WHY SHOULD TURKEY CONTINUE WITH STRONG FISCAL ADJUSTEMENT? LESSONS DERIVED FROM THE PAST AgAR PASLI, Mediha M.S., Department of Economics Supervisor: Associate Prof. Dr. Nadir &Ouml / CAL November 2006, 87 pages Turkey managed to produce a strong fiscal adjustment during the period of 1999-2005 with the annual average of close to 5 percent. Moreover, with the help of this tight fiscal stance, Turkey&rsquo / s public debt has been reduced from the peak of 90.5 percent of GNP in 2001 to 55.8 percent in 2005. Although this is a major achievement both in terms of the size and the speed, the challenge for Turkey is now to continue with fiscal adjustment in order to further reduce its public debt level which still poses a sizeable vulnerability risk for the economy. Therefore, in order to provide an answer to the sustainability question, this thesis first aims to (i) measure the fiscal adjustment in Turkey at the general government level during 1999-2005 period, (ii) analyze sources of fiscal adjustment based on the economic classification, institutional breakdown, and cyclical and structural components. After understanding size and sources of adjustment, the reduction in public debt will be decomposed into its parts including the contribution come from primary surplus. This will shed light on whether Turkey could still rely on those factors for further reduction in public debt in the future.

The current research utilised a modified cyclical model of tracking teachers' efficacy beliefs from their source through to their implementation in teaching strategies. Key inclusions to the model were four factors (personal efficacy, teaching efficacy, classroom management efficacy and outcome efficacy) of teacher efficacy and four contextual considerations (culture load, learning load, language load and cognitive load) in relation to teaching students who have ESL. Data were collected through three studies, ultilising both qualitative methodologies (focus groups, hypothetical teaching scenarios) and a quantitative methodology (researcher-generated survey). Results revealed a two-factor model of teacher efficacy (not a four-factor model) with the two factors being personal efficacy (general teaching abilities) and teaching efficacy (overcoming environmental factors such as home life). Culture load and language load were significant contextual considerations given to teaching students who have ESL. Results of the research suggested that specific teacher training needs to focus on how to adapt curriculum to meet the needs of a diverse group of learners, emphasising in particular why chosen strategies should be used. More training is needed which involves learning how to include parents and other community members as valuable resources in the learning processes of the classroom.

The aim of the thesis is to find possible connections between the financial results of public budgets and the course of the political cycle in the Czech Republic. The analysis for the period of 1993 - 2010 focuses initially on the development of the overall deficit; subsequently the development of selected items of public revenues and expenditures is investigated. A fundamental part of the work is the separation of the cyclical deficit, arising from fluctuations in economic activity and the structural deficit, which is produced through specific measures of government fiscal policy. The results of the analysis indicate that with the approaching elections, there was a greater release of the fiscal policy. During the second half of the electoral cycles have also been reported higher structural deficits. However, the differences are not high enough to be considered as statistically significant.

В работе автором рассмотрены теоретические и методологические положения по вопросу формирования структуры денежного капитала компаний. Проведен анализ основных показателей деятельности АО «Уралэлектромедь», денежных потоков и структуры денежного капитала. На основе выявленных проблем автором предложены рекомендации по оптимизации структуры денежного капитала анализируемой компании. / In the work, the author considers theoretical and methodological provisions on the formation of the structure of the money capital of companies. The analysis of the main performance indicators of JSC “Uralelectromed”, cash flows, and cash capital structure. Based on the identified problems, the author offers recommendations for optimizing the money capital structure of the analyzed company.

