 and July 2015. Bargaining model of war highlights the problems of information asymmetries and credible commitment that lead to bargaining failures. Information asymmetries and commitment problems are usually more severe in intrastate conflicts because it tends to be more difficult to obtain information about the military capabilities of non-state armed groups (NSAGs) and there tends to be larger power asymmetries between states and NSAGs. The case highlights four sets of implications. First, both sides in a peace process can willingly make choices that fail to achieve the ends to which they aspired. Second, these choices result from ill-designed measures in bargaining practices and/or the lack of a third party that would redress the relative balance of power and maintain it during the peace talks. This ultimately intensifies the problems of credible commitment. Third, disruptive exogenous shifts in relative capabilities, especially in favor of the NSAG, may produce asymmetric information problems. Fourth, some conflicts do not lend themselves to third-party involvement, as it may be too difficult or costly for third parties to redress the relative balance of power.