<p>Agriculture has been the backbone of the economy in Nigeria providing employment and source of livelihood for the increasing population and accounting for over half of the GDP of the Nigeria economy at independence in 1960. However, the role it plays in the regional and economic development of the country has diminished over the years due to the dominant role of the crude oil sector in the economy. With the increasing food demand in Nigeria, the country has available input natural resources and potential for increasing the volume of crop production towards meeting the food and nutritional requirement of the rapidly increasing population and guarantee food security in the country. The study was undertaken to analyse the effect of different factors and policies on the changes in trend of crop production and investigate the possible effect of water resources development on increased volume of agricultural crop production in Nigeria.</p><p>The study revealed that there are opportunities for water resources development in the country through irrigation to supplement the water requirements and needs of farmers for agricultural production activities in many areas in the semi-arid and arid regions. Available data shows that there are available land and water resources that could be developed to support the production of food and agricultural development with opportunity for increased productivity.</p><p>However, while the water resources are unevenly distributed in the country, there is need for the efficient use and management of the available water resources and increasing the productive use especially in the northern region of the country where there is increasing incidence of drought and competing need for water among the different sectors of the economy. The study also made possible recommendations for policy formulation to address the current problems facing the agricultural sector in conjunction with the requirement for the development of the water resources.</p>

In petroleum production systems, hydrate morphology is observed to be influenced by the crude oil composition. This work is aimed at identifying which crude oil compositional parameters that need to be determined in order to evaluate natural anti-agglomerating properties of crude oils, i.e. the critical compositional descriptors. The compositional features of 22 crude oils have been studied, and multivariate data analysis has been used to investigate the possibility for correlations between several crude oil properties. The results show that biodegradation together with a relatively large amount of acids are characteristic for non-plugging crude oils, while excess of basic compounds is characteristic for plugging crude oils. The multivariate data analysis shows a division of the nonbiodegraded oils, which are all plugging, and the biodegraded oils. In addition, the biodegraded oils seem to be divided into two groups, one with plugging oils and one with mostly non-plugging oils. The results show that the wettability can be predicted from the variables biodegradation level, density, asphaltene content and TAN.

Aquatic ecosystems are still being polluted with crude oil and other technogenic contaminants. In order to evaluate genotoxic and cytotoxic impact of this pollutants, micronucleus test and analysis of the other nuclear abnormalities is rather frequently being used. The main objective of the study is assessment of genotoxicity and cytotoxicity effects in different fish and bivalves exposed to the crude oil and other technogenic contaminants discharged from the several oil platforms (Statfjord B, Oseberg C, Minija). Environmental genotoxicity and cytotoxicity was evaluated by measuring the frequencies of micronuclei and other nuclear abnormalities in cells of mussels and fish caged in different oil platforms (Ekofisk, Statfjord B) field zones in situ. The study results provide new information about environmental geno-cytotoxicity in oil platforms field zones. The peculiarities of genotoxicity and cytotoxicity in fish and mussels after experimental treatment with crude oil from the North Sea oil platforms and Minija well in Lithuania and other technogenic contaminants (produced water, mixtures of PAHs, alkylphenols and heavy metals) were assessed. There were determined time-tissue-species-concentration-related relationships in induction of nuclear abnormalities in studied fish and mussels. The study results revealed usefulness of genotoxicity endpoints, as well as cytotoxicity endpoints for the evaluation of damage, caused by the contamination discharged from the marine oil... [to full text] / Į vandens ekosistemas patenka dideli kiekiai žaliavinės naftos bei naftos išgavimo technologinių procesų metu susidarančių teršalų. Šiame darbe analizuotas Šiaurės jūroje veikiančių naftos platformų (Statfjord B, Oseberg C), Barenco jūroje išgaunamos arktinės bei Lietuvoje esančio Minijos naftos gręžinio žaliavinės naftos, taip pat skirtingų gamybinių vandenų atskiedimų, įvairių poliaromatinių angliavandenilių ir alkilfenolių bei sunkiųjų metalų mišinių genotoksinis (pagal mikrobranduolių ir branduolio pumpurų dažnius) bei citotoksinis (pagal fragmentuotų-apoptozinių ir dvibranduolių ląstelių dažnius) poveikis skirtingų rūšių moliuskų ir žuvų ląstelėse. Taikant aktyvaus monitoringo metodą nustatytas Statfjord B ir Ekofisk naftos platformų aplinkos genotoksiškumas ir citotoksiškumas in situ. Šio darbo tyrimų rezultatai suteikė naujos informacijos apie naftos platformų aplinkos geno-citotoksiškumą, taip pat skirtingose platformose išgaunamos žaliavinės naftos, gamybinių vandenų, įvairių alkilfenolių, sunkiųjų metalų mišinių geno-citotoksinį poveikį vandens organizmams. Atlikti tyrimai leido įvertinti genotoksiškumo ir citotoksiškumo dėsningumus skirtingose organizmų grupėse ir jų audiniuose. Eksperimentų metu nustatyta skirtingų žaliavinės naftos, alkilfenolių, sunkiųjų metalų mišinių skirtingų koncentracijų, ekspozijos laiko bei geno-citotoksiškumo indukcijos priklausomybė. Darbe aprašyti metodai gali būti sėkmingai naudojami monitoringe kaip ankstyvieji biožymenys įvairių... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]