The purpose of this investigation is to examine how landscape architecture can create a different kind of threshold between land and water without controlling the edge between the two entities, but merely guiding the natural process of exchange. The design of Oyster Harbor on the Eastern Shore of Virginia is in contrast to normative development of waterfront sites. The hard edge of common practices of waterfront development stands in tension to the more natural evolving edge of many harbors.When creating a dialogue between land and water, the solution has always been to create a sea wall separating the two entities. It becomes the hard dividing line between a solid surface and liquid life. Is there a way to create a threshold that does not divide? How can landscape architecture create an exchange of qualities with land and water? Does the sea wall become the precedent to all concerns of tide and sea usurping lands edge? The edge between land and water is ever changing, so why not celebrate and personify that edge through creating a natural exchange between water and land. In order to create such an exchange, we must first look at the nature of water and land. Water is a free element that is composed of hydrogen and oxygen. It is inclined to motion, reflection, rise and fall. It holds a unique quality independent of man-induced control. Land is a more solid entity created by layers of stone and elements broken down by water. Land capacity is gauged by water, as in the water table. Throughout history, man has maintained a controlling relationship with land. However this is the opposite with water. Man has an inherent fear of water, the representative of both life and death. Though man tries, he cannot control water, he must work within the bounds set by water. How does one understand the evolutionary relationship of land and water without trying to control the elements that allow the relationship to occur? Through research, it is revealed that land actually usurps water through both a push and pull method of tides and water run off from land. Through time and tide, land builds up and infringes upon the natural edge of land and water. The plains move down, the vegetative roll moves forward, the beach ridges reconfigure, and the tidal flats create a shelf that extends out into the ocean floor.This evolution of land continually cycles on moon and sun paths that dictate the change in light, shade, wind, tides, motion, and human cycles. Whether recognizable or not recognizable, these macro and micro environmental cycles become a dance in the realm of landscape architecture. How does one reveal macro and micro environmental aspects through design with human interaction at the edge between land and water? / Master of Landscape Architecture

This dissertation explored the efficacy of the new Basel III banking standards in SACU, grounded on the conjecture that they are not reflective of economies of SACU, but are merely an intensification of Basel II, rather than a substantial break with it. Firstly, loans and assets were tested for causality, since Basel III believes growth in these variables led to securitization. The leverage ratio has been introduced in Basel III as an anti-cyclical buffer. The OLS technique was employed to test for its significance in determining growth in bank assets. SACU feels the impact of debt, with credit is marginally treated in Basel III and is not introspective of the realities of its economies. ANOVA tests using debt, credit and GDP were done to determine a better method of addressing cyclicality. The leverage ratio was insignificant in Namibia, with debt and credit having momentous impacts on GDP in SACU. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

One of the greatest post-conflict problems in South Sudan, which has emerged as a threat to the nation’s security, has been the deadly clashes between tribes during cattle raids. This thesis examines why cattle raiding shifted from a relatively non-violent rite of passage to the primary manifestation of tribal conflict in South Sudan, and whether it is possible to reverse this shift. This thesis proposes a unique approach to the topic by analyzing two underlying causes: insecurity in Jonglei State and a breakdown of traditional governance structures – as well as how their combination has led to the shift. This thesis focuses on a case study of Jonglei State, as it has experienced the largest number of instances of conflict attributed to cattle raiding in South Sudan. Furthermore, current attempts to reduce conflict through increased security and disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration programs have failed as they only address problems of insecurity. I will be comparing two periods of cattle raiding in Jonglei: the current conflict from 2009 until the present, and a historical review of cattle raids focusing on governance of the raids. The review will not cover any specific time period as it aims to identify what aspects of the tradition contributed to a reduced scale of violence before the shift in 2009. Insecurity has caused the increase in clashes, while disconnections to traditions have caused the increase in violence. To address these problems, traditional leadership structures and the de facto rules that structured raids must be re-established in order to produce a long-term solution.

No description available.

