This paper verifies the positive relationship between consumer credit and the four categories of consumption spending in South Africa. The study utilised data sourced from the South African Reserve Bank for the period 1975-2011. The study was conducted via regression analysis to determine the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. A significant positive relationship was found between the independent variable household debt and the four categories of consumption. The results are statistically significant for non-durable and durable goods and although significant for services and semi-durable goods, the relationship is less strong in these two instances. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

No abstract available / Dissertation (LLM)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Mercantile Law / unrestricted

TESIS PARA OPTAR AL GRADO DE MAGÍSTER EN FINANZAS / Esta investigación se evalúa si los mercados de CDS (Credit Default Swap) de países emergentes son capaces de anticipar cambios en el rating de la deuda soberana. Se utiliza el rating soberano asignado por parte de las tres grandes agencias clasificadoras de riesgo y los Credit Default Swap soberano a 10 años, para una muestra compuesta por 27 países emergentes. Se utilizaron datos de frecuencia mensual para el periodo comprendido entre septiembre de 2008 y enero de 2018, en el cual se incluyen dos crisis financieras internacionales (crisis subprime y la amenaza de contagio de la crisis de deuda soberana de europa). El modelo econométrico consiste en una estimación en dos fases. En la primera, se estima a través de un modelo de regresión lineal de corte transversal el desalineamiento del spread de CDS de un país con respecto a sus pares de igual clasificación. En la segunda, se utiliza esta innovadora variable para estimar a través de un modelo probit con datos de panel la probabilidad de cambio de rating internalizada por el mercado de CDS. Se analiza de manera independiente los eventos de crédito que mejoran el rating (upgrade) y los que lo rebajan (downgrade). Se comprueba que, incluso utilizando diferentes supuestos para la construcción de las variables, los CDS son un instrumento financiero capaz de entregar información relevante para predecir cambios en el rating soberano. Además, mediante un conjunto de pruebas de robustez, se entrega sustento para dos principales conclusiones. Primero, que el mercado de CDS asignaría una mayor probabilidad de cambio de rating (tanto para downgrade como upgrade) a los países de peor clasificación crediticia y, más aún, a aquel grupo de países con grado especulativo. Segundo, los resultados muestran que a medida que se acerca la fecha del evento, el mercado contaría con mayor información para predecir cambios de rating, lo cual se podría esperar intuitivamente. Esta investigación realiza un aporte a la literatura previa tanto en el modelo implementado como su capacidad predictiva de cambios de rating, la cual se mantiene incluso frente a diferentes especificaciones de las variables explicativa relevantes y cambios en los supuestos utilizados.

In recent years many works employed the topic of the estimation of the asset value correlation from the portfolio of debtors and their properties. The results vary depending on the methods used or the data sets, on which the model was applied. The Master Thesis describes the methods of estimation of the asset value correlation from 5-year default performance of small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) debtors of Komercni Banka. Each method is firstly described in detail and then applied. Estimations of the asset value correlation are performed in rating and industrial homogeneous group. The conclusion contains a comparison of resulting capital with a former Basel correlation and the capital when our estimations of the asset correlation are used as a parameters. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