Į vandens ekosistemas patenka dideli kiekiai žaliavinės naftos bei naftos išgavimo technologinių procesų metu susidarančių teršalų. Šiame darbe analizuotas Šiaurės jūroje veikiančių naftos platformų (Statfjord B, Oseberg C), Barenco jūroje išgaunamos arktinės bei Lietuvoje esančio Minijos naftos gręžinio žaliavinės naftos, taip pat skirtingų gamybinių vandenų atskiedimų, įvairių poliaromatinių angliavandenilių ir alkilfenolių bei sunkiųjų metalų mišinių genotoksinis (pagal mikrobranduolių ir branduolio pumpurų dažnius) bei citotoksinis (pagal fragmentuotų-apoptozinių ir dvibranduolių ląstelių dažnius) poveikis skirtingų rūšių moliuskų ir žuvų ląstelėse. Taikant aktyvaus monitoringo metodą nustatytas Statfjord B ir Ekofisk naftos platformų aplinkos genotoksiškumas ir citotoksiškumas in situ. Šio darbo tyrimų rezultatai suteikė naujos informacijos apie naftos platformų aplinkos geno-citotoksiškumą, taip pat skirtingose platformose išgaunamos žaliavinės naftos, gamybinių vandenų, įvairių alkilfenolių, sunkiųjų metalų mišinių geno-citotoksinį poveikį vandens organizmams. Atlikti tyrimai leido įvertinti genotoksiškumo ir citotoksiškumo dėsningumus skirtingose organizmų grupėse ir jų audiniuose. Eksperimentų metu nustatyta skirtingų žaliavinės naftos, alkilfenolių, sunkiųjų metalų mišinių skirtingų koncentracijų, ekspozijos laiko bei geno-citotoksiškumo indukcijos priklausomybė. Darbe aprašyti metodai gali būti sėkmingai naudojami monitoringe kaip ankstyvieji biožymenys įvairių... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Aquatic ecosystems are still being polluted with crude oil and other technogenic contaminants. In order to evaluate genotoxic and cytotoxic impact of this pollutants, micronucleus test and analysis of the other nuclear abnormalities is rather frequently being used. The main objective of the study is assessment of genotoxicity and cytotoxicity effects in different fish and bivalves exposed to the crude oil and other technogenic contaminants discharged from the several oil platforms (Statfjord B, Oseberg C, Minija). Environmental genotoxicity and cytotoxicity was evaluated by measuring the frequencies of micronuclei and other nuclear abnormalities in cells of mussels and fish caged in different oil platforms (Ekofisk, Statfjord B) field zones in situ. The study results provide new information about environmental geno-cytotoxicity in oil platforms field zones. The peculiarities of genotoxicity and cytotoxicity in fish and mussels after experimental treatment with crude oil from the North Sea oil platforms and Minija well in Lithuania and other technogenic contaminants (produced water, mixtures of PAHs, alkylphenols and heavy metals) were assessed. There were determined time-tissue-species-concentration-related relationships in induction of nuclear abnormalities in studied fish and mussels. The study results revealed usefulness of genotoxicity endpoints, as well as cytotoxicity endpoints for the evaluation of damage, caused by the contamination discharged from the marine oil... [to full text]

