Driven by intense competition for market share, banks across the globe have allowed credit portfolios to become less diversified (across all dimensions  country, industry, sector and size) and have become willing to accept lesser quality assets on their books. As a result, even well capitalised banks could come under severe solvency pressure when global economic conditions turn. The banking industry has realised the need for more sophisticated loan origination and credit and capital management practices. To this end the reforms introduced by the Bank of International Settlement through the New Basel Accord (Basel II) aims to include exposure specific credit risk characteristics within the regulatory capital requirement framework, but is still not able to allow diversification and concentration risk to be fully recognised within the credit portfolio. In order to enhance earnings and liquidity profiles, active credit portfolio management is becoming a central part of capital management within the banking industry. If any risk mitigation or value enhancing activity is to be pursued, a credit portfolio manager must be able to identify the interdependencies between exposures in a portfolio and relate macroeconomic credit risk into tangible portfolio effects. The core principle for addressing practical questions in credit portfolio management lies in the ability to link the cyclical or systematic components of firm credit risk with the firm’s own idiosyncratic credit risk as well as the systematic credit risk component of every other exposure in the portfolio. Most structural credit portfolio management approaches have opted to represent the general economy or systematic risk by a single risk factor. The systematic component of all exposures, the process generating asset values and therefore the default thresholds are homogeneous across all firms. Indeed this Asymptotic Single Risk Factor (ASRF) model has been the foundation for Basel II. However the ASRF approach does not allow for enough flexibility when answering real life questions. Commercially available credit portfolio models have made an effort to address this issue by introducing more systematic factors in the asset-value-generating process. From a practitioner’s point of view, however, these models are often a “black-box” which allows little economic meaning or inference to be attributed to systematic factors. The methodology proposed by Pesaran, Schuermann, Treutler and Weiner (PSTW) (2006) has made a significant advance in credit risk modelling because it avoids the usage of proprietary balance sheet and distance to default data, instead focussing on credit ratings which are more freely available. Linking an adjusted structural default model to a structural global econometric (GVAR) model means that credit risk analysis and portfolio management can be done by using a conditional loss distribution estimation and simulation process. The GVAR model used in PSTW (2006) comprises a total of 25 countries and accounts for 80 per cent of world production, but does not include an African component. This thesis proposes a country-specific macroeconometric risk driver engine which is compatible with and could feed into the GVAR model and framework using vector error-correcting (VECM) techniques. This allows conditional loss estimation of a South African-specific credit portfolio and opens the door for credit portfolio modelling on a global scale because such a model can easily be linked into the GVAR model. By using firm-specific asset value functions, the outcomes from the macroeconometric vector error-correcting model (VECM) is translated into default probabilities and used to perform credit risk analysis and scenario analysis on a fictitious portfolio of corporate bank loans within the South African economy. These results can be used in credit portfolio management or standalone credit risk analysis which means that practical credit portfolio management and value enhancing applications can be performed. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Economics / unrestricted

Credit plays a significant role in agricultural growth, and it is understood that development of credit programmes will have a valuable impact on agricultural production earnings of smallholder farmers. It is also a strategic factor to poverty alleviation. In Gauteng, smallholder farmers source their loans commonly from informal moneylenders. This results in access to formal credit being at a low rate. Results show that low level of education, main occupation, group membership and household income are significant and have encouraging effects on access to credit financial services. The results also reveal that threats associated with borrowing are high interest rates and unavailability of credit financial institutions. These threats are the main challenges faced by smallholder farmers in this study. Financial institutions claim that farming is a risky business; the distance of getting to farmers makes the evaluation procedure challenging, and strict principles in the aspect of collateral is a main challenge in providing credit to smallholder farmers. It is recommended that accessibility to credit by smallholder farmers be developed by providing advanced financing schemes that will address problems of smallholder farmers who do not have security and thus reduce lengthy processing of documents and other requirements. In this manner, smallholder farmers may be stimulated to use formal credit and decrease their dependence on informal moneylenders, thus avoid higher interest rates, which will positively lead to increased smallholder farm production and household income.

