We provide empirical evidence of the TED spread as a risk factor in the cross-section of stock returns. Portfolios with high sensitivities to the TED spread have high average risk-adjusted returns. The pricing of TED spread risk is especially strong among small caps. TED spread is a usual measure of funding difficulties in interbank markets and our results are consistent with the Margin-CAPM model of Garleanu and Pedersen (2011). / Esta dissertação apresenta evidência empírica da TED Spread como um fator de risco na cross-section dos retornos de ações. Portfólios com elevada sensibilidade à TED Spread possuem elevados retornos médios ajustados para outros fatores de risco. O apreçamento do risco de TED Spread é especialmente forte entre small caps. TED Spread é uma medida usual de dificuldades de financiamento em mercados interbancários e o resultado obtido é consistente com o modelo Margin-CAPM de Gârleanu and Pedersen (2011).

O mercado de crédito de longo prazo, abordado aqui através dos contratos de debênture, vem se fortalecendo no Brasil após o início do Plano Real, onde a estabilização da economia permitiu que suas cláusulas contratuais migrassem para o controle de risco relativo à firma frente a anterior preocupação com o ambiente econômico conturbado, conforme exposto em Silva e Leal (2008). Assim, este trabalho tenta prever a variável Distante to Default (DD) apresentada em Crosbie e Bohn (2003) através da estrutura proposta por Collin-Dufresne e Goldstein (2001). Para o quartil mais líquido da amostra, o erro percentual médio (EPM) para um horizonte de previsão de cinco anos é de 52%, e de 21% quando considerada a previsão perfeita da volatilidade. O EPM mostra-se muito sensível à liquidez das empresas em bolsa. / The long-term credit market, addressed here through debenture contracts, has gained strength in Brazil after the start of the Real Plan, where stabilization of the economy has allowed its contractual covenants migrate to the firm's risk control in spite of the previous troubled economic environment, outlined in Silva e Leal (2008). Then, this work tries to forecast the Distance to Default variable (DD) from Crosbie e Bohn (2003) through the proposed structure by Collin- Dufresne e Goldstein (2001). For the sample's most liquid quartile, the mean percentage error (MPE) for a forecast horizon of five years is 52%, and 21% when considering perfect volatility forecast. The MPE is very sensitive to firm's market liquidity.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-12T15:05:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 arquivo1182_1.pdf: 1252336 bytes, checksum: f525fed8d87638ae39fd882853bce5ca (MD5) license.txt: 1748 bytes, checksum: 8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Esta dissertação propôs o estudo da viabilidade da utilização de modelos de credit scoring em uma instituição educacional de ensino médio e fundamental, atuante na rede privada na cidade do Recife PE. A utilização deste tipo de modelagem é bastante difundida em instituições financeiras, no entanto sua prática no segmento de serviços apresenta-se em estágio embrionário, onde seus benefícios ainda são pouco conhecidos. A utilização de modelos como mecanismos de apoio ao gerenciamento de serviços educacionais assume importante relevância, pois este segmento tem sido severamente penalizado com elevados índices de inadimplência, aliado a uma legislação desfavorável quanto a cobrança de débitos vencidos. No desenvolvimento dos modelos de credit scoring foram utilizados as técnicas de análise discriminante, regressão logística e rede neural artificial, onde sua viabilidade foi avaliada ao se comparar a performance da previsão dos modelos com o percentual de acertos obtido pelo critério de chances. Os resultados demonstram que a análise discriminante obteve o melhor desempenho na previsão do grupo dos inadimplentes, com 80% de acerto. Por outro lado, os modelos baseados na regressão logística e rede neural artificial alcançaram o mais alto nível de acerto no grupo dos adimplentes, ambos com 93,48%. Sendo assim a modelagem de credit scoring apresentou-se como um instrumento de gestão de risco viável para a instituição de educação pesquisada

M.Com. (Business Management) / The provision of trade credit in the course of business is one of the accepted norms of most business operations providing higher sales volumes, but also, a certain degree of risk. As part of the credit manager's responsibilities he/she must manage the credit department in such a way as to limit the extent of the inherent risk associated with trade credit thereby maximising the marginal profit flowing from credit transactions. Traditional management strategies and techniques do not take into consideration the level of the country's economic activity, to their peril. From the retail trader (Communicomp) example, it is clear that effective credit management procedures and well trained personnel are crucial to the management of trade credit. It is also noted that during a stage of lower economic activity the risks associated with the provision of trade credit are higher, and more likely to realise a financial loss whilst impacting negatively on cash flow. It is therefore appropriate that credit managers, should in future, adopt a management style which takes into consideration the state of the country's economic activity. This would ensure that the risks associated with providing trade credit is kept within acceptable limits.