The purpose of my research is to contribute to the field of forecasting from a methodological perspective as well as to the field of crude oil as an application area to test the performance of my methodological contributions and assess their merits. In sum, two main methodological contributions are presented. The first contribution consists of proposing a mathematical programming based approach, commonly referred to as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), as a multidimensional framework for relative performance evaluation of competing forecasting models or methods. As opposed to other performance measurement and evaluation frameworks, DEA allows one to identify the weaknesses of each model, as compared to the best one(s), and suggests ways to improve their overall performance. DEA is a generic framework and as such its implementation for a specific relative performance evaluation exercise requires a number of decisions to be made such as the choice of the units to be assessed, the choice of the relevant inputs and outputs to be used, and the choice of the appropriate models. In order to present and discuss how one might adapt this framework to measure and evaluate the relative performance of competing forecasting models, we first survey and classify the literature on performance criteria and their measures – including statistical tests – commonly used in evaluating and selecting forecasting models or methods. In sum, our classification will serve as a basis for the operationalisation of DEA. Finally, we test DEA performance in evaluating and selecting models to forecast crude oil prices. The second contribution consists of proposing a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) based approach as a multidimensional framework for relative performance evaluation of the competing forecasting models or methods. In order to present and discuss how one might adapt such framework, we first revisit MCDA methodology, propose a revised methodological framework that consists of a sequential decision making process with feedback adjustment mechanisms, and provide guidelines as to how to operationalise it. Finally, we adapt such a methodological framework to address the problem of performance evaluation of competing forecasting models. For illustration purposes, we have chosen the forecasting of crude oil prices as an application area.

Present state of art related to biomass conversion technology so far was found to concentrate on an enzymatic process, coupled with thermal pretreatment on biomass rich in cellulose. Biomass that rich in crude starch is also important in terms of strategic and economic point of view. The main objective of this study is to adopt a new strategy for a single step conversion of a crude starch material into oligosaccharide and glucose utilizing DIC technology. In contrast to existing thermal based pretreatment, DIC technology involves two vacuum cycles; first vacuum cycle was to increase steam accessibility on biomass and to reduce generation of steam condensate thus avoid losing of monosaccharide and hemicelluloses, while second vacuum cycle was to reduce potential thermal degradation of glucose. Distributions of products formed were found to be closely associated with severity of treatment on crude starch material. At lower DIC severity, pretreatment favors the formations of high oligosaccharide composition with small fraction of glucose; while at high DIC severity, pretreatment favors formation of high glucose as a major end product. During an exploratory study to establish the relevant reaction factors; vacuum cycle and moisture content were the two main factors influencing the conversion of crude starch into glucose.DIC starch conversion into glucose was found to be moisture dependent. Both factors were combined together to optimize the other three factors: pressure/temperature, treatment times, and acid concentration. High DIC severity treatment alone could convert nearly 50% of crude starch into glucose. During DIC optimization, an experimental design was developed and tested with DIC pretreatment in order to obtain a second order polynomial mathematical model that was then applied for response surface methodology (RSM). The interaction nature of above factors was examined and was found they depend on DIC treatment severity. Two experimental designs with low and high DIC severity were developed; Low DIC severity (acid: 0.01-0.05 molar, time: 0.5-3.0 min) and High DIC severity (acid: 0.05-0.20 molar, time: 3.0-10.0 min) with similar temperature range (144-165oC) were used. Data mining operation was done on RSM model to develop a kinetic model at both treatment severities. Kinetic data, including rate constant and activation energy were calculated from kinetic models of both severities to compare with actual dilute acidhydrolysis kinetic studies on two DIC treated samples. It was found that activation energy (Ea)for glucose generation at High DIC severity (Ea: 59.44 kJ/mol) was lower than at optimum dilute acid hydrolysis (Ea: 91.30 kJ/mol); while for glucose degradation, Ea was higher with High DIC severity (Ea: 144.12 kJ/mol) if compared to dilute acid hydrolysis (Ea: 45.14 kJ/mol).This indicates that glucose generation with DIC requires less energy while its degradation needs high energy. This combination was required to maximize glucose generation and minimize glucose degradation. Further studies with non-isothermal state during DIC and dilute acid hydrolysis support this finding. In normal polysaccharide conversion to low molecular weight (LMW) oligosaccharides and glucose procedures; two process steps were involved, namely the first process involved thermal pretreatment followed by a second process with dilute acid hydrolysis. In the present work, attempt was made to exclude dilute acid hydrolysis stage in order to establish that DIC process alone is sufficient for total polysaccharides conversion into LMW mainly glucose fraction. Information gathered from quantitative and statistical analysis on (i) exploratory studies, (ii) kinetic models from RSM of DIC process and (iii) kinetic data based on experimental works during dilute acid hydrolysis study; support the assumption that DIC treatment alone is sufficient for the total conversion required.