This study was aimed at investigating the high level of consumer indebtedness in the South African retail market more specifically factors that contribute to consumer indebtedness. Recommendations on how to control the level of consumer indebtedness are also presented. Consumer indebtedness is a problem in many countries around the world and as witnessed during the 2008 global financial crisis, its impact can be disastrous. Not only does it create problems for the families but also for a country and even to the extent of the whole world. The literature conducted did not reveal a study undertaken to investigate factors that impact consumer indebtedness. Eight factors were identified and explored further in this study. Results were analysed in chapter three and outcomes presented in chapter four. The method used in conducting this study is the quantitative method. A questionnaire was developed based on the literature review conducted. The questionnaire was a five point Likert scale and was distributed to the respondents in the southern area of Tshwane Municipal district. In view of a manageable number of responses, results were analysed using an excel spreadsheet. Results were verified by an independent expert. From the eight factors that are identified, one (easy access to credit) was found to impact the high level of consumer indebtedness. Although there are other weaknesses, easy access to credit is found to be the main contributor. Recommendations on the findings are presented in chapter five of this study.

Organisations or individuals that lend money (banks and micro lenders) or that sell goods on credit (retailers) are classified as credit providers. The debtor enters into a contractual agreement with a credit provider, or creditor, with the obligation to repay the loan amount, fees and interest according to a predetermined schedule. The contractual agreement, also known as a credit agreement, is as a general rule very complex. Legislation protecting debtors in various ways is an international phenomenon. In South Africa, the National Credit Act, Act 34 of 2005 (NCA) was enacted in 2005. The NCA changed the playing field for credit providers participating in the South African consumer credit market to a great extent. Consumer lending is the sleeping giant of the financial sector. The key to successfully unlock this enormous market is the credit provider's ability to accurately assess the creditworthiness of a potential customer during the customer acquisition phase. The creditworthiness of the customer is related to the risk of default, i.e. a debtor's non-payment of debt in terms of the credit agreement. The risk of default is also known as credit risk. Real People Investment Holdings (Pty) Ltd (RPIH) classifies credit risk as the single largest risk the Group is exposed to. They recognise that the intelligent and responsible management of credit risk makes it the Group's largest profit driver. Credit risk scorecards are excellent decision aids during the customer acquisition phase. The characteristics and behaviour of merchants submitting credit applications to RPIH for assessment have a definite impact on the credit risk of the Group. The merchant plays a pivotal role in the debtor-creditor-supplier business model. The merchant influences the customer's sales experience and subsequent level of satisfaction with the transaction. A satisfied customer constitutes a lower level of credit risk for the creditor, in this case RPIH. The research is conducted with a positivistic paradigm. The cross-sectional study approach is used. The merchant is the unit of analysis. A sample of 77 merchants is selected from the population of 244 merchants who submitted credit applications to RPIH during the observation period. Questionnaires are used as the data collection method in this research project. The predictive ability of fourteen merchant related characteristics are demonstrated through this empirical study.