This dissertation consists on three essays, inquiring about the usefulness of disaggregated data and cross-sectional causal effects to improve our understanding of traditional questions in macroeconomics, both for economic fluctuations and long-run outcomes. In Chapter 1, I explore whether the large body of cross-sectional evidence that established the adverse effects of cuts in the supply of bank lending on firm outcomes and the allocation of credit is relevant at the aggregate level. I estimate this aggregate effect using a new general equilibrium model that incorporates multibank firms, relationship banking, endogenous credit dependence, and bank market power. I use a set of cross-sectional patterns to estimate the key structural parameters of the model. The effect of an aggregate lending cut on aggregate output is large: a 1 percent decline in aggregate bank lending supply reduces aggregate output by 0.2 percent. The structure of labor and credit markets is important in reaching this answer. Under an alternative parametrization of the model that ignores input market frictions, the response of aggregate output is three times smaller. Under my preferred parametrization, the cross-sectional effects survive aggregation in general equilibrium. Instead, with frictionless input markets the cross-sectional patterns over-estimate the aggregate response by a factor of five. In Chapter 2, written with Sergio Ocampo, we study how the efficacy of development policies---such as job-guarantee programs, unemployment insurance, and micro-finance---depends on the prevalence of low-earning self-employed individuals. To this end, we develop a new general equilibrium occupational choice model that is consistent with the behavior and composition of self-employment. Our model differs from previous work by allowing unemployment risk to shape the selection of agents into self-employment. Models that rely only on financial frictions are at odds with crucial features of self-employment in developing economies---in particular, the concentration of self-employed agents among the lowest earners in the economy, and their willingness to accept salaried jobs when offered to them. These features support the prevalence of subsistence entrepreneurs in developing economies, who play a critical role in shaping policy responses. Their willingness to accept jobs at market wages leads to a muted response of wages to labor demand shocks, such as the implementation of a job-guarantee program. In addition, offering small unemployment benefits reduces subsistence entrepreneurship, thereby increasing productivity and output. In contrast, micro-finance exacerbates subsistence entrepreneurship, thereby reducing productivity. Finally, in chapter 3, with Andres Drenik and Pablo Ottonello, we study the importance of information frictions in asset markets at the aggregate level. We develop a methodology to identify the extent of information frictions based on a broad class of models of trade in asset markets, which predict that these frictions affect the relationship between listed prices and selling probabilities. We apply our methodology to physical capital markets data, using a unique dataset on a panel of nonresidential structures listed for trade. We show that the patterns of prices and duration are consistent with the presence of asymmetric information. On the one hand, capital units that are more expensive because of their observable characteristics tend to have lower duration, as predicted by models of trading under a full information model. On the other hand, capital units that are expensive beyond their observable characteristics tend to have a longer duration, as predicted by models of trading under asymmetric information. Combining model and data, we estimate that asymmetric information can explain 21% of the +30% dispersion in price differences of units with similar observed characteristics. We quantify the effects of information frictions on allocations, prices, and liquidity, and show that the estimated degree of information frictions can to lead to 15% lower output due to low trading probabilities of high-quality capital.

The objective of this paper is to offer a methodology for sizing credit-sensitive Asset Backed Securities (ABS) used in the prime mortgage lending sector in the U.S. and then to evaluate their relative performance. Using a multi-factor Monte Carlo simulation framework, we perform a four-step analysis. First, we estimate scenario-specific credit losses from a given mortgage pool. We then structure the pool into a 6-pack subordination structure based on statistically-determined stress economic scenarios. Next, we estimate performance indicators of the tranches to compare risk-adjusted returns. Finally, we report our results in terms of tranche-specific risk-adjusted returns. The results indicate that the middle tranches of ABS, e.g., BBB and BB, possess the lowest risk-adjusted returns. We also find and explain a cliff phenomenon in the tranche-level principal cash flows.

The objective of this paper is to offer a methodology for sizing credit-sensitive Asset Backed Securities (ABS) used in the prime mortgage lending sector in the U.S. and then to evaluate their relative performance. Using a multi-factor Monte Carlo simulation framework, we perform a four-step analysis. First, we estimate scenario-specific credit losses from a given mortgage pool. We then structure the pool into a 6-pack subordination structure based on statistically-determined stress economic scenarios. Next, we estimate performance indicators of the tranches to compare risk-adjusted returns. Finally, we report our results in terms of tranche-specific risk-adjusted returns. The results indicate that the middle tranches of ABS, e.g., BBB and BB, possess the lowest risk-adjusted returns. We also find and explain a cliff phenomenon in the tranche-level principal cash flows.