Present state of art related to biomass conversion technology so far was found to concentrate on an enzymatic process, coupled with thermal pretreatment on biomass rich in cellulose. Biomass that rich in crude starch is also important in terms of strategic and economic point of view. The main objective of this study is to adopt a new strategy for a single step conversion of a crude starch material into oligosaccharide and glucose utilizing DIC technology. In contrast to existing thermal based pretreatment, DIC technology involves two vacuum cycles; first vacuum cycle was to increase steam accessibility on biomass and to reduce generation of steam condensate thus avoid losing of monosaccharide and hemicelluloses, while second vacuum cycle was to reduce potential thermal degradation of glucose. Distributions of products formed were found to be closely associated with severity of treatment on crude starch material. At lower DIC severity, pretreatment favors the formations of high oligosaccharide composition with small fraction of glucose; while at high DIC severity, pretreatment favors formation of high glucose as a major end product. During an exploratory study to establish the relevant reaction factors; vacuum cycle and moisture content were the two main factors influencing the conversion of crude starch into glucose.DIC starch conversion into glucose was found to be moisture dependent. Both factors were combined together to optimize the other three factors: pressure/temperature, treatment times, and acid concentration. High DIC severity treatment alone could convert nearly 50% of crude starch into glucose. During DIC optimization, an experimental design was developed and tested with DIC pretreatment in order to obtain a second order polynomial mathematical model that was then applied for response surface methodology (RSM). The interaction nature of above factors was examined and was found they depend on DIC treatment severity. Two experimental designs with low and high DIC severity were developed; Low DIC severity (acid: 0.01-0.05 molar, time: 0.5-3.0 min) and High DIC severity (acid: 0.05-0.20 molar, time: 3.0-10.0 min) with similar temperature range (144-165oC) were used. Data mining operation was done on RSM model to develop a kinetic model at both treatment severities. Kinetic data, including rate constant and activation energy were calculated from kinetic models of both severities to compare with actual dilute acidhydrolysis kinetic studies on two DIC treated samples. It was found that activation energy (Ea)for glucose generation at High DIC severity (Ea: 59.44 kJ/mol) was lower than at optimum dilute acid hydrolysis (Ea: 91.30 kJ/mol); while for glucose degradation, Ea was higher with High DIC severity (Ea: 144.12 kJ/mol) if compared to dilute acid hydrolysis (Ea: 45.14 kJ/mol).This indicates that glucose generation with DIC requires less energy while its degradation needs high energy. This combination was required to maximize glucose generation and minimize glucose degradation. Further studies with non-isothermal state during DIC and dilute acid hydrolysis support this finding. In normal polysaccharide conversion to low molecular weight (LMW) oligosaccharides and glucose procedures; two process steps were involved, namely the first process involved thermal pretreatment followed by a second process with dilute acid hydrolysis. In the present work, attempt was made to exclude dilute acid hydrolysis stage in order to establish that DIC process alone is sufficient for total polysaccharides conversion into LMW mainly glucose fraction. Information gathered from quantitative and statistical analysis on (i) exploratory studies, (ii) kinetic models from RSM of DIC process and (iii) kinetic data based on experimental works during dilute acid hydrolysis study; support the assumption that DIC treatment alone is sufficient for the total conversion required.

This thesis consists of three essays on risk management in crude oil markets. In the first essay, the valuation of an oil sands project is studied using real options approach. Oil sands production consumes substantial amount of natural gas during extracting and upgrading. Natural gas prices are known to be stochastic and highly volatile which introduces a risk factor that needs to be taken into account. The essay studies the impact of this risk factor on the value of an oil sands project and its optimal operation. The essay takes into account the co-movement between crude oil and natural gas markets and, accordingly, proposes two models: one incorporates a long-run link between the two markets while the other has no such link. The valuation problem is solved using the Least Square Monte Carlo (LSMC) method proposed by Longsta ff and Schwartz (2001) for valuing American options. The valuation results show that incorporating a long-run relationship between the two markets is a very crucial decision in the value of the project and in its optimal operation. The essay shows that ignoring this long-run relationship makes the optimal policy sensitive to the dynamics of natural gas prices. On the other hand, incorporating this long-run relationship makes the dynamics of natural gas price process have a very low impact on valuation and the optimal operating policy. In the second essay, the relationship between the slope of the futures term structure, or the forward curve, and volatility in the crude oil market is investigated using a measure of the slope based on principal component analysis (PCA). The essay begins by reviewing the main theories of the relation between spot and futures prices and considering the implication of each theory on the relation between the slope of the forward curve and volatility. The diagonal VECH model of Bollerslev et al. (1988) was used to analyse the relationship between of the forward curve slope and the variances of the spot and futures prices and the covariance between them. The results show that there is a significant quadratic relationship and that exploiting this relation improves the hedging performance using futures contracts. The third essay attempts to model the spot price process of crude oil using the notion of convenience yield in a regime switching framework. Unlike the existing studies, which assume the convenience yield to have either a constant value or to have a stochastic behaviour with mean reversion to one equilibrium level, the model of this essay extends the Brennan and Schwartz (1985) model to allows for regime switching in the convenience yield along with the other parameters. In the essay, a closed form solution for the futures price is derived. The parameters are estimated using an extension to the Kalman filter proposed by Kim (1994). The regime switching one-factor model of this study does a reasonable job and the transitional probabilities play an important role in shaping the futures term structure implied by the model.