Materialism has long been a subject of interest to researchers. More negative than positive consequences have been reported from studies on the lifestyles of materialists. For example, increased consumer and credit card debt, shrinking saving rates, increased number of consumers filing for bankruptcy, lower levels of life satisfaction and the depletion of natural resources are reported to be emanating from the increasing levels of materialism in societies. It is thus important to investigate the factors that can be implicated for the growth of materialism. Most of the studies attempt to explain materialism at a given point in time in isolation of the events people have experienced in their early life or childhood. Realizing that this practice is a shortcoming in consumer research, there is a call that consumer behaviour, such as materialism, be studied as a function of past life experiences using the life-course approach. While few studies have applied this approach to understanding materialism, little is known about the psychological processes that link childhood family structure to materialism. It is against this background that this study used the life-course approach to study how childhood family structure affects materialism through psychological processes of perceived family resources (tangible and intangible), perceived stress from the disruptive family events, and money attitudes of Generation Y South Africans. The study also assessed the moderating role of money attitudes on the relationship between childhood family experiences and materialism. Money attitude dimensions of status, achievement, worry, security and budget were introduced to broaden the life-course study of materialism because they are reported to begin in childhood, to remain in adulthood and they function in the background of every behavioural intention and action. Generation Y (commonly reported to be born between 1977 and 1994) were the subject of this study, because the literature reviewed revealed that these emerging consumers are not only numerous (about 30 percent of South Africans are Generation Y), have considerable influence and spending power, but most have been raised in disrupted single-parent/income families. With reports from family sociologists on the outcomes of divorce and single-parenthood (for example, stress, inadequate family resources, and low self-esteem) questions were raised as to how these outcomes would affect Generation Y money attitudes and materialistic values. Ten hypotheses were formulated to empirically answer the research questions. Using quantitative methodologies based on the nature of the research questions and problems, data were collected through online questionnaire from 826 business undergraduate students from the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan and Western Cape Universities. University-aged respondents were appropriate for this study since they are ideally suited to remember their past family circumstances and must have already formed consumption habits, attitudes and values at their age. The first research problem was to evaluate how two of the life-course theoretical perspectives (i.e., family resources and stress) selected for this study would explain the materialistic values of Generation Y South Africans raised in non-intact (did not live with both biological parents before 18th birthday) and intact (lived with both biological parents before 18th birthday) family structures through the money attitudes adopted. The results showed that even though a significant difference in perceived family resources (both tangible and intangible) and stress was found between subjects raised in non-intact (or disrupted) and intact families, the difference in materialism as a whole was not significant. In terms of the three materialistic values of success, happiness and centrality, subjects raised in disrupted families significantly scored higher in the happiness dimension. For the money attitude dimensions of status, achievement, worry, budget and security they significantly scored higher in the worry money attitude. Results of the correlation analyses showed that perceived decrease in tangible (food, clothing and pocket money) family resources was a childhood factor that affected later worry money attitude to significantly and positively influence all of the three materialistic values. Perceived decreases in intangible family resources (for example, love and emotional support) negatively affected the symbolic money attitudes of status and worry, which in turn, positively affected only the happiness dimension of materialism. Perceived increase in stress positively affected all of the symbolic money attitudes of status, worry and achievement. These, in turn, positively influenced only the success and happiness materialistic values. The second research problem was based on an assessment of the moderating role of money attitudes on the childhood family experiences to materialism relationship. Using hierarchical regression analyses, it was found that only the achievement and worry money attitude dimensions moderated the family resources to materialism relationship. This means that when subjects hold higher worry and achievement money attitudes, an increase in family resources (tangible and intangible) will have less effect in reducing materialistic tendencies. For the stress to materialism relationship, only the worry money attitude dimension had a moderating effect, meaning that when higher worry money attitude is held, an increase in stress from family disruptions would have a greater effect in increasing materialistic tendencies. None of the five money attitude dimensions did, however, moderate the childhood family structure to materialism relationship. The results of this study do not only have theoretical implications, but also provide valuable information to consumer-interest groups, banks and retailers, especially in terms of the money attitudes of Generation Y consumers in South Africa.

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Social welfare attitudes and policies are rooted in philosophical approaches. The attitudes and policies of political parties to social welfare are to be sought in the political philosophies of these parties. It has been the purpose of this thesis to explore the political philosophy of the Social Credit League and Government of British Columbia in order to ascertain how this is reflected in matters of social welfare. The theoretical father of Social Credit was Major Douglas of England. His economic and monetary theories were formulated in the 1920s. In 1935 these theories found an opportunity of being put to the test when, under the leadership of Premier Aberhart, the Social Credit Party came to power in Alberta. In British Columbia Social Credit was elected to power in 1952 and has since held the reigns of power continuously. An exploration of the welfare policies of the British Columbia Social Credit Party required an investigation of the genesis of this movement. Thus it was necessary to delve into the literature of and about Major Douglas. The development of the Social Credit movement of Alberta and a study of its relationship to the economic theories on which it was created proved to be a helpful approach in understanding thinking on social welfare issues. Finally, this thesis turns to the scene in British Columbia and traces the rise to power of the Social Credit party. Power is expressed in policy. Thus it was necessary to focus on the possible policy-making sources. The British Columbia Social Credit League represents one such source. The other is, of course, the government itself. Prom the accumulated evidence there emerges a picture of Social Credit social welfare philosophy. Douglas placed emphasis on the provision of a basic dividend. He maintained that the problems confronting people stemmed from their inability to purchase the product of an ever-growing ability to produce. Douglas argued that if his economic theory was linked to the growing leisure imposed by the industrial system, then the welfare of the individual would be assured. Aberhart's understanding of the Douglas theory appears to be confused. A strong religious component is evident in the Aberhart approach. Individualism and self-reliance, these are the ingredients of the Aberhart thesis. Coupled with this is to be found a concern for the blind, the widowed and the sick. The biblical injunction is preserved both in word and content so that social welfare might well be said to be understood in just this way. Aberhart's attempt to undertake elements of Douglas' ideas were frustrated and so the testing ground for this economic theory was tested in court rather than in practice. In British Columbia we note that the Social Credit League demonstrates adherance both to the Douglas theory and the religious conviction of Aberhart. Both the League and the Government are strong adherants of the free enterprise system. Both emphasise the virtue of work and stress the idea of self reliance. While important segments of the League advocate monetary reform a la Douglas, the Government has avoided this issue. The evidence shows that the Social Credit movement makes a distinction between those who are worthy of help and those who are not. This, to a large extent, creates the base upon which social welfare policy is created. At a governmental level the emphasis is placed on economic stimulation, vocational training and rehabilitation. / Arts, Faculty of / Social Work, School of / Shillington, John David; Steidle, Utho Charles; Thomlison, Raymond John / Graduate

