This thesis investigates the use of newly-developed survival analysis tools for credit scoring. Credit scoring techniques are currently used by financial institutions to estimate the probability of a customer defaulting on a loan by a predetermined time in the future. While a number of classification techniques are currently used, banks are now becoming more concerned with estimating the lifetime of the loan rather than just the probability of default. Difficulties arise when using standard statistical techniques due to the presence of censoring in the data. Survival analysis, originating from medical and engineering fields, is an area of statistics that typically deals with censored lifetime data. The theoretical developments in this thesis revolve around linear regression for censored data, in particular the Buckley-James method. The Buckley-James method is analogous to linear regression and gives estimates of the mean expected lifetime given a set of explanato ry variables. The first development is a measure of fit for censored regression, similar to the classical r-squared of linear regression. Next, the variable-reduction technique of stepwise selection is extended to the Buckley-James method. For the last development, the Buckley-James algorithm is altered to incorporate non-linear regression methods such as neural networks and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). MARS shows promise in terms of predictive power and interpretability in both simulation and empirical studies. The practical section of the thesis involves using the new techniques to predict the time to default and time to repayment of unsecured personal loans from a database obtained from a major Australian bank. The analyses are unique, being the first published work on applying Buckley-James and related methods to a large-scale financial database.

The thesis contributes to the study of the relationship between competition and incentives, when asymmetric information is taken into account. Our main focus is the analysis of loan relationships. The first two chapters analyze the relationship between borrowers' financial constraints and endogenous fluctuations. We try to provide a potential departure from the traditional corporate finance theories by showing that the characteristics of firms' capital structure (i.e. their debt-to-equity ratio) can be affected by macroeconomic conditions. We construct a dynamic economy with asymmetric information in the credit market. The features of optimal securities issued at equilibrium are influenced by macroeconomic conditions. As a by-product, the debt-to-equity ratio in the overall economy will evolve according to the dynamics of aggregate variables. The remaining of the thesis develops a theoretical analysis of credit relationships where multiple financiers compete over the loan contracts they are offering to entrepreneurs-borrowers. To this extent, Chapter 3 proposes a unified framework to analyze the so-called literature on competing mechanisms and provides new results in terms of characterizing the equilibria of multi-principal multi-agent games. In the specific context of common agency games, we show that the introduction of a separability requirement on agent's preferences with respect to the contract offers she receives from principals is a sufficient condition to retrieve the Revelation Principle. Importantly, no restriction on principals' preferences is introduced. Chapter 4 investigates credit market relationships when competing lenders are explicitly considered. A reformulation of the traditional credit channel of Monetary Policy is then suggested. When lenders are strategically competing on their credit contract offers, positive-profit equilibria typically arise. Our analysis considers both the exclusive case and the non-exclusive one and it argues that monetary factors may affect the real sector mainly by modifying the structure of markets. The last chapter discusses the welfare implications of contractual externalities that arise in the presence of multiple financiers. We consider a scenario where a Social Planner is subject to the same informational constraints faced by principals in a simple model of the credit market. We identify conditions that sustain constrained-efficiency of market equilibria.

This dissertation examines stock return predictability with aggregate credit conditions. The aggregate credit conditions are empirically measured by credit standards (Standards) derived from the Federal Reserve Board's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Using Standards, this study investigates whether the aggregate credit conditions predict the expected returns and volatility of the stock market. The first essay, "Credit Conditions and Expected Stock Returns," analyzes the predictability of U.S. aggregate stock returns using a measure of credit conditions, Standards. The analysis reveals that Standards is a strong predictor of stock returns at a business cycle frequency, especially in the post-1990 data period. Empirically the essay demonstrates that a tightening of Standards predicts lower future stock returns. Standards performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample and is robust to a host of consistency checks including a small sample analysis. The second essay, "Credit Conditions and Stock Return Volatility," examines the role played by credit conditions in predicting aggregate stock market return volatility. The essay employs a measure of credit conditions, Standards in the stock return volatility prediction. Using the level and the log of realized volatility as the estimator of the stock return volatility, this study finds that Standards is a strong predictor of U.S. stock return volatility. Overall, the forecasting power of Standards is strongest during tightening credit periods.