A number of MIR sensing platforms and methods were developed in this research work demonstrating potential applicability of MIR spectroscopy for studying hydrocarbon systems in extreme environments. First of all, the quantitative determination of the diamondoid compound adamantane in organic media utilizing IR-ATR spectroscopy at waveguide surfaces was established. The developed analytical strategy further enabled the successful detection of adamantane in real world crude oil samples. These reported efforts provide a promising outlook for detection and monitoring of diamondoid constituents in naturally occurring crudes and petroleum samples. IR-ATR spectroscopy was further utilized for evaluating and characterizing distribution, variations, and origin of carbonate minerals within sediment formations surrounding a hydrocarbon seep site - MC 118 in the Gulf of Mexico. An analytical model for direct detection of 13C-depleted authigenic carbonates associated with cold seep ecosystems was constructed. Potential applicability of IR-ATR spectroscopy as direct on-ship - and in future in situ - analytical tool for characterizing hydrocarbon seep sites was demonstrated. MIR evanescent field absorption spectroscopy was also utilized to expand the understanding on the role of surfactants during gas hydrate formation at surfaces. This experimental method allowed detailed spectroscopic observations of detergent-related surface processes during SDS mediated gas hydrate formation. The obtained IR data enabled proposing a mechanism by which SDS decreases the induction time for hydrate nucleation, and promotes hydrate formation. Potential of MIR fiberoptic evanescent field spectroscopy for studying surface effects during gas hydrate nucleation and growth was demonstrated. Next, quantifying trace amounts of water content in hexane using MIR evanescent field absorption spectroscopy is presented. The improvement in sensitivity and of limit of detection was obtained by coating an optical fiber with layer of a hydrophilic polymer. The application of the polymer layer has enabled the on-line MIR detection of water in hexane at low ppm levels. These results indicate that the MIR evanescent filed spectroscopy method shows potential for in-situ detection and monitoring of water in industrial oils and petroleum products. Finally, quantification of trace amounts of oil content in water using MIR evanescent field absorption spectroscopy is reported. Unmodified and modified with grafted hydrophobic polymer layer silver halide optical fibers were employed for the measurements. The surface modification of the fiber has enabled the on-line MIR analysis of crude oil in water at the low ppb level. Potential application of MIR fiber-optic evanescent field spectroscopy using polymer modified waveguides toward in-situ low level detection of crude oil in open waters was demonstrated.

Despite the extent of a theoretical framework in financial market studies, a vast majority of the traders, investors and computer scientists have relied only on technical and timeseries data for predicting future prices. So far, the forecasting models have rarely incorporated macro-economic and market fundamentals successfully, especially with short-term predictions ranging less than a month. In this investigation on the predictability of certain financial markets, an attempt has been made to incorporate a un-exampled and encompassing set of parameters into an Artificial Neural Network prediction system. Experiments were carried out on three market instruments ??? namely currency exchange rates, share prices and oil prices. The choice of parameters for inclusion or exclusion, and the time frame adopted for the experimental sets were derived from the market literature. Good directional prediction accuracies were achieved for currency exchange rates and share prices with certain parameters as inputs, which consisted of predicting short-term movements based on past movements. These predictions were better than the results produced by a traditional least square prediction method. The trading strategy developed based on the predictions also achieved a higher percentage of winning trades. No significant predictions were observed for oil prices. These results open up questions in the microstructure of the markets and provide an insight into the inputs required for market forecasting in the corresponding time frame, for future investigation. The study concludes by advocating the use of trend based input parameters and suggests ways to improve neural network forecasting models.