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Essays on exchange rate policies and monetary integration / Essais sur les politiques de change et l’intégration monétaireSangare, Ibrahima 14 December 2015 (has links)
Cette thèse étudie le choix des régimes de change dans des contextes économiques particuliers. La première partie (Chapitres 1 et 2) considère le cas des petits pays dont les dettes sont libellées en monnaies étrangères et celui d’une région constituée de tels petits pays lorsqu’il existe une similitude dans la composition des paniers définissant leurs taux de change effectifs. La deuxième partie de la thèse (Chapitres 3 et 4) se penche sur la considération des différents régimes de change dans le contexte monétaire de trappe à liquidité comparativement à un environnement monétaire traditionnel. En se basant sur une modélisation théorique de type DSGE, l’économétrie bayésienne et des données de panel, la thèse utilise principalement l’analyse des fonctions de réponses, de bien-être et de désalignements monétaires comme critères de comparaison de plusieurs régimes monétaires alternatifs. Les principaux enseignements de cette thèse se résument ainsi. Le change flexible semble être le meilleur régime pour des petites économies ouvertes comme ceux de l’Asie du Sud-Est. Au niveau régional, il est montré le ciblage effectif conduit à une stabilité des taux de change bilatéraux de la région, une sorte de fixité des taux de change qui ressemblerait à une zone monétaire de facto. Dans le contexte monétaire de trappe à liquidité, on trouve que,contrairement à la croyance commune lors la crise de la zone euro, l’union monétaire est plus performante que des politiques nationales de change flexible. Seule une intervention sur le taux de change nominal pourrait permettre au régime de change indépendant de dominer l’union monétaire. A travers une analyse théorique et empirique de l’effet de la trappe à liquidité sur l’ampleur des désalignements monétaires, il est aussi montré que la contrainte ZLB tend à réduire le désalignement monétaire dans une union monétaire comparativement aux politiques nationales de flottement.Cela plaide en faveur du renforcement de l’intégration monétaire au sein d’une union durant la période de trappe à liquidité. / This thesis investigates the choice of exchange rate regimes in specific economic contexts. The first part of this work (Chapters 1 and 2) considers the case of small open economies with foreign-currency denominated debt and that of a region where there is a similarity among trade-weighted currency baskets of countries. The second part of the thesis (Chapters 3 and 4) focuses on the study of exchange rate regimes and monetary integration in a liquidity trap environment relative to “tranquil” times. Based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and Bayesian and Panel data econometrics, the thesis mainly uses the analyses of impulse responses, welfare and currency misalignments as comparison criteria among alternative currency regimes.The key lessons from this work are summarized as follows. For small open economies heavily in debted in foreign currency, like those of Southeast Asia, the flexible exchange is the best regime, followed by intermediate and fixed exchange rate regimes. At the regional level, it is shown that the exchange rate targeting regime leads to a stability of intra-regional bilateral exchange rates, which is a sort of fixity of exchange rates similar to a “de facto currency area”. In the context of a liquidity trap, we find that, contrary to common belief during the Euro area crisis, the currency union welfare dominates the independent floating regime. Only a central bank intervention in the form of a managed float policy could allow the independent floating to outperform the monetary union.Through both the empirical and theoretical analyses of the liquidity trap effects on currency misalignments, it is shown that the ZLB constraint tends to reduce currency misalignments compared with the independent floating policy. This suggests a reinforcement of the monetary integration within a monetary union during the liquidity trap
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匯率低估為可課徵平衡稅之補貼? - 以美國匯率改革相關法案為中心 / Is currency undervaluation a contervailable subsidy? - Focus on U.S. currency exchange rate reform acts吳詩云 Unknown Date (has links)
他國低估匯率造成貿易嚴重扭曲問題近年來越發受到重視,而美國國會為解決主要貿易對手國長期壓抑匯率以提升出口競爭力,導致美國貿易赤字不斷上升之問題,遂陸續提出諸多匯率改革相關法案,期望以具體之制裁手段防止他國持續刻意壓低匯率。
本文先以美國現行法案──1988年匯率與國際經濟政策協調法案作為出發點,探討美國現行法案之不足,以點出美國國會為何認為有於後續改革法案中加入制裁手段之必要,並得出2010年公平貿易貨幣改革法案與2011年貨幣匯率監督改革法案此二法案所提倡之將他國根本性匯率低估或匯率失調情形視為可課徵平衡稅之補貼,為國會多數支持之手段。再以經濟學及國際貿易法學之分析連貫後續討論:匯率低估是否等同對進口課徵關稅並對出口提供補貼?2010年公平貿易貨幣改革法案與2011年貨幣匯率監督改革法案欲將他國根本性匯率低估或匯率失調情形視為可課徵平衡稅之補貼,是否符合WTO有關補貼之規範?前者以Staiger及Sykes兩位學者使用之兩國兩財模型作為討論主軸,後者則以補貼三要件──「財務補助」、「受有利益」及「特定性」加以檢驗。最後皆得出匯率低估僅在特定之情況下始可能構成補貼之結論。
惟在研究過程中,本文發現若僅單憑國際貿易法學之角度去解析匯率低估是否構成補貼,將受法律文字之主觀影響而導致某些謬誤產生。為解決此一問題,本文乃提出以經濟學之分析輔佐國際貿易法裁決之建議,以期能提升國際貿易法裁決之客觀性與公平性。 / The serious trade distortion problem caused by currency undervaluation has given rise to more and more attention. The United States also faces the increasing trade deficit problem caused by some major trading partners that manipulate the value of their currencies in relation to the United States dollar to gain export competitive advantage. The U.S. Congress thus brings up many currency exchange rate reform acts, hoping to use the specific sanction policies to prevent other countries from intentionally depressing exchange rates consistently.
This article starts from the U.S. currency act in force──Exchange Rates and International Economic Policy Coordination Act of 1988 to discover the insufficiency in order to point out why the U.S. Congress consider it necessary to put the sanction policies in follow-up currency reform acts. We then conclude that the policies that brought up by "Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act (2010)" and "Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011" to deem the "fundamentally undervalued currency" or "misaligned currency" as contervailable subsidies come out in favor of the majority of the U.S. Congress. Follow up we use the analysis of the economies and international trade laws to link the following discussion: is the currency undervaluation equals to import tariffs and export subsidies? Are the policies that deem the "fundamentally undervalued currency" or "misaligned currency" as contervailable subsidies consistent with the WTO’s subsidy regulations? The former one is discussed with the "two countries and two goods model" brought up by Staiger and Sykes while the latter one is examined by three elements: "financial contribution", "benefits" and "specific". The answers are both that the currency undervaluation will be contervailable subsidy in some very specific cases.
However, during this research, we find out that if just use the view of international trade laws to analyze whether the currency undervaluation is a contervailable subsidy, we may be affected by the literalism and make mistakes. To solve this problem, we recommend that using the analysis of economies to support the ruling of international trade laws, hoping to increase the objectivity and fairness.
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