This thesis is a collection of three essays in empirical studies on derivatives. In the first chapter, I investigate whether credit default swap spreads are affected by how the total risk is decomposed into the systematic risk and the idiosyncratic risk for a given level of the total risk. The risk composition is measured by the systematic risk proportion, defined as the proportion of the systematic variance in the total variance. I find that a firm’s systematic risk proportion has a negative and significant effect on its CDS spreads. Moreover, this empirical finding is robust to various alternative specifications and estimations. Therefore, the composition of the total risk is an important determinant of CDS spreads. In the second chapter, I estimate the illiquidity premium in the CDS spreads based on Jarrow’s illiquidity-modified Merton model using the transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation method. I find that the average model implied CDS illiquidity premium is about 15 basis points, accounting for 12% of the average level of the CDS spread. I further investigate how this parameter is affected by CDS liquidity measures such as the percentage bid-ask spread and the number of daily CDS spreads available in one month. I find that both liquidity measures are significant determinants of the model implied CDS illiquidity premium. In terms of relative importance, the bid-ask spread is more important than the number of daily CDS spreads statistically and economically. In the third chapter, I investigate the impact of the systematic risk on the volatility spread, i.e, the difference between the risk-neutral volatility and the physical volatility. I find that the systematic risk proportion of an underlying asset has a positive and significant impact on its volatility spread. The risk-neutral volatility in this study is measured with the increasingly popular approach known as the model-free risk-neutral volatility. The surprising positive systematic risk effect was first documented in Duan and Wei (2009) using the Black-Scholes implied volatility. I show that this effect is actually more prominent using the clearly better model-free risk-neutral volatility measure.

Many scholars suggest that credit networks were fundamental to the operation of early modern towns. Unfortunately, the majority of this scholarship ignores the role of women in the debt and credit system. The legal position of early modern women and the nature of the available sources mean that womens experiences are generally not documented in any significant numbers. Historians are therefore forced to speculate on how women might have been involved in borrowing and lending and often end up writing as though the female experience of credit was identical to mens experience of the system. The records of the Baillie Court of Aberdeen, Scotland offer a glimpse at women engaging in debt and credit transactions in large numbers and pursuing transactions that went awry. This study looks at 671 debt cases brought before Aberdeens court system in two years in the late seventeenth-century and reveals that women participated in 46% of these cases. Similar studies, focusing mainly on England, have found female participation in debt and credit to hover closer to the 15% range. While there are some unique characteristics that might explain how Aberdeen would see more women becoming involved in the court system, there is little evidence that Aberdonian women were unusually active in the debt and credit system as a whole, in comparison to the rest of early modern Europe. Instead, Aberdeens court records reveal what was likely a very common, but undocumented, experience in the rest of the pre-industrial world. As a result of this unprecedented level of documentation, we see women involved who would otherwise be invisible to us. The Baillie Court shows married women involved in far greater numbers than either single women or widows, a fact which goes against the traditional image of single and widowed women as the only ones involved in the credit system through their roles as moneylenders. Instead, we find another level of women using debt and credit to secure goods for their households and participating in the economy of the town. We find that, although women were heavily involved in borrowing and lending, their experience of that system was significantly different than that of early modern men. The causes of debt and the amounts for which people would both sue and be sued were substantially different depending on ones gender and marital status. While the statistics that come out of this study are impressive, the human stories are even more enlightening. By examining individual cases, we can see how women negotiated the debt and credit and how they shaped that system to their own needs.

This study examines the issue of tax neutrality of the income tax treatment of credit swaps in Canada in domestic context. It analyzes the applicable tax regime consisting of rules on tax characterization, timing and tax rates through the lenses of symmetry, consistency and certainty approaches. The study argues that the Canadian tax policy focuses on achieving symmetry in income tax treatment, rather than consistency. This is because introducing consistency would contradict the fundamental principles of the Canadian law. The study finds that the current tax regime is only partially neutral because symmetry has not been achieved in respect to credit swaps entered between non-financial organizations. To enhance symmetry, the study proposes to adopt a mandatory mark-to-market basis of taxation of credit swaps for the non-financial organizations. Further, to make income tax treatment more certain, the study proposes that the CRA should issue a non-binding guidance on credit swaps.