Ingeniera Civil Industrial / En Chile, durante los últimos años, ha habido un aumento en la tasa de evasión de impuestos, observándose que, en particular para el IVA esta cifra ha crecido un 8,5% con respecto el año 2007. Cada punto porcentual se traduce en una pérdida de recaudación de 350 millones de dólares, por lo que se hace necesario el diseño de un plan que revierta este efecto. La presente memoria consiste en el desarrollo de un modelo estadístico que permita predecir el default en la declaración y pago de IVA para los contribuyentes de Micro y Pequeña empresa. Teniendo como resultado la detección de las variables que más influyen en esta conducta, la probabilidad de default de cada contribuyente para el período tributario julio 2013 y la identificación del porcentaje de default según zona geográfica. La metodología de trabajo contempla las etapas de entendimiento del negocio, extracción de la información, preparación de datos, modelamiento y finalmente, la interpretación de los resultados. Dada la inexistencia de trabajos publicados en materia de default tributario, el sustento teórico de esta investigación se basa en el credit scoring, técnica utilizada en la industria bancaria. Se toma como fuente de información el Data Warehouse del SII, con el que se construyen 55 variables que reflejan características demográficas, índices de liquidez, movimientos de caja, comportamiento y tamaño del negocio. Se prueban tres algoritmos de clasificación: árboles de decisión, regresión logística y redes neuronales. Se elige como modelo definitivo el de regresión logística, dada su clara interpretabilidad y buena capacidad de predicción, que alcanza una precisión global de 68,81%, especificidad de 67,29% y sensibilidad de 68,88%, cumpliendo con el objetivo inicial de obtener el mejor modelo predictivo balanceado posible. Respecto de las variables, los resultados indican que las de mayor relevancia se relacionan con el historial de cumplimiento del F29, dónde se presenta una clara segmentación de los contribuyentes en tres tipos de conducta. Respecto de la identificación por zona geográfica, se aprecia el mayor porcentaje de default para la zona del norte grande del país, y el menor para la Región de Magallanes y la zona Centro y Oriente de la Región Metropolitana. Se concluye que la presencia de errores en la información proporcionada por los contribuyentes, así como la cantidad de campos nulos encontrados, hace que aún no se cuente con una base de datos óptima para aplicar la técnica de credit scoring. El SII se encuentra trabajando en esta línea, lo que permitirá en un futuro obtener mejores resultados. Como recomendación final se propone utilizar las predicciones obtenidas para diseñar un plan de medidas preventivas, así como también evaluar el desarrollo de un modelo de alta precisión y baja especificidad que se enfoque en la detección de los defaulters más críticos.

Cette thèse sur travaux empiriques en quatre articles s’intéresse aux déterminants de risque de défaut souverain. Le premier chapitre résume l’état de l’art du risque de défaut souverain et trois principales approches des déterminants du risque de défaut souverain: le modèle structurel, le modèle dynamique stochastique et les modèles économétriques. Le deuxième chapitre étudie la probabilité de défaut de l’Argentine (2002) en utilisant un modèle structurel proposé par Gray and Malone 2008. Le troisième chapitre propose un modèle stochastique afin de calculer le spread du crédit souverain journalier. Les deux derniers chapitres économétriques déterminent deux proxies du risque de défaut souverain: Sovereign CDS spread et Emerging Market Bond Index Plus (EMBI+). Le quatrième chapitre essaye de déterminer le sovereign CDS spread à longterme et court-terme en utilisant trois estimations: Pooled Mean Group, Mean Group et Dynamic Fixed Effect. Dans le dernier chapitre, on applique un modèle non-linéaire asymétrique Autorégressif à retards échelonnés pour étudier l’effet d’asymétrie à longterme de compte courant sur l’EMBI+ y compris les variables explicatives telles que la dette extérieure et les réserves internationales pour deux pays émergents: la Turquie et le Brésil. / This thesis on empirical results in four articles focused on the determinants of the sovereign default risk. The first chapter summarizes the state of the art of sovereign default risk and the three main approaches of determinants of sovereign default risk: the structure model, the dynamic stochastic model and the econometric models. The second chapter studies the default probability in Argentina (2002) by using a structural model proposed by Gray and Malone 2008. The third chapter provides a stochastic model to calculate the daily sovereign credit spread. Last two econometric chapters determine two sovereign default risk proxies: Sovereign CDS spread and Emerging Market Bond Index Plus. The fourth chapter focuses on the sovereign CDS spread in long-run and short-run by using three estimations of Pooled Mean Group, Mean Group and Dynamic Fixed Effect. The last chapter applies a nonliear Autoregressive Distributed Lag asymmetry model to study the long-run asymmetric effect of the current account to the EMBI+ including the explanatory variables such as the external debt and international reserves for the two typical emerging countries Turkey and Brazil.