This analysis will characterize the informal sector in Managua, Nicaragua as small-scale units engaged in the production and distribution of goods and services whose primary objective is to generate employment for the participants rather than maximize their profits. Managua's informal sector employs forty-eight percent of the total employed urban population and plays an important role in the development of the country. Historically, informal sector growth has been constrained by the inaccessibility of credit. However in recent years, credit programs that focus on micro-enterprise lending have been established and are significantly stimulating informal sector activities. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of micro-enterprise credit as a tool for promoting socio-economic development for informal-sector participants. Its principal findings are that micro-enterprise credit promotes economic development by generating income and employment, increasing borrower assets, and facilitating expansion of micro-business enterprises. Secondly, micro-enterprise credit promotes social development by empowering females in the home and business, benefits to children, and improving borrowers' personal well being. / Master of Urban and Regional Planning

This study investigated the validity of excusing students from composition courses based upon an objective examination. Utah State University (USU) students who had taken freshman composition courses during the 1970-71 school year when these courses were required of all entering freshman students were divided into two groups: one group was composed of those who had received an "A" or "B" for three freshman composition courses, while the other group had received a- "C" or "D" for the same courses. USU students who had been excused from taking freshman composition courses based on the CLEP General Examination in English Composition (CLEP) during the 1971-72 school year when all entering freshman students were required to take the C LEP were divided into two groups: one group had scored above 449 on the CLEP and the other group had scored from 390-449. In addition, students who had been excused from the same composition requirement based on a score above 2 on the Advanced Placement Test in English Composition (AP) were included in the study. A random sample of 25 from each of the above groups participated in the study. All subjects completed an essay test (CLEP Subject Examination in English Composition--Essay Section) and an objective test (CLEP Subject Examination--Objective Section). The essay test was rated independently by three members of the USU English Department, and an inter-rater reliability coefficient of . 83 was obtained using analysis of variance techniques. Results showed that on the bases of both the essay test and the objective test there was no significant difference in the writing ability of the two groups of students who had completed freshman composition courses and the two groups of students who had been excused from freshman composition courses based on the C LEP. On the bases of both of these tests, the students who scored above 2 on the AP test scored above all other groups in the study; the students who scored above 449 on the CLEP scored second to the AP students and very much like the students who had received an average of "A" or "B" in freshman composition courses; the students who scored 390-449 and those who received a "C" or "D" in composition courses received virtually identical scores on the essay and objective tests. Based on multiple regression analysis, the objective test was found to be a much better predictor of freshman English grades than the essay test. In addition, the essay test was found to add little to the prediction of freshman composition grades provided by the objective test alone. Based on the findings of the study, it was concluded that the C LEP had been accurately applied at USU. Based upon the assumption that freshman composition grades are a valid measure of writing ability, it was also concluded that the objective test used in the study was a more valid measure of writing ability than the essay test, and further concluded that the objective test could predict writing ability quite accurately independent of the essay test. In consideration of the previous conclusions, it was concluded that a strictly objective test can validly be used to excuse students from freshman composition courses.

Consumer loan Abstract This diploma thesis deals with the topic of consumer loans, specifically with the regulation of contracts in which a consumer loan is arranged, contained in the Consumer Credit Act, with aim to provide analysis of such regulation, identify its deficiencies and provide suggestions for eliminating these deficiencies. The first chapter deals with basic terms, the definition of which is necessary for further dealing with the issue of consumer loans. The chapter therefore contains definitions of terms credit, consumer, and consumer loan. Following the definition of these terms, this chapter also deals with credit contract, loan contract, consumer protection and P2P consumer loans. The second chapter deals with the special legal regulation of consumer loans represented by the CCD Directive, the MCD Directive and the Consumer Credit Act which transposes the said Directives. There is also mentioned the now repealed Directive 87/102/EEC and Act No. 321/2001 Coll., which transposed said Directive. The third chapter, together with the fourth chapter, represents the core of the whole thesis, when the third chapter contains an analysis of the regulation of the loan credit agreement. However, it does not focus only on Part Seven of the Consumer Credit Act, but also on the process of concluding a...