The purpose of the study is to better understand the extent to which dual credit contributes to increased access and participation in college. As an initiative to facilitate the transition from high school to college for many students, dual credit has grown in scale and popularity in Ontario in recent years. By giving participating students credit towards both secondary school and college, dual credit is seen as a particularly effective mechanism in assisting disengaged students and groups under-represented in postsecondary education achieve success in high school and college. Still at an early stage of implementation in Ontario, little formal research has been conducted to explore the elements contributing to the program’s success and the benefits and outcomes for participants. Through the use of mixed methods of research, the study explores from a case study perspective the experience of dual credit at a single Ontario college in collaboration with its local partner school boards. Research methods include examination of student grades, policy and program documentation; student and parent surveys; and interviews with staff involved in planning and delivery. The analysis is informed by conceptual frameworks of student change allowing for consideration of a broad range of variables. Results of the study revealed that dual credit was deemed to be a success by students, parents and staff involved with the programs. Dual credit was viewed as particularly effective in terms of academic benefits and creating a greater awareness of college, contributing to student confidence and leading to increased likelihood of college participation. Dual credit participants were found to be primarily middle achievers academically, tended to perform better in dual credit courses than in high school, and obtained slightly higher grades than college peers in the same courses. Given the program delivery models studied, it was concluded that middle achievers were likely to benefit most. The study also concluded that student characteristics including pre-existing confidence and motivation should be considered an important element of success along with program elements and institutional factors. As an innovative program demonstrating positive results, more research should be done to assist in developing dual credit further.

This study examines the issue of tax neutrality of the income tax treatment of credit swaps in Canada in domestic context. It analyzes the applicable tax regime consisting of rules on tax characterization, timing and tax rates through the lenses of symmetry, consistency and certainty approaches. The study argues that the Canadian tax policy focuses on achieving symmetry in income tax treatment, rather than consistency. This is because introducing consistency would contradict the fundamental principles of the Canadian law. The study finds that the current tax regime is only partially neutral because symmetry has not been achieved in respect to credit swaps entered between non-financial organizations. To enhance symmetry, the study proposes to adopt a mandatory mark-to-market basis of taxation of credit swaps for the non-financial organizations. Further, to make income tax treatment more certain, the study proposes that the CRA should issue a non-binding guidance on credit swaps.

Graduation date: 1990

This thesis is a collection of three essays in empirical studies on derivatives. In the first chapter, I investigate whether credit default swap spreads are affected by how the total risk is decomposed into the systematic risk and the idiosyncratic risk for a given level of the total risk. The risk composition is measured by the systematic risk proportion, defined as the proportion of the systematic variance in the total variance. I find that a firm’s systematic risk proportion has a negative and significant effect on its CDS spreads. Moreover, this empirical finding is robust to various alternative specifications and estimations. Therefore, the composition of the total risk is an important determinant of CDS spreads. In the second chapter, I estimate the illiquidity premium in the CDS spreads based on Jarrow’s illiquidity-modified Merton model using the transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation method. I find that the average model implied CDS illiquidity premium is about 15 basis points, accounting for 12% of the average level of the CDS spread. I further investigate how this parameter is affected by CDS liquidity measures such as the percentage bid-ask spread and the number of daily CDS spreads available in one month. I find that both liquidity measures are significant determinants of the model implied CDS illiquidity premium. In terms of relative importance, the bid-ask spread is more important than the number of daily CDS spreads statistically and economically. In the third chapter, I investigate the impact of the systematic risk on the volatility spread, i.e, the difference between the risk-neutral volatility and the physical volatility. I find that the systematic risk proportion of an underlying asset has a positive and significant impact on its volatility spread. The risk-neutral volatility in this study is measured with the increasingly popular approach known as the model-free risk-neutral volatility. The surprising positive systematic risk effect was first documented in Duan and Wei (2009) using the Black-Scholes implied volatility. I show that this effect is actually more prominent using the clearly better model-free risk-neutral volatility measure.