M.Comm. (Financial Management) / If the creditworthiness of applicants for overdraft facilities is assessed inaccurately, future defaults on repayment commitments may threaten the cash flow and profitability of the bank issuing the credit. The main purpose of this study is to assess how reliable the inputs used by one large South African bank to determine the creditworthiness of individual clients applying for overdraft facilities on personal current accounts are in predicting the future behaviour of the client. The findings of this study should inform the bank in question (and other credit providers) of the extent to which the original application-based score (OABS), is an accurate predictor of a client's future behaviour after the account is opened. It will also help them to identify which of those variables are the best predictors, and so reduce the risk of default. A quantitative research methodology is employed, using secondary data on individual applications processed at one large South African banking institution between July 2006 and July 2009. The data was used to establish whether any (and which) of the input variables captured by the bank when the client originally applies for credit, are strongly associated with the behavioural risk indicator (BRI) assigned to them after the first six months (BRI 1) and twelve months (BRI 2) after being granted a loan, respectively. The findings of this study revealed that non-financial characteristics (biographical and demographic information) are not considered in the OABS; while finance-related characteristics (segment, income bands, overdraft taken up category and overdraft taken up as a percentage of gross income categories) are. The study found that there is also an association between the OABS and the behavioural scores (BRI 1 and BRI 2) allocated thereafter. In particular, the number of days the client went into excess during the initial six and subsequent six months is strongly associated with the BRI 1 and BRI 2 scores. This finding implies that, despite the utilisation of non-financial measures to determine creditworthiness scores, a client’s current behaviour is still the best predictor of future behaviour. The study concluded that, despite its low predictive power, the OABS is, however, associated with, and to a certain extent predicts, the future behaviour of clients.

The aim of the thesis Credit registers and their usage is to evaluate the impact of credit registers usage in banking sector. The first part of the thesis focuses on description of credit registers, their creation and functioning at the level of the European Union. The second part describes and compares credit registers in the Czech Republic. The last part analyses the influence of negative information obtained from credit registers on the approval process and the use of registers when offering credit products to clients. In this part the positive influence of the use of credit registers in the banking sector is proved. The method of description and descriptive analysis is used in the thesis.

The global over-the-counter derivatives market reached a staggering 14.5 trillion US dollars in gross market value at the end of December 2007. Although OTC derivatives are extremely useful and versatile in transferring risks, it appears to be a double-edged sword. For every derivative transaction concluded in the OTC market, there are two parties involved – each of which is exposed to the other defaulting on the agreed terms and conditions of the contract. Counterparty credit risk is defined as the loss that will be incurred in the event that a counterparty fails to honour its financial obligations. This dissertation provides an overview of counterparty credit risk measurement from a theoretical point of view and puts an emphasis on the demonstration of the current solutions used in practice to address this problem. The author applies a bottom up approach to the problem by defining counterparty credit risk exposure on a contract (single-trade) level and expands this definition on a step-by-step basis to incorporate portfolio effects, such as correlation among underlying market variables as well as credit risk mitigation techniques, such as netting and collateral agreements, in measuring counterparty credit risk exposure on a counterparty level. The author also discusses related concepts which impact counterparty credit risk such as wrong-way risk and proposes an enhancement to the framework introduced by Finger (2000) for incorporating wrong-way risk into existing measures of counterparty credit risk exposure. Finger‟s framework is enhanced by the introduction of a structural model approach which can be used in establishing a functional and intuitive relationship between the probability of default of the counterparty and the underlying market variable to the derivative contract under consideration. This approach is also applied to a typical South African situation through the use of Monte Carlo simulation. The topic of counterparty credit risk modelling is a very relevant topic in modern finance, especially since the advent of Basel 2 which this dissertation also touches on in terms of the applications of counterparty credit risk modelling and how this relates to the minimum regulatory capital requirements set by bank regulators. Copyright / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2009. / Mathematics and Applied Mathematics / unrestricted

In this dissertation we study models for the valuation of portfolios of credit risky securities and collateralised debt obligations. We start with models for single security of the reduced form type and investigate means of extending these to the portfolio level concentrating on default dependence between obligors. The Gaussian copula model has become a market standard and we study how the model deals with dependence between portfolio constituents. We implement the model and confirm analytical formulae for certain risk measures. Simplifying assumptions made eases implementation of this model but causes inconsistencies with observed market prices. Evidence of this is the observed correlation smile, highlighted by the recent global credit crises. This has caused researchers to look to extensions of the model to better fit current market pricing. We study a number of these extensions and compare the credit losses for various tranches to those under the standard model. A number of these extensions are able to replicate observed prices by accounting for some observed feature overlooked by the standard model. Of these the most promising appear to be those having default and recovery rates negatively correlated. Various empirical studies have found this to hold true. Another promising advancement is in the area of stochastic correlation. The main problems with such extensions is that no single one has been adopted as standard while all require more sophisticated numerical implementation than the convenient recursive algorithm available for the standard model. Even if such problems are overcome questions still remain. No current usable model is able to provide simultaneously both a term structure of credit spreads for the portfolio and individual constituents. This prevents the valuation of the next generation of credit products. An answer may well be beyond capabilities of the now familiar copula framework which has served the market for the last decade. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Mathematics and Applied Mathematics / unrestricted