Historians and political scientists have explained the pre-eminence of Social Credit in British Columbia during the last half of this century as an institutionalized protest against the seeming inactivity of partisan governments and as a reaction to the strength of the social democratic element in the province's political culture. This thesis examines the period from 1932 up to and including the BC Social Credit movement's electoral breakthrough in 1952 and suggests that economic and political conditions during that time affected the way that Social Crediters organized and changed the focus of Social Credit ideology in BC from monetary reform to a call for good government and conservative values. It also suggests that some previous conclusions about BC's Social Credit movement - that it was an outgrowth of Alberta Social Credit, that it was a populist organization, that it was too small to be intellectually significant - should be modified in the light of new evidence. This thesis should serve as a starting point for more specialized studies of the Social Credit movement in British Columbia. / Arts, Faculty of / History, Department of / Graduate

In Mexico, a primary agent for social change continues to be agrarian reform. However this is no longer restricted to the reformation of outdated, pre-Revolution land tenure systems. Today, it is necessary to formulate effective and feasible agrarian policies which will help to meet Mexico's current needs for financial, technological and social development and which will solve problems created by the new land tenure structure. It is thus that the Mexican government has launched various new programmes which are intended to facilitate and enhance the development of the ejido system of land tenure within the country. The use of the ejido as a means of distributing and holding lands has had problematical success. Because peasants' rights to ejido lands are usufructuary, they have no title to the land. As a result, the land cannot be used as collateral for securing loans for agricultural production from private lending institutions. To aid the ejidatarios, the government has established specific national credit banks whose function it is to lend money to groups of peasants who in turn assume a collective responsibility for the debt incurred. This study examines credit groups in two colonies along the Candelaria River, Campeche, Mexico, to determine the impacts of these groups on agricultural landscapes in the colonies. As somewhat of a control, in order that a valid basis for comparison might be established, a third community, possessing a similar physical environment and organizational framework, but lacking credit groups, was also studied. The intent of the study is to investigate how the function of credit groups affects land area cultivated, methods of agriculture, types of crops grown, and the socio-economic well-being of the communities in the field area. In order to undertake the study, it was first deemed necessary to review the evolution of land tenure systems in Mexico with a view towards understanding the framework within which the Mexican peasant is intended to carry out his agricultural activities. Three critical social factors were then identified as affecting the unity and cohesion found in the credit groups, and ultimately within the communities themselves. These factors were the background of group and community members, allegiance to the group or community, and the leadership quality found in the field area. Interviews were then carried out, with the majority of people interviewed fitting into two broad categories, either peasants who were eligible to receive or in fact were receiving agricultural credit, or peasants who were ineligible to receive this aid. Additional information regarding the characteristics of the field area and the operation of the credit groups was obtained from credit banks serving the area, from the Department of Agrarian Affairs and Colonization, the Centre of Agrarian Studies, and other relevant sources. The study indicates the agricultural methods and types of crops grown in the field area are directly affected by the credit groups and result in agricultural landscapes which bear a strikingly different aspect from those effected by peasants who do not benefit from credit aid. Nevertheless, this is a superficial difference. The land area cultivated and, perhaps more important, the economic well-being of those who receive credit aid versus those who do not receive such aid, does not appear to differ significantly. This similarity in these latter two variables is shown to be attributable in part to the diverse and, in some cases, incompatible backgrounds of some residents of the field area, to varying degrees of allegiance and commitment to the credit groups and communities studied, and to differing qualities of leadership within the groups and communities. Equally important was the finding that the ejido system of land tenure was unacceptable to the colonists who were interviewed In light of the impact of the social factors on the field area, and the apparent disteem for the actual framework within which the residents of the colonies exist, the validity of colonization schemes such as that along the Candelaria becomes questionable. Consequently, implications for changes in the current ejido system of land tenure are discussed in the final chapter of the study. If the system itself is not abandoned, as it might well be modifications to it are certainly imperative. / Arts, Faculty of / Geography, Department of / Graduate