A crise mundial de 2008 ressaltou um caráter importante desempenhado pelos Bancos Públicos de Desenvolvimento: a sua política anti-cíclica. Como previsto para instituições financeiras públicas na teoria keynesiana, esses orgãos passam a aumentar o número de empréstimos concedidos e injetar mais dinheiro em momentos de queda geral da atividade econômica. No caso do Brasil, uma parte dos autores defende que a atuação contra-cíclica do BNDES foi benéfica para a manutenção da liquidez na economia durante os períodos de turbulência econômica. Já outros autores defendem que a intervenção Estatal pelo BNDES provoca um efeito crowding-out sobre o crédito, inibindo a formação de um mercado de crédito privado de longo prazo. O Objetivo do trabalho é fazer uma análise objetiva da trajetória do BNDES de 1999 a 2012, procurando discernir se a sua atuação ao longo desse período pode ser efetivamente caracterizada, como defende o governo e a própria instituição, como contra-cíclica. Para efetuar esse trabalho usaremos métodos econométricos de séries temporais a partir de dados de série de variáveis macroeconômicas agregadas para uma análise quantitativa do comportamento do BNDES ao longo desse período. Juntamente com isso, será feita também uma analise qualitativa das séries históricas com o objetivo de qualificar e interpretar economicamente tanto os dados, quanto os resultados obtidos. / The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 underscored an important characteristic played by Public Development Banks: its anti-cyclical policy. As regarded for Public Financial Institutions in Keynesian theory, those institutions increase their volume of loans and inject more money in periods of general economic downturn. In Brazil, some authors argue that the counter- cyclical role of BNDES was beneficial to maintain liquidity in the economy during periods of economic turmoil. On another hand, others authors stand that State intervention by BNDES causes a crowding-out effect on credit, inhibiting the formation of a private market for long-term credit. The goal of this dissertation is to write an objective analysis of the trajectory of BNDES from 1999 to 2012, seeking to discern whether its activity during this period can be effectively characterized, like the government and the institution itself arms, as countercyclical. In order to do that, we are going to use time series econometric methods based on data series of aggregate macroeconomic variables for a quantitative analysis of the BNDES\'s behavior over that period. Along with this, we also made a qualitative analysis of the time series in order to qualify and interpret both economic data and the obtained results.

L’objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier, à l’aide de modèles mathématiques, le mécanisme de régulation qui permet au corps de maintenir une quantité optimale de plaquettes sanguines. Le premier chapitre présente le contexte biologique et mathématique. Dans un second chapitre, un modèle pour la mégacaryopoïèse est introduit qui suppose une régulation ponctuelle par le nombre de plaquettes du taux de différentiation des cellules souches vers la lignée mégacaryocytaire et du nombre de plaquettes produites par mégacaryocyte. Nous montrons que la dynamique de ce modèle est régie par une équation différentielle à retard x'(t) = -?x(t)+f(x(t))g(x(t-t)), et nous obtenons ensuite de nouvelles conditions suffisantes pour la stabilité et l’oscillation des solutions de cette équation. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous analysons un second modèle pour la mégacaryopoïèse qui considère cette fois-ci une régulation opérée en continu uniquement via la vitesse de maturation des mégacaryoblastes. L’analyse de stabilité nécessite d’adapter un cadre pré-existant aux cas où le paramètre de bifurcation n’est pas le retard, et permet de montrer que l’augmentation du taux de mort des mégacaryoblastes conduit à l’apparition de solutions périodiques, en accord avec les observations cliniques de la thrombopénie cyclique amégacaryocytaire. Le dernier chapitre est consacré l’analyse de stabilité d’une équation différentielle à deux retards qui apparait notamment dans le cadre de la mégacaryopoïèse lorsque l’on considère que les plaquettes ont une durée de vie limitée / The object of this thesis is the study, using mathematical models, of the regulation mechanism maintaining an optimal quantity of blood platelets. The first chapter presents the biological and mathematical context of the thesis. In a second chapter, we introduce a model for megakaryopoiesis assuming a regulation by the platelet quantity of both the differentiation rate of stem cells to the platelet cell line and the amount of platelets produced by each megakaryocyte. We show that the dynamic of this model corresponds to a delay differential equation x'(t) = -?x(t) + f(x(t))g(x(t - t)), and we obtain for this equation new sufficient conditions for stability and for the oscillation of solutions. In a third chapter, we analyze a second model for megakaryopoiesis in which the regulation is continuous through the maturation speed of megakaryocyte progenitors. The stability analysis requires to adapt a pre-existing framework to problems where the bifurcation parameter is not the delay, and allows to show that increasing the death rate of megakaryocyte progenitors leads to the onset of periodic solutions, in agreement with clinical observation of amegakaryocytic cyclical thrombocytopenia. The last chapter covers a differential equation with two delays that appears among others in a model of platelet production which considers that platelet death can both age-independent and